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MPP04 512 LN08V 2012 02 09 10101469
MPP04 512 LN08V 2012 02 09 10101469
Kinh t hc v m
Ghi ch Bi ging 8
Ghi ch Bi ging 8
Kinh t hc v m
Ghi ch Bi ging 8
mua bn hng ha, v v th, cung tin tng ln. Ngi vay tuy mua c hng ha nhng
mang n ca ngn hng, v v th, h khng giu thm. Ni cch khc, vic to ra tin
t h thng ngn hng ch lm tng tnh thanh khon ca nn kinh t, ch khng to ra ca
ci cho nn kinh t. Tin c gi tr danh ngha, hng ha v dch v c gi tr thc.
Ngn hng trung ng kim sot c s tin (Money base, MB), v qua kim sot cung
tin M (Money supply). C s tin MB = C + R (ti sn n) = FR + Debts (ti sn c) ca
ngn hng trung ng, trong FR (foreign reserves) l d tr chnh thc v Debts l cc
khon n m ngn hng trung ng cho chnh ph vay (tri phiu) v cc khon tn dng
trong nc. Mt cch tm tt v quan h ba khu vc:
Ngn hng trung ng
Ti sn c
D tr
chnh thc
Ti sn n
Tin trong
Ti sn c
Cho vay (L)
Tin lu thng
D tr (R)
trong nc
Ti sn n
N vay (L)
Ti sn n
Vn c khc
D tr bt phn
(C)
buc
hay tn dng
Ti sn c
(FR)
Tri phiu CP
Ti sn n
Ti sn c khc
ca ngn hng
thng mi
(R)
(Debts)
Kinh t hc v m
Ghi ch Bi ging 8
Li sut chnh sch, l li sut m cc ngn hng trung ng c th kim sot trc
tip, v d nh Fed Funds Rate M v li sut c bn Vit nam1.
Nghip v th trng m: ngn hng trung ng mua hay bn tri phiu chnh ph
trn th trng m. Khi mua tri phiu (bm thm tin/thanh khon ra): MB tng
lm cung tin tng, khi bn tri phiu (ht bt tin/thanh khon v): MB gim lm
cung tin gim.
Chnh sch tin t m rng hng v mc tiu tng tng cu, nhm a nn kinh t ra khi
h cch suy thoi, bng cch tng cung tin thng qua vic gim li sut. Chnh sch tin t
tht cht hng v mc tiu gim tng cu, nhm a nn kinh t ra khi trng thi pht
trin qu nng vi lm pht, thng qua vic gim cung tin hay tng li sut.
Mt trong s cch th hin mi quan h gia khi lng tin (M) v mc gi (P) l phng
trnh s lng tin: MV = PY, trong M l cung tin, V l vng quay hay vn tc ca
tin, Y l GDP thc, v PY l GDP danh ngha. Vn tc ca tin c hiu l s ln trung
bnh mt ng c trao tay chi tr cho cc hng ha v dch v.
Hy xem xt mt m hnh v cung tin, cu tin, v mc gi cn bng. Cung tin (M = C +
D) c gi l cung tin danh ngha, v M/P l cung tin thc. Cung tin do ngn hng
trung ng kim sot.
Cu tin l nhu cu gi tin thc hin cc giao dch. Mt hm cu tin n gin c
th hin bi Md=kPY, trong Md l cu tin (Money demand), v k l h s th hin khi
lng giao dch (k=1/V, c xc nh trc v khng thay i). Cu tin t l vi khi
lng giao dch, v t l vi thu nhp. Khi c nhiu thu nhp, ngi ta c nhu cu mua
nhiu hng ha hn.
Trong cc sch gio khoa thng nhc n li sut chit khu, hay discount rate, khi ni v cng c li sut m cc
ngn hng trung ng dng tin hnh chnh sch tin t. Thc t, discount rate v Fed Funds rate c s khc bit.
Fed Funds Rate l li sut chnh sch, ngha l cng c li sut ca chnh sch tin t m Fed s dng tc ng trc
tip ln li sut ngn hn (v gin tip ln li sut di hn) trn th trng. Discount rate l li sut Fed cho cc ngn hng
thng mi "vay nng" thng qua discount window khi cc ngn hng ny gp kh khn thanh khon, y l mt hnh
thc cho vay c th chp. Vit Nam, th trng ti chnh thng phn bit ba loi li sut chnh: li sut chnh sch nh
gii thch trn, li sut lin ngn hng, l li sut m cc ngn hng thng mi cho vay ln nhau, thng khng c
th chp, nh LIBOR, v li sut thng mi, l li sut m cc ngn hng thng mi vay hoc cho vay i vi cc i
tng khng phi ngn hng trong nn kinh t, v d li sut huy ng, li sut cho vay. V c bn ba loi li sut ny c
lin h mt thit vi nhau. Xem thm L Hng Giang, Thay li sut c bn bng li sut chnh sch, Si Gn Tip Th,
31/5/2010 http://sgtt.vn/Goc-nhin/123096/Thay-lai-suat-co-ban-bang-lai-suat-chinh-sach.html.
Kinh t hc v m
Ghi ch Bi ging 8
Kinh t hc v m
Ghi ch Bi ging 8
HG DN
-C
+Y
-T
-Bp
NHTU CP
+C
+G
+X
-M
NNg
Tng
-X
+M
0
0
0
0
-G
-Y
-Bcb
+T
0
0
+B
ph
tin mt
d tr ngoi hi
Tng
ti sn/n
Tr lng (cui k)
Tri phiu chnh
ph
Tin mt
D tr ngoi hi
Tng gp (tng ca
ci)
Kinh t hc v m
Ghi ch Bi ging 8
-H
0
+W
0
0
+Bp
+H
+W
+H
-R
0
0
0
-B
+Bcb
-H
+R
-B
-B
+R
0
-R
0
0
0
0
-R
0
0
0
-R
Ca ci quc gia s thay i bng vi tng doanh thu rng ca chnh ph t vic bn tri
phiu chnh ph v nhng thay i trong mc d tr ca ngn hng trung ng. (W
B R = 0). V mc thay i tri phiu bng vi thm ht ngn sch ca chnh ph (G-T),
v mc thay i d tr ngoi hi ca ngn hng trung ng th bng vi thm ht thng
mi (X-M), khon thay i trong ca ci h gia nh bng vi W (G T) (X M) = 0.
