TRifeN KINH TE

Sd251, Thang Chin ndm 2011

PHAT

DAU Tl/ CONG CHEN LAN HAY THUC DAY DAU 1\S
KHU Vl/C Tl/ NHAN 6 VIET NAM?
PGS.TS. Sir DlNH THANH*
Ddu tu cbng Id mgt d&n xudt chu yeu de hinh thdnh car sd hg tdng cua nen kinh ti.
Trong qud trinh chuyen ddi kinh ti, Chinh phu VN d& lien tgc thpc thi chinh sdch
md rgng tai khda bdng vigc gia t&ng ddu tU cbng v&i ky vgng ddu tU cong cb tdc dgng
tich cUc din hifu sudt kinh ti tdng the va tgo hifu Ong thdc ddy vdn ddu tU khu vUc
tu. Nhdng n&m gdn d&y, trong nb lpc chdng lgm phdt, Chinh phu VN dang ra sdc
kiim sodt vd cdt gidm ddu tU cbng. Vgy, cdt gidm ddu tU cbng cb dnh hU&ng gi din
ddu tu khu vpc tu nhan? Bai viet tgp trung nghiin cdu mdi quan hf giUa ddu tU cbng
vd ddu tu khu wufc tU nh&n & VN v&i mgc dich ddnh gid ddu tU cbng tgo ra hifU dng
thdc ddy (Crowd in) ddu tU khu vpc tU hay Id tgo ra hifu dng chin ldn (Crowd out)?
Vector
Di thpc hifn nghiin cdu, chung tbi sd dgng mb hinh SVAR (SVAR- Structured
Autoregressor).
Diim mgnh cua mb hinh SVAR chg phep chung ta phan tich tac
dgng cua cdc biin cb tinh cdu true trong mb hinh. Kit qud la, bdi viit phdt hien ddu
tu cbng khbng g&y chen ldn ddu tU khu vUc tU nhan md trdi lgi tgo ra higu Ung thuc
ddy trong ddi hgn, dgc bift la ddu tU tU nhan trong nii&c. TU cdc phat hifn nghien
cdu, bai viit di xudt mgt vai khuyen nghi hodn thifn chinh sdch ddu tU cbng cua VN
trong thdri gian tod.

tdng thue vd vay np trong nflbc se ldm khan

hiem nguon von dau tfl cua khu vflc tfl nhdn. Hai
Dau tfl cbng tao ra hieu flng thuc day hay la, chi tieu chinh phu gia tang dfltfc tai trtf thbng
chen lan dau tfl khu vflfc tfl nhdn? Trflbng phdi qua vay ntf tfl he thong tdi chinh hodc phdt hanh
tan CO dien eho rang mb rpng dau tfl cbng d the trdi phie'u tren thi tnfbng von cb the ddn din ldm
d i thien mbi trflbng dau tfl vd giim chi phi dau giam tin dung cung d p cho khu vflc tfl nhdn va
tfl cua khu vflc tfl nhdn b i n g vibe cai thien ctf sb diy ldi sud't thi trflbng gia tang. Tat c l khbng
ha tang, d i thien c h i t Iflpng vd cung cap nguon khuyin khich diu tfl khu vifc tfl nhdn. Ba la, mbt
nhdn life. Trong dilu kien n i n kinh t l boat dbng s l linh vflc dae quyln danh rieng cho khu vflc
dflbi mflc tilm ndng, sfl gia tdng t i n g cau tfl mb cbng hay doanh nghiep nhd nflbc md b db diu tfl
rpng dau tfl cbng se thuc day dau tfl khu vflc tfl tfl nhdn cb le mang lai hieu qua htfn. O nhflng
nhan (IMF, 2007). Neu ly thuyet ndy dung thi d n i n kinh te dang chuyin doi, vbi viec thflc thi d c
t h i khang dinh diu tfl cbng hb trtf eho dau tfl khu ctf che vd chinh sdch ddnh nhilu flU ddi dio
vtfc tfl nhan. Dieu ndy cb nghia Id diu tfl cbng tao doanh nghiep nhd nflbc cbng them sfl banh
ra hieu flng thuc day doi vbi diu tfl khu vflc tfl trflbng eua ede t i n g cbng ty nhd nflbc dan din
nhdn. Tuy nhien, dau tfl cbng cung cb the gay ra tinh trang 'lefli san", vdn Id trb lflc ehinh gdy ban
hieu flng chen l l n dau tfl khu vifc tfl nhdn. Hieu e h l viec mb rbng vd phdt triln khu vflc kinh te tfl
flng chen l l n cb the xay ra thbng qua ba kenh nhdn.
(IMF, 2007). Mbt la, nen kinh te boat dbng b
mflc toan dung, dau tfl cbng dfltfc tai trtf bing

1. Khung |y thiiydl nghin cihi

Tnfdng Dai hpc Kinh td TP.HCM

NGHIEN cflu & TRAO D6| ^

PHAT T R I ^ N KINH Tfe'

icoNQUK DtviuyMiwi rvw

Sd 251, Thing Chfn ndm 2011

Cb till phdn tich mb'i quan h | gifld diu tfl

cbng vd dau tfl eua kliu vflc tfl nhdn bilu lii|n qua
din xua't ciia hdm sin xud't Cobb-Douglas:
y,-.'!,/.; A: ^-,A:G7,
(D

