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Hype Cycle for ICT in India 2016

Something interesting:
Each wave is successively bigger than the
previous onemore users, more spending and
generally more risk.
Old companies go away and new companies are
ushered in with each new wave. The BUNCH,
Compaq and now Sun Microsystems have all
basically disappeared as IT vendors.
The names listed for each wave could be replaced
by company names that were leaders of their
respective eras, namely IBM, Microsoft (and Intel),
Cisco and now Google.
?????Disruptive Innovation

Waves of innovation in IT
thoughts ?

Technology as a Competitive
Proprietary Technology Defined as a
technology that can be owned actually or
effectively by one company.Example:
Pharmaceutical Company: Patent on
Infrastructural Technology Defined as
technology that can not be protected and
in contrast to proprietary technology is
worth more to the economy as a whole
when shared. Example: Railroad or
IT is considered an infrastructural

Vanishing Advantage - The Phases Of

Infrastructural Technology Buildout
Early Phase advantage takes
the form of proprietary technology
and enable new more efficient
operating methods.
Market Changes broad market
changes occur due to infrastructural
The Trap advantages are

Commoditization of IT

Standardization ,homogenization, highly replicable, subject

to rapid price deflation, delivery channel is perfect, more
value in numbers

The end of the IT build-out phase?

Power is outstripping business needs?
Technology is affordable and available?
Capacity has caught up with demand?
IT vendors are repositioning themselves as commodity
suppliers or utilities ?
Investment bubble has burst?

From Offense to Defense

When a resource becomes essential to competition but

inconsequential to strategy, the risks it creates become
more important than the advantages it provides
- Nicholas G. Carr

Greatest IT Risk?
As costs fall, new capabilities rise and business increases reliance
on IT companies continue to invest resources towards large
investments from big hardware and software suppliers.
Vast majority of business PCs rely on a few simple applications.
Applications are technologically mature.
Applications require only a fraction of computing power.
Corporate networks are storing invaluable information.

Simplify and Systemize

Before You Computerize
Manufacturer of Helicopter Engines Problem with
Controlling Inventory
Solution: Purchased Expensive Automated Equipment
Result: Created More Problems than it Solved

After reflecting on its predicament, company managers

commented that they would have been better off had they
improved the efficiency of the operations by eliminating
inventory in the first place and not simply thrown
technology at the problem.

New Rules for IT

Rigorously evaluate expected returns from IT investments.
Negotiate contracts ensuring long-term usefulness of your investment.
Assess data storage (eliminate waste and non-relevant information).
The longer you wait to make an IT purchase, the more youll get
for your money.
Wait for standards and best practices to solidify.
Focus IT resources on preparing for disruptions and proprietary control.

IT is an Infrastructural Technology (no longer proprietary)
Vanishing Advantage for Corporate Sustainability
IT Has Become A Commodity
Standardization/Highly Replicable
Delivery Channel
Rapid Price Deflation
Focus IT Investments on Risk more than Strategic Advantages.
Greatest IT Risk is Overspending.
To Avoid Overinvesting in IT:
Spend Less
Follow, Dont Lead
Focus on Risks, Not Opportunities

How Enterprise Architects Put Digital Disruptions Into Action

(Gartner 2016)

Hype Cycle for Digital Workplace 2016

A valid business idea

A valid business idea does not to be innovative but it has to be

It has to aim at satisfying certain unique need,
However uniqueness can be defined in a number of ways.
A handy way to identify/search for distinction is to apply the 4 P
model framework.


Getting uniqueness

In a absence of breakthrough innovation.

Through distribution:
geographical localization,
Through a product differentiation:
adding a service,
product bounding.
Through an effective promotion:
tailored communication,
Through a price:
innovative pricing schemes (have of the price paid ex
post if customers needs satisfied),
low pricing (if build on something durable)


Creating ideas some checks (1)

The key question: Why this idea has not been marketed yet?
How many people would be interested in a product/service resulting
from the idea?
Why people should pay for it?
Why this idea has not been marketed yet? Or may it had been and
Why it is to be me to succeed with this idea?


Creating ideas some checks (2)

Distinguish between the attention wave and the actual value

Look for a gap between interest announced and real steps
undertaken to board on new services/products
Remember: distinguishing hype from reality is really challenging
Swanson Burton E.: The Managers Guide to IT Innovation Waves. MIT
Sloan Management Review, vol. 53 no 2 Boston