Nghin Cu & Trao i

nh hng ca chnh sch c tc n

bin ng gi c phiu cc cng ty nim yt trn
th trng chng khon Vit Nam
ng Th Qunh Anh & Phm Th Yn Nhi

Trng i hc Ngn hng TP.HCM

Nhn bi: 29/07/2015 - Duyt ng: 30/10/2015

c ch ca bi vit nghin cu mi quan h gia chnh

sch c tc v bin ng gi c phiu cc cng ty trn th
trng VN, t d liu ca 165 cng ty nim yt trn HOSE
v HNX, chi tr c tc y trong 5 nm t nm 2009 n nm 2013.
S dng m hnh hi quy, hiu ng tc ng c nh (FEM) dnh cho d
liu bng kt hp vi phn tch thng k m t, kt qu cho thy mi quan
h cng chiu gia t sut c tc, t l chi tr c tc v bin ng gi c
phiu. T kt hp vi c im ca th trng ti VN, tc gi a ra gi
cho cc nh qun tr ti chnh v chnh sch phn phi li nhun. ng
thi gip nh u t c ci nhn tng quan nh hng ca chnh sch c
tc n bin ng gi c phiu, h tr cho vic ra quyt nh.
T kha: Chnh sch c tc, t l chi tr c tc, t sut chi tr c
tc.

1. Gii thiu

Chnh sch c tc n nh
vic phn chia li nhun sau thu
ca cng ty, bao nhiu phn trm
s c gi li ti u t, bao
nhiu phm trm c s dng
chi tr cho c ng di hnh thc
c tc (Nguyn Minh Kiu, 2009).
D c tc c chi tr theo phng
thc no th u lm gim phn li
nhun gi li ca cng ty. Nu li
nhun gi li ca cng ty c
em ti u t ha hn dng thu
nhp mang li trong tng lai cho
c ng, th c tc l dng thu nhp
hin hu chc chn m c ng
nhn c nh l phn thng cho

60

kt qu u t ca mnh.
Quyt nh chi tr c tc nh
hng n cu trc vn ca doanh
nghip, ng thi thng tin hm
cha trong vic chi tr c tc, t
sut c tc (Dividend Yield), t l
chi tr c tc (Dividend Payout) v
cch thc chi tr c tc nh hng
n bin ng gi c phiu ca cc
cng ty nim yt, nh hng trc
tip n danh ting ca cng ty.
Trong nhng nm gn y, ngun
thu nhp t c tc bt u c cc
nh u t trn th trng chng
khon VN quan tm; tuy nhin,
hu ht cc cng ty cha nhn
thc ng n tm quan trng ca
chnh sch c tc, cha c nhng

PHT TRIN & HI NHP S 26 (36) - Thng 01 - 02/2016

nh hng r rng, mang tnh di

hn cho chnh sch phn phi li
nhun. Vic chm chi tr c tc, n
c tc din ra nhiu cc cng ty.
Nh u t, c bit l nhng nh
u t c nhn lun b ng trc
bin ng gi c phiu, gy nn
kh khn trong vic thit lp k
hoch u t ngn hang ngn hang
nhm t c mc tiu ra.
2. C s l thuyt v bng chng
thc nghim

c rt nhiu nghin cu lm
tin , c s l thuyt gii thch
cho mi quan h gia chnh sch
c tc v bin ng gi c phiu.
C hai trng phi l thuyt l

