International Journal of Economics, Commerce and Management

United Kingdom

Vol. IV, Issue 12, December 2016

http://ijecm.co.uk/

ISSN 2348 0386

ASYMMETRIES BETWEEN STOCK RETURNS AND

CONSUMER CONFIDENCE: EVIDENCE FROM
TURKISH STOCK MARKET DATA
Emel Siklar
Anadolu University, Dept. of Business Administration, Turkey
esiklar@anadolu.edu.tr

Ilyas Siklar
Anadolu University, Dept. of Economics, Turkey
isiklar@anadolu.edu.tr

Abstract
According to general theoretical beliefs and empirical findings there is a positive relationship
between stock prices and aggregate consumption expenditures especially toward increment
direction. The conventional explanation of this phenomenon is based upon the wealth effect
concept. However, stock market movements can also affect the consumption expenditure in an
indirect way. Bullish market conditions may cause customer to be more optimistic regarding the
future conditions of the economy and, therefore, to increase their spending. This study
investigates the presence of the consumer confidence channel of equity prices in Turkey during
2004-2015 period. Current study uses the Consumer Confidence Index composed by the
Turkish Statistical Institute in a cooperation with the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey as a
proxy for the consumer confidence while Istanbul Stock Exchange main index (BIST100) is
used to represent stock market conditions. Obtained empirical results indicate that there is
strong confidence channel in Turkey whereas empirical findings also support the view that stock
price changes have some asymmetric effect on consumer confidence. In other words,
decreases in the stock exchange index, compared to increases, create more powerful and
statistically meaningful effects on consumer confidence.
Keywords: Stock prices, consumer confidence, wealth effect, price asymmetry, Turkey

Licensed under Creative Common

Page 1

 Siklar

INTRODUCTION
After 2008 global financial crisis a sophisticated perception of the relationships between
monetary and production sectors of the economy is settled to the agenda of policy decision
makers and scientific studies. In general terms, this study focuses on the connection between
consumption behavior and stock market. Traditionally stock market directly affects consumption
expenditures via wealth effect. When stock prices increase, as wealth effect predicts, the value
of the financial wealth and consequently the share of sources for consumption also increases.
This results in an increase in consumption expenditures. However movements in stock market
can indirectly affect consumption expenditures by affecting consumer confidence. Specifically
this study aims to search the existence and principal characteristics of this confidence channel
indirectly created by stock price changes.
This mechanism which we shortly call as confidence channel depends in a great part on
the idea that share prices can be used as a leading indicator about economic activities. By
causing consumers to be optimistic about the future of the economy, bull market conditions
cause consumers to increase their expenditures. Confidence channel is a different mechanism
from wealth channel. Higher stock prices via higher value of wealth can undoubtedly influence
consumer confidence. However, the important point for the confidence channel is not the
consumers belief that they have a higher value of financial wealth, contrary it is the belief that
good days in the economy are coming. If an independently working confidence channel is
present, variations in share prices can influence consumption conclusion of, not only, the
shareholders but also non-shareholders. In emerging markets with a characteristic of limited
shareholding confidence channel consequently carries a different importance
Confidence channel on stock prices was first put forward by the well-known paper of
Romer (1990) on Great Depression. According to Romer, collapse of financial markets 1929
caused to increase uncertainties about the future of the economy. Therefore it is a critical factor
to explain the U.S. consumer expenditures in 1929 1932 period. More recent studies
regarding U.S. and European economies conclude that there are some evidence in favor of
existence of confidence channel other than wealth effect. For instance, Jansen Nahuis (2003)
and Otoo (1999) identify a causal relationship running from stock price changes to consumer
confidence changes while Jansen Nahuis (2004), Bram Ludvigson (1998) and Carol
et.al.(2004) determine a positive contribution of consumer confidence changes in improving
estimates of consumer expenditure changes. Contribution of our study in this context is to
analyze whether confidence channel is valid in an emerging stock market.