2. D^nh gM tinh hlnh dtfu W c6ng Wl diu tiT

khu v^c tiT nhAn b^HtH nim 1990 ddn nay

Trong htfn hai th$p ky qua, ting diu tfl xd hbi

dd vd dang dbng vai trb quan trpng dli vbi sfl mcf
Trong db: t Id thbi gian; Y id GDP; A do Iflbng r|ng vd pbdt triln nin kinh t l VN. Cu|e khiing
liibu sud't; L Id tong lao d|ng; K la vb'n kliu vflc tfl hoing tdi chlnh-tiln tO ndm 1997 da ldm cho toe
va KG diu tfl cbng; a. p, j ' Id d c tham sl. Tfl d | tftng trflbng kinh t l d giam xuIng nhflng sau
phfltfng trinli (1) ta thd'y sin phim (diu ra) bibn db tdng b mflc khd cao, dat 8,5% ndm 2005-2007.
cua vb'n dau tfl kliu vife tfl nhdn Id pV, IK,^, vd Ting s l diu tfl eung dd bilu thi khuynh hflbng
sail phim bibn cua ddu tfl cbng id YYJKCI,^^. iflbng tfl; cb sfl giam di nhd't dinh xub'ng d n 32%
GDP vdo ndm 1998-1999 vd kbbi phue manh me
Ne'u nhfl khu vflc tfl nhdn vd chfnh phu tfch luy
sau db, gia tdng lbn A'i'/< GDP ndm 2007. Sau
vln tb'iflU,sin phim bibn bing vbi ldi suit cua
eu|c khflng hodng tdi chinh todn d u ndm 2008,
tflng kliu vflc (Toshiya Hatano, 2010). Gpi lai sud't
ty io vb'n diu tfl duy tri mflc khd cao, xdp 5d gin
kliu vflc tfl nhdn Id q vd ldi sud't kliu vflc cbng /,
407^ GDP, song ting trflbng kinh td lai co
chung ta cb thi vie't lai:
khuynh hflbng giim xuIng b mflc &7f (Hinh 1).
q,=PY,IK,_,.vkr
= Yy,H^G,_,
(2)
Hinh 2 mibu t l ty phin diu tfl khu vflc tfl
Bbi vi hai ldi suit cimg chiu sflc bp cua thi
nhdn (bao glm: diu tfl trflc tie'p nflbc ngodi (FDI)
trflbng nen diflng ta cb thi gii dinh chung di
vd diu tfl tfl nhdn trong nflbc (PI)) giim xuong
chuyin song song vbi nhau, mdc du cb sfl chbnli
khoang 40% vdo cub'i nhflng ndm 90 do phin ldn
lech do lien quan den mflc bu dip rui ro (Risk
tdc dbng cua eu|e khimg hoang tdi chinh-tiln te
Premiums). Gil sfl hai ldi sud't ndy duy tri mflc
ndm 1997 trong khi ty phin dau tfl cbng (GI) gia
chenh lech bkng hing so 9 sao cho q, =9ri, khi
tdng Ien 60%. Khu)Tih hflbng nay phin nao d sif
db chung ta cb dflpc:
dao ngflpc trong nhflng ndm gan ddy, ty phan
K,=ipiey)KG,
(3)
dau tfl khu vflc tfl nhdn cb phan nhinh hon dau tfl
Ne'u 6 bkng 1 tbi san pham bien cua diu tfl cbng. Sfl phuc hii gin day cua diu tfl tfl nhan
cbng bdng san pham bien cua dau tfl khu vflc tfl trong nflbc vd diu tfl nflbc ngodi dd minh chflng
nhdn. Y nghia cua phfltfng trinh (3) Id cb mb'i dilu db. Giai doan 1996-2001, dau tfl tfl nhan
quan he on dinh dai ban gifla san pham bien cua trong nflbc chi chilm 8% GDP, din giai doan
ddu tfl cbng vd dau tfl khu vflc tfl vbi mflc bu dip 2006-2010 gia tdng lbn 14-15'^.. Von FDI dd gia
rui ro cl dinh. Lay logarit liai ve cua phflong tdng nhanh theo sau chflong trinh diuyen doi
trinh thi mli quan he ddi ban gifla diu tfl cbng kinli t l vdo nhflng ndm cubl cua thdp ky 80
vd dau tfl khu vflc tfl nhdn dflpc diln ta dflbi hinh nhung dd giim manh tfl 10% ndm 1997 xuIng
thflc tuyin tfnh. Ddt Co = logP-logy-logQ vd c; Id cbn b''/( trong nhflng ndm sau khung hoing tai
tham s l dflpc flbc Ifltfng vd e, sai so thi phfltfng eliinh-tiln tp, rli sau db phue hii vd duy tri &
mflc In dinh 109'r GDP giai doan 2006-2010. FDI
trinh 2 cb thi vilt:
logKt = Co + cilogKGi Cl
(4) da nli lbn nhfl Id khu vflc ndng dpng cua nen
Tfl phfltfng trinh (4) ta thay, nlu c; dfltfng thi kinh t l trong 10 ndm trd lai ddy. Ty phan san
ham y Id diu tfl d n g tao ra hi^u flng tliuc day Iflpng dbng gbp eiia FDI trong GDP tdng gip doi
dau tfl khu vflc tfl nhdn; ne'u Cj dm thi hdm ^ Id tfl 9% ndm 1997 len 18% ndm 2009, trong khi ty
phan dbng gbp cua khu vflc cbng giim xuIng, tif
dau tfl cbng gay chbn lan diu tfl khu vflc tfl nhdn.
40% ndm 1997 d n 35% ndm 2009.