Nghin Cu & Trao i

s c lp v khng c lp ca
chnh sch c tc.
L thuyt v s c lp ca
chnh sch c tc cho rng chnh
sch c tc ca cng ty khng tc
ng n gi c phiu v chi ph s
dng vn ca cng ty. L thuyt ny
da trn cc gi nh th trng vn
l hon ho, hnh vi ca nh u t
l hp l v s chc chn v ngun
li nhun trong tng lai. ng h
cho l thuyt ny c nhng nghin
cu ca Merton Miller v Franco
Modigliani , 1961; Brennan, 1971;
Hakansson, 1982.
Cc l thuyt thuc trng phi
s khng c lp ca chnh sch c
tc nh: L thuyt ch chim trong
lng bn tay, l thuyt pht tn hiu,
l thuyt chi ph i din, l thuyt
hiu ng nhm khch hng.
Theo l thuyt ch chim trong
lng bn tay, mt nh u t yu
thch dng tin n t c tc hn
l dng tin n t li vn. Bi l
dng tin n t c tc l dng tin
m nh u t chc chn nhn c
ngay lp tc, trong khi ngun li
vn c c do kt qu thnh cng
t vic ti u t ca cng ty trong
tng lai l iu khng chc chn
(Gordon, 1962; Diamond, 1967;
Lintner, 1956; Water, 1963).
L thuyt pht tn hiu hay cn
gi l gi thuyt ni dung thng
tin cho rng vic chia tr c tc
mang thng tin, l tn hiu cho nh
u t. Bi l tn ti hin tng
bt cn xng thng tin, nh u
t lun nm t thng tin v cng
ty hn ban qun tr; v vy h cho
rng c tc mang tn hiu thng tin
m nh qun tr mun truyn ti
(Bhattacharya, 1979; Aharony v
Swary, 1980; Asquith v Mullins,
1983).
L thuyt chi ph i din xut
hin khi xy ra mu thun li ch

gia nh qun l v c ng trong

cng ty, mt bn l ngi s hu
ti sn, mt bn l ngi s dng
ti sn (Jensen, Solberg & Zorn,
1992; Holder, 1998; Saxena,
1999). Hiu ng nhm khch hng
cho rng cng ty c nhng nhm
khch hng khc nhau v nhng
nhm khch hng ny c nhng
s thch khc nhau, do vic
thay i trong chnh sch c tc
c th khin cho mt nhm khch
hng ch yu khng hi lng, nh
hng tiu cc n gi c phiu
(Yoon, 1997; Lewellen, Stanley &
Lease, 1978; Dhaliwal, Erickson,
& Trezevant, 1999).
i u v nghin cu trc tip
mi quan h gia bin ng gi c
phiu v chnh sch c tc c nghin
cu ca Black v Scholes (1974).
Trong nghin cu ca mnh Black
v Scholes to ra 25 danh mc
u t trn th trng chng khon
New York c xem xt trong
khong thi gian 1936 1966. S
dng m hnh nh gi vn ti sn
nghin cu mi quan h gia
chnh sch c tc v li nhun m
nh u t nhn c sau khi iu
chnh ri ro v thu. Bin i din
cho bin ng gi c tc gi a
vo m hnh di hnh thc l ri
ro nh u t phi i mt thu
c li nhun mong mun. Tc
gi i n kt lun khng c mi
quan h no gia chnh sch c tc
v bin ng gi c phiu.
Baskin (1989) nghin cu
thc nghim 2.344 cng ty nim yt
trn th trng chng khon M.
Thi gian nghin cu trong vng
20 nm t nm 1967 n 1986.
Tc gi s dng phng php hi
quy xy dng m hnh nghin cu
mi quan h gia chnh sch c tc
v bin ng gi c phiu. Bin
c lp l bin ng gi cng vi