Licensed under Creative Common

Page 2

International Journal of Economics, Commerce and Management, United Kingdom

Past studies conducted for Turkey show that the second phase of the confidence channel is
valid, that is, consumer confidence does affect the consumer expenditures. For instance,
Gormus Gunes (2010) find a causal relationship running from macroeconomic variables to
consumer confidence and conclude that the reverse is not present in 2002 2008 period.
Bolaman Mandaci (2014) investigate the relationship between consumer confidence and stock
exchange index under tight financial conditions for 2003 2012 period. Obtained results show
that macroeconomic factors should be evaluated as a critical factor depending their effects on
consumer confidence. Karasoy (2015) emphasizes that financial volatility besides the other
macroeconomic variables has an important effect on consumer confidence. He also concludes
that this situation can be accepted as an extra transmission mechanism for consumption
expenditures especially in financially distressed times. Investigating the relationship between
consumer confidence and stock returns by using the VAR methodology and Granger causality
tests, Canbas Kandir (2010) reach the conclusion that stock returns do affect the consumer
confidence. However, they find that consumer confidence is not an efficient variable to estimate
stock returns in Turkey. Celik et. al. (2010) analyze the link between consumer confidence and
financial markets under economic turbulence conditions and conclude that consumer
confidence should be accepted not only as a variable indicating the sensitivity of consumers
about the future of the economy but also as a variable with endogenous characteristic.
Our results support the working mechanism of confidence channel in the context of
Turkish data. Obtained results show that stock price changes have an important effect on
expectations for future of the economy in general terms. However a change in share prices has
a little contribution on the formation of personal financial position. In this study two different
hypotheses about asymmetric outcomes of variations in share prices on consumer assurance
are tested. We analyze whether a downward change in capital market price index makes
economic units more doubtful than trust generated by positive changes. Second, we investigate
whether a greater variation in share prices has a greater effect on consumer confidence than a
smaller change. While our results support the first hypothesis, they do not favor the second one.
We also found that the mentioned asymmetries are valid for both wealth and confidence
channels.
Organization of the remaining part of the study can be summarized as: Part 2 expresses
and summarizes fundamental characteristics of data while Part 3 discusses the estimation
method and deals with empirical outcomes about the structure of relationships among variables.
Finally the last part summarizes the paper and draws attention to the fundamental results
obtained.

Licensed under Creative Common

Page 3

 Siklar

RESEARCH METHODOLGY
Measurement of consumer confidence is done by Turkish Statistical Institute (TSI) together with
the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT) and published by TSI. With a monthly
questionnaire, it is aimed that to measure how consumers evaluate their financial situation and
the current economic environment. This survey also tries to collect data on how consumers
assess the future of the economy (expectations) and think of the possibility of saving.
Assessment of the current position, expectations and tendencies related for the economy are
carried out with the following headings:

Personal financial status: Evaluation of consumers financial status of their household

during past 12 months, next 12 months and current situation, probability of credit usage
during next 3 months.

General economic situation: Evaluation of consumers about the general economic

conditions during past 12 months, next 12 months and current status, expectations
about the number of unemployed people over the next 12 months, opinion of consumers
currently whether it is time to buy durable goods and to save, opinion of consumers
about consumer price changes during past 12 months and next 12 months, expectations
about changes in wages over the next 12 months.

Spending and saving tendencies: Opinion of consumers to spend for semi-durable

goods over the next 3 months, for durable goods over the next 12 months, probability of
buying, constructing or renovating of an house over the next 12 months, probability of
saving over the next 12 months.