38

NGHIEN cflu & TRAO OOI

PHAT T B l i w KINH T

L4*iJ!H!l!IJ!ll!l!HI!I.J.lll

Tong ><on d u t u "W/caDP I

Hlnh 1. Tinh hinh tang trfldng kinh td va d i u tfl

cCia VN
Ngudn: Tdng cgc Thb'ng kb

Hinh 2. Tinh hinh d i u tfl cong, d i u tfl tfl nhdn

trong nfldc va FDI cfla VN
Nguon: Ting cgc Thdng kb

ting diu ydu Id dflbng sd, d u , di^n, nflbc, trflbng

hpc, thiiy lpi vd cP sb ha ting nbng thbn. Trong
db, vln diu tfl cbng ddnh cho giao thbng chilm ty
1^ ddng kl, tfl 30% vdo cub'i nhflng ndm 90 tdng
lbn 40% trong nhflng ndm gin ddy. ODA vd phdt
hdnh trdi philu ehinh phu trb thdnh nguin vb'n
quan trpng dl tdi trp eho diu tfl cbng. Thbm nfla,
hp thb'ng ngdn hdng eung da trd thdnh nguin tdi
trtf quan trpng cho blu hit cdc doanh nghibp nhd
nflbc (IMF, 2007). Din giai doan 2006-2010, diu
tfl cbng dflpc d t giim xub'ng cbn 15%-17% GDP
nlikm db'i phb vbi nan lam phdt cao sau cu|e
khung khoing tdi chinh todn d u ndm 2008.
Trong bb'i d n h nhfl vdy, cb khi ndng rdt cao diu
tfl cbng gdy ra sif chbn lln diu tfl khu vflc tfl
nhdn thbng qua kbnh ehuyin tii vb'n d a he
thb'ng tdi chinh. Nhin Bing 2, ta thd'y tin dung
thuln cung d p eho Chinh phu gin nhfl bing
khbng giai doan 2000-2001, nhflng da tdng
nhanh sau db, db'n 4% GDP ndm 2005-2006.
Ding thbi, Chinh phu gia tdng phdt hdnh trdi
philu tdi trp tham hut. Kit qua ting ntf cbng
trong nflbc tdng htfn gap 5 lln, tfl 5% GDP ndm
2000 lbn 18,7% ndm 2006. Htfn nfla, tin dung eho

B i n g 1. T^ phan ddng gop cfla cac khu vi/c kinh te trong GDP cuaVN (%)
1995

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2003

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

Khu v^c cdng

40.18

40,48

40,00

38,74

38,52

38,40

39,08

38,40

37,39

35,93

35,54

35,13

Tu nhan trong ni/6c

53,52

50,45

49,98

49,03

48,20

47,84

46,45

45,61

45,63

46,11

46,03

46,54

6,30

9,07

10,03

12,24

13,28

13,76

14,47

15,99

16,98

17,96

18.43

18,33

FDI

Ngudn: Tdng cue Thdng kb

Mac du, cb sif phuc hii khd nhanh dau tfl eua
khu vflc tfl, song dau tfl khu vflc cbng ciia VN van
chilm gin 50% tong diu tfl xd hbi. Diu tfl cbng
bao glm dau tfl ngan sdch nhd nflbc, tin dimg
nha nflbc (tai trp cdc dif dn tfl phdt hdnh trdi
phieu, khbng tinh vdo trong can ddi ngdn sdch.)
vd diu tfl dfltfc thflc hien bdi d c doanh nghiep
nhd nflbc. Sau cube khiing hoang tai chinh tiln
te nam 1997, dau tfl cbng tang nhanh, dae biet la
trong d c nam 2000-2005, khoing 20% GDP. Lfu
tien dau tfl cbng cua Chinh phii Id tap trung vao
d i thibn ctf sb ha tang vd giam ngheo; ctf sd ha

doanh nghiep nhd nflbc gia tdng suit trong giai

doan 1996-2006, gd'p htfn hai lln, tfl 10% GDP
ndm 1996 len 22% GDP ndm 2006.
Vbi sfl gia tdng hip thu tiln tilt kibm bbi khu
vflc cbng, diu tfl tfl nhdn eb the bi chbn llii. Tuy
nhibn, Bing 2 cho thiy tin dung ngdn hang cung
cap cho khu vflc tfl gia tdng nhanh htfn tin dung
cung elp eho khu vife cbng, tfl 8,9% GDP len
49,2% GDP giai doan 1996 2006. The nhung,
trong thbi gian ndy, cung tiln ciing gia tang
nhanh, tfl 23,8% GDP ndm 1996 len 95,5% GDP
Dilu ndy, cho phep he thing tdi ehinh gia tang

NGHIEN Cflil & TRAO s I l

PHAT TRIEN KINH Tfe'

im

icOHOUC ovnorn<Ni v

Sd 251, T h i n g Chfn ndm 2011

cung flng tin dung cho khu vflc cbng lln khu vflc
tfl. Mflc tilt kibm gia tdng nhanh htfn mflc cung

GDP (Pritha Mitra, 2006). Gia sfl ta cb mb hinh

VAR Ik:

Bing 2. Cd c l u tfn dpng trong nfldc ciia h$ thdng tdi chfnh VN (%GDP)
1997

1996
Tin dgng trong nfldc:
_Ch(nh phu
Doanh nghibp nha nflbc
J<huvpctfl

2005

IS

1998

2006

69,9

75,6

20,3

21,3

22,4

1,6

1,4

2,3

3,9

3A

9,9

9,9

10.5

21,6

22,6

6,9

10

9,6

44,4

49,2

17.4

18,7

26,6

25

74,4

95,5

Tai trp np cbng:

