TRENDSv SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT me 7 CTRENDS IN SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT AFRICA REPORTDESA ‘The Department of Economic and Social Affairs ofthe United Nations Secretariat i vital interface between global policies in the economic, social and environmental spheres and national action, The Department works in three main interlinked areas: () it compiles, generates and analyses a wide range of economic, socal and environmental data and information on which Member States ofthe United Nations draw to review commen problems and to take stock of policy options; it facitates the regota ‘tons of Member States in many itergovernmental bodies on joint courses af action te address ongoing or emerging global chal lenges; aa (it advises interested Governments on the ways and means of translating policy frameworks developed in United [Nations conferences and summits into programmes at the county level and, trough technical assistance, helps buld national capacities Note ‘The designations employed and the presentation ofthe material inthis publication do notimply the expression of ary opin= ion whatsoever an the part of the Secretarat of the United Nations concerning the legal status of any country or territory for of ts authorities, or concerning the delimitations of its frontiers. The term "country" as used inthe text of the present report also refers, as appropriate to territories or areas. The designations of country groups in the text and the tables are intended solely for statistical or analytical convenience and do not necessariy express a judgment about the stage reached bby particular country or area in the development process, Mention of the names of fms and commercial products doe rat imply the endorsement of the United Nations United Nations publication Sales No. EO8.LA1 ISBN 978.92-1-108576-5 Copyright © United Ni llrightsreserved Printed in United Nations, New York ns, 2008FOREWORD Since the United Nations Conference on Environment and Development in 1992 and the subsequent World Summit on Sustainable Development in 2002, signficanteffrts have been made in pursuit of sustainable development. At the political level sustainable development has grown from being a movement mostly focusing on environmental concerns to widely recognized framework Uilized by indviduas, governments, corporations and cv scity that attempts to balance economic, social, environmental and {generational concerns in decision-making and actions at al level. At the September 2005 World Summ, the UN General Assembly reiterated that “sustainable development is a key element of the overarching framework for United Nations activites, in particu- lar for achieving the interationally agreed development goals’ including those contained in the Milenrium Declaration and the Johannesburg Pian of implementation (A/RES/S9/227} This repor highlights key developments and recent trends in sub-Saharan Africa - the cate of Africa being considered by the Com- ‘mission on Sustainable Development atts 16th and 17th sessions (2008-2009) tnotes progress ina numberof areas while, at the same tme, acknowiedging that in other areas sgnficant work is stil needed to advance imolementaton of intergovernmentally agreed goals and targets Department of Economic and Socal fairs Division for Sustainable Development ‘Apri 2008FOREWORD w INTRODUCTION 1 DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS EDUCATION... 7 HEALTH INFRASTRUCTURE AND SERVICES STRUCTURE OF THE ECONOMY AGRICULTURE... DEVELOPMENT FINANCE. ” NATURAL RESOURCES. DESERTIFICATION, DROUGHT, AND CLIMATE CHANGE..........0e0cceeerce 38 SOURCES FOR GRAPHS AND MAPS. ENDNOTES aserry prenearcened Anew growth trend has emerged since the beginning of the ‘twenty-first century, Reversing previous trends, African economies have performed well over the last six years, Sub-Saharan Africa's growth performance was underpinned by improvement in macraseonomie management in many countries, and strong global demand for key African export commodities, sustaining high ‘export prices, especially for crude ol, metals and minerals? G6 Together, by stepping up efforts to reach the Millennium Development Goals throughout the continent, we can and must make the 21st century the African century. 92 Ban Kimoon UN Secretary-General INTRODUCTION: GENERAL TRENDS Cee Conflicts have recently exhibited a deci Sub-Saharan Africa has experienced numerous violent conflicts inthe last 50 years, Conficts have shown a decreasing tend in recent years. The number (of displaced persons has also declined from a peak in the early 1990s, 19 trend.‘Changes in fuel and mining export for Pepe Ser) ee pe asa ‘Sub-Saharan Africa's growth has been increasingly diverse. ‘Sub-Saharan Africa's recent growth has been boosted by sustained high prices of natural resources such a¢ ol, gas and minerals, a2 well a¢ 4 con- ‘camitant increase in a number of agrcutural commodity prices, Oil and gas producers have benefited from massive inflows of revenues. The growth performance of nor-silproducing counties as a whole has also been ‘Brong over the past decade. From 2001 to 2005, 10 nen-sil producers, including agrcutural counties like Burkina Fazo, Ethiopia, Mali, Ugands id the United Republic of Tanzania, have registered annual GD? growth fates above 5 per cent. ee reedStatus on Selected Human Development indicators Achieving the Millennium Development Goals remains a challenge. [At the midway point between their adoption in 2000 and the 2015 target date for achieving the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs), sub-Saha- ‘an Africa's not on tack to achieve any of the Goals? Individual counties performances on specific targets have been highy variable, Inet: or the ve dimensions represented on the graphs have been construct {0 s0. to range fom Ones eat) t 10 (best ese, 5 fos Hunger Deied ss "00 minus percentage of undemourshed people. Source: Wold Development Indeator 2007 Infant meray: Index equal te morality atin ers performing county minus mat. "yatein county eoradoredfmoraty rate n wor! performing eaunty mae mart IRyratein best performing cour), Sowce UNMOG webs dveation Net envalmar ten primary eduestin, ge, Source: UNDG website ster acess: Pproponion of populaton wn access to an improved ruc of water, ban sod rr 2068, Source! Jol Mentoring Progransne. "Mesias vaccination Percentage of chilrenone-yearld knmurized against mals, Soot, Souce UNMOC weastePoverty has been reduced but remains widespread, in spite of successes during the last decade. The proportion of people lving on less than USS1 per day has been de- creating, But les rapidly than nother developing regions, For sub-Saharan Arica as a whole, it remains at 41.1 per cent ofthe population, more than ‘wice the level prevalent in the developing world" Another indicator of poverty used to monitor the MDGs, the poverty gap, is also twice higher for sub-Saharan Alviea than for developing regions as a whole. Although it has decreased slighty since 1990, the difference with other developing re- gions has inreazed. On current trends, the MDGT target of halving dolar- 3-day poverty will not be achieved in sub-Saharan fica EG Nous n’héritons pas de la terre de nos parents, nous empruntons & nos enfants.22 Léopeld Sédar Senghor Former Senegal PresidentDEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS eee mf EEE “mal gehen ‘Seas WDE, 207, Population growth is still strong. 