This questionnaire is applied to a family member who is over 16 in the representative household
with the distinction of rural and urban areas. The target area of the survey covers all the
settlements throughout the country and, in this context, the settlements whose population are
20,001 and over are considered as urban, 20,000 and less are considered as rural regions. The
questionnaire is applied between the first and fifteenth day of each month and published in the
last week of related month. Indices compiled carry a value between 0 and 200. A value greater
than 100 shows the consumer optimism, less than 100 indicates the consumer pessimism.
Two questions in the consumer confidence survey carry weight with assessment of the
relationship between share prices and tendencies of consumers. These are the question
number 2 and number 4. In the rest of the paper we are going to use the overall consumer
confidence index and the sub-indices constructed by TSI considering mentioned questions. The
overall index for consumer confidence will traditionally be shown as CCI and the sub-indices

Licensed under Creative Common

Page 4

International Journal of Economics, Commerce and Management, United Kingdom

related with questions 2 and 4 will be represented as IND2 and IND4, respectively. These
questions are as follows in questionnaire:
Question 2: What is your expectation about personal financial status over the next 12 months?
Question 4: What is your expectation about the general economic status of the country over
the next 12 months?
Question 2 is about the assessment of financial situation of the household over the next 12
months. Answers to this question are informative about the strength of wealth effect stemming
from the impact of changes in share prices on consumer confidence. Question 4 is about the
assessment of expectation of household for future economic conditions in the country. If there
exists an independent confidence channel it is expected that answers should be affected by
stock price changes. Therefore indices IND2 and IND4 will be used to assess the prominence of
wealth and confidence channels.
Stock returns will be calculated in terms of Istanbul Stock Exchange 100 Index (ISE100).
This price index is the fundamental indicator for stock market in Turkey and data for that
indicator is published by the management of Istanbul Stock Exchange in semi-daily basis.
Monthly data is constructed from daily series by considering the last trading day closing value.
This reduces the possibility of erroneous correlation and causality among time series for related
variables. Following figures show tendencies of the variables mentioned above for the period
under investigation:
Figure 1: ISE100 Index (2004:01 2016:09)

100000
90000
80000
70000
60000
50000
40000
30000
20000
10000
2004M01
2004M07
2005M01
2005M07
2006M01
2006M07
2007M01
2007M07
2008M01
2008M07
2009M01
2009M07
2010M01
2010M07
2011M01
2011M07
2012M01
2012M07
2013M01
2013M07
2014M01
2014M07
2015M01
2015M07
2016M01
2016M07

Licensed under Creative Common

Page 5

 Siklar

Figure 2: Developments in Consumer Confidence (2004:01 2016:09)

130
120
110
100
90
80
70
60
CCI

IND2

IND4

2004M01
2004M06
2004M11
2005M04
2005M09
2006M02
2006M07
2006M12
2007M05
2007M10
2008M03
2008M08
2009M01
2009M06
2009M11
2010M04
2010M09
2011M02
2011M07
2011M12
2012M05
2012M10
2013M03
2013M08
2014M01
2014M06
2014M11
2015M04
2015M09
2016M02
2016M07

50

Consumer confidence data are compiled in Turkey since the begging of 2004 while ISE data is
present from 1986. Therefore investigation period begins with 2004-January and covers the
period until 2016-September in monthly basis consisting of 153 observations as sample size.
Descriptive statistics of time series used are given in Table 1.

Table 1: Descriptive Statistics of Time Series (153 Observations)

ISE100

CCI

IND2

IND4

Mean

53986,66

76,17

88,56

90,53

Median

54596,81

76,20

89,90

91,50

Maximum

90094,56

98,70

108,30

117,60

Minimum

17041,50

55,70

68,10

62,20

Skewness

-0,126

0,223

-0,537

-0,458

Kurtosis

1,818

2,802

3,990

3,152

Jarque-Bera

9,319

1,524

13,604

5,496

(Probability)

(0,009)

(0,467)

(0,001)

(0,064)

ESTIMATION RESULTS
Diagnostic Tests
In order to go further in analysis we first have to identify the order of integration in time series
used. For this purpose all the time series are transformed to logarithmic form and the series with
their levels and first differences are subjected to two different unit root tests (Augmented Dickey-

Licensed under Creative Common

Page 6

International Journal of Economics, Commerce and Management, United Kingdom

Fuller (ADF) and Kwiatowski-Phillips-Shcmit-Shin (KPSS) tests) to determine the degree of

integration. In ADF tests the lag length is selected by using Akiake Information Criteria, in KPSS
tests, band width is determined by using Newey-West Criteria. Both ADF and KPSS tests
indicate that all the log series are not stationary in their levels, but stationary in the first
differences of log levels (see Table 2). Since this shows us that time series present an I(1)
characteristic, in the rest of the paper we are going to use these stationary series unless
otherwise stated.

Table 2: Unit Root Test Results

ADF

Lag

Probability

KPSS

Band

ise100

-2,127

0,235

1,264

10

ise100

-9,442

0,000

0,108

cci

-3,041

0,135

1,211

cci

-10,559

0,000

0,159

ind2

-2,607

0,278

1,238

10

ind2

-11,322

0,000

0,272

ind4

-2,628

0,269

1,632

ind4

-10,179

0,000

0,256

Variable

Note: * indicates trend inclusion. For KPSS LM test, the critical

value is 0,463 at 5% level of significance.

To see whether a long-run relationship between stock returns and one of the confidence
indicators exists, we conducted cointegration tests. Results of Johansen multi-variate
cointegration tests with 4 months lag length and a constant are shown in Table 3. It is clear that
there is a cointegrated vector between ISE100 index representing the stock market and each of
the three indices representing the consumer confidence. This shows us that there is a long-run
relationship between changes in stock prices and changes in consumer confidence.

Table 3: Johansen Cointegration Test Results

Null Hypothesis

r=0

Variable

Trace Test

Maximum Eigen Value Test

cci

50,348

31,445

ind2

54,277

35,286

ind4

50,062

31,944

Note: Critical values for trace and maximum Eigen value test at 5% level of
significance are 15,495 and 14,265, respectively. r is the number cointegrated
vector.

Licensed under Creative Common

Page 7

 Siklar

The first differences of log levels (in other words, percentage changes) of overall, IND2 and
IND4 indices are presented in Figure 3 below. Correlation coefficients among these percentage
changes are presented as Table 4. By considering the figure and table it is possible to say that
answers to individual questions in the confidence questionnaire are changed independently.
The lowest correlation value between sub-indices IND2 and IND4 supports this conclusion.

Figure 3: Percentage Changes in Confidence Indices

0.3

0.25

0.25

0.2

0.2

0.15

0.15
0.1
0.1
0.05
0.05
0

-0.05

1
7
13
19
25
31
37
43
49
55
61
67
73
79
85
91
97
103
109
115
121
127
133
139
145
151

0
-0.05
-0.1

-0.1
IND2

-0.15

IND4

CCI

-0.15

Table 4: Correlations among Confidence Indices

cci

ind2

ind4

cci

1,000

0,897

0,932

ind2

0,897

1,000

0,877

ind4

0,932

0,877

1,000

Variable

Correlation Analysis
Table 5 below shows simultaneous correlations among variables. All of the calculated
coefficients have a positive sign indicating a change with the same direction. Another
remarkable point in the table is that the correlation between percentage change in IND4
(representing the expectations about general economic status) and change in ISE100
(representing stock returns) is stronger than the correlation between percentage change in IND2
(representing the expectations about personal financial status) and percentage change in

Licensed under Creative Common

Page 8

International Journal of Economics, Commerce and Management, United Kingdom

ISE100. This indicates the existence of a powerful confidence channel differing from the
traditional wealth channel. All the correlation coefficients calculated are different from zero at
1% significance level. The t statistic regarding the null hypothesis that the correlation coefficient
is zero is calculated as:

2
1 2

Where, r represents the correlation coefficient. Results show that the null hypothesis of there is
no correlation between changes in stock returns (ise100) and three indices representing the
changes in consumer confidence (cci, ind2 and ind4) are rejected in all cases.