bin ph thuc bao gm nhm bin

i din cho chnh sch c tc v
nhm bin kim sot. Bin i din
cho chnh sch c tc l t l chi
tr c tc (Dividend Payout Ratio)
v t sut c tc (Dividend Yield).
Bin kim sot gm quy m cng
ty, tc tng trng ti sn, t l
n di hn trn tng ti sn, bin
ng trong thu nhp. ng tm ra
mi tng quan m gia t sut
c tc v t l chi tr c tc n
bin ng gi c phiu. Cc bin
kim sot bin ng thu nhp v t
l n di hn c mi tng quan
dng vi bin ng gi. Bn cnh
, nghin cu nh hng ca
ngnh ngh kinh doanh n bin
ng gi c phiu, tc gi cng
to 5 bin gi i din cho 6 ngnh
chim t trng ln trong chui d
liu. Nghin cu kt lun chnh
sch c tc tc ng trc tip n
bin ng gi c phiu; v vy nh
qun tr c th s dng mi quan
h ny iu chnh ri ro nhm
thu ht u t. y l nghin cu
tin v m hnh trong nghin
cu c xem l khun mu cho
nhng nghin cu sau ny.
Cng s dng m hnh nghin
cu vi cc bin nh trong m
hnh ca Baskin, hoc pht trin
ln dnh cho chui d liu bng,
hng lot cc nghin cu tin
hnh trn nhiu th trng chng
khon khc nhau: Rachim v Allen
(1996) nghin cu th trng chng
khon Australia; Hussainey, Oscar
v Chijoke (2010): th trng
chng khon Lun n; Nazir v
cng s (2010): th trng chng
khon Pakistan; Okafor v Chijoke
(2011): th trng chng khon
Nigeria; Ramadam (2013): th
trng chng khon Jordan...Cc
nghin cu a n kt lun chnh
sch c tc nh hng n bin

S 26 (36) - Thng 01 - 02/2016 PHT TRIN & HI NHP

61

Nghin Cu & Trao i

ng gi c phiu. Tuy nhin, ty vo thi gian nghin
cu, bn cht th trng mi quc gia, ch php lut
m chnh sch c tc tc ng theo chiu hng khc
nhau n bin ng gi c phiu nim yt.
3. Phng php nghin cu

Phng php nghin cu c s dng l phng

php hi quy d liu dng bng vi k thut hiu ng
tc ng c nh (FEM) c la chn sau khi tin
hnh kim nh Hausman test. D liu nghin cu
l d liu bng vi 825 quan st bao gm 165 cng
ty thuc tt c cc ngnh ngh nim yt trn hai sn
chng khon HOSE v HNX, chi tr c tc y lin
tc t nm 2009 2013 di hnh thc tin mt hoc
c phiu. Ngun d liu thu thp t bo co ti chnh
ca cc cng ty, Bloomberg v cafef.vn.
M hnh nghin cu c s dng l m hnh ca
Baskin xy dng vo nm 1989 v sau c
cc nh khoa hc khc s dng nghin cu trn nhiu
th trng chng khon khc nhau v qua nhiu khong
thi gian khc nhau. Trong m hnh nghin cu bin
ph thuc l bin ng gi (PV), bin c lp bao gm
hai nhm bin. Nhm bin i din cho chnh sch c
tc bao gm bin t sut c tc bng tin mt (CDY),
t sut c tc bng c phiu (SDY), t l chi tr c tc
(DPO) v tc tng trng c tc (DG). Nhm bin
kim sot bao gm, bin quy m cng ty (SIZE), t l
n i hn trn tng ti sn (LEV), bin ng thu nhp
(EV) v tc tng trng ti sn (GA).
M hnh 1:
PVit = + 1CDYit + 2DPOit +3SIZEit +4LEVit +
5GAit + 6EVit + it
(1)
Trong :
PVit =
nm t

: Mc lch chun gi ca cng ty th i trong

: Gi bnh qun c phiu i trong nm t
CDYit =

CDit: Tng c tc bng tin mt ca cng ty i trong

nm t
MVit: Gi th trng cui nm ca c phiu i trong
nm t
DPOit =

62

PHT TRIN & HI NHP S 26 (36) - Thng 01 - 02/2016

TDit: Tng c tc chi tr ca cng ty i trong

nm t
EATit: Li nhun sau thu ca cng ty i trong
nm t
SIZEit = Ln(Total Assets)it
LEVit =

LDit l n di hn cng ty i trong nm t

ASSETit tng ti cng ty i vo cui nm t
GAit =

ASSETit: Tng ti sn cui nm tr tng ti sn

u nm
EVit = Rit
Rit : Li nhun hot ng chia cho tng ti sn ca
cng ty
: Trung bnh Rit trong cc nm t
M hnh 2:
PVit = + 1CDYit + 2SDYit + 3DPOit + 4DGit +
5SIZEit +6LEVit + 7GAit + 8EVit + it
Trong :

SDYit =

(2)