'n 2007, sub-Saharan Africa had a population of 784 milion people. African population has continued to grow at avery high pace during the last decade, though growth rates have begun to decine since around ‘1985, Whereas population growth in Souther fica has plummeted and is expected to re Iain just above zero in the coming decades, mostly due tothe toll of KIV/ [AIDS in that subregion, growth rates in other subregions are only slowly de- creasing and are projected to remain above 1.5 per cont annvally to 2040, sub-Saharan Africa Population Breit ‘Sea ON DEA, 2007, Fertlity and GDP per capita, selected countries Sac, Wold Devalopmant nds 207 Fertility rates have decreased, but less rapidly than in other regions. Part of the explanation of the rapid demographic growth lies in very high ferility rates. In counties ike Angola, Burkina Faro, Chad and Niger, the average number of chen is stil above 6 per woman. By contrast, Zim- babwe, Kenya, Ghana and Sudan seem to be on 3 rapid transition pattern ‘cowards lower feral levels, Feriliy rates tend to decrease over time, no- “ably with sing incomes.Lo reer re ere ere Cent Prletedmedanae bea Suu: UN ESA, 2007 Compared to other developing regions, sub-Saharan Africa's population is very young, Currently, half of the population is lass than 18 years old, whereas the median ages cose o 25 or higher in Southern Asa and Latin America, and cose to 35, in Easter Asia, The aiference between the age structure of population in AE rica and in ther developing regions is expected to increase over te. lh 2030, the median age would be around 22 years in sub-Saharan Afric, whereas al ‘Avan subregions and Latn America would have much older populations, Urbanization Trends in Sub-Saharan Africa i ; & 3 i i ‘Shee oh popaliton 1995 parcantage) trent ek spin det dd Working age population will continue to grow rapidly. High fertlity ates will vanslate inte rapid population growth well into the ‘century, Fram 520 milion in 1990, population is expected to reach 1.3 bil: lion by 2030. The share of people under 15 in total population is expected to decline only slowly, from 46 per cent in 1990 to 36 per cent in 2030. Population aged 15 to 59 is expected to grow from 456 milion in 2010 to 1758 millon in 2030. This young population svucture represents a particular challenge for Aftian counties for education and emplayment Africa offers stark contrasts in terms of urbanization. Counties ike Burundi, Rwanda, Malawi, Ethiopia and Burkina Faso are stl ‘overwhelmingly rural, whereas in Djibouti and Gabon mare than 80 per cent fof the county’ population Ives in uroan areas. Between 1995 and 2005, some counties have witnessed fast growth of utban population. Nigeria, ‘the most populous country in sub-Saharan Affica, has seen the proportion of people ving in urban areas grow from &4 to 52 per centn “O'years, Urban [growth, often reflecting sizeable migration flows from rural areas, presents ‘daunting challenges for development, as infiows of migrants into the cites have to be provided with acces fo and, infrastructure and basic services.EDUCATION en aed ‘Access te primary education has progressed strongly in most countries. Trends in education are encouraging, with a marked increase in primary ‘enrolment for most countries overtime, az well a reduction inthe gender ‘g8p in school attendance, Ghana is successfully implementing a national rogramme using localy produced foods. Kenya, the United Republic of Tanzania, Uganda and many other countries have abolished fees for primary school Felting in dramate increases in enrolment during the space ofa few years rrr errr oe peered ‘Seas DWDG wba, 207. £6 Instruction in youth is like engraving in stones. African provereee Lara png oe Sand ab Adutt literacy is [Although there are important differences across Aftican counties in literacy rates, adul literacy hae shown consistent improvement over time in most ‘counties, Across countries as well as over tme, male iReracy rates tend to increase frst, female literacy catching up ata later stage. According to it ternational statistics, Lesotho and Botswana are exceptions to this rue, with higher literacy rates for females than for males. Zambia, Swaziland, South [Arica and Namibia all have both high Iteracy rates and very similar literacy rates for men and women, improving. Emigrs Aiea has often been highlighted asthe continent that sufers most from loran drain, The region has remained an area of net out-migration tothe rest of the worl, especially for selled migrants. Among the 10 counties with ‘more than 4 milion inhabitants having the highest emigration rates of skilled workers 0 OECD countries, sx are African counivies. Somalia is estimated to.be second only ‘0 Halt in terme of emigration of skiled workers: ion of skilled workers remains pervasive. with highest estimated emigration rate of skied eee ee ‘han 4 milion population)Nea Strong performers in reducing child mortality 1990-2000 inns meri ae 888i Progress has been made with respect to health conditions. Chile! mortality and maternal mortality ae among the highest in sub-Saharan ‘Aiea. Low incomes, insufficient health infastucture,dificuties of access to heath facities, and high prevalence of endemie diseases are among the ‘explanations. However, there has been progress in the reduction of child morality ever time. Also, some counties have achieved impressive perfor ‘mances in reducing maternal mortliy. ener ery‘Change in the proportion of undemourthed people betwe ‘Shares of expenditures spent on food and health pert rele sfandareshnein 80 percep epee Undernourishment is still a concern in a number of African counties, In four countries {the Democrat Republic of the Congo, Burundi the Co- ‘ores and Sierra Leone), itis estimated that more than haf of the popul tion was undernourished in 2004, During the 1990s, many counties have succeeded in reducing the proportion of ther population that is undernour ‘shed. However, in 12 counties out of 42 for which statistes are avalab the proportion of undernourished people is estimated to have risen be- ‘ween 1992 and 2004." 66 Sub-Saharan Africa has about 11 percent of the world’s people, but it carries 24 percent of the global disease burden in human and financial costs. 92 Lars Thunell Executive Vice President and CEO, IFC cere pei penne) i cr E eo Ss emtyee fe sane a i si i i, ' i. i naman a Note G1-G7. Income cutis ae gen in 2002 international dlls, adjusted for purchasing pomer party PPP). se tan 500; G2: S00 1,000, G3 1,000 1500; ‘Ge. 1'3002000, Gs: 2.000200, Gt 250-8000, G7: mote than 3,000. The size ‘ofthe bubbles preserts the relative sie ofthe core row a the popedton Expenditures on health by households are limited by severe constraints Consistently across countries, the lowest income groups, which often rep- resent the vast majority of the population, spend more than half of their ‘budgets on food. As income rises the proportion of income spent on food tends to decline sharply, allowing for a greater portion of expenditures to {90 to health and other uses. In Nigeria, the population earring less than USS 500 per year in purchasing power parity units (PPP) represents 59 per cent of total population. Ths income group spends 54 per eent of income ‘on food and 4 per cent on health. At the opposite end of the spectrum, people earring more than USS 3,000, representing less than 0.1 per cent fof the population, spend 30 per cent of income on food and 17 percent of Income on healthPhysicians per 100,000 people, selected countries rrr o> parca omn 2080) Health infrastructure and personnel are still inadequat [As a whole, Africa lacks the infrastructure, facities and trained personnel recessaty to deliver adequate levels of heath services, Sub-Saharan Arica |s home to just 3 per cent of the world’s health workers. Although the ‘umber of physicians tends to be higher in countries with higher GOP per capita, there are wide diflerences even between countries at similar ncome levels. Many countries repor aificultiee in staffing their public health facli- ties. The continent suffers from a drain of ts heath professionals, many of| ‘whom leave to work in developed nations. In 2002, up to 30 per cent of rurses from Senegal and Ghana were working outside sub-Saharan Aria LUNCTAD reports estimate that 15 per cent of the physicians trained in Ethi- ‘pia resided in the United States of America or Canadian 2002. Fagus for other countries were: 20 per cent for Uganda, 10 per cent for Zambia and 43 per cont for Liberia. ‘quintile whe received care outside the home for ick an PRP EE gibaggazaiad See 2087 In a region where public resources are limited, the private sector is already a significant player in health care. ‘The role of forprofit companies, non-profit organizations and social enter prises, along with private insurers and providers, is growing. According toa recent IFC study of tota health expenditure of $16.7 bilion in 2005, roughly {60 per cont—prediominantly out-of-pocket payments by individuals—was f- anced by private partes, and about SO per cent went to private providers. ‘The stud alsa found that mary ofthe region's poor people, both urban and rural, rely on private heath care” Mary form of health inurance schemes exit in sub-Saharan Africa, but they cover only a very small proportion of ‘the population, Government socal seeurty programmes or private sector insurance currently account for only a small proportion of total health ex- penditure in the majority of sub-Saharan AMfican counties. In a study of 12 primarily West African nations, only 2 per cent of the