Table 5: Correlations between Stock Returns and Consumer Confidence

Variable

Coefficient

t statistic

Probability

cci

0,362

4,760

0,000

ind2

0,312

4,130

0,000

ind4

0,374

4,948

0,000

Granger Causality Tests

The next step in analyzing the relationship between consumer confidence and stock returns is
to test the causality among variables by estimating the preceding equations:

= +

+
=1

= +

+ ,

(1)

=1

+
=1

+ ,

(2)

=1

Where, con represents a measure for consumer confidence (overall confidence index (cci),
index representing the expectations about future personal financial status (ind2) and index
representing expectations about general economic status (ind4)), ise shows a measure of stock
prices (ISE100 index) and L indicates the lag length. The term in equations shows the error
term with classical properties of zero mean and normal distribution. If the lagged values of a
variable X have an important predictive power to estimate a variable Y, it is accepted that the
variable X is a Granger cause of the variable Y. Table 6 below summarizes the results of
performed Granger causality tests where the sign refers the direction of causality. The null

Licensed under Creative Common

Page 9

 Siklar

hypothesis that there is no causality is rejected at the marginal significance level for F test given
in probability column.

Table 6: Granger Causality Test Results

Variable

Lag

cci

ise con

con ise

F Test

Probability

F Test

Probability

3,457

0,034

1,963

0,088

ind2

2,277

0,064

0,930

0,449

ind4

5,319

0,023

1,066

0,304

Results obtained for overall consumer confidence index (cci) point out that there is a two-way
Granger causality. When we consider two sub-indices which are included in the model beside
the overall index to represent wealth and confidence channels, results substantially differ. For
both indices, causality runs from stock prices to consumer confidence but the reverse is not true
(the null hypothesis that there is no causality cannot be rejected). Consequently stock prices
cause ind2 for wealth channel and ind4 for confidence channel and one-way causality is
accepted. This one-way causality should be accepted as an indicator for the existence of both
wealth and confidence channels. For additional evidence, therefore, we have to investigate
closely the results for sub-indices in order to understand the relative importance of wealth and
confidence channels.
Current data for both ind2 and ind4 supports the one-way causality running from share
prices to consumer confidence. In other words, stock prices are taken into account as a variable
to evaluate the personal financial status and the future economic conditions. However
compared to expectations about personal financial status and future economic conditions are
strongly affected by stock price changes. These outlined results confirm together that consumer
confidence is influenced by wealth and confidence channels independently.
Asymmetric Effects
Results of former studies indicate that wealth changes in capital market asymmetrically
influence consumption expenditures, i.e. changes in consumer expenditures respond more
potently to downward capital market variations than the upward variations with the same
amount. In other words, a negative change in stock market more strongly affects consumption
expenditures than a positive change does. In principal, asymmetric effects can emerge for both
channels. To assess the existence of asymmetric effects we are going to consider two different
specifications. The first one can be written as follows:

Licensed under Creative Common

Page 10

International Journal of Economics, Commerce and Management, United Kingdom

2, + ++ + +

1, +
=1

(3)

=1

Where, DUM+ is a dummy variable which takes the value of 1 if stock market index increases in
period t, otherwise it has a value of zero. Similarly DUM is a dummy variable which takes the
value of 1 if stock market index decreases in period t, otherwise it has a value of zero. With
respect to equation (3) the existence of any asymmetric effect will be captured by the constant
term that points out shifts in consumer confidence based on the stock market change.
Estimation results of equation (3) specified to determine asymmetric effects are
summarized in Table 7. In estimation process, the k value which maximizes the adjusted R2 is
taken into account and determined as 3. To save space and make easy to follow up results, we
give only the coefficient estimates for dummy variables. In the context of overall confidence
index, + and - coefficients have expected signs and are statistically significant. The negative
coefficient is always twofold of the positive one showing that the existence of asymmetric shifts
in consumer confidence against the stock market changes. When we consider sub-indices,
estimated coefficients of dummy variables have also expected sign and are statistically
significant. However the null hypothesis that + = - is rejected for all the indices representing
consumer confidence. In absolute terms, coefficient of - is almost twofold of coefficient of + for
all three cases.
Table 7: Asymmetric Effects for Consumer Confidence I
Confidence Index
cci
ind2
ind4