SDit: Tng c tc bng c phiu ca cng ty i trong

nm t

DGit =

M hnh 2 c b sung thm hai bin t sut
c tc bng c phiu v tc tng trng c tc, hai
bin ny l hai bin hon ton mi. Thm vo m hnh
v ti th trng chng khon VN chi tr c tc bng
c phiu l mt trong nhng phng thc chi tr kh
ph bin; tuy nhin, trong m hnh gc ca Baskin
ch cp n t sut c tc bng tin mt, vic thm
bin t sut c tc bng c phiu nh gi c nh
hng ca vic tr c tc bng c phiu v tr c tc
bng tin mt n bin ng gi c phiu. Tc tng
trng c tc cng l mt nhn t nh hng n bin
ng gi c phiu nn cng c a vo m hnh.
M hnh 3:
PVit = + 1CDYit + 2SDYit + 3DPOit + 4DGit
+ it
(3)
Kt qu hi quy m hnh 3 tr li cu hi ti th

Nghin Cu & Trao i

Bng 1: Thng k m t cc bin s
PV

CDY

SDY

DPO

DG

SIZE

LEV

EV

GA

Trung bnh

0,1835

0,0944

0,0050

0,5499

0,0830

13,29

0,0840

0,0891

0,1532

Trung v

0,1776

0,0851

0,0000

0,5516

0,0000

13,30

0,0263

0,0693

0,1231

Ln nht

0,4969

0,3225

0,7936

1,0000

3,3333

19,45

0,6267

0,5569

1,2820

Nh nht

0,0435

0,0000

0,0000

0,0611

-0,8914

9,76

0,0000

0,0000

-0,4117

lch chun

0,0643

0,0519

0,0349

0,2072

0,5283

1,55

0,1245

0,0769

0,2189

S quan st

N = 825

Ngun: Kt qu thng k m t

trng chng khon VN, chnh

sch c tc tc ng nh th no
n bin ng gi c phiu v mc
nh hng l bao nhiu?
4. Kt qu nghin cu

Kt qu thng k m t c
trnh by Bng 1 cho thy c
trng ca tng bin s nh gi tr
trung bnh, trung v, ln nht, nh
nht v lch chun. Bin ph
thuc PV thay i trong khong t
4,35% n 49,69% vi gi tr trung
bnh l 18,35%, cho thy bin ng
gi c phiu ca cc doanh nghip
nim yt trn th trng khon VN
t nm 2009 2013 trung bnh l
18,35%. Trung v ca SDY bng 0,
suy ra trong nhng doanh nghip
nghin cu hu ht l cc doanh
nghip t tr c tc bng c phiu.
T l chi tr c tc trung bnh ca
cc doanh nghip nghin cu bng
54,99% cho thy hu ht cc doanh
nghip u s dng trn 50% li
nhun sau thu trong k dng
chi tr c tc. Gi tr trung v ca
tc tng trng c tc bng
khng, hu ht cc doanh nghip
u c gng gi mc c tc n
nh qua cc nm.
Da vo kt qu hi quy Bng
2 ra mt s kt lun m hnh 1
cho R2 = 74% chng t cc bin
trong m hnh gii thch c
74% ngh cho bin ph thuc.
Kt qu hi quy m hnh 2 cho

