TALLER No.

1 PRONSTICOS

La directora de trfico de una empresa de fabricacin de cortadoras de csped de tamao medio

reuni en la siguiente tabla los datos de los envos de los ltimos diez aos:
AO

CDIGO

GRUPO

ENE

FEB

MAR

ABR

MAY

JUN

JUL

AGO

SEP

OCT

NOV

DIC

2010

10103010

G1

4.779 12.523 12.500 15.119 21.371 12.161 13.965 11.619 3.385 4.120 12.721 9.710

2010

10103020

G2

6.578

5.427

8.656

6.654

8.483

4.534 11.253

9.406 4.681 5.775

9.311 8.164

2010

10103110

G3

1.690

5.558

2.381

4.669

6.320

7.195

7.349

6.310 2.813 3.630

2.237 4.652

2010

10103120

G4

1.690

5.558

2.381

4.669

6.320

7.195

7.349

6.310 2.813 4.024

2.237 4.652

2010

10103210

G5

4.129

1.191

4.092

3.793

3.507

4.263

3.802

4.164 3.200 2.405

1.841 3.308

2010

10103310

G6

4.129

1.191

4.092

3.793

3.507

4.263

3.802

4.164 3.200 2.405

1.841 3.308

2009

10103010

G1

4.445 11.396 11.345 13.456 15.388 11.067 11.172

8.715 2.945 3.456

9.160 7.963

2009

10103020

G2

5.855

4.776

8.310

4.791

6.532

3.174

7.990

6.773 3.605 4.101

8.194 7.675

2009

10103110

G3

1.589

4.225

1.715

3.269

4.614

6.476

5.733

6.058 2.392 3.522

2.103 3.955

2009

10103120

G4

1.319

3.891

2.239

4.249

5.436

6.332

7.056

5.995 1.970 3.179

1.947 3.908

2009

10103210

G5

3.634

894

2.988

3.452

2.981

3.368

3.498

3.706 2.784 1.997

1.768 2.515

2009

10103310

G6

2.973

1.132

3.151

3.680

3.297

3.709

3.270

3.915 3.104 1.973

1.639 2.945

2008

10103010

G1

3.468 10.827

8.282 12.245 14.927

8.965

9.273

6.188 2.415 3.111

8.428 7.008

2008

10103020

G2

5.036

4.108

7.978

3.737

4.899

2.794

7.032

6.299 2.596 3.404

6.064 6.064

2008

10103110

G3

1.303

3.127

1.458

2.452

3.830

6.217

5.447

4.423 1.986 3.311

1.578 3.006

2008

10103120

G4

1.214

2.763

2.150

3.995

4.512

5.573

5.081

4.916 1.773 2.385

1.733 2.971

2008

10103210

G5

2.617

716

2.720

2.451

2.534

2.796

2.764

2.965 1.977 1.538

1.556 1.786

2008

10103310

G6

2.082

1.087

2.427

3.423

2.968

3.598

2.551

3.641 2.980 1.776

1.476 2.445

2007

10103010

G1

3.018

9.745

6.626 11.511 11.046

6.366

8.624

5.693 1.763 2.427

8.091 6.238

2007

10103020

G2

4.785

3.451

7.659

3.551

4.067

2.320

5.696

5.985 2.103 2.485

5.094 5.216

2007

10103110

G3

1.121

2.721

1.342

2.305

2.796

5.036

4.630

3.185 1.748 2.649

1.168 2.495

2007

10103120

G4

1.105

2.156

1.505

3.276

3.384

4.403

4.878

4.474 1.561 2.099

1.387 2.645

2007

10103210

G5

2.330

674

2.068

1.741

1.774

2.713

2.046

2.461 1.384 1.123

1.276 1.286

2007

10103310

G6

1.853

914

2.039

2.705

2.464

3.347

2.220

2.622 2.116 1.652

1.196 1.932

2006

10103010

G1

2.415

8.966

5.699 10.936

8.837

5.284

7.935

5.124 1.287 2.209

5.988 4.679

2006

10103020

G2

3.781

2.796

6.664

3.090

3.132

1.856

4.899

5.387 2.019 1.988

4.738 4.278

2006

10103110

G3

841

2.313

980

2.167

2.293

4.432

4.029

2.294 1.224 2.199

935 2.246

2006

10103120

G4

929

1.919

1.250

2.851

2.742

3.919

3.903

4.206 1.265 1.554

1.277 2.460

2006

10103210

G5

2.191

493

1.614

1.567

1.704

2.198

1.555

1.723 1.274

989

1.238 1.055

2006

10103310

G6

1.798

851

1.632

2.219

1.750

3.046

2.021

1.862 1.990 1.388

1.077 1.449

2005

10103010

G1

2.295

6.277

