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DHG 20151123 PHTT
DHG 20151123 PHTT
See important disclosure at the end of this document www.vcsc.com.vn | VCSC<GO> Viet Capital Securities | 1
tng nh 1) doanh thu phn phi thng hiu Eugica v 2) ghi nhn doanh thu ca
qu tng khuyn mi c phn loi li theo Thng t 200, thay v ghi nhn vo chi
HOLD
ph hng bn nh trc y. Trc , DHG bn thng hiu Eugica cho Mega
Science (Thi Lan) trong nm 2013, sau DHG k hp ng phn phi sn phm
Eugica ti Vit Nam t thng 10/2014 n thng 12/2017. LNST tr li ch CTS tng
14,6% so vi qu 3/2014 khi thu sut thc t gim cn 16,3% trong qu 3/2015 so
vi 20,1% trong cng k, nh vo vic min gim thu cho nh my non-Betalactam.
9 thng
9 thng 9 thng 2015 vs.
T ng Ghi ch
2015 2014 9 thng
2014
Doanh thu 2.459 2.601 -5,5%
T sn xut 1.857 2.385 -22,1%
Thng mi v khc 602 216 178,3%
Trong , Eugica 100 0 n/m
Sn phm MSD ~100 ~90 ~11,1%
Nguyn liu th & Qu
402 126 219,0%
khuyn mi
LN gp 980 1.387 -29,3% Gim do thay i phng thc k ton
theo TT200. Qu tng khuyn mi theo
hnh thc Mua X c A gi c ghi
Bin LN gp 39,8% 53,3% nhn l gi vn hng bn thay v chi ph
bn hng nh trc y
See important disclosure at the end of this document www.vcsc.com.vn | VCSC<GO> Viet Capital Securities | 2
Hnh 1: So snh doanh thu hng qu 2014 v 2015
1500 t ng DT bn hng
HOLD
ha
1200
FY14
900 FY15
600
300
0
1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q
c tnh D bo
T ng Ghi ch
2015 2016
Tng 7% so vi nm 2015 nh mc tng trng doanh thu t
Doanh thu 3.622 3.876 sn xut 6,3% v 9,7% ca mng doanh thu hng ha khc,
a c cu doanh thu t t l 78:22
T sn
2.848 3.028 +6,3%
xut
Thng
mi v 774 849 +9,7%
khc
LN gp 1.375 1.428 +3,9%
See important disclosure at the end of this document www.vcsc.com.vn | VCSC<GO> Viet Capital Securities | 3
Bin LN Bin LN gp thu hp do cnh tranh gia tng v gi u vo cao
38,0% 36,9%
gp hn, chi ph sn xut cao hn (in, nhn cng)
Chi ph bn
453 485 +7,0%
HOLD
hng
CP bn
hng trong
12,5% 12,5% Khng i
% doanh
thu
LN t
652 655 Khng thay i nhiu
HKD
LNST tr Tng 2,9% theo gi nh thu sut gim cn 11% so vi 15%
li ch 554 570 nm 2015 ca chng ti, nh vo s ng gp ca nh my
CTS non-Betalactam mi.
See important disclosure at the end of this document www.vcsc.com.vn | VCSC<GO> Viet Capital Securities | 4
Bo co ti chnh
KQLN 2014A 2015F 2016F Bng CKT 2014A
HOLD
2015F 2016F
t ng t ng
Doanh thu thun 3.913 3.622 3.876 Tin v tng ng 496 634 804
Gi vn hng bn -1.782 -2.247 -2.448 u t TC ngn hn 261 261 261
Li nhun gp 2.131 1.375 1.428 Cc khon phi thu 753 645 690
Chi ph bn hng -1.099 -453 -485 Hng tn kho 781 677 738
Chi ph qun l DN -313 -270 -289 TS ngn hn khc 95 95 95
LN thun HKD (EBIT) 719 652 655 Tng TS ngn hn 2.386 2.312 2.588
Thu nhp ti chnh -2 -5 -2 TS di hn (gp) 1.141 1.289 1.478
Chi ph ti chnh -5 -4 -9 - Khu hao ly k -357 -459 -567
Trong , chi ph li vay -5 -4 -9 TS di hn (rng) 784 829 911
L/li t cng ty lin kt 0 0 0 u t TC di hn - - -
L/li thun khc 10 10 - TS di hn khc 313 313 313
Li nhun trc thu 722 652 641 Tng TS di hn 1.096 1.142 1.224
Thu TNDN -188 -98 -70 Tng Ti sn 3.483 3.454 3.811
LNST trc li ch CTS 534 555 570
Li ch CTS 0 0 0 Cc khon phi thu 261 276 300
