15-38( 659) 2015. 09.

15

- ,

Executive Summary

1.

2.

3.

4.

14

,
.

(2072-6219, sododuk1@hri.co.kr)

(2072-6220, jphong@hri.co.kr)

Executive Summary

FOMC

1990

2000

1, 2

40

30%

(A

)
.

< >

ii

1.

0~0.25%

(2015

5.1%

2015

1.2%),

3.7%

2015

2%

12

, 1

, 6

(8

12

IMF,

- 1990

1995

1)

2006

1994
2

2004
7

3.00%

6.00%
5

(3.00%p

1.00%

5.25%

(4.25%p

1) 1999~2000 IMF
.

2.

< >
1

(1994.2~1995.2)

(2004.6~2006.7)

(2015.

~)

1993

1994

2003

2004

2014

2015(E)

2.7

4.0

2.8

3.8

2.4

2.5

-0.8

2.5

0.7

2.2

0.8

1.5

0.2

0.9

1.7

2.4

-0.1

0.8

3.0

2.6

2.3

2.7

1.6

0.1

3.3

2.7

2.1

2.2

0.4

0.1

: IMF(WEO, 2015 4, 7).

: 2015IMF20157, 20154.
1.3

0.7

-0.3

0.0

2.7

1.0

(2014

99.4

2015

1~8

54.8

, 2014

7.4%

10%

2015

6%

4%

(2014

~ 2015

-33.6%,

-42.1%)

2)

< >
(/)

120

< >

16

(%)

99.4

100

12

80
60

7.4
6.8

54.8

40

20
0

0
'91 '93 '95 '97 '99 '01 '03 '05 '07 '09 '11 '13 '15

4.4
4.3

'91 '93 '95 '97 '99 '01 '03 '05 '07 '09 '11 '13 '15(E)

: IMF, .
: IMF.
: 3(Brent, Dubai, WTI)
2015 1 8 .

2) , 2015 2, .

1, 2

30%

40

2015

3)

1,010

, GDP

4)

2015

1,018

192

>

<

<

( : , %)

(2004

(2015

257

ASEAN

/GDP

(1994

(2015)

140.9

1,991

27.3

3,747

: IMF,
: 2015

3.9

32.3

8.2

-1.0

1)

- CMI

580

- 2017

10

54

- 2016

10

47

- 2016

10

100

- 2016

10

45

- 2017

192

>

).

: 1)

3) , 2015 6, 3% .
4) .

3.

- 1990

1990

1994

1994

, 3%

1995

, 1995

),

, 6%)

, 1997

5)

1997

1997

12

12

1998

1~7

30.2%

0.1%

1995

11.9%

2015

6.8%

5) , 2013 8, .

6)

< >

6) , 1999, , .

6~10%p

7)

8)

2003~2005

<

2006

9)

-1.04%p

10)

-0.87%p

2006

-0.18%p

< - >
- 1 -

(%p)

- 2 -

(%p)

12

10

2
8

-2

4
93. 2

94. 2

95. 2

96. 2

03. 6

04. 6

05. 6

06. 7

07. 7

: 1)

2)

3)

91

4) 1995

CD

7) - = 91 CD - 3 .
8) 3 1994 2 1995 2 3.55% 6.26% , 91
CD 11.60% 16.65% .
9) 3 2004 6 2006 7 1.50% 5.50% , 91
CD 3.91% 4.63% .
10) 3 2004 6 2006 7 3.26% 5.07% , 3
4.28% 4.89% .

36.1

1.3

(2015

2~7

196.0

62.3

2015

19.7

1.4

2015

(A

1.83%

12

1.21%

<

>

( : )

(93

~94

(94

~95

(03

12

(04

~04

~06

(15

~ 7

(+)36.1

(+)1.3

(+)22.1 (+)140.8

(+)22.0

(-)91.5

(+)196.0 (+)62.3

<

, (-)

).

3.32
2.96

: (+)

A
>
2

1.94
1.83
1.71
1.02
0.80
0.66
0.60

0.58
0.50
(1.21%)
0.44
0.01
0

(%)

: Bloomberg.
: 2015

~8

11)

2014

(2%)

2015

1,400

2016

600

12)

< , /, /, / >
(p, 1973=100)

()

120

/()
/()
(/)
1

160

(/)
1.2

1400

130

1.0

1000

100

0.8

600

70

/() (/)
1800

100

80

60
'91 '93 '95 '97 '99 '01 '03 '05 '07 '09 '11 '13 '15

:
:

0.6
'91 '93 '95 '97 '99 '01 '03 '05 '07 '09 '11 '13 '15

11) 1992 392 2006 7,617 23.6% ,

2007 4.6% 2014 5,083 ( : ).
12) European Central Bank, 2015 1 22, 'Press Release : ECB Announces Expanded Asset
Purchase Programme'.

12%

10%

6~7%

13)

28.2

OPEC

24.3

2000~2001

28.3%

-1.8%

2016

13) ,
, ,
10% ( : , 2015 8, 3
).

10

(3

Brent

28.2

2002

WTI

, Dubai

24.3

2003

27.0

939

46.9

(%)

16

(%)

45

13

< >
()

1,200

()
'90

'95

'00

'05

'10

80

-30
'15

58.440

400

-15

1,010

-5.1

() (/)
120

15

6.8

()
1

800

()

18%

30

10

5,255

>

<

2001

(2014

(2014

2000

-400

-40
'90

'95

'00

'05

'10

'15(E)

: IMF.
: IMF., .
: 1) . : 1) ..
2) 2015 IMF .
2) 3 .
3) 2015
3) 2015
17 .
( : 2015 6)
4) 2015 IMF
( : 2015 4)

11

2015~2016
-

2013

(22.0

(91.5

12

< >

13

4.

2014

2015

41

2015

2,162

894

3,679

2004~2006

70%

1990

14

(2072-6214, j phong@hri .co.k r)

15