Nu khng c thay i trong ca ci h gia nh, th thm ht ca chnh ph bng vi
thm ht thng mi hay (G T) = (M X), hay l s thm ht kp.
ng nht thc cui cng ny cho thy trong trng hp khng c dng vn nc ngoi,
thm ht thng mi s i km vi thm ht ngn sch v ngc li. Khng c cch no
c th ti tr thm ht thng mi khi d tr ngoi hi cn kit, v gii php duy nht
cn li l mt chnh sch ti kha hn ch nhp khu cho ti khi M-X=0.
Vi t gi hi oi c nh, thm ht thng mi dn n vic ngn hng trung ng phi
rt bt d tr ngoi hi thng qua vic mua tri phiu VND. Nhng nu chnh ph khng
th bn tri phiu cho VND cho khu vc nc ngoi, th ngn hng trung ng s cng cn
thay th R bng B trong bng cn i ti sn ca mnh cho n khi khng cn R. Do cc
nc c thng d thng mi c th duy tr t gi hi oi c nh mi mi (nh Trung
Quc) nhng cc nc b thm ht thng mi th khng th (Vit Nam). Tng li sut ni
a s thu ht h gia nh nc ngoi gi tri phiu VND, nhng li sut cao s lm gim
tiu dng trong nc v theo l thu, tip tc lm cho thm ht chnh ph rng hn. R
rng ch tng li sut thi khng th gii quyt vn . Vic quan trng vn l chnh ph
phi gim thm ht.
Kinh t hc v m
Ghi ch Bi ging 8
T cui nm 2008, SBV v ang bn d tr ngoi hi, khi Vit Nam chuyn dch t
chnh sch tin t v ngn sch thu hp sang m rng nhm ng ph vi cuc khng
hong ti chnh ton cu. Vit Nam vn tip tc b thm ht thng mi v ngn sch ln.
Trong khi , Vit Nam vn cha th thuyt phc khu vc nc ngoi mua tri phiu
VND. Kt qu l s thm ht cn cn thanh ton vn c ti tr thng qua vic rt cn
dn d tr ngoi hi ca SBV.
Mt trong nhng im phc tp trong nn kinh t v m ca Vit Nam l chng ta duy tr
ti khon vn ng nhng li c th trng vng v la si ng trong nc. Cc h gia
nh v doanh nghip u t vo 5 ti sn ti chnh ch cht: VND (gm ti khon ngn
hng), tri phiu VND, c phiu VND, vng v -la (v nhng ngoi t khc). T gi c
c nh so vi -la, nhng trong nhng giai on c thm ht thng mi ln v lm
pht gia tng, cc h gia nh v doanh nghip khng tin rng t gi hi oi s c gi
nguyn (li sut lin ngn hng bin ng mnh). H khng th em tin ra khi t nc,
nhng h c th s dng VND mua vng v -la. Khi lm nh vy, nhng giao dch
ny khng xut hin trn s liu cn cn thanh ton v khng c giao dch xy ra SBV v
khng ai tht s nhn c dng ti chnh ny. Nhng giao dch ny tr thnh s d trong
thng k cn cn thanh ton. Chng ta gi l sai v st (error and omission). Nm 2009,
h s sai st l hn 13% GDP, theo thng k ca IMF.
Chnh sch tin t v ti kha ni lng trong hai nm qua dn n s nh gi cao tin
ng Vit Nam. So Vit Nam vi cc nc ang pht trin khc, chng ta nhn thy thm
ht ngn sch ca Vit Nam so vi GDP l ln, v ko di trong 4 nm qua. Da vo
phn tch trn, r rng thm ht ngn sch ln ang ko theo thm ht thng mi, thc
o ny cng ln hn so vi cc nc trong phm vi so snh.
Tin cng ging nh nhng ti sn khc ch khi cu gim, gi cng phi gim. Nu
khng, s d cung (hay cu khng ). Thm ht ti khon vng lai ca Vit Nam c ngha
l c nhiu ngi nm gi VND ang c mua ngoi t hn l ngi nc ngoi c mua
VND. Trng hp ny s vn tip tc cho ti khi hoc thm ht ngn sch gim hoc t gi
c php mt gi, hay c hai.
Ghi ch: Ngn hng to ra tin bng cch no?
Gi s Mt c c 1000 ng. Nu Mt c ct s tin ny di gi, s tin c tn ti
di dng tin trong lu thng (circulation).
Kinh t hc v m
Ghi ch Bi ging 8
lu
thng (Deposit)
(Circulation)
Giai on 1: Mt c gi tin di gi
1000
(Money
supply)
1,000
1,000
1,900
1,900
2,710
Kinh t hc v m
Ghi ch Bi ging 8
1000(1-rr)
1000(1-rr)2
1000(1-rr)3
1000/rr
Chia c t s v mu s cho D, m =
Trong ti liu c ca cc bn, Moss (2009) gi s nhn tin l 1/t phn r r, trong r r chnh l t l
d tr c ngn hng gi li v khng em cho vay (rr). Trong tho lun , Moss gi nh rng h gia
nh gi ton b tin vo ngn hng m khng gi li trong lu thng, ngha l cr=0.