population was er relied in community insurance plans.Scns entage) African countries continue to face the challenge of deadly dis- ‘eases, especially mala Malaria remains a pervasive health problem on the continent, accourting for one death every 30 seconds. The majority of cases occur der the age of ve, Economic losses from malaria in sub-Saharan Africa have bbeen estimated to amount to USS 12 bilion annualy Infection by malaria is also a persistent cause of poverty, because weakness caused by the aisoase in adults can severely impair ther ability to work, iting the mears of veli- hood for families and communities. uecessfuly fighting malaria supposes 3 holistic approach, which includes: vector conta by erviranmental manage- rent and use of bio- and ether pesticides), prevention, of which a success {al example is investment in insectcide-reated bednets, use of affordable Antimalarial treatments; beter data on prevalence and transmission of the ‘iseaze; and community involvement. Percentage of children 12:23 months old whe received Pr er oerany Between 2000 and 2006, deaths from measles in Africa have dropped by 91 per cent, from an estimated 396,000 to 36,000, thus achieving the United Nations goal to cut measles deaths by 90 per cent four years early, This suc cess reflects national Governments commitment to fully implement mea sles reduction strategies, including vaccinating all children before thee fst birthday ana providing a second opportuity tebe vaccinated through mass campaigns."Te) HIV prevalence rate (ads 15-59) in 2005 Currently, more than 22 million Africans live with HIV. In 2007, 1.6 milion ofthe 2.1 milion AIDS deaths wordvide occured in At rica” Inthe 38 hardest hit African counties, te projected tha there wil be 19 milion additonal deathe due to AIDS between 2010 and 2015, * HIV/AIDS rates exhibit a lot of variation within countries. Successfully a dressing the epidemic supposes a fine knowledge ofits spatial configura- tion as wel as the main propagation and transmission factors. New inf tions aro statistialy linked to transport infrastructure (vansit roads, ports, urban cones) and people cen profession cling the warspor sector) are more at Note: Prevalence figures or ies have been subject 0 ete Yesrtoyest compar Zon of prevalence rats given in UNAIDS reports are netstat stealy mening I “rect approsches bases on death statis port to lower numbers most courts > ONS recent revised te MV figures for Aen agrfealy dowmwarae CT ee Sous ONDESA 2007 The AIDS epidemic has already caused massive changes in the population structure of some African countries, Whereas life expectancy has risen in most African countries during the second half of the last century, it has declined by almost 30 years in Botswana, 25 years in Zimbabwe and 15 years in South Africa since the beginning of the AIDS epidemic. In some other counties of the conti- nent, the observed fall of average Ie expectancy reflects other types of ‘events like conflicts. Both types of events, by severely affecting family structures, asset distribution and labour supply, can have a tremendous Impact on povertynn ee en) Peer Tyrer Access to antiretroviral therapy is considered crucial for the treatment of infected people. The number of peop! ing such treatment hs increased rapidly lover the last fve years. In sub-Saharan Africa, this number more than ‘doubled from 310,000 to 810,000 within the last year. About one ssth of the 4.7 milion people who need treatment now receive it. There are ma- jor diferences in progress between countries. Coverage has increated very rapialy to levels of 50 per cent or higher in some countries, such as Botswana and Uganda, while others stl have coverage levels below 10 per cent. South Africa now accounts for one quarter of those receiving treatment in the region, with approximately half provided through r= vate sector faites ‘The number of children orphaned by AIDS in sub-Saharan Africa is projected to continue to increase rapidly. [Although a massive increase in the availabilty of antiretroviral therapy could bring the projected figures down to rome exten, is expected that AIDS or hans wil ncrease rapidly inthe next years. In Botswana, Lesotho, Swazlond fnd Zimbabwe, more than one in five children wil be orphaned in 2010.” AIDS is more likly than other causes of death to create double orphans ‘Therefore, countres with high levels of HIVIAIDS will a0 have a dzpropor ‘sonate number of double orphans as the epidemic advances. Sub-Saharan ‘Aiea had almost 2s many double orphans in 2003 (77 milion) as Asa (3.9 milion), although Asia has about four tmes more children than sub-Saharan Aiea and twice as many total orphans. EE The vision which fueled our struggle for freedom... will be needed if we are to bring AIDS under control. This is a war.a2 Nelson Mandela Former South African PresidentINFRASTRUCTURE AND SERVICES inking Lack of access to safe drinking water and sanitation remains widesprea Many countries registered encouraging improvements of their coverage ‘ates between 1990 and 2004. However, access remains fa from being uni- \Versal even i the richest countries ofthe region. For bath water and santa. tion, there is sharp diference between urban and rural areas, the latter ‘often lagging behind. There is also a gap between water and sanitation wich has important consequences for health. Untreated sewage ‘efluents contaminate drinking-water sources, as wel as rivers and w sheds that ae ertieal fr agreutute, food resources and wildifeerrr ery mea peng of pepe Cera arr) Compared with Europe and the Middle East, Aca at right sean ftom space mor dare wth» fw bright {pots coresponding tothe North Afean coast the Iie valy in Egypt South Ate, the coast ear the Congo an the Niger Delta, More than 500 million sub-Saharan Africans do not have access to modern energy. ‘Access to elecvicty, as well as electricity con ‘sumption, vary widely across countries, Per capita elecricty consumption in South Africa | about a hundred times the average con sumption in Sahel countries. Within counties, access to electricity tends to be higher in ur bban areas and to increase with income, The costof ighting with alternative energy sources ‘kes substantial portions af income inthe poorest households. Lack of access ‘te modern energy results in ar potion, aeute health problems, and environ rental problems lined to overconsumption or inadequate management of ‘wood resources Sub-Saharan Africa accounts for over a tenth of the world’s population, but generates only 3 por cont of global electricity. ‘Alarge share of (71 percent is produced by South Afica alone. Although coal-fred power stations predominate in South Africa, the rest of the conti- “4 Sentvemalargeydopensen on hyroponer The ned lo mere ponet Ealions in the rest of the continent has long been recognized. In many countries, electrety demand continues to grow, fuelled in particular by ‘grout in incomes and rural-urban migrationseerie) Read length, road denaty, and popul ‘elected countrioe Sore Won Bk, 2006 Roads are still insufficiently developed. Low population densities in some countves like Gabon or Botswana tvans- late into high per capita cost of road networks. Countries with high popu- lation densities, Ike Rivands, the Gambia and Nigeria, tend to have more developed road networks. In addition tothe length of road networks, poor ‘quality of roads due to inadequate maintenance isa recurent problem in many countries. Lack of adequately maintained roads often translates into ‘obstacles to economic development, especially in countries where agrieu- ture stll constitutes the economic backbone and acces to markets from rural areas remains 3 critical problem, ee eg po 1908 pel it Sec: Worl Bar, 2006 [Note Sie of he oubbe: population density Rural population within 2 km of an all-seaton road peer ‘Seu: Wold Bark, 2006,eee ‘Access te information and communication technologies (ICT) is low but increasing rapidly. In terms of access to ICT, sub-Saharan Africa hat lagged behind the tends ‘observed in other regions. Intemet access rates are much lower in sub-Sa haran Altea (1-3 subserber per 1,000 people in 2006) than in Asia (8) and Oceania (29.3)." ener rT Mobile phones have taken off rapidly. ‘While telephone acess ower than in ater parts ofthe world, with no countries registering mare than 2 fixed telephone connections per 10 peopl, the landscape InICT is changing auterapily in many countries, due tothe extraordinary fast Uptake of mobile phones, The continent has the highest ratio of