0,883
0,621
1,111

0,103
0,201
0,090

-1,713
-1,405
-2,618

0,000
0,091
0,000

H0: =

2
0,553
0,218
0,654

(1) = 13,214

0,000

0,001

0,002

(1) = 9,262
(1) = 8,004

Findings reported in Table 7 lay emphasis on three important points: First, downward stock
market changes create more pessimism than optimism created by upward changes. Second,
this negative effect is almost twofold of positive effect. Third, although positive changes are
more frequently faced and have big size, the emerging of asymmetric effects proves that there
is strong confidence channel. In order to see this fact we draw the squares of changes in
ISE100 index. Figure 4 below shows together the series ise and (ise)2:

Licensed under Creative Common

Page 11

 Siklar

Figure 4: Course of Asymmetric Effects

0.2

0.09

0.15

0.08

0.1

0.07

0.05

0.06

-0.05
-0.1

2004M02
2004M07
2004M12
2005M05
2005M10
2006M03
2006M08
2007M01
2007M06
2007M11
2008M04
2008M09
2009M02
2009M07
2009M12
2010M05
2010M10
2011M03
2011M08
2012M01
2012M06
2012M11
2013M04
2013M09
2014M02
2014M07
2014M12
2015M05
2015M10
2016M03
2016M08

0
0.05
0.04
0.03

-0.15

0.02

-0.2

0.01

-0.25
-0.3

Note: ise is presented with red line and measured on the left axis while ise2 is presented with
black line and measured on the right axis.

The second part of asymmetric effects is related with the magnitude of effects. In this sense we
should investigate whether the effect of large downward changes in share market is a bigger
effect on consumer confidence than the small ones. To see this point we consider the second
specification:

= 0 +

1, +
=1

3, + +

2, +
=1

(4)

=1

Fundamental difference between equations (3) and (4) is that the latter carries a slope dummy
(DUM-iset-i) besides constant one. This equation makes possible to assess whether past
negative changes in stock market affect the current changes in consumer confidence. Table 8
summarizes the results obtained to test following null hypotheses regarding asymmetry among
variables:
(1) There is no asymmetry working with both slope and constant dummies (that is,

=1 3,

= 0, = 0)

(2) There is no asymmetry working with slope dummy (that is,

=1 3,

= 0)

(3) There is no asymmetry working with constant dummy (that is, = 0)

Licensed under Creative Common

Page 12

International Journal of Economics, Commerce and Management, United Kingdom

Table 8 includes test statistics and marginal significance levels for each null hypothesis. In
general obtained results for equation (4) are consistent with already obtained results for
equation (3). First, all of the null hypotheses for overall and sub-indices related for consumer
confidence are rejected. Second, the null hypotheses that there isnt any asymmetric slope
effect should be accepted for all of the confidence criteria. Third, the null hypotheses that there
is no asymmetric constant effect are rejected for all confidence measures. These results show
that large downward variations in capital market have no large influence on confidence criteria.
However, negative changes in stock market generate asymmetric level shifts in consumer
confidence indices. These types of effects work with both wealth and confidence channels. The
last point we should mention about the results inferred from Table 8 is that the explanatory
power of equations in terms of adjusted R2 are similar. However the equation with ind4 that
represents the consumer confidence channel in our analysis has slightly higher explanatory
power than other indices.
Table 8: Asymmetric Effects for Consumer Confidence II
Confidence Index

H0:

=1 3,

= 0, = 0

H0=

=1 3,

H0: = 0

=0
2

F(2,138)

(1)

