Bi ging 15

Lch s h thng tin t quc t

Chng trnh Ging dy Kinh t Fulbright
Hc k Thu 2015
Thin Anh Tun

Ni dung
H thng tin t quc t
Vn la chn c ch t gi hi oi

H thng tin t quc t

Ch song bn v
(Bimetallism):
Trc 1875
Vng v bc ng thi c s dng
lm tin.
Greshams Law: ng tin xu s ui
ng
tin tt ra khi lu thng

Bn v vng (GS - Gold Standard)

1870 - 1914

V d: Nm 1792, 1 USD vng bng 1,603 gam vng rng; 1 USD bc bng
24,06 gam bc rng. Do , trng lng 1 USD bc bng 15 ln trng lng 1
USD vng. Ch ny tng c p dng Anh, Hoa K trc th k 19.
5

Xc nh t gi trong c ch GS
Nu ng -la M neo vi vng
theo t l 30 -la i 1 ounce vng,
v bng Anh neo vi vng theo t l
6 bng i 1 ounce vng, khi t
gi gia ng -la M v bng Anh
s c xc nh l:
$30 =
6
$5 = 1

GS: mt vi c im
C nh gi tr ng tin gn vi vng
T do xut nhp khu vng
NHT duy tr tr vng theo lng tin pht hnh
Vng chy t quc gia thm ht n quc gia thng d
BOP
Tng MS quc gia c BOP > 0:

To p lc tng gi
Li sut c xu hng gim
Tng nhp khu t quc gia c BOP < 0

Gim MS quc gia c BOP < 0:

To p lc gim gi
Li sut c xu hng tng
Gim nhp khu t quc gia c BOP > 0

Qu trnh iu chnh ch dng li khi BOPs = 0

C ch iu chnh t ng
ca GS
iu g xy ra nu US nhp siu t
UK?
iu g xy ra nu US xut siu t
UK?

Hn ch ca GS
C ch iu chnh BOP thng qua
mc gi, li
sut, thu nhp, tht nghip
Quc gia c BOP < 0 thng tri
qua thi kz nh n
Pht hin mi v m vng gy p lc
lm pht
Quc gia khan him vng s kim
hm cung

tin, nh hng n tng trng kinh

t

Gi vng (1820 2000)

(annual)

http://minefund.com/wordpress/?data-page=gold-annual-average-pricereal-nominal

10

Giai on gia hai Th chin, 1918 - 1939

Th chin I n ra, ch bn v vng b
ngng li

Nhng nm chin tranh lm cho nn

kinh t b tn ph v tr nn bt n nghim
trng
Cc khon bi thng chin ph lm bng n
siu lm pht chu u
Ch s gi c tng t mc 262 vo thng
1/1919 ln 126.160.000.000.000 vo thng
12/1923

11

Giai on gia hai Th chin, 1918 - 1939

Nu ko ch bn v vng

1919: Hoa K quay v bn v vng

1922: Anh, Php, , Nht ng v mt chng trnh ku gi cng
quay tr li bn v vng v vic hp tc gia cc ngn hng trung
ng trong vic t c cn bng bn trong v bn ngoi.
1925: Anh quay v bn v vng
1929: i suy thoi n ra theo sau cc cuc v ngn hng khp
th gii
1931: Anh buc phi t b bn v vng do nhng ngi nm gi
ng bng mt nim tin vo cam kt ca chnh ph trong vic duy
tr gi tr ng bng.

Nhiu nc b nh hng bi i suy thoi

Thit hi kinh t rt ln do cc hn ch v thng mi v

thanh ton quc t
Cc chnh sch n xin hng xm v tr a ln nhau dn
n s tan r ca nn kinh t th gii
12

H thng Bretton Woods (BWS)

1944 - 1971

13

S ra i ca BWS
7/1944, i din 44 nc nhm
hp ti Bretton Woods, New
Hampshire thit lp nn mt h
thng t gi hi oi c nh

14

BWS: c im
35 USD = 1 oz
Cc ng tin khc: +/-1% so vi USD

15

T gi c nh nh th no?
(1955)

http://www.grips.ac.jp/teacher/oono/hp/lecture_F/lec02.htm
16

Sau th nh th no?

17

Gi vng

(monthly data)

http://minefund.com/wordpress/?data-page=gold-annual-average-pricereal-nominal

18

Vai tr ca IMF
Cho vay cc nc b thm ht CA
Ku gi s chuyn i tin t
Tha thun v IMF c gng kt hp
linh hot nhm cho php cc nc t
c cn bng bn ngoi m khng phi
hy sinh cc mc tiu cn bng bn trong
hay ch t gi c nh

19

Vai tr ca IMF
Chnh ph cc
nc thnh vin

WB, WTO,
ADB<

X hi dn s

G20 & G7

iu phi,
tham vn

iu phi,
tham vn

H tr k thut
T vn

iu phi,
tham vn

Cc din n t
vn (OECD,
BIS,<)

Khu vc t
nhn
20

S sp ca BWS
Th lng nan Triffin
Quy lut Gresham
The Great Society v Vietnam
War
Vn c quyn pht hnh USD:
Th gii
tit kim M tiu dng?
Thiu ng thun v c ch iu
chnh

21

Hu Bretton Woods

22

Hu Bretton Woods

Tha thun Smithsonian (1971)

Hip nh Plaza (1985)
Hip nh Louvre (1987)
New Breton Woods/Bretton Woods
II?