mobile to total ‘wephone auscrbers of any region and the highect mobile cedar growth rate Growth over the past S years averaged around 50 percent year on yearn Nige- fia, the opening of the mobile rarketn 2001 has resulted in a massve increase inthe number of sbserbers, rom 2500 in 1999 to 323 milion in 2006 With tmobile phones are azzacated innovalve senices lke remote barking and other financial sevices 3¢ wel a Intemet accees. This development of mabile phones represents ore promising opporsuniy for development, mani by alowing de- velopment of new business models to reach poor communties mare efcent eu! CTs Taans laa\STRUCTURE OF THE ECONOMY are nenenen ert vr n rd Se Wa Developmen indenter 2007 National economies are very diverse. Some economies are stil predominantly based on agriculture, including ma- jor African economies like Ethiopia. At the opposite ond of the spectrum, ‘gricuture represents less than 10 per cont of GOP in Botswana, Seycheles, South Africa, Maurcus, Angola, Gabon and Namibia, Heawy dependence on primary commodities remains a common feature of production, exports and growth inal the subregions. The majority of Af- an countries are dependent on oil and minerals ora limited range of ag ricultural commodities uch as tea, coffee, cotton and cocoa, Ths expozes the continent to external shocks and maxes economic diversfication atop privity for growth policies onthe continent. Nigeria and South Africa account for more than half of sub- Saharan Africa's GDP. Economic figures for sub-Saharan Africa as a whole can be misleading, be- cause averages often hide a high varablty of situations and trends. Ths is accentuated by the fact that two economies, South Africa and Nigeria, represent more than half of sub-Saharan Alrea’s GDP The prominence of these two countries has not changed significantly since 1990. South Africa's ‘economy is largely dominated by services, which account for two thirds of GDP. Niger's, by contrast, i predominantly industrial, reflecting the impor ‘ance of the oll and gas sector. eee eeein tn ep fb en ‘etn Preiserreel SEEEEEAUGGLE Exports have increased sharply in the last years. [Atica's share of world exports had been declining for decades to 1.7 per cent in 1998, reflecting the inereasingly marginal position of Arica in world commerce, The vigorous growth of Alrean exports since 1998 seems to have reversed this secular rend G6 The dramatic new trend in South-South eco- nomic relations is transforming traditional patterns of economic development, and this is nowhere more evident than in African- Asian trade and investment flows. 02 Gobind Nankani View President for Africa the World Bank Composition of exports, rolected countries South Africa aside, exports are highly dependent on raw materials. Raw materiale constitute more than 60 per cent of sub-Saharan Alrea's total exports, second only to the Middle East and North Aiea region, By con: ‘wast the structure of exports in Latin America and Asia has become increas inaly aiverstfed from ravi materials. In Asa, ther hare in total exports fe ‘ram 40 per cent in 1980 to less than 10 percent today In Latin America, the share fell from 55 per cent in 1980 to 40 per cent today.Senne rane Shan ects abyyageagad Sous Wed ark, 2006, Asia is rising as Africa's trade partner. More than a quarter of African exports were headed to Asia in 2005, com- pared to only 9 per cant in 1990 and 14 per cent in 2000. The volume of {rade between Africa and Aa is now almost on par with Aiea’s exports to the United States and the European Union, Afia’s traditional trading part- ies, Since 2000 there has been a massive increace in trade and investment flows between Aiea and Asia, Merchandise exports to China have grown by almost 50 per cent each year between 1999 and 2004, ana at more than 10 per cent a year with India and the rest of Asia, Imports of merchand from China and India have also grown very rapidly in recent years. Tis ‘cent acceleration of commercial exchanges with India and China reflects the ‘two Asian giants, which are accompanied by er anes pee prers Na ll yy AG pp fy ‘Sub-Saharan Africa is still weakly integrate: agricultural markets. high-value ‘Sui Saharan Ariss agricultural exports are concentrated in afew comme ties (coffee, tea, cocoa, sugar, cotton, bananas). For almost half of the cour- ‘res in sub-Saharan Alia, agrcutural commodities ate the main exports. For mary of them, reliance on one single agrcuftural commodity reaches be- tween 50 and 75 per cent of total commodity exports.” With the exception ‘of cotton, over the last two decades African producers have steadily been losing market share to Asian and Latin American competitors. Non-tarif barriers such az sanitary and phytosantary (SPS) standards wl likly remain key obstacles for many African countries, Other supply-side constraints that have been identified as major botlenecks in Afica inclide poory funded research and development, relatively weak links to global supply chain, a oot logistis infrastructure to be able to deliver products atthe price and in the ‘quality and timing required by international buyer.Tourism dominates services exports, both for the region overall and for several countries. Iv aleo exhibits the fastest growth rate of services export for the region. Tourism is 2 crucial source of foreign exchange for many courtvies, in sore countries coming before the main agrcutural commodites. in Ethiopia, tourism is the third-highest export earner, just after coffee and cil seeds.” In terms of earnings, South Africa is the mast important tourst destination south of the Sahara, followed by Mauritius, the United Republic of Tanzania land Botswana” There is great potential for further development of the Industry in the region. The development ofthe tourism sector ean provide {an important source of employment. It could aso bring positive spillover effects in terms of improved vansporaton, enhanced communicatonsin- ‘rastvucture, and transfers of technology, knowledge, and managerial skills, es pers “ma regred ests ues ‘The business climate tends to work against investment in ‘many countri ‘Time to start a business can be very long. The time for export also varies cor- siderably across counties. While island counties or counties with coastal ‘access lke Seychelles, Cape Verde, Maurits and the Gambia have relatively “hort times far exper, landlocked counties like Chad, Burundi and Fritea, 2: well 3 Burkina Fazo and Angola register very long times for expor.ern ed ‘The breadth and depth of financial systems remain weak in most countries. In the majoriy of sub-Saharan African countries, itis estimated that less ‘than 20 por cent of the adult population has access to formal sources of nance. Depth of financial systems, as seen through the rato of private credit {0 GOP, is azo weak compared to other developing counties. South Africa presents an exception, with fail developed financial markets ‘Among the factors that contribute to low access rates are the low popula: ‘von densities and communications and transportation deficiencies, Most sub-Saharan African countries have lower branch and ATM penetration than developing counvies in ether regions. Afferdabilty is another imporant barrier Low levels of income and regularity of income flaws have tended to make large parts of the population “unbankable” in the eyes of trad \onal financial service providers”rere The rocent years have witnessed a trond towards a deepening of financial markets, notably since 2000. Recent technological advances, such as mobile branches or banking by mo- bile phone, have recenty helped extend access. By contrast, Aircan capi tal markets are sill underdeveloped. The stock market capitalization of the whale continent is estimated at $800 billon, of which South Alves itself makes up $600 billion, Regional or subregional integration of financial and capital markets i stl weak, However, there are some encouraging rend. In 2001, the eight mem- bbers of the West African Economic and Monetary Union (WAEMU) set up @ regional treasury bill market. With all countries issuing securities, the market has been growing rapidly, boosted by tax and regulatory incentives, Cross- border sales of treasury bills among WAEMU countries point to a growing integration of financial markets in hat region.”AGRICULTURE Trends of share of agriculture in GDP, 1971-2004 “aot, bled pag of OF About 20 per cont of sub-Saharan Africa's GDP is generated by agriculture, a ‘Agriculture sill dominates the economy of many counties