Trong nflbc
Nflbc ngodi
Cung tien (Mj)

23,8

.1

26

28,4

Ngudn.-IMF (2007)

tin dimg nbn khbng tao ra sflc bp gia tdng ldi

sud't, vi the giim rui ro gdy chbn lln tdi chinh
(IMF, 2007).
Nbi tbm lai, dfl lieu khio sdt tren cung khbng
cung d p rb rang lieu ddu tfl cbng cb gay chbn lan
tai chinh db'i vbi khu vflc tfl hay khbng? Thbi
gian qua, sfl lbn manh cua he thb'ng tai cbinh dd
dap flng dfltfc nhu cau tin dung ngay cdng gia
tang d a khu vflc d n g vd khu vflc tfl. Tuy nhien,
van xay ra tinh trang cdc doanb nghiep tfl nhdn
gap phai khb khdn nha't dinh khi tie'p cdn nguon
vb'n cua ngdn hdng do Chinh phu vd doanh
nghiep nhd nflbc cbn vay mfltfn nhieu trbn thi
trflbng tai chinh trong nflbc. Dl xdc dinh mbt
each chic chin hieu flng chbn ldn hay thue day
ddu tfl cbng d n phai flbc Iflpng mflc dp thay dli
vd tfltfng tdc gifld diu tfl cbng vd diu tfl kliu vflc
tfl nhdn trong nhflng ndm qua.

C{L)X,=u,
(5)
Trong db, C(L) Id ma trdn cua da Uiflc vbi dp
tre thfl bdc gibi ban, L la todn tfl tre, X, la dc
biln quan tdm (X, = [logGI, logGDP, logPI.
logFDI] vd u, la vbc ttf cua d c sd dfl. Trong mo
liinh VAR, gid sfl d c s l dfl d tfltfng quan vbi
nhau. Kit qui Id, mbt cu sdc db'i vbi mpt biln ndo
db se tdc dbng dong thbi Ibn edc bi& cbn lai.
Ham y Id chung ta khbng thi Ifltfe trich hieu flng
cu soc db'i vbi mpt biln ndo db, chdng ban bien
diu tfl cbng len d c bien diu tfl khu vflC tfl nhan.
Mb hinh SVAR xdc dinh quan h^ gifld d c phan
dfl cua mb liinh VAR (cu sdc khbng mong dpi) vd
cdc cu sic d u true (eu sdc d c biln dbc lap hay
ngoai sinli vd khbng cb quan hp vbi nhau). Tinh
ndng d|iig cua cdc bidn dfltfc khdm phd theo ca'u
true Clia VAR dp dung cho mb hinli SVAR nhfl
sau (IMF. 2007):

3. M6 hlnh nghKn cihi

.1

.I

De khdm phd Upu dau tfl cbng gay hibu Cftig

chen lan hay thuc day diu tfl khu vflc tfl nhdn,
chung tbi dp dung khubn kho mb binh tfl hoi quy
vec ttf d u true SVAR ddi vbi GDP; diu tfl cbng
(GI); dau tfl khu vflc tfl, glm diu tfl tfl nhdn trong
nflbc (PI) vd FDI. tfng dung mb hinh SVAR Id
can thiet bbi vi mb hinh VAR (Vector
Autoregressor) khbng cho phbp chung ta ddnh
gia sfl tdc dbng dau tfl cbng len diu tfl tfl nhdn vd

40

NGHIEN cflu & TRAO DOI

ii)i,=a

.1

t-V/f ' ( ' / , . , + v ^ ; ' / - / J / , , t ^ , )

I

-I

..I

//,_,+)r^'*(i7)/',_. HI,'
.1

Pl,=a'' . X/'"G/,-, +i,x'''FDI,., +Y^y'PI,., ^^(P'-'GDP,., +i/,

I

..I

..I

..I

(ii>i',=a +X/J '"(,7,., +x/;"'''/>/,-, +Y.'^:'"'''I,-. +S*;'"'(''/',.,-"';""

P H A T TRIEN KINH TE
Sd251, Thing Chfn ndm 2011

Phfltfng phap SVAR xac dinh mb'i quan hb

gitta d c p h i n dfl ciia VAR vd cfl soc cb tinh cd'u
true dfltfc tbm t i t theo phfltfng trinli dflbi day:
Ae,= Bu,
(6)

cbng bo trbn website cua Ting cue Thb'ng ke

(Bang 3). Dfla vdo dfl li^u nay, trong mb hinh
chung tbi Id'y logarit td't ca edc biln GDP, GI, PI
vd FDI d l xdc dinh mflc biln tliien.

Trong db, Ut Id cdc vbc ttf cu sic eb tinh cd'u

true, A vd fl Id ma tran thie't lap mb'i quan lib
gifla edc cu soc cb tinh cd'u true vd edc phan dfl
cua mb hinh VAR (e,). He thing ndy dfltfc xdc
dinh bkng vibe dp ddt edc gibi ban lbn d c ye'u t l
A va B (difa vdo cdc ly tliuylt kinh tl) vd d n
phai flbc Ifltfng. Tfl phfltfng trinh (6), mb'i quern lib
gitta d c p h i n dfl trong mb hinb VAR va d c cu
sic cd'u true trong mb hinh SVAR dflpc xac dinh
cu t h i nhfl sau:

Bing 3. Du' lipu de chay m6 hinh

e'/'=C{\)ul''