23

Cc Hip nh gim gi USD

24

C ch t gi chu u
Cng ng chu u xut nm
1979 nh l
mt phn ca h thng tin t chu
u (EMS)
Mc tiu: gim bin ng t gi v
t c s n nh tin t cc
nc chu u
S chun b cho Lin minh tin t
v kinh t (EMU)

 L tin cho s ra i ca ng
tin chung Euro (1/1/1999)
25

ERM: c im
L h thng t gi bn c nh (semipegged
system)
Trc khi ng Euro ra i, ECU l
ng tin bt t c gi tr c xc
nh trn c s bnh qun trng s cc
ng tin quc gia thnh vin
ng tin cc nc thnh vin c
bin ng trong bin cho php
2,25% (tr Italy l 6%)

 Cc nc c trch nhim duy tr cam kt

ny

26

Eurozone: c im
19 nc thnh vin (ban u l 11)
Chnh sch tin t chung do ECB iu
hnh
Chnh sch ti kha c lp nhng
chu mt s
rng buc chung:
Thm ht ngn sch khng qu 3% GDP
N cng khng qu 60% GDP

27

Mi quan h gia cc tha thun

v cc t
chc chu u a quc gia

28

29

Khng hong ERM

Nc Anh tham gia ERM t 10/1990
nhng phi rt ra khi ERM 2 nm sau
(ngy th T en ti)
Thng 8/1993, bin c ni ln 15%
Nm 1999: Euro ra i thay th ECU
theo ngang
gi
Nm 2002: tin giy v tin xu chnh
thc ra i
Nm 2010: Khng hong n Hy Lp v
mt s
nc trong khi Eurozone
Nguy c tan r ca khi Eurozone?

30

ng SDRs (Special Drawing

Rights - XDR)

Period

US$

DEM

FRF

JPY

GBP

19811985

0.540 (42%)

0.460 (19%)

0.740 (13%)

34.0 (13%)

0.0710 (13%)

19861990

0.452 (42%)

0.527 (19%)

1.020 (12%)

33.4 (15%)

0.0893 (12%)
31

19911995

0.572 (40%)

0.453 (21%)

0.800 (11%)

31.8 (17%)

0.0812 (11%)

19961998

0.582 (39%)

0.446 (21%)

0.813 (11%)

27.2 (18%)

0.1050 (11%)

Period

US$

19992000

0.5820 (39%)

20012005

0.5770 (44%)

20062010

0.6320 (44%)

20112015

0.6600 (41.9%)

EUR
0.2280 (21%)

0.1239 (11%)

JPY

GBP

27.2 (18%)

0.1050 (11%)

0.4260 (31%)

21.0 (14%)

0.0984 (11%)

0.4100 (34%)

18.4 (11%)

0.0903 (11%)

= 0.3519 (32%)

0.4230 (37.4%)

12.1000 (9.4%) 0.1110 (11.3%)

Vai tr ang ln ca ng
Renminbi?

H thng tin t quc t hin

nay l g?

33

C ch t gi no hin
nay?
Ch
la ha (Dollarization)
Hi ng tin t
(Currency Board)
Lin minh tin t
(Monetary Union)
Neo truyn thng
(Traditional Peg)
Neo trn (Crawling Peg)
Bin (Bands)
Th ni c s can thip
ty

c im
Mt loi ngoi t ng vai tr nh mt ng tin hp php. Chnh sch
tin t gn vi nc pht hnh loi ngoi t .
Mt ch t gi c nh (ch yu c quy nh bi lut) c b sung
bi mt yu cu m bo ti thiu cho gi tr ng ni t bng ng
ngoi t.
Mt nhm quc gia s dng mt ng tin chung c pht hnh bi
mt ngn hng trung ng chung.
T gi c nh gn vi mt ng tin hoc l mt r tin t.
Mt c ch da trn quy tc iu chnh t gi, thng l vi mt t l cho
trc hoc da trn s khc bit v lm pht.
T gi c linh hot trong mt bin c xc lp trc.
T gi c xc nh theo th trng nhng chnh ph c th can thip
nhng khng b rng buc bi bt k quy tc no. C ch ny thng i
lin vi mt ci neo danh ngha ring bit, chng hn nh mc tiu lm
pht.

Th ni hon ton

T gi c th trng quyt nh m khng c bt c s can thip no

ca chnh ph.

34

Cc nh i trong vic la
chn c
ch t gi
Th ni

Trung gian

Neo mm

Neo cng

n nh
Tnh d b tn thng
trc khng hong
tin t

--

+-

++

++

++

++

--

++

Tnh d b tn thng
trc cc c sc

++

+-

--

--

S c lp trong chnh
sch tin t

++

+-

--

--

35

S pht trin ca cc ch t gi

Source: Barry Eichengreen and Raul Razo-Garcia, 2006

36

Tnh trng kim sot dng vn

cc nc trn th gii

Source: Barry Eichengreen and Raul Razo-Garcia, 2006

37

Kim sot vn v c ch t gi cc nc

Source: Barry Eichengreen and Raul Razo-Garcia, 2006

38

C ch t gi cc nc d bo n 2025
(da theo cch phn loi ca Reinhart v Rogoff)

39

Tm tt lch s h thng tin t quc t

Giai on

H thng

Ti sn d tr

Ch o

1803-1873 Song bn v

Vng, bc

Php, Anh

1873-1914 Bn v vng c in

Vng, pound

Anh

1914-1924 Tiu chun -la neo

Vng, -la

M, Anh, Php

1924-1933 Bn v vng hin i

Vng, -la, pound M, Anh, Php

1933-1971 Tiu chun -la neo

Vng, -la

1971-1973 Tiu chun -la

-la

1973-1985 C ch t gi linh hot

C ch t gi c qun
1985-1999 l

-la, mc, yen

M, G7, IMF

-la, euro, yen

M, Eurozone, IMF

1999-nay -la, Euro

M, G-10

M
M, c, Anh,
-la, mc, pound Nht

40

H thng king ba chn

41