MTODOS QUANTITATIVOS DE APOIO DECISO

LICENCIATURAS EM
ENGENHARIA MECNICA
GESTO E ENGENHARIA INDUSTRIAL

CASO DE ESTUDO

THE CARLSON DEPARTMENT STORE*

Bernardo Sobrinho Simes de Almada Lobo

Faculdade de Engenharia da Universidade do Porto

Seco de Gesto e Engenharia Industrial

Outubro 2007

* Retirado do livro Introduction to Management Science, de Anderson, Sweeney e Williams

Forecasting Lost Sales

The Carlson Department Store suffered heavy damage when a hurricane struck on August
31, 1996. The store was closed for four months (September 1996 through December
1996), and Carlson is now involved in a dispute with its insurance company concerning
the amount of lost sales during the time the store was closed. Two key issues must be
resolved: (1) the amount of sales Carlson would have made if the hurricane had not
struck; and (2) whether Carlson is entitled to any compensation for excess sales from
increased business activity after the storm. More then $8 billion in federal disaster relief
and insurance money came into the county, resulting in increased sales at department
stores and numerous other businesses.
Table 1 shows the sales data for the 48 months preceding the storm. The U.S.
Department of Commerce also has published total sales for the 48 months preceding the
storm for all department stores in the county, as well as the total sales in the county for
the 4 months the Carlson Department Store was closed. Table 2 shows these data.
Management has asked you to analyse these data and develop estimates of the lost sales
at the Carlson Department Store for the months of September through December 1996.
Management also has asked you to determine whether a case can be made for excess
storm-related sales during the same period. If such a case can be made, Carlson is entitled
to compensation for excess sales it would have earned in addition to ordinary sales.

Managerial Report

Prepare a report (with a maximum of seven pages) for the management of the Carlson
Department store that summarizes your findings, forecasts, and recommendations.

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Table 1 Sales for Carlson Department Store, September 1992 through August
1996
1992
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Ago
Sep
Out
Nov
Dec

1.71
1.90
2.74
4.20

1993
1.45
1.80
2.03
1.99
2.32
2.20
2.13
2.43
1.90
2.13
2.56
4.16

1994
2.31
1.89
2.02
2.23
2.39
2.14
2.27
2.21
1.89
2.29
2.83
4.04

1995
2.31
1.99
2.42
2.45
2.57
2.42
2.40
2.50
2.09
2.54
2.97
4.35

1996
2.56
2.28
2.69
2.48
2.73
2.37
2.31
2.23

Table 2 Department Store Sales for the County, September 1992 through
December 1996
1992
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Ago
Sep
Out
Nov
Dec

55.8
56.4
71.4
117.6

1993
46.8
48.0
60.0
57.6
61.8
58.2
56.4
63.0
57.6
53.4
71.4
114.0

1994
46.8
48.6
59.4
58.2
60.6
55.2
51.0
58.8
49.8
54.6
65.4
102.0

2/2

1995
43.8
45.6
57.6
53.4
56.4
52.8
54.0
60.6
47.4
54.6
67.8
100.2

1996
48.0
51.6
57.6
58.2
60.0
57.0
57.6
61.8
69.0
75.0
85.2
121.8