Bng 2: Tm tt kt qu hi quy
M hnh 1
Bin

H s

lch chun

Thng k t

Xc sut

0,344314

0,117731

2,924573

0,0036

CDY

0,199417

0,045995

4,335649

0,0000

DPO

0,029853

0,009153

3,261543

0,0012

SIZE

-0,013772

0,008869

-1,552877

0,0032

EV

-0,132927

0,031788

-4,181668

0,6783

LEV

0,011455

0,027602

0,415007

0,0000

GA

-0,013157

0,007894

-1,666787

0,0961

0,740047

M hnh 2
C

0,367501

0,118382

3,104370

0,0020

CDY

0,210611

0,047708

4,414618

0,0000

SDY

0,090503

0,045512

1,988554

0,0472

DPO

0,029250

0,009147

3,197758

0,0015

DG

-0,003401

0,002908

-1,169716

0,2425

SIZE

-0,015502

0,008912

-1,739420

0,0824

EV

-0,147532

0,032486

-4,541403

0,6872

LEV

0,011232

0,027670

0,405917

0,0069

GA

-0,011666

0,007952

-1,467073

0,1428
0,741811

M hnh 3
C

0,144146

0,006022

23,93620

0,0000

CDY

0,217323

0,048345

4,495279

0,0000

SDY

0,043367

0,045061

0,962401

0,0362

DPO

0,034365

0,009127

3,765010

0,0002

DG

-0,002403

0,002888

-0,832100

0,4057
0,259627

R2

Ngun: Kt qu hi quy

S 26 (36) - Thng 01 - 02/2016 PHT TRIN & HI NHP

63

Nghin Cu & Trao i

tr s R2 ln hn m hnh 1 nn
cc bin mi c thm vo tng
mc gii thch cho bin ph
thuc. M hnh 3 cho tr s R2
= 25,96% nn ti th trng VN
chnh sch c tc gii thch c
25,96% s thay i bin ng
gi. Trong 3 m hnh ch c gi
tr hi quy ca cc bin thay i
trong khi du khng thay i nn
cc bin c lp trong tng m
hnh c mi quan h ng nht
vi bin ph thuc.
i vi nhm bin i din
cho chnh sch c tc, bin CDY,
SDY v DPO c quan h cng
chiu vi bin ng gi c phiu
c 3 m hnh. Tc l khi tng
t sut c tc bng tin mt hoc
bng c phiu th gi c phiu
bin ng tng v ngc li.
Kt qu ny ging vi kt qu
nghin cu cc nc ang
pht trin, c th trng chng
khon tng t VN nh Nigeria,
Pakistan. T sut c tc l thc
o chnh xc nht phn nh li
nhun m nh u t thu c
trn mt ng vn thc s b
ra, nhng doanh nghip c mc
t sut c tc hp dn s thu ht
nhiu nh u t hn. T sut c
tc nh hng bi hai nhn t,
gi th trng ca c phiu v
mc c tc. Khi xt cc doanh
nghip trong cng ngnh, t sut
c tc ca cc doanh nghip c
th gi nh song c mc chi tr c
tc bng hoc cao hn mc chi
tr c tc ca cc doanh nghip
c th gi ln th s c t sut c
tc cao hn. iu ny c hiu
rng cc doanh nghip c quy m
nh, ang trn tng trng v
chi tr c tc mc hp dn hn
th gi c phiu bin ng theo
xu hng tng trong tng lai.
V vic chi tr c tc bng tin

64

mt hay c phiu u nh hng

cng chiu n bin ng gi
ca c phiu. Song h s hi quy
ca bin CDY c ngha thng
k mc 1% trong khi SDY c
ngha thng k mc 5% cho thy
vic chi c tc bng tin mt tc
ng n bin ng gi c phiu
mnh m hn.
Ti th trng chng khon
VN, DPO quan h cng chiu
vi bin ng gi c phiu, khi
c 3 m hnh u cho h s hi
quy dng mc ngha 5%.
Theo l thuyt c in, nhng
doanh nghip ang trong giai
on tng trng c xu hng
gi li li nhun u t vo
nhng d n tim nng, dn n
s tng gi c phiu trong tng
lai. Tuy nhin khng ng ngha
vi vic nhng doanh nghip c
t l chi tr c tc cao l nhng
doanh nghip khng c nhng
d n tim nng ng u t.
Kt qu m hnh c th l gii
nhng doanh nghip ang trong
giai on tng trng, c nhng
tnh ton ng n m bo
ngun vn u t vo nhng d
n tim nng nhng vn chi tr
c tc mc cao dn n bin
ng tng gi trong tng lai,
khi cc d n tim nng mang li
ngun li nhun ln cho doanh
nghip. iu ny hm nhng
doanh nghip tng trng bn
vng, vn m bo hi ha gia
t l chi tr c tc v ngun
vn u t. Trong nhm bin
chnh sch c tc ch c bin DG
c mi quan h m vi bin ng
gi song bin ny khng c
ngha thng k.
Bin SIZE quan h ngc
chiu vi bin ng gi, iu ny
ph hp vi k vng v l thuyt
c in. Nhng doanh nghip c

