EAAIO 6

EIMATOHIA

. , ,
,
, .
: H
(probability sampling) (non probability
sampling).
, ,
( ).


, (Baker, 1988).
(
) , .
(Kish, 1995, Babbie, 1989, , 2001, , 2002):
(element).
. ,
.

126 / OOO

(population).
.
(study population). O

.
.
(sampling frame). . , ..
. , .
(sampling unit).
.
,
.

,
.
(observation unit).
. . , . , , .
(sample size).
n.

. , , , .
(1985),
(1990, 1991), (1992, 2003),
(2002), (2001), Deming (1960), Fink (1995b),
Henry (1990), Kish (1995).

 O ; / 127

, .., , . . ,
, . ,
.
200 . - , , ,
, - .
. ;
,
.
.
.
. . ,

.

. .

128 / OOO

, , ,
.


, 10%. . O
, , 3% 5% ..

. . .
. O ,
, , ,
.

, . 2.500 3.000 ,
(exit polls)
10.000 .
. ,
,
. ,
500, 4,47%,
2.500 2% 10.000
1%.
, -

 O ; / 129

(exit
polls).


. ... ,
. ,
, . .
( ) . , ,
.
. .
, / ...,
. ,
. ,
.
(face to face) , . ,
. 5% (
, 2001, , 2002).
... ( ), .

130 / OOO

...

1
e= , n .
n
95% 95%
,
50% . , 20% 80%, . ,
. n=500 1
1
 =  = 0,0447 = 4,47% 95%.
n 
500
1
( , 2001, , 2002):
1.

n
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1.000

95%

10%
7,07%
5,77%
5,00%
4,47%
4,08%
3,78%
3,54%
3,33%
3,16%

 O ; / 131

, ,
.
.
1
1
=  n, n = 2 .

n


95% e.
.
.
,
. , , , .



. 1
 = . n,
n
1
n = 2 .


95% e.
. 1
95% .

132 / OOO

35

30
25
20
15
10
5
0
0

200

400

600

800
1.000 1.200
M n

1.400

1.600

1.800

2.000

: , 2001.

1.
(systematic sampling)

, .
N
. , ,
n.
.
N/n, x. .
x+/n,
x+2N/n ... x+(n1)N/n. n .
,
-
. .

 O ; / 133

.

, .
, . . .

(exit polls).
, , (
). O , , , , . , ,
.
, , ,
( ).
, ,

( ) .
(stratified sampling)

,

. , .
. ,

134 / OOO

,
. .
O (strata) .
: , , ..
( )
, .
: (proportionate) (disproportionate).
. . (
), (
). ,
..

.

( , 2001). ,
. ,

.
. .

 O ; / 135

,

.
(cluster sampling)
, ,
, .
- ,
. . ,
, , .
, , . , , ( ) , , .

, .


,
.
.
,
.
.
, .
-