PMP, RMP

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.

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CPM
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4.3% Technology illiteracy

6.2% Lack of management
7.5% Didnt need it any longer
8.1% Changing requirements
8.7% Lack of planning
9.3% Lack of executive support
9.9% Unrealistic expectations
10.6% Lack of resources
12.4% Lack of user involvement
13.1% Poor Risk Management

0 5 10 15
(Source Gartner 2005)

PMP , RMP

PMP , RMP


. -

. -

. -

. -

PMP , RMP

. -

PMP , RMP
 CPM

11 Apr 2006

PMP , RMP

() CPM


09 May 2006
Analysis
100% 01/Jun/06 S imulation:
Iterations:
Latin Hypercube
1000
95% 14/May/06
105 90% 09/May/06 Convergence
85% 05/May/06
22 Apr 2006 80% 03/May/06
P lan Finish D ate:
C onverged in 200 iterations
(variation < 1% over 100 iterations)
75% 30/Apr/06 Total Plan C ost:
Cumulative Frequency

84 C onverged in 200 iterations

70% 29/Apr/06 (variation < 1% over 100 iterations)
65% 27/Apr/06
Statistics
60% 25/Apr/06
Minimum: 27/Mar/06
63 55% 23/Apr/06 Maximum: 01/Jun/06
Hits

50% 22/Apr/06 Mean: 22/Apr/06

Max Hits: 117
45% 21/Apr/06 S td D eviation: 11.95
40% 19/Apr/06
S elected Confidence
42 35% 17/Apr/06 90%: 09/May/06
D eterministic Finish: 11/Apr/06
30% 16/Apr/06
P robability 18%
25% 14/Apr/06
20% 12/Apr/06
21
15% 10/Apr/06
10% 07/Apr/06
5% 04/Apr/06
0
27/Mar/06 12/Apr/06 28/Apr/06 14/May/06 30/May/06
Distribution (start of interval)

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22 Apr 2006 P50
09 May 2006 P90








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Input From Inputs Process and Tools Outputs Output To

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Project Contract
Department

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Department
Project Scope
Statement
Human Resource


Organization
Chart

Department
.
Planning Meetings and
Project Office Cost Management Plan Analysis

Project Risk Sub-Processes No.

Management Plan 2,3,4,5,6,7
Schedule Management
Project Office
Plan
Reference Guide

Communication
Project Office
Management Plan

Company Risk
PMO
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PMO
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Sub-process No. 1
Management Plan

Interviews with Risk

Project CBS Project
Cost
Estimates

Ownres

Project Schedule
Project Schedule
Estimates Information Gathering
Techniques:
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Project Office Project Documents
- ...
Project Uncertainties Sub-Process No.3

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Project Contract
Department
Assumption Analysis

Project Scope
Project Office
Statement

Documents Review

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Sub-process No. 1 Consequences Analysis
Management Plan

Interviews with Risk

Sub-process No. 2 Project Uncertainties
Ownres

Information Gathering
Revised Risks and Techniques:
Sub-process No. 7
Issues - Brainstorming
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Cost
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Updated Risk
Sub-processes No. 4
Management Form
Assumption Analysis
Project Schedule
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Estimates
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Sub-processes No. 4
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PMO Central Risk Data Bank Documents Review

Updated Project Risk

Sub-processes No. 4
Data Bank

All relevant Records and Historical

SWOT
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Project Contract Checklist Analysis
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Inputs From Inputs Process and Tools Outputs Outputs To

Project Risk
Sub-process No. 1
Management Plan

Project Planning &

Project Status
Control Department
Prioritized Risks Sub-processes No. 5

Information of Impacts P&I Matrix

Risk
Owners

and Probabilities
Prioritized Issues Sub-processes No. 5

Revised Information of Impact Calculation

Sub-processes No. 7 Impacts and Techniques Completed Project Risk
Probabilities Sub-processes No. 5
Data Bank

Completed Risk Risk Data Quality

Sub-processes No. 3 Assessment
Management Form Completed Risk
Sub-processes No. 5
Management Form

Completed Issue Risk Categorization

Sub-processes No. 3
Management Form Completed Issue
Sub-processes No. 5
Management Form

Completed Project Risk Risk Urgency

Sub-processes No. 3
Data Bank Assessment

Project Scope
Project Office Expert Judjment
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Data from similar

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Activities / Time Impact Probability Final Duration
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Opt. M.L. Pess. Opt. M.L. Pess.

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Project Risk
Sub-process No. 1
Management Plan

Sub-Process No. 4 Prioritized Risks

Sub-Process No. 4 Prioritized Issues

Information of Impacts
Risk Owners
and Probabilitis Interviews With Risk
Owners Time Probabilistic
Sub-Process No. 7
Distribution Diagram

Project Planning &

Project Status
Control Department
Simulation Techniques
and Softwares Cost Probabilistic
Sub-Process No. 7
Distribution Diagram
Completed Project Risk
Sub-processes No. 4
Data Bank

Techniques of
Quantitative Risk Score
Calculating Impacts Sub-Process No. 7
Completed Risk of Project Activities
Sub-processes No. 4
Management Form

Probability Distributions Completed Project Risk

Completed Issue Sub-processes No. 6
Sub-processes No. 4 Data Bank
Management Form

Completed Risk
Revised Risks/Issues Sensitivity Analysis Sub-processes No. 6
Sub-processes No. 7 Management Form
Impacts

Revised Risks Completed Issue

Sub-processes No. 7 Expected Monetary Sub-processes No. 6
Probabilities Management Form
Value Analysis

Cost and Schedule

Project Office
Management Plan

Data from similar

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projects

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X X =
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30

17
25 115
116 100
119 113
20 114
120 101
Probability

102 106
15
103
28
98 130
105 129 107 109
10 95
99 111 112
110
117
5

0
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70

Impact

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:Primavera Risk Analysis

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:

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:

- Pearson
- Spearman
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Oracle- Primavera Risk Analysis

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.
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Inputs From Inputs Process and Tools Outputs Outputs To

Project Management
Projec t Office Revised Ris ks and
Plan
Sub-proc ess es No. 3
Issues

Time Probabilis tic

Sub-proc ess es No. 5
Distribution Diagram Rev ised Projec t
Sub-proc ess es No. 1
Management Plan

Cost Probabilistic
Sub-proc ess es No. 5 Revis ed Information of
Distribution Diagram
Impacts and Sub-proc ess es No. 4
Probabilities

Report Writing
Risk Score of Project
Sub-proc ess es No. 5 Revised Risk s/Is sues
Activities
Sub-processes No. 5
Impacts

All Techniques of
Previous Sub-
Sub-proc ess es No. 6 Risk res ponse Plan Processes Rev ised Risks
Sub-processes No. 5
Probabilities

Risk Audits
Risks / Issues
Sub-proc ess es No. 6
Responses Rev ised Risk response
Sub-processes No. 6
Plan

Status Meetings
Completed Project Risk
Sub-proc ess es No. 6
Data Bank Rev ised Risks
Sub-processes No. 6
Responses

Completed Risk
Sub-proc ess es No. 6
Management Form Change Requests Project Office

Completed Issue Project Documents

Sub-proc ess es No. 6 Project Office
Management Form Updates

Organizational Process
Organization
Project Office Performance Reports Ass ets Updates

PMP , RMP

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