5.244

9.624

8.219

3.911

6.825

3.946 1.197 1.856

4.192 4.352

2005

10103020

G2

2.912

2.014

6.465

2.967

2.694

1.782

4.753

5.118 1.737 1.810

3.554 3.851

2005

10103110

G3

791

1.620

824

1.951

1.904

4.167

3.788

1.996 1.163 1.584

795 1.775

2005

10103120

G4

809

1.382

1.150

2.623

2.194

3.724

3.084

3.576 1.038 1.275

1.137 2.264

2005

10103210

G5

1.950

449

1.550

1.317

1.313

1.693

1.431

1.431 1.109

960

954 1.013

2005

10103310

G6

1.277

758

1.551

2.131

1.365

2.285

1.860

1.360 1.453 1.333

830 1.406

2004

10103010

G1

2.135

4.771

4.510

9.047

6.658

2.738

5.392

2.999 1.138 1.652

3.731 3.395

2004

10103020

G2

2.709

1.793

4.591

2.433

2.479

1.711

4.611

4.402 1.442 1.467

2.986 3.312

2004

10103110

G3

760

1.151

759

1.366

1.505

3.709

2.804

1.657

826 1.220

740 1.580

2004

10103120

G4

599

1.272

817

2.414

1.756

3.278

2.375

3.433

935 1.161

819 1.653

2004

10103210

G5

1.755

405

1.333

1.159

1.143

1.609

1.045

1.389 1.032

2004

10103310

G6

1.035

728

1.102

1.982

1.311

1.691

1.544

2003

10103010

G1

1.623

3.960

4.014

7.238

5.993

2.519

4.745

2.310

877 1.421

2.799 2.852

2003

10103020

G2

2.574

1.686

4.086

2.215

1.835

1.660

3.735

3.522 1.313 1.203

2.628 2.484

2003

10103110

G3

654

1.117

699

1.271

1.189

3.339

2.328

1.177

587 1.050

607 1.185

2003

10103120

G4

456

1.031

646

2.342

1.282

2.951

1.877

3.296

870

964

615 1.158

2003

10103210

G5

1.317

393

1.120

858

1.063

1.288

857

1.209

774

555

631

720

966 1.366 1.187

678

770

623 1.125

717

2003

10103310

G6

766

576

838

1.428

1.010

1.438

1.483

841 1.312

2002

10103010

G1

1.234

3.446

3.172

5.719

5.334

2.217

3.986

2.195

746 1.251

2.240 2.282

2002

10103020

G2

1.854

1.400

3.760

1.595

1.322

1.544

3.250

2.924 1.261 1.059

1.840 1.913

2002

10103110

G3

615

1.039

595

1.144

880

2.872

2.119

930

552

924

438 1.079

2002

10103120

G4

415

753

537

2.155

1.180

2.538

1.352

3.132

618

675

456

869

2002

10103210

G5

1.001

276

997

678

1.000

1.070

789

1.040

666

400

600

603

2002

10103310

G6

675

519

646

1.300

748

1.280

1.409

606 1.194

908

414

756

2001

10103010

G1

938

3.205

2.855

4.690

3.894

1.885

3.468

1.669

914

1.815 2.054

2001

10103020

G2

1.539

1.204

3.497

1.548

1.098

1.406

2.373

2.252 1.035 1.017

1.546 1.856

2001

10103110

G3

486

936

435

1.064

704

2.097

1.971

661

409

786

368 1.047

2001

10103120

G4

391

648

376

1.746

1.086

2.310

1.001

2.663

439

621

393

800

2001

10103210

G5

731

235

698

536

700

782

632

760

567

352

462

501

2001

10103310

G6

540

395

517

1.209

614

909

1.226

552

860

809

381

704

627

986

449

968

Ella piensa que una previsin precisa de las ventas le ayudara a planificar sus necesidades de transporte.
Empleando los primeros cuarto aos como datos base para la estimacin, y reservando los del ltimo para
comprobar la precisin de los resultados:

a. Efectuar un anlisis de la demanda, a fin de garantizar la veracidad de la informacin

b. Evaluar el modelo de pronstico que mejor describa el comportamiento de la demanda.
c. Aplicar el modelo seleccionado, para calcular el pronstico de la demanda para el ao 2011