LNST tr LI CTS. theo bo co 533 554 570 N ngn hn 177 160 159
LNST tr LI CTS. iu chnh (1) 526 546 570 Phi tr ngn hn 682 362 388
EBITDA 799 774 786 Tng n ngn hn 1.120 798 847
Vay v n di hn 0 0 0
EPS c bn theo bo co. VND 6.118 5.626 5.784 Phi tr di hn khc 69 69 69
EPS c bn iu chnh (1). VND 5.319 5.532 5.784 Tng n 1.189 868 916
EPS pha long (2). VND 5.319 5.532 5.784 C phiu u i 0 0 0
Vn iu l 0 0 0
CH S 2014A 2015F 2016F Thng d vn CP 872 872 872
Tng trng Li nhun gi li 1.405 1.698 2.007
Tng trng doanh thu 15,4% -7,4% 7,0% Vn CSH khc - - -
Tng trng LN HKD 19,9% -9,3% 0,4% Li ch CTS 17 17 17
Tng trng LN trc thu 19,2% -9,8% -0,3% Tng vn CSH 2.294 2.587 2.895
Tng trng EPS 23,1% 4,0% 4,6% Tng cng ngun vn 3.483 3.454 3.811
Kh nng sinh li
Bin LN gp 52,9% 38,0% 36,9% LU CHUYN TIN T 2014A 2015F 2016F
Bin LN t HKD (EBIT) 18,4% 18,0% 16,9% t ng
Bin EBITDA 20,4% 15,2% 14,0% Tin u nm 613 496 634
Bin LNST tr li ch CTS. iu
11,8% 13,3% 13,0% Li nhun sau thu 533 554 570
chnh
ROE 23,4% 21,6% 19,8% Khu hao 80 102 107
ROA 13,3% 13,9% 13,2% Thay i vn lu ng -227 -94 -56
iu chnh khc -81 0 0
Ch s hiu qu vn hnh Tin t HKD 305 563 621
S ngy tn kho 158 118 105 Chi mua sm TSC -253 -148 -189
S ngy phi thu 59 70 63 u t -87 0 0
S ngy phi tr 54 44 43 Tin t H u t -340 -148 -189
TG lun chuyn tin 162 145 125 C tc tr -132 -261 -261
Tng (gim) vn c phn 0 0 0
Thanh khon Tng (gim) n di hn 0 0 0
CS thanh ton hin hnh 2,1 2,9 3,1 Tng (gim) n ngn hn 50 -17 -1
CS thanh ton nhanh 1,4 2,0 2,2 Khc 0 0 0
CS thanh ton tin mt 0,4 0,8 0,9 Tin t hot ng TC -82 -278 -263
N/Ti sn 0,1 0,0 0,0 Tng lu chuyn tin t -117 137 170
N/Vn CSH 0,1 0,1 0,1 Tin cui nm 496 634 804
N rng/Vn CSH -25,5% -28,6% -31,5%
Kh nng thanh ton li vay 148,6 148,4 71,9
See important disclosure at the end of this document www.vcsc.com.vn | VCSC<GO> Viet Capital Securities | 5
KQLN theo qu
2015
KQ tnh t K hoch HOLD
D bo ca
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 u nm ca cng ty VCSC
Doanh thu. t ng 669 789 991 N/A 2.459 4.000 3.622
Mc tiu LNST, cha iu chnh N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Mc tiu LNST, iu chnh N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Bin li nhun gp 43,6% 39,4% 36,8% N/A 39,8% N/A 38,0%
Bin li nhun t hot ng 19,5% 21,2% 20,3% N/A 20,3% N/A 18,0%
Bin LNST tr li ch CTS
14,8% 16,1% 16,6% N/A 17,3% N/A 15,1%
(iu chnh)
Tng trng doanh thu so vi
-8,0% -18,6% 9,1% N/A -5,5% 2,2% -7,4%
cng k nm trc
Tng trng LN t hot ng so
-13,8% -12,7% 11,8% N/A -4,5% N/A -9,3%
vi cng k nm trc
KQ tnh t K hoch
2014 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
u nm ca cng ty
Doanh thu. t ng 728 976 908 1.301 3.913 3.880
Mc tiu LNST, cha iu chnh 118 154 142 119 533 686
Mc tiu LNST, iu chnh 106 137 127 95 464 N/A
Bin li nhun gp 52,4% 52,7% 54,3% 57,1% 53% N/A
Bin li nhun t hot ng 20,8% 19,7% 19,8% 14,5% 18,4% N/A
Bin LNST tr li ch CTS
16,1% 15,3% 15,2% 8,1% 13,4% N/A
(iu chnh)
Tng trng doanh thu so vi
-5,6% 24,4% 8,4% 20,3% 15,4% 14,4%
cng k nm trc
Tng trng LN t hot ng so
8,5% 38,6% 29,8% 3,2% 19,9% N/A
vi cng k nm trc
KQ tnh t K hoch
2013 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
u nm ca cng ