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Daily Guidelines Financial

Wednesday, November 18, 2015

US Dollar Index** Weekly and Daily Futures Continuation

Support 9700-9740 and initially 9840. Resistance 10027-10038 range, the 2 spot highs in Mch/Apr
2015. The short pause/consolidation appears to have ended as the dollar traded to a new short
term high at 9992.The session was an outside day up, a sign of strength. Beyond the 2 spot highs
listed above as resistance, we are watching the 1.618 expansion of wave-3 versus wave-1 on the
weekly chart which is essentially the 10049 level. Our longer term view reflected in a recent Tech
Focus article has an objective in the 10250-10300 range.

Euro (Fx)** Daily Continuation

Resistance 11500 and then 11720. Support 11000-11100 range. The euro has weakened in the
last 3-4 sessions and today scored a new short term low at 10626. The move down penetrated the
previous low (tiny blue wave-3) which we had been anticipating. Last week because of our
subjective reading of the waves on the daily chart, we raised our secondary downside target on the
euro from 10480 to the 10620-10640 range. The euro achieved that higher objective on Tuesday
and Wednesday. We are sensitive to any signs of a low, which, as of today is lacking.

Japanese Yen** Weekly and Daily Continuation

Support 8100 plus/minus. Resistance 8330-8350 range. The recent low was 80925 and todays low
is 80915, thus a very marginal new reaction low was registered. We have some wave ideas on how
to count the decline from the mid-Oct high (at b). Rather than to consider several possible
scenarios, lets just say that 3 waves down are in place and since wave-2 up to 8350 was simple,
wave-4 currently in progress should be more complex. That would imply a bounce to the 8180-8200
area (or higher) to complete an a-b-c wave-4. Of course, there is a short term burden for wave-b to
take hold here. We tentatively labeled the decline from the mid-Oct high in green to illustrate this
possibility.

Crude Oil** Weekly and Jan

Rolled to Jan. Support 3800-3900 range. Resistance, initially a close over 4500. As we rolled from
the Dec contract, we have left the Jan chart relatively clean. Our wave count has been losing
probability and we are left intentionally with an immediate focus on the open gap marked on the
chart. It ranges from 4144 to 4101. The mi-point is 4122.5. Tuesdays low this week was the low of
the current pullback and it was 4121. That is virtually the exact mid-point of the gap and something
we really find difficult to ignore or consider as a random coincidence. The key however is to see
prices now do something on the upside to confirm the classic implication of the gap representing
support support that held. A we stated at the end of our previous crude comments, the 39004000 is a critical area (on spot) and if the market fails here we must acknowledge that there is the
potential for a final break to the 3300-3500 range.

Gasoline** Weekly and Daily Jan

Rolled to Jan. Support 11750 plus/minus. Resistance initially, a close over 12925, highest of the 3
(lettered) lows in the mid-Sep to November period. We liked this illustrated wave count and
transferred it from the Dec chart. The rbob low on the Jan contract occurred on Monday at 11962.
The mid-point of the gap illustrated on the daily chart is 11921. The gasoline did not fill the gap nor
seriously approach the mid-point but the gap held the decline in check and is a potentially strong
positive. The only factor which would make the case for a low more viable would be the recognition
that the b-c leg was a 5-wave movement. Objectively, and looking at the charts intraday, we dont
see 5-waves. We however can be wrong. A quick pullback to retest the recent low would fix that. A
close above 12925 in any case would be a strong confirmation of a low in place.

Heating Oil** Weekly and Daily Jan

Rolled to Jan. Support NA. Resistance initially a close above 14300. Most Elliott wave watchers
know the term throw over. It relates to a diagonal triangle in the fifth wave position where the price
ascends through the patterns upper boundary. It is temporary burst of extreme strength just prior to
a trend terminating. You will note we wrote through the upper boundary because that is where
most diagonals with throw overs are encountered, during bull rises. The situation in heat oil is
inverse. For a portion of each of the last 4 sessions, prices have traded below the lower boundary.
The key to look for is to first close back up in the pattern and above the 4-day high. The daily
momentum status is suggesting the market is ready to attempt that.