(7)
.ini

<"'=C(2K"'+C(3K
./'/
e!'' =C(4K"'' +C(5)e/"' +C(6K
e';'"'= C(7)e'," +C(8H"" +Ci9)e',''

(8)
(9)

+C(10)M;''"'

(10)

Phuong trinh (7) phan anh mli quan he bo

sung gitta GI vd FDI. Diu tfl cbng tao ra mbi
trflbng hap dan thu hut FDI, trong khi trien vpng
FDI tao ra dbng life cho Chinh phii gia tang dau
tfl cbng. Vi the, mbt cu soc dbc lap trong GI
(chang ban Chinh phu gia tang GD cb le ky vpng
tdc dbng den FDI. Tfltfng tfl, b phfltfng trinh 8,
mbt cu soc dbc lap trong FDI (nhfl gia tdng FDI)
cb le ky vpng tac dbng den GI. Phfltfng trinh 9
dfla vao mb'i quan he gifla PI va GI vd gitta PI va
FDI. PI cb t h i phan flhg dfltfng db'i vbi cu soc dbc
lap dfltfng trong GI (chang ban, Chinh phu gia
tang GI cb le thu hut PI) hoac cb the phan flng
dm, trong trflbng htfp tao sfl chen laii. Hieu flng
trdn (Spillover effects) cua FDI len PI dfltfc dfla
vdo de xem xet eu soc tong the db'i vbi FDI len
PI. Cudi eung, bang dinh nghia GDP, mpt cu sic
tong the trong GDP la ham sd eiia GI, PI vd FDI
(phfltfng trinh 10).

4. Dff Mu, iTdc liTigmg va kH qui nghiin cihi

4.1 DU lieu nghiin
cdu
De thflc hien flbc Ifltfng, chung tbi lay dtt lieu
hdng ndm v l GDP, GI, PI vd FDI tfl nam 1990
den nam 2010, dtfn vi tinb ty le %. Dfl Ueu dfltfc
khai thac vd thu thap tfl nguon dtt Ueu da dfltfc

Ndm

GDP
(%)

GI/GDP
(%)

PI/GDP
(%)

FDI/GDP
(%)

1990

0,05094

0,06075

0,07035

0,01890

1991

0,05809

0,05871

0,08383

0,02511

1992

0,08700

0,06845

0,08546

0,05974

1993

0,08078

0,11865

0,09270

0,07573

1994

0,08834

0,10290

0,09581

0,09163

1995

0,09541

0,13302

0,08738

0,09612

1996

0,09340

0,15768

0,08014

0,08345

1997

0,08152

0,17081

0,07812

0,09661

1998

0,05765

0,18014

0,07701

0,06731

1999

0,04774

0,19242

0,07887

0,05669

2000

0,06787

0,20246

0,07833

0,06152

2000

0,06787

0,20246

0,07833

0,06152

2001

0,06895

0,21187

0,08002

0,06236

2002

0,07080

0,21416

0,09447

0,06495

2003

0,07341

0,20631

0,12126

0,06243

2004

0,07790

0,19548

0,15344

0,05780

2005

0,08442

0,19260

0,15538

0,06089

2006

0,08229

0,18999

0,15807

0,06734

2007

0,08457

0,17311

0,17898

0,11314

2008

0,06311

0,14076

0,14615

0,12839

2009

0,05324

0,17338

0,14478

0,10925

2010

0,06700

0,15962

0,15114

0,10825

Ngudn: Tong cgc Thong ke

4.2 Kiem dfnh tinh ddng vd dg tre cua mb
hinh
Thflc hibn k i l m dinh mb hinh SVAR, yeu clu
phai tie'n hanh kiem dinh nghiem dtfn vi hoac
kiem dinh tinh difng (Stationary test) cua d c
chubi thbi gian. Kilm dinh Augmented DickeyFuUer (ADF) dfltfc triln khai de kiem dinh chubi
difng cho tat d d c bie'n vbi gia tliuylt:

NGHIEN cflu & TRAO OOl

41

PHAT TRIEN KINH Tfe'

ICCNOMC O I V t > M N I WWfilf

Sd 251. T h i n g Chfn ndm 2011

d | tri CLia mb hinh. Sau khi sfl dung d c tibu ehi

AIC (Akaike Information Criterion), SC (Schwarz
Information Criterion), HQ (Hannan-Quinn
Information Criterion), kit qui cho thiy d? tre
tl'iflUdfltfc Ifla chpn cho mb hinh SVAR Id 2.
4.3 Kit qud nghiin ctiu
Dfla vko cdc chuli dfl li|u dflng: d(dlogGI),
logFDI, dlogl'I, logGDP, ehung tbi tiln hdnh
chay mb hinh VAR trbn Eviews? vd sau db thifc
hiOn flbc Ifltfng edc tham s l chu ylu trong mb
liinli SVAR. Kit qui flbc Ifltfng dflpc mb t l trong
Bing 5 dflbi ddy:

/ / : p = 0 => kit lu^n: cb nglii^m dtfn vi bode

chuoi khbng dflng.
//, : p<0 => kit lu^n: chuli khbng eb nghi|m
dtfn vi hodc chuli dflng.
Tibu dli quan trpng db la nou thing kb tstatistic (dfltfc tinh todn trong mb liinh) db'i vbi
p cb gid tri dm lbn htfn 57r gid tri tra bing DF
trong kilm dinh Augmented Dickey-Fuller thi gia
thuylt Ho bi bdc bb hodc biln cb tfnh dflng bode
khbng eb nglii^m dbn vi. Ngflpc lai thi biln cb
nghibm dtfn vi. Kit qui kilm dinh dfltfc thi hi^n
trong Bing 4.