in the region. ‘Athough the economies of South and East Asia uted to be more depen- ddert on agriculture than Aiea in the 1970s, the importance of agriculture has declined in both regions, whereas the share of agriculture in the tub Saharan African economy has only slighty decreased. In many countries, agriculture is the main source of employment. In atleast 20 counties, more than 70 per cent of the labour force works in agriculture, Crop production and ivestck husbandry account for about halfof pp household income, The poorest members of socety are those who are most dependent on agriculture fr jobs and income, Average agricultural value add- ced per worker is low in many countries, reflecting a low degree of mechaniza- tion and limited penetration of improved seeds and inputs such as fertizes. ‘arent aed per won 20888)oe ee pier ute end ee enc! Agriculture is still largely oriented towards subsistence agriculture, From a study undertaken by IFPRI on the years 1996-2000, for sub-Saharan ‘Africa asa whole 72 per cont ofthe food traded was fr sale in domestic mar- kets for food staples Traditional and non-traditional exports constiuted oniy 22 per cent of total trade. Food trade between Afican counties ie very lm ited, Southern Afica andin particular South Africa are more oriented towards ‘exports than the other subregions. By contrast in Eastern Arca 80 per cent (ofa food traded was for sale in domestic market for food staples.” G6 Africa is the only region where overall food se- curity and livelihoods are deteriorating. We will reverse this trend by working to create an envi- ronmentally sustainable, uniquely African Green Revolution. When our poorest farmers finally prosper, all of Africa will benefit. 42 Kofi Annan former UN Secretary General Not: Index base 109 n 161 Food production in most of sub-Saharan Africa has not kept pace with the population increase over the past four decades. ‘Sub-Saharan Alia i the one region where per capita food production is fither in decline, or roughly constant at a level that less than adequate.” In Alrica as a whole, food consumption exceeded demestc production by 50 per cent in the drought;prone mid-1980s and more than 30 per contin the mid-19902. [At the subregional level, during the last 18 years only Western Abia has succeeded in inreasing per capita food production signfieanty In South- fom Avie, food production has declined and sulfers from high varablity, lecting vuinerabiliy to weather conditions of rainfed agriculture in arid for semiarid regionseee nen rrr) Altica's main commodities are cassava, sugar cane, yams and maize. Sor {ghum, plantain and rice are also important food staples. For all those commodities except sugar cane and sugar products, yields registered in Africa are generally lower than thove registered in Latin America or Asia, Lower productivties in Afica result from a combination of factors, including: high dependence on rain-fed agriculture, low and declining sell fertility due to low levels of arganie matter inthe soll lower use of Improved seeds, ferilizers and other inputs than in other regions; rela- tive fragmentation of land holdings; low level of mechanization; and low levels of access to credit for farmers Sn rs SeeCompared to other regions, irrigation is much less developed in sub-Saharan Africa, Only 4 per cent of agricultural land is currently under irrigation. In arid for semiarid regions, lack of irrigation infrastructure constitutes @ con- straint to increases in productivity, Some parts of the continent have the parts of the continent, however, fenewable water is limited and will come under greater pressure in the future due to population increase. There, agricultural demand for water will compete with inereasing demands for domestic and industrial pure poses, Integrated water resource management approaches, which have been adopted by an increasing number of countries, will be needed to allocate water efficiently.Cee peepee ne igh/low market access classes Lack of access to markets constitutes a binding constraint to the agricultural sector in most of the continent. ‘According to a study on Eastern and Central African counties done by |FPR,, transport costs and other internal rade barriers such as marketing cost have a major impact on agricultural GDP. Improving transport infar “Rructure looks to be critical to allow for linkage of rural areas with wroan ‘markets, and to allow for production of products aimed at export markets that need to reach borders within limited time. Wel-functioning transport networks are also key 28a protection agaist local weather shocks inorder to allow for easy food transfers between surplus and deficit regions Raina variability and GDP growth in Ethiopia pebeebee krone PEPEEEEEEEEP EEE EEE ile ‘Seu: Word ar, 2006 Rainfall variability deeply affects many economies that are largely dependent on rain-fed agriculture, In adlition to direct impacts on agricutural ouspu, rainfall varaality also affects transport, power production and waterintensive industry. Ethiopia fs an extreme example of such dependence of the whole economy on rin. ‘According to a World Bank study incorperating historical rainfall variability Into a model of the Ethiopian economy decreases projected GOP growth rates by 25 t0 40 per cent, compared to projections from models bazed on sverage rainfall” Devising rsk mitigation and adaptation strategies wall integrated into eco- nomic planning is ertcal to addressing vulnerability to weather in mary [Afrean counties, Examples of such strategies already put in piace include ‘early warning and response systems for drought (Ethiopia); an integrated food management system in Mozambique; diemination of meteorologi- ‘eal information and incorporation into farmer’ practices (choice of eraps, ‘ecsions to sow ete) in Mali and the introduction of indexcbased weather Insurance products for farmors in Malawi.”High value agricultural exports from Africa ‘Organic cotton in West and East Afica: Some smalholder farmers in West and East Africa se turning t0 organi production, Organs cotton production began in Uganda and Tanzania in 1994, In Senegal in 1995, nd in Borin and Mal in 1996, but adoption has been slow despite higher returns tnd lower production corte High certfieason costs nd the fat that yields (peal drop unt efforts to improve sel feslty and integrated pest contro mea ‘urs bear fut are important bariers to adoption. SS ne te conver pineapple production to she hig vctare. South Africa citvus and supply chan organization In addition o investments in productivity and aval fy, suppliers must now undertake important i vestments in terms of organization if they want to penetrate intemational market. South Airean et fis agtbusinesses are among the fe on the conti- ‘nent which have been engaged in forging aliances ‘ith international pariersin the United States and sleewhore ‘Confronted with increasing competion from a higher yielding cul var grown in Costa Rea, Ghana hes put in lace » concerted strategy 2 yelding cltvar With ‘donor support, the government playing an important ole in th pro: ‘cers through fs Agncultural Services Support and investment Program {AgSSIM In additon to supporting crop conversion among the smal holders, othe actions include developing local capacities in tissue cul ture multipiation techniques and investments in cold-chain facies and other export infra The producer share ofretal prices of agricultural commodities has systematically declined during the last ‘three decades, atthe same time as consumer prices in developed country market for coffe and especially specialty coffees, have ineressed substantially Obtaining trademarks for coffee grown In Harr, Vegachefe, nd Sidamo allows Ethiopia to decide which distributors wil grant icanses to soll those specialty coffees 43nd under what som The wil allow growers to retains higher share of he profs Investments in quality and food salty assurance systems are key factors behind Uganda and Tar Zana emergence ar important suppers of Feh filets — 2 high unit value expor that happens to bbe among the most dynamic commedttes in world trade. Production of fich filets has stimulated the = development ofthe animal fed sector which vss Schnastearaman row, aswal as hepecking ord logistes sector, Oyerexplotaton offsheries stocks, however, could lithe industry’ exparsion. Product diferentation could also be improved Nie Perch from Lake Vieo "isa oldin doveloped country market without ary teference tis origin and characteristics Kenya isthe