Natural Gas** Weekly and Daily Jan

Rolled to Jan. Support 2400 and 2350. Resistance initially 2650 close basis. For a period of
perhaps a few weeks, we were focusing on the oversold side of the market looking at many of the
extreme readings which were suggesting some type of relief from the incessant decline was due.
Today if one looks at the weekly and daily momentum, that oversold extreme is no longer operative.
The market has managed only a small 3 swing rally (in 11 sessions) where the high at 2600 just
marginally traded above the lower portion of the illustrated open gap. The green horizontal lines
define the gap between the close of Fri, Oct 23 and the high of Mon, Oct 26. Given the extremes to
which the market had moved, the recent rally has proven to be pitiful. Were prices to edge up again
to 2600, close there and then overnight gap up sharply, there would be potential for a multi-day
island reversal. The odds of that happening at this point appear very low. Downside testing is
suggested by the daily momentum and perhaps a retest of the recent lows.

T-Notes** Weekly and Daily Mch

Rolled to March. Support 12500 plus/minus. Resistance initially 12614-12624. The weekly chart
shows important potential support at 125164, a 1.618 expansion between waves-c and a. On the
daily chart, notes have had a short term 3-wave rally marked in lower case a-b-c. It was more
modest then we had anticipated. With daily momentum rising however, the 3 wave rally could
reasonably the first wave-A of a larger more time consuming countertrend bounce. If so, a sideways
B-wave is due and would thereafter be followed by a C-wave up. Our targets now revised are
12620 and 12704 basis March.

S&P Cash** Daily

Support 2020 closing basis. Resistance 2117 -2122. The case for a wave-4 low on Mondays low
gained credence today. That is a subjective assessment but supported by the daily stochastics
which turned up convincingly. The case for a low was also supported by a 42 day hi-to-hi-to low
measurement. The 2017 level now takes on significant importance and should be the maximum risk
for the market. Closing beneath could produce serious consequences. On the upside we will
maintain with the previously defined range of 2117 -2122 as a target. A higher objective level is
also possible (2150-2160).

Copper** Weekly and Monthly

Support initially the 20200-20700 range. Resistance 22100-22300 range incorporating the previous
Sep and Oct lows. Prices have broken down quite directionally and on the weekly chart are
th
assumed to be a 5 wave down. They also wasted little time in reaching the lower channel on the
weekly chart. Copper is our Tech Focus article this week and will be out tomorrow Thursday. It
considers many facets including waves, time, and seasonality.

Gold** Weekly and Daily December

Support 1040-1046. Resistance initially 1125 close. The fact that Dec traded a new low where the
spot chart had not is no longer of consequence now as both charts show a new low was scored
today. We are very focused on the 27 of November as far as potential timing and with regard to
prices, we are looking towards the 1042-1046 range which was in our last Tech Focus article.

Silver** Daily Dec

Support 1345 and then 1260. Resistance 1530-1550 range. We like the 1347 and 1257 if silver
experiences a final washout during the second half of November. Both the spot chart and the
December contract have thus far failed to make new lows. It is getting closer but if this should
persist while gold has made new lows it would represent a very interesting divergence and one
which often accompanies setting the highs or lows for the current move in both metals.

Disclaimer:
This information is not to be construed as an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy the futures or futures options named
herein. The information in this report has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable but is not necessarily all inclusive
and is not guaranteed as to the accuracy, and is not to be construed as representation by us. The market recommendations
contained herein represent the opinions of the author. Such opinions are subject to change without notice. Reliance upon
information in this market report is at the sole risk of the reader. Trading in futures and options on futures involves substantial
risk of loss and should not be considered appropriate for everyone. Past performance is no guarantee of future performance and
it should not be assumed that future profits will match or exceed past profits.