Bing 4. Kdt qui kilm djnh ADF

Bien
loqGDP
loqFDI
iOflPI
logGI
dIogPI
dIoqGI
d(dlogGI)

1
0
1
0
0
4
2

Kdt lu|n

5% gia trj tra bdng

t- statistic ddi v

DO tri

-3,450
-3,330
:0,787
-2,500
.-3,060
-2,500
-4,400

l_

-3,00 Khbng cb n g h i ^ dtfn yi

-3,00^ Khbng ob nghibm dpnyj
- 3 ^ Cb nghiem dPn vj
-3,00 Cb nghifm dPn vj
-3,00. Khbng d nghipm dPnvi
-3,00 Cb nghifm dPn v|
-3,00 Khbnq cb nghipm dtfn vj

Bing 5. Ket qua flde Iflpng trong mo hlnh SVAR

Hf so hoi quy
. C ^ Gl -> FDI
C(4) Gl -> PI
C(5) FDI ->PI
C(7) GI->GDP
_CM FDI ->GDP
_CM PI->GDP

_L348414
1,412444
-0,237501

-0,933317
0.548043

Sai so chuan
0,71JB334^
0.430131
0,132174
0.823345
0.215885

0.307661

Bang 4 eho thay logFDI vd logGI cb tinh dflng

b mflc y nghia 5%, Cbn d c biln logPI ditog tai
sai phan bdc 1 vd biln logGI dimg tai sai phdn
bdc 2 b mflc y nghia 5%. Do vdy, sai phdn b^c 1
va bdc 2 cua cdc biln ndy dfltfc sfl dung trong mb
binh SVAR. Sau khi kilm dinh nghibm dtfn vi,
chung tbi tiln hdnh kilm tra dilu k i ^ In dinh
cua mb hinh VAR; kit qui eho thiy mb hinh
VAR ddp fllig dilu kibn In dinh, khbng eb
nghiem ndo nkm ngodi vbng trbn dtfn vi. Kilm
dinh dong lien kit theo phfltfng phdp Johasen
cho thay d c bien trong mb hinh eb lien kit vbi <f
nghia thong ke 5%. Bflbc tiep theo Id kiem dinh

42

NGHIEN cflu & TRAO sdl

0.363154

z-statistic
1.877141
3^3754

-1.796881
-1,133568
2,538583
0.847192

Prob.

AQ605
0.0010
0.0724
0.2570
0.0111

0,3969

Kit qui Bing 5 vbi hp s l tfltfng quan 1,34 d

mflc y nghia thb'ng kb 10% eho thay dflbng nhfl
diu tfl cbng tao ra hifu flng "thuc day" FDI. Dau
tfl cbng vl ctf sb ha ting vd vb'n con ngiM dd cb
sfl dbng gbp bl sung nhd't dinh dli vbi FDI. Xet
vl hdm phan flng xung life (Impulse Response
Function), ta thiy eu sdc dfltfng d a GI tdc dbng
dflbng lbn FDI trong khoang thbi gian 1-2 ndm
(Hinh 3), tnfbc khi hifu flng thu hep dan dan.
Kdt qui ndy hdm y cb le GI chi bl sung cho FDI
trong ngin ban vd trung ban.

PHAT TRIEN KINH TE

Sd251, Thdng Chfn ndm 2011

tCOWOMC[L0W.MlWW

Response of LOGFDI to DGOI

Response of DPI to LOGI Dl

Hlnh 3. Phin flng FDI ddi vdi Gl

Kit qui flbc Ifltfng dio tliay vbi lib sl tfltfng

quan 1,41 d mflc "y nghia thing kb 5''/( cb le iing
hb manh ly thuye't diu tfl cbng tao ra liif u flng
thuc day diu tfl tfl nhdn trong nflbc. Ihiili 4 cho
thay khi ndng tien triln vl mb'i quan hf gifld hai
biln nay. Hdm phin flng xung life eua PI db'i vbi
eu sic GI giim xub'ng trong 1,5-2 ndm dau, sau
db din dan hdm phin flng xung life vdn dbng
theo xu hubng tdng len. Dilu nay eb n ^ i a la GI
gdy chen lan PI trong ngin ban nhflng tao ra
hifu flng thue day PI trong dai ban. Xbt quan he
gifld PI vd FDI, ta thay phan flng cua PI db'i vbi
cu sdc FDI la am vbi he s l tfltfng quan -0,23 vd y
nghia thdng ke 10%. HTmh 5 minh hpa hifu flng
trdn dm d a FDI ddi vbi PI trong khoang thbi
gian 1,5-2 ndm. Mac du, sau db ham phan flng
xung life ciia PI dan dan cb xu hflbng tang len,
song vdn cbn b dflbi mflc khbng. Kit qua ndy
khde vbi kit luan d a Tuf Anh vd nhbm nghien
cflu (2006) cho rkng FDI cb tdc dbng trdn tich cflc
vbi d e doanh nghifp nhb vd vfla trong nflbc.
Response of DPI to DGOI