(1)

cci

9,362

0,002

1,482

0,210

6,144

0,018

0,321

ind2

4,521

0,027

0,451

0,399

3,218

0,037

0,223

ind4

6,033

0,013

0,233

0,718

6,205

0,010

0,587

CONCLUSION
Price changes in stock market can affect consumption tendencies by directly changes in value
of wealth and indirectly changes in consumer confidence. Rationale behind the second channel
depends on the fact that movements in stock market affect consumer confidence; this, in turn,
affects consumption tendencies of economic agents. This study investigates the link between
variations in capital market and consumer confidence for Turkish case for January 2004
September 2016 period.
Obtained results indicate that variations in capital market and consumer confidence
present a correlation in positive direction. Variations in capital market Granger cause variations
in consumer assurance related with wealth and confidence channels. Downward variations in
capital market create significant, in statistical term, effects on consumer confidence but upward
variations do not. This is an evidence about the existence of asymmetric effects. Our results
also show that confidence channel can intensify effects of stock market changes on consumer
expenditures.

Licensed under Creative Common

Page 13

 Siklar

Due to unavailability of the data regarding the attitudes of shareholders and non-shareholders
distinction in consumer confidence survey we couldnt conduct the related tests on basis of
stock market participants. Current data should be extended to cover this issue in order to obtain
more satisfactory results. Consequently, by using this type of detailed data further research
should focus on the relationships between components of consumer confidence and economic
fundamentals in order to evaluate more accurately the size and importance of confidence
channel in Turkey.
REFERENCES
Apergis, N. - Miller, S. M. (2006), Consumption Asymmetry and the Stock Market: Empirical Evidence,
Economics Letters, Vol.93, No.3, pp.337-342.
Bolaman, O. - Mandaci, P.E. (2014), Effect of Investor Sentiment on Stock Markets, Finansal
Aratrmalar ve almalar Dergisi, Vol.6, No.11, pp.51-64.
Bram, J. - Ludvigson, S. (1998), Does Consumer Confidence Forecast Household Expenditure? A
Sentiment Index Horse Race, Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Vol.4, No.2,
pp.59-78.
Canbas, S. - Kandir. S.Y. (2009), Investor Sentiment and Stock Returns: Evidence from Turkey,
Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Vol.45, No.4, pp.36-52.
Carroll, C. - Fuhrer, J. - Wilcox, D. (1994), Does Consumer Sentiment Forecast Household Spending? If
so, why?, American Economic Review, Vol.84, No.5, pp.1397-1408.
Celik, S. - Aslanoglu, E. - Uzun, S. (2010), The Relationship between Consumer Confidence and
Financial Market: Variables in Turkey during the Global Crisis, Topics in Middle Eastern and North
African Economies, Vol.12, No.1, pp.1-17.
Gormus, S. - Gunes, S. (2010), Consumer Confidence, Stock Prices and Exchange Rates: The Case of
Turkey, Applied Econometrics and International Development, Vol. 10, No.2, pp.103-114.
Jansen,W. J. - Nahuis, N. J. (2003), The Stock Market and Consumer Confidence: European Evidence,
Economics Letters, Vol.79, No.1, pp.89-98.
Jansen, W. J. - Nahuis, N. J. (2004), Which Survey Indicators are Useful for Monitoring Consumption?
Evidence from European Countries, Journal of Forecasting, Vol23, No.2, pp.89-98.
Karasoy, H.G. (2015), Consumer Confidence Indices and Financial Volatility, TC Merkez Bankas,
Research Notes in Economics, No.2015-16.
Otoo, M. W. (1999), Consumer Sentiment and the Stock Market, Finance and Economics Discussion
Paper 1999-60, Federal Reserve Board, Washington D.C.
Romer, C. (1990), The Great Crash and the Onset of the Great Depression, Quarterly Journal of
Economics, Vol.105, No.3, pp.597.624.

Licensed under Creative Common

Page 14