largest exporter of fresh vegetables in sub Saharan Acs anc is market share inthe EU is second ‘only t0 Morocco. In. addition, the ‘county is by far the largest exporter ‘of cut lowers in Afica and one ofthe largest in the world Public investments tn logistics infra structure for ainfeighted perishable ‘exports nd in quali and food safety assurance systems have been instur ‘ental to Kenya's export dversifes: tion success, helping to atwact private ssctor investment. Substantial private investments have bbeen undertaken by the leading com pies in the fresh produce indury, Stimulated by a liberal investment re- ‘gime, and feal incentives forhortc- tural exports [Namibia and Botswana ae the largest African (boneless) beef export erst the EU. Tobe able to face competition from Brazil end Argen ‘tna, both countries have undertaken substancal public investment n lofder to meet stringent impor requirements [Namibia's marketshare in the EU has grown faster than Botswana's and unit value have alzo increased more. A. key determinant of Na: riba’ suecess has been the Farm Assured Namibian Meat Scheme, ‘managed by the government-owned, privately financed Meat Board of Nambia Under this cheme, both ul raceablty and stet vate: rary and animal welfare standards conforming to EU requirements are tensured, No other comparable scheme exists in Aries todayDEVELOPMENT FINANCE re prec pray roe pieeiaing Domestic savings and investment remain low. Relative to developing countries in Asia and Latin America, sub-Saharan Alriea as the lowest investment ratios" Over the peried 2000-2005, do- mostic investment az 8 proportion of GOP remained stable at 18 percent in sub-Saharan Africa, while growing from 30 to 36 per cent in East Asia and the Pacific. Low savings are a main factor for the observed low investment rate in the region. Over the period 2000-2005, domestic savings ae a pro- portion of GOP wate 17 per cent in sub-Saharan Africa and 26 per cant in the Middle East and North Africa In East Asia and the Pacifi, they reached more than 40 per cent atthe end ofthe period. There are wide aflerences in savings patterns acroze countries, Botswana, the Congo, Gabon and Ni- geria have savings rates greater than 30 per cent. The majority (28 coun- ‘ties of the remaining courtres in the ragion for which data are available have positive but low savings ratios. Eleven counvies had negative savings rates over the period 2000-2004, 46 African countries need to mobilize domestic resources, and receive the support promised by development partners. In some areas, particularly in infrastructure, the private sec- tor can provide important co-financing. a Ban Ki-moon UN Secretary-General, 2008Sources of external fnance in sub-Saharan Africa External resources are crucially important in financing develop- ment in the region. In recent yoars, the importance af private capital flows has been compa- rable to that of official fows. However, the former tend to be more volat ‘as well ar concentrated in 2 few countries in the region. A large part of private capital flows are in the form of equity, as opposed to debt In fact, Between 1998 and 2002 net private debt flows to the region were negar tive. This decline in debt was accompanied by a shift from short to medi- lum: and long-term debt, In tur, lage part of the net equity flows £0 the region has taken the form of foreign direct investment (FD), as opposed ‘0 portfolio equity inflows, The later have shown a great deal of volatility, reflecting sudden changes in investors’ perceptions of risks and retutns ‘Aggregate FDI flows have shown less volatility and more than doubled {om 1998 to 2005. However, the region as a whole, with an estimated $17.6 bill FDI flow in 2008, sill attracts less FOl than many individual developing countries.” Ue tense) } i i © a i 5 i i i $ é ‘Seu Wold Dovalopet nds 297, In the last decade, the bulk of FDI has been concentrated on a handful of countries. South Africa, Nigeria and Angola alone have represented about half of total net FDI from 1994 to 2005. Alarge proportion of FDI goes to the oll sector. ‘Over the last 15 years, 70 per cont of FDI has been invested in five out of| the seven Afican ol-exporting countries as well as in South Africa. Euro- pean and North American counties have been the main foreign investors in sub-Saharan Aiea. However, FDI rom developing counties, particularly {rom South Aries, China and Indi, as well as from Malaysia and Brazil, has increased tubstantally =[ener es Tne poe ete ‘we tn 205 UE int a id has grown, but needs to be increased to meet agreed targets. Since the beginning of the century, the continent has benefited from sub- Stantal inflows of effcial development assistance (ODA). After the Millenn- lum Summit, numerous high-level international inittives have put a renewed ‘emphasis on the need for developed countries to substantily increase aid for sub-Saharan Africa, At that Summit, developed countries also agreed te roughiy double ODA flows to Africa in 2010 compared to 2000. A sub: stantial part ofthe increase in id flows in the most recent years has come from debt relief. Aid other than debt relief should increase in coming years ‘Fcommitments to double aid to Africa are to take effect” Reber aes See OECD, 207 ‘ODA receipts across African countries show a wide variability. When caluated on a per capita basis or compared to counties’ national ine comes, ODA receipt vary widely across sub-Saharan ican counties. Between 2001 and 2005, net ODA receipts for sub-Saharan Aca (meting regional ad) ‘represented about 4 per cont of GNI, or sigh under USS 31 per capita, ODA receipts have represented more than 30 per cent of GN in courtes recovering from wars such as Burundi the Democratic Republic ofthe Congo, rive ibe ‘ia apd Siera Leone, By convast, ODA flows have represented less than 1 per ‘ent of rational income in countries such as South Arica, Mauritius, Gabon, Cte lore and Botswana,Note: Remitarce dts need tbe ncepretewith are, given thatthe reliably af ov ‘rage appears toler sgnieony between courte ss wel aor rua cournes ‘rom yeorta yest Remittances are an important contributor to sub-Saharan Africa's ‘Although stilless important han nthe Middle Eat, North ica and Asi, remit tance flows have grown stealy overtime and tis extmated that they account for atleast 15 per cent af sub-Saharan Areas GDP Far individual counts, ‘especaly those wih high out migration rates, remittance lows are central ‘othe ‘economy, Fer some countries, remittances per capt are of the same order of ‘magnitude as ODA" Remittances can simulate consumption and svestment In receiving countries, help relax foreign exchange constraints and convibute to ppoveryalevation. Ther contribution to development, however, i stil not well own although there evidence that they are more directed to consumption than investmentNATURAL RESOURCES Se 2 8S Salat Africa's large and diverse biological heritage is at risk in all subregions. ‘Avout 20 per cant of mammal species, 10 per cent of bird species and 25 percent of amphibian species are classified as threatened by the World Con- Eervation Union. Available trend show that biodiversity lssis continuing, al- ‘though not faster than in other regions of the world. Among the main causes of biodiversity loss are land-use change, overexpleitation of natural resourc- fs, polation of ecosystems and the introduction of exotie species. Climate change is now considered as a main treat for biodiversity and natural eco- systems in the future. Changes in temperature and rainfall could cause high rates of species lass in specie biomes such as high mountain ecosystems and boreal ecosystems suchas the sueculent Karoo in South Africa * Sub-Saharan Africa has more than 2 milion square Kilometres of protected areas (terrestrial and marine). From less than $00,000 km2 in 1950, protected areas have increased rap- ‘aly until the late 1970s, and ata slower pace since. Whereas atthe global level terrestrial protected areas now cover 12 per cent af the land area, thus ‘meeting the physical target of the Paris tothe United Nations Convention ‘on Boaversity, in many officially protected areas effective protection of the ecosystems and biodiversity remains a concer, due to inadequate protec: tion funding, Only about 06 per cent of marine areas are protected.” re eee ere ens ‘Seu: Mion Esato asa 205 Not: Red Listinices ate based on he numberof pecs in each Red st eatery and on ‘he amber erangng tategore: between nicest 43 recut of genuine moroverent ("deterioration