Hlnh 4. Phin flng PI ddi vdi Gl

10

Hlnh 5. Phin flng PI ddi vdi FDI

Phan fllig eua GDP db'i vbi eu soc khbng mong

dpi trong GI (-0,93) vd PI (0,3) khbng f nghia
thb'ng kb. Nghia la eu sb'e khbng mong dpi db'i vbi
GDP khbng di chuyin khbng dong thbi vbi cu soc
klibng mong dpi db'i vbi PI vd GI. Rieng phan
flng cua GDP db'i vbi cu soc khbng mong dpi
trong FDI ( 0,54) Id eb y nghia thong ke 5%.
5. Kdl luin va m6t vai khuydn nghf chinh
sach
(1) Viec nghien cflu mli quan he gifld dau tfl
cbng vd dau tfl tfl nhdn dd dfltfc nhieu nhd kinli
te quan tdm. Mbt vdi cbng trinh nghien cflu gan
day vl van de chen la'n khu vflc tfl nhan khi
chinh phu vay de tdi trp dau tfl cbng tf nhflng nin
kinh te dang phdt trien nhfl nghien cflu eua
Khan vd cbng sfl (2009) ve trflbng hpp cua
Pakistan hay nghien cflu cua Majumder (2007)
ve trflbng hpp Bangladesh deu cho tliay khbng cb
hifn tfltfng vay ntf eua ehinh phu gdy dien lan
md trdi lai tao ra hifu flng tliu hut sfl tham gia
diu tfl eua khu vflc tfl nhdn; Ngliien cflu cua
Mitra (2006) vl trflbng hop cua An Dp cho thay
cb hifu flng chen lim nhe trong ngan ban nhflng
dau tfl cua chinh phu lai cb tdc dbng tich cflc len
nin kinh te trong dai ban.
O VN, trong vbng 20 ndm qua, diu tfl cbng da
hap thu mbt Iflpng lbn tilt kifm trong nflbc, dfla
mflc dau tfl eua khu vifc nay chiem gan 50% ting

NGHIEN c f l u & TRAO DOI

43

PHAT T R i i N KINH Tfe'

Sd 251, Thing Chfn ndm 2011

diu tfl xd hfi. Trong pham vi dtt lifu nghibn eflU,

kit qui flbc Ifltfng cho thd'y khbng chic chin dl
khing dinh dau tfl cbng gdy ra sfl dibn lln diu tfl
khu vflc tfl nhdn. Nbi kbdc di, diu tfl cbng cb le
da tao ra hifu flng thuc diy FDI it ra trong ngin
han vd db'i vbi PI trong ddi ban. Tfl kit qui ndy
cb till rut ra ham y cho chinh sdch la: (i) sfl phdt
triln hf thb'ng tdi chinh sb cb tdc dfng tich cflc
nhit dinh trong vifc huy dfng vb'n, ddp flng nhu
cau tin dung cho el hai kliu vflc vd khic phuc
hifu flng chbn lln eua diu tfl cbng gdy ra cho khu
vflc tfl; vd (ii) tdng eflbng diu tfl cbng, giai quylt
tb't van dl tic nghen ctf sb ha ting eb thi tao ra
mbi trflbng thudn ltfi dl gia tdng thu hut vb'n diu
tfl khu vflc tfl nhdn trong vd ngodi nflbc trong ddi
ban.
(2) Kit qua thflc nghiem minh chflng phan
flng cua GDP vbi cu sb'e diu tfl cbng vd diu tfl tfl
nhdn trong nflbc khbng d y nghia thb'ng ke. Dilu
nay hdm y: Vifc d t giim diu tfl cbng de kilm
sodt tinh hinh lam phdt eao hifn nay eb le khbng
gay anh hflbng nhieu de'n tie dp tdng trflbng kinh
te vd quan trpng htfn Chinh phu can doi mbi cdn
ban cbinh saeh dau tfl cbng tao nen ting cho sfl
phdt trien bin vttng trong ddi han. Trflbc bet,
can thay doi dinh hflbng muc tieu chflc ndng cua
Nhd nflbc (flU tien In dinh vi mb), trbn ctf sb db
thay doi d c hflbng diu tfl cbngflUtien, klibng flU
tien dau tfl kinh doanh, tap trung flU tien diu tfl
kit d u ha ting, phdt triln the che vd phdt triln
ndng lflc. Ding thbi, ldm rb chflc ndng cua Nhd
nflbc, tfl db lam rb chflc ndng cua diu tfl tfl ngan
sdch vd chi dau tfl cbng (cb d phin chi tin dung
va doanh nghifp nhd nflbc). Nhd nflbc ldm chflc
ndng quan tri qudc gia, khbng phli ldm kinh
doanh trflc tilp trong nin kinh te thi trflbng.
Nhanh chbng giim vd di tbi xba bb ehi tieu cbng
eho muc tieu kinh doanh thuan tuy. Db'i vbi tin
dung diu tfl nhd nflbc ehu ylu do vay vd cho vay
lai, thi nbn tap trung vdo vai trb tao "Vln mli",
ddnh vln dau tfl cbng cho edc muc tieu xa hfi vd
mbt sd linh vflc quan trpng ma khu vflc tfl nhdn