PHT TRIN & HI NHP S 26 (36) - Thng 01 - 02/2016

quy m ln thng c bin ng

gi t hn nhng doanh nghip
c quy m nh. Bin LEV c
mi quan h cng chiu vi bin
ng gi doanh nghip khi cho
h s hi quy dng c hai m
hnh vi mc ngha 1%. iu
ny hm ti th trng chng
khon VN khi doanh nghip tng
mc s dng n di hn th
gi c phiu bin ng tng, c
th hiu c bi l cc doanh
nghip quan st a s l nhng
doanh nghip s dng rt t n,
v th cha tn dng ti a li th
ca n by ti chnh, khi tng
mc s dng n, gi tr doanh
nghip s tng dn n bin ng
gi tng; tuy nhin, n ch tng
trong mt gii hn s dng n
nht nh.
5. Kt lun

Chnh sch c tc nh hng

n bin ng gi c phiu, thng
qua nh hng n gi tr ca
doanh nghip. S nh hng khng
nm cch hch ton k ton, v
vic nh u t nh gi tim nng
tng trng ca doanh nghip nh
th no v bn cht doanh nghip
ra sao. V vy, quyt nh chnh
sch c tc l mt quyt nh rt
quan trng i vi doanh nghip,
d ti th trng chng khon cn
cha pht trin nh VN. R rng
rt kh c th a ra mt chnh
sch c tc c xem l khun
mu cho tt c cc doanh nghip,
bi l chnh sch c tc nm trong
mi quan h hi ha gia chnh
sch u t v chnh sch ti tr.
Tuy nhin, mi doanh nghip ty
vo c im kinh doanh, iu
kin kinh t th trng hin ti li
c nhng chnh sch u t v pht
trin khc nhau. V vy, khuyn
ngh chnh sch a ra da trn kt
qu nghin cu ca m hnh kt

Nghin Cu & Trao i

hp vi thc trng chi tr c tc
ca cc doanh nghip nim yt trn
th trng chng khon VN.
Th nht, chnh sch c tc phi
kt hp hi ha gia chnh sch u
t v chnh sch ti tr. Th hai,
cn nhc la chn phng thc chi
tr c tc ph hp cho tng cng ty
vo tng giai on khc nhau. Th
ba, c gng duy tr mt t l c tc
an ton, chnh sch c tc nh hng
qu kt hp vi thng c tc cui
nm nn c xem xt v s dng
cho cc doanh nghip nim yt trn
th trng chng khon VN.
V pha nh u t, t c
mc tiu u t ca mnh cng nn
xem xt tn dng thng tin v c
tc ca doanh nghip s dng
phn tch cng ty, la chn u t
vo nhng doanh nghip c chnh
sch c tc nht qun, r rng v
n nh, ng thi la chn u tin
u t vo nhng doanh nghip c
tim nng tng trng cao tuy nhin
th gi chng khon cn thpl
TI LIU THAM KHO
Aharony, J. & Swary, I. (1980). Quarterly
dividend and earnings announcements
and stockholders return: An empirical
analysis. The Journal of Finance, vol.
35, no. 1, pp. 1-12.
Allen D. E. and Rachim V. S.. (1996).
Dividend policy and stock price
volatility: Australian evidence. Journal
of Applied Economics, no. 6, pp. 175188.
Baltagi. B.H. (2005). Economic Analysis
of Panel Data. John Wiley & Sons.
England.
Baskin. J.. (1989). Dividend policy and the
volatility of common stock. Journal of
Portfolio Management, no. 15, pp. 1925.
Bhattacharya.
S.
(1979).
Imperfect
information. dividend policy. and the
bird in the hand fallacy. The Ball
Journal of Economic, vol. 10, no. 1, pp.
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