status Decreasing values ove ime eae oso Spacis Noes Seas ONEP WOME, Gestapo 2007Cet Between 1990 and 2005, sub-Saharan Africa lost an estimated 47 million hectares of forest. The forests of Alia ae largely concentrated in the tropical zones of West- ‘or and Central, Eastern and Southern Afriea, With more than 133 milion hectares of forests, the Democratic Republic of the Congo alone has mo: than 25 per cent ofthe region's forest cover!” Forests play an important economic role in many countries, by providing ecosystem services for resident populations as well az being a source of food and other non-timber products Between 1990 and 2005, the annual rate of deforestation in the region was about 0.7 per cent, with broad differences between countvies. Ac- cording to FAO statistics, Bruni, Togo and Nigeria lost more than 30 per cont of their forested areas during that period Logging roads are rapidly expanding in the Congo rainforest. In large tracks of unexploited forest, deforestation tends to progress along transport routes. Road density inthe Central ican rainforest has increased dramatically since the 1970s, as evidenced by satelite imagery. The highest logging road densities are in Cameroon and Equatorial Guinea, while the rest rapidly changing area is in northern Congo, where the rate of ro3d construction more than quadrupled between 1976 and 2003. Out of about 10 milion square Kilometres of Cental African rainforest, more than 600,000 square klometres of forest ae presently under logging concessions, while 1D per cent of the area is protected Map of deforestation hotspots, tropical forests Deforestation is cause for concern in parts of the continent. ‘Although at the continent scale deforestation has been less intense than in Latin America, some areas in Africa are among the global hotspots for deforestation. This the case of the Congo forest, but alzo of forest on the eastern coast of Southern Africa, as well as in Madagascar. Indust Jogging in Central Arica is the most extensive land use, and the clearing fof those forests could significantly increase carbon emissions ‘Cental African rainforest road Read constructed through swamp Photo by Nadine Laporte. forest to reach the Loudougou ‘concession in northern Congo. Photo by Nadine Laporte.ee ee er) % 4 Note: Forest cover changes from the 19701 to cca 2000 ar shown nthe main gure. Forest ever nthe 1980s chown nthe ower ight set Boxes onthe le sow forest Cover at wall ss frat ne od "slated patches. The bocimatcvones uted ot ‘poring cover ana rates of change are provides inthe Forest Zones ise. Madagascar is a biodiversity hot spot, with a high proportion of endemic species, However, much of the island's biodiversity is under threat from human pressure, in parieular deforestation. Madagascar’s forest cover decreased Substantially over the last 50 years, from 27 per cent of the island in the 4950s to only 16 per cent cirea 2000, Taking the fragmentation of forest into consideration, the decrease wat oven more drastic, From the 1950: +0 2000, the area of interior forest more chan 1 km from anon forest edge decreased from 90,000 kn! to lees than 29,000 kin, and the area in patch: fe of greater than 100 km” decreased by more than hall”Water scarcity will increas in many countrie ‘Although some African countrias have high annual averages ofa ‘ter per capita, mary other already or soon wil face water stress (1 less per person annually) 0” scarey conditions (1,000 mor less per person annually Currently, 18 counties in Arica ae subject to water stress of water scarcity. Afurher 11 countries wil jin hem inthe next 25 years “The Great Lake region, seonfom spect. Increased water scarcity in the future in many countries of the region implies a need for efficient management of shared water resources. ‘Atiea's main rivers, the Nile, the Congo and the Niger, other tributaries, 235 well as Africa's main lakes (Lake Chad, Lake Vietora and Lake Tanganyi ka), are shared by many countries. Regional cooperation on river basin man- agement has gained momentum recently. The Nile Basin Intiatve (NB), ‘originally designed in 1999 as a way to share scientific information, today brings together ministers from the basin counties "to achieve sustainable socio-economic development through equitable utlzation of, and benefit from, the common Nile basin water rezources”"" In the Niger basin, the Niger River Basin Authority, based in Niamey, provides riparian courses with scientific and technical information aimed to inform decision-making, in particular as regards the selection of locations for new dams.”DESERTIFICATION, DROUGHT AND CLIMATE CHANGE Suen UNEP ERD, 757 && Drought is the silent killer—the natural catas- trophe that is only too easily forgotten. aa Hama Arba Diallo Former Executive Secretary of the United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification, 2005 “More than 30 per cent ofthe world’s dryiands ae found in susceptible dry- land regions in North Africa, the Sahel and the southern part of Africa.” ‘They cover almost 2 bilion hectares in 25 counties, representing 65 per cent of the continental land mass. Over 400 milion people lve inthe dry lands of Africa and the majority of them are t area registers an annval population growth ra Dryland areas in Africa are under threat from deforestation, coil erosion, nutrient mining, recurrent drought and climate change, potentially result ing in land degradation and desertification, and aggravated poverty. Sus tainable agriultural innovations are key to limiting adverse impacts onthe ‘environment and on the livelihoods of rural populationsPercentage change in vegetation greenness in the fren Secs Herman Anjan pd Tar 208, ete: vera ves in wagetaon greenness throughout the period 1982-2003 bated on Irorthy Aavarced Very Tigh Reccuvan Radiometer Normatres DiterenceVagerston Index (AVHRR NOVI ine sees, Percentages enres changes average NOVI Between PH ard 20, rrr errr not predicted by picts ‘Swe: Harman, oyamba an Taker 2005 Nate: Ovrl rar nth idl NOV hroughout the pariod 19822003 bated on Tearenion of vegetation greenness YAVHRE NEV on Smart camalstve rane ‘Slopes of erdual NOM tod ines between 1982 tnd 2000 ae spree rv of Nowe ‘The Sahel has been greening in recent years, Greening of the Sahel as observed from satelite images is now well es: ‘ablished, confirming that tends in rainfall are the rain but not the only river af change in vegetation caver For the period 1982-2003, the over all trond in monthly maximum Normalized Difference Vegetation index (NDVI 's positive over a large portion of the Sahel region, reaching up to 50 per cent increase in parts of Mali, Mauritania and Chad, and confirming previous findings at a regional scale Local conditions seem to have influenced the extent of vegetation recovery. Some areas have greened more than what would be expected from rainfall recovery alone. In some regions (e.g., Niger Delta of Mal; south-western Mauritania}, increaces in vegetation can be explained by an expansion of lnngation. For other regions, such as the Cental Plateau of Surkna Fase, recovery of vegetation greenness beyond what would be expected from the recovery of rainfalls thought to be the result of increased investment and improvements in sol and water conservation techniques. Some areas hhave registred less greening than expected from rainfall patterns.The Niger has witnessed reforestation and population increase at the same time —— 1984 Sure E58 na the 205 “The Lams plsteaun the Niger in 1904 fbove] ond 2004 foi Better conservation and improved rainfall have led to atleast 6 mil= ‘An evaluation projet under- lion newly twee-covered acres inthe Niger, achieved largely without taken in tree areas ofthe Ni- relying on large-scale planting of trees or other expensive methods ger in 2005 (Tahoua, Tllab often advocated for halting desertification. Moreover, these gains and Maradi points to encour- have come at a time when the population of the Niger has grown, aging results in the locations rapidly, confounding the conventional wisdom that population of projects initiated co fight growth leads to the loss of ees and accelerates land degradation. deserifieation with support from donors, compared ‘0 wae vilage neighbowhood in 1975 areas where no such project {s!etorenterentone and in 2003, was implemented. Degraded {SPOT image) Black dots ae tees lands have been reclaimed ‘Windbvesing Ses cnsting f ees and restored to crop produc- tion by local populations Water tables have risen sige rifleantly, which