44

NGHIEN cflu & TRAO Q6\

khbng ldm. Hai Id, cin dli mbi ctf chl quin ly tdi
chfnh d c doanh nghifp nhd nflbc, xba bb edc ddc
quyln, ddc ltfi db'i vbi khu vflc kinh te nhd nflbc.
Dli vbi doanh nghifp nhd nflbc cb </ nghia "dng
ieh", phi ltfi n h u ^ thi cb thi h i trp mft phin,
nhd't id giai doan khdi diu; nlu doanh n^ifp
nhd nflbc cb muc tibu kinli doanh thi phli vay
thfltfng mai nhfl mpi thdnh phin khde. Ba Id, cin
xdy dufng ctf ehl quin 1^ chdt ebb vife huy dfng
vd sfl dung vb'n diu tfl cbng, eb sfl gidm sdt ciia
cfng ding, cua d e t l chflc khoa hpe, cb chuybn
mbn sdu db'i vbi cdc dfl dn quan trpng, ngay tfl
diu db'n culi vd vbi du tfl Ufu eung nhfl thim
quyln tilp cdn d e thbng tin cb libn quan, dilu
tra thife dia, gidm sdt thi cbng... dl tham gia Uf
vd'n, phan bifn vd gidm djnh xd hfi. Bin Id, tdp
trung diu tfl vb'n ngdn sdch eb trpng tdm, trpng
dilm, khbng ddn trai, ehi quylt dinh diu tfl khi
edn db'i dflpc nguin vb'n. Vln ngdn sdch nhd nfldc
flU tibn tap trung vdo hodn thifn hf thing ha
tang tai cdc vung trpng diem nhim tao sfl phat
trien hifu qui, ding bb, giam thieu chenh Ifch va
khoang d d i gifla d c vung. Vd cudi cung, can day
manh hinh tliflc htfp tac cbng tfl (PPP) trong vifc
thflc hifn dau tfl phdt trien ctf stf ha ting. Xdy
dflng vd hodn thifn ctf chl hpp tdc PPP dam bao
muc tieu phdt triln vd hai ben cimg eb lpi. Tao
dflng Ctf ehl flu ddi trong vifc thu but nguin lUt
dl tfl nhdn trong nflbc tham gia manh htfn vao
vifc diu tfl ctf so ha ting.
(3) Kit qui thflc nghifm cho thiy, FDI cb tac
dfng tieh cflc tbi GDP vbi hf so tfltfng quan 0,54
b mflc y nghia thing ke 5%, nhflng dflbng nhfl lai
cb tdc dfng trdn dm db'i vbi PI d mflc y n ^ a
thb'ng kb 10%. Vbi kit qui nay, dl FDI dbng gbp
nhilu hem vdo tdng trflbng kinh te cung nhfl tb'i
da hba lpi ieh md FDI cb the mang lai, d n phai
tiep cdn bao qudt, hdi hba hpn trong xdy dflng
ehinh sdch thu hut diu tfl trflc tiep nflbc ngodi.
Chinli sddi FDI trong giai doan tbi nen ding
thbi ehu trpng tbi tdc dfng trdn "am" md FDI gay
ra dli vbi diu tfl tfl nhan trong nflbc. Nghia la.

P H A T T R I E N KINH TE
S d 2 5 1 , T h a n g Chfn ndm 2011

tcowoMc otvtiOfMtm irtvKw

Chinh phu d n day manh cbinb saeh phdt triln

ede doanh nghifp vfla vd nhb, dong thbi cb bifn
phap hi trtf cac doanh nghifp ndy nhkm tao mb'i
libn kit sin xud't vbi cdc doanli nghifp FDI trong
tifng nhbm ngdnh; hb trtf cdc doanli nghifp vfla
vd nhb tdng ndng lflc dl eb the tib'p thu cbng
nghf mbi vd chuyen giao cbng nghf tfl db'i tdc
Uen kit sin xud't. Ding tlibi, Cliinli phu d n tdng
ndng lflc vl ngbien cflu vd phdt triln (R&D) eua
doanh nghifp trong nflbc dl tdng kill ndng hap
thu cbng nghf mbi vd tliuc diy diuyln giao cbng
nghf thbng qua nhilu bifn phdp nhfl ho trtf ddo
tao d n bb R&D eua doanh nghibp bkng edeh tdi
trp d n g eho d e ehflofng trinh trao dli chuybn gia
gifld d e vifn nghibn cflu, trflbng dai hpc, vd
doanh nghifp; thite hifn ede chfltfng trinh nghien
cflu (ngdnh, san phim mbi) eb sfl tham gia vd
ding tdi trfl ciia d c ben eung hflbng lpi*
TAI L l | U THAM KHAO
1.

International

Monetary

Fund

(2007), Vietnam:

Selected Issues. IMF Country Report No. 07/385.

2. Ktian, Rana Ejaz Ali and Gill, Abid Rastiid (2009),
Crowding Out E_ect of Public Borrowing: A Case of
Pakistan, The Islamia University of Bahawalpur. Pakistan,
January 2009.
3. Majumder (2007). Does Public Borrowing Crowd-out
Private Investment? The Bangladesh Evidence, Policy
Analysis Unit (PAU). Researcti Department. Bangladesh
Bank. Working Paper Series: WP 0708. March 2007.
4. Pritha Mitra (2006). Has Government Investment
Crowded

Out

Private

Investment

in

India?,

www.aeaweb.org/annuaLmtg_papers/..70108_1015._0102.
pdf.
5. Website cua T i n g cpc Thb'ng k: www.gso.gov.vn.
6. Toshiya Hatano (2010), "Crowding-in Effect of Public
Investment on

Private

Investment", Policy

Research

Institute, Ministry of Finance. Japan. Public Policy Review,

Vol.6. No. I.February 2010.
7. Tue Anh Nguyin t h j va nhbm nghibn cflu (2006).
Tac dgng cCia diu tU trUc ti^ nUdc ngoai tdi tang triing kinh
t^d VN, Duan SIDA: Ndng cao nang lflc nghibn cflu chi'nh
sach d l thflc hifn chien Iflpc phat triln kinh tl-xa hoi ciia
VN thbi ky 2001-2010.

NGHliN cflu & TRAO DOI

45