has -made possible the development of Yegetable gardens that have become significant produce fers at the rational level. In the three regions studied, yields have increased both for milet and sorghum. Side benefits of land regeneration have included reduced vul- rerabilty of women and re duced emigration rates *Note: Decies se based onal regions, nat oly Aes Africa is most vulnerable to extreme weather events. According t global study undertaken by Columbia University and the Werld Bank, Africa is not stricken by more natural disasters than other continents However impacts of such disasters tend to be particulary high in Arica, both Interms ofnumber of people affected and in terms of mortality rom droughts and floods. A global study of loses from drought found that drought mortal- ‘ty hot spots are concentrated exclusively in sub-Saharan Aiea” While economic loss hot spots for drought tend to inchide more devel ‘oped regions, for example in southern Europe and the Middle East, Mexico, rortheart rail and north-east China, a sizeable portion of African territory |S als located in the top decles for economic losses due to drought."ieee eerste ‘Niger River in Niamey, Niger Variations in climatic conditions have been observed for along time in Africa Changes in rainfall patterns observed inthe Sahel inthe 1970s and 1980s have ‘iramatical affected livetnoods in that region, which already had to cope with high inegular and unpressctabe rainfall patterns. Decreases in rainfall have had profound repereusions onthe flows of the main rivers that provide an esser- tial source of lvelinod for the population of ard areas. Decines in river ows and runef in those regions have typcally been more pronounced than those in ‘ainfal” Decreased rer fiows have contiouted tothe shrinking of Lake Chad, fone of the largest lakes of Aca, Recent years have registered somewhat more favorable rain conditions. However, exteme weather events have also becomeoa is Sere Wok 2067 Impacts fram sea-level rise will be high for some African countries. Climate change is expected to Wanslate into sea-level rise during the next century. The extent of the rise i till uncertain, According to World Bank o timates, less than a quarter of 1 per cent of sub-Saharan Afriea’s GDP would bbe impacted by a 1 metre sea-level rise. Only a very smal percentage of the region's area and agricultural land would be afected." However, some countries would be much more severely afeeted. The coun ‘tes with gteatest land atea impact would be the Gambia and, to lessor ‘extent, Guinea-Bissau, Banjul, the capital city of the Gambia, is particularly Vulnerable to sea-level rie and the entire city could be lost with a T-mete fise in sea level. A major ecological and economic consequence of se3- vel rise would be the destruction of wetlands and mangroves, which cur. rently provide ivelhoods to coastal populations, Approximately 15 per cent ‘of Benin’ wetland would be impacted by a I-metre sea-level rise.” Note: Tension these maps is defined based on panintion densesconiional on verge ema antl Climate change, by modifying rainfall patterns, could exacerbate ‘water tensions on the continent. (On most ofthe continent, population growth s going to impose addtional pressure on water resources compared to the present situation, in paticu- Turin the Sahel but also in Eastern Alfie However, changes in rainfall wl modulate substantially the demographic impacts, and may have very dif ferent implications in diferent subregions and at the country level. Many cimate models projoct a wetter Sahel in the coming decades, a¢ well 3: trier condivons for Eastern Africa, these trends materalize, pressure on ‘he water resources in the Sahel could be eaced somewhat, athough not to'3 sufficient extent to counterbalance the impact of population growth Eastern Aiea is Ikly to see ils situation worsen, beeause demographic ard cimate impacts ae predicted to work in the same alrection towards inereasing water stress‘Africa isthe region where the impacts of climate change on agricul- ture are predicted to be the most severe. Increasing temperatures and changed rainfall paters wil affect Afficanagtcu- ‘ure dramaticaly by cnanging the geographical distribution of areas sted tthe sifferent cops, Keeping current crop mixes would resut in decreased yields due te suboptimal elmatic conditions compared tothe eurent situation AS a result, counties will have to adjust the mi of eropsthey grow. Recent research focusing onthe biophyscal effects of cimate change (precipitation and temperature sug- ‘gests that Aria would be the continent mort affected by clmate change from ‘he point of view of agricukural productvs, with almost all courties undergo ing losses of productivty, even after crop adjustments andthe postive effects of carbon ferization are taken inte account * aun @ twee seat At the country level, important adjustments in crop mix may be needed due to climate change. For some countries that are currently relying ona few crops increases in tom perature such as predicted by the main clmate models will probably imply Fadieal changes in the agricultural production system, because the crops in question wil ntbe adapted tothe agracimatic conditions of the county any more. Whereas most parts of Uganda are curently sited for coffee cultva {von one study estimates that a 2- degree Celsius temperature inerease would render most of the countrys area unsuitable fr coffeSOURCES FOR MAPS AND GRAPHS Introduction: general trends | World Bane Word Development Indesor 2007 { DH, Conic rendsn ren, 1946-20018 Mecro-Comparave Perspective, ‘pina govaklpuosiiessfies conic at reper Pal + World Tage Organization Statistics Database, 2007 Usted Nato MOG website, tp/mdge an orglursdndg/Data ep {Weld Bark, Word Development naen'or 2007 * Unted Navona 2007, Aren ard the Wilersum Development Goa, 2007 upd, pia un orgmilenniumgosllsocsMOGa¥es07 po Demographic trends {+ Unted Natons, Poulson Divison, Word Population Protpacs: The 2006 Revision, Nepsfesesmononee! “+ World Bank, Word Development Indesor 2007 * Unted Nevons, Populaton Dison pose. unerg/unpa/p2kodata aso * Unted ators, Papulton Divs, hpinmw i orgesn/popuatin/p blest! ‘WUP2005/200SH/0P DataTaiess pal Education + Unted Natons MDG website, 2007, htolindgs un eglunsnda/ Date sep {World Bane Word Development Indesore 2007 { UNCTAD, 2007, The Lest Developed Counties Report 2007: Krowledge, Techroog ‘el Lexing a nnoraton fr Development, Usted Nator, New York and Geneva Health | Unted Natons MDG webs, 2007, tpl/ndgs. un ogfunedind/Data sep { FAO, State of Food isecurty nthe Wels 2004, p10. oy fo org/doeepl {of009/s0750630750600 pat ‘ International Enence Corporation and World Resource Insitute 2007, The Next {1B Son: Market Se ana Busse Strategy atthe Bare ofthe Pyramid World Re: Soures inst, Washington 0.6 ‘6 WHO, Word Health Report 2006, annex 4 tp/onawnhontne/2006annexlen! nex + International Finance Corporation, 2007, The Business of Health in Aen Partrving +s Unicer, 2006 * Unted Nstore, 2007, fin ard the Milerum Development Gos, 2007 upd, tp wa un org/milenniumgesl/secsMOGetrea pa '¢ UNAIDSIWHO, 207,07 DS epidemic update, Decerbe Htp/datsnaie org! ubEPiSides 3007/3007 eppeate on oat + Unted Natons, Populason Bison, Wor Papuan Prospecs: The 2004 Revision, epiferan orgiurep? '¢ UNAIDS, hp //esta uri org/pub/GlebalReporl2004/Annex2_Dota ens for AIDS orphans, hpi rg/pub/ClobaRepor/2005/2006 GRAND. np for coverage by va therapy 1+ UNAIDSIUSRID/UNICEF 2008 Chudren onthe Bink 2008, pln ania rg publestionfles/esb layout 03 pot Infrastructure and services '¢ UNESCOLUNICES, Joint Monitoring Programme, 2004, hip smu wnsini.rgfen! ‘+ Inernaonal Energy Agency (EA, 2002, Word Energy Outloak: Energy and Pov. ty hpi werleenergyeaiock orgiwen/oubsiweoz202/energyrovertypal «¢ Word Bans, Aires Development Indestors 2006, 1 FC ara Wlorid Resource svat 2007), The Nex 4 Bion: Nahe: Size and Business Seategy she Base ofthe Pyramia Word Rerourees stu, Washington, OC «¢Aisean Developrent Burk, 200, Selected tastes on Aeon count, voure XV * itr Telcormuncaon Us TU, 207, Wer Teleconmaneaton inex: 206 Geneve TU Alan ol thts uTUD/epablstaalvetvo en) ‘Intemational Tecananzaon Unon {Tu} 2007, Tearormaneaton CT market std ‘vende ives 2007, pifwonit weTU-Dhelaatsematesalst reper? a Structure of the economy |¢ Wold Bark, Werd Development Incest 2007 ‘IME, 2007, i tases, Hep foon mists orglin World Trade Organiason WTO Stats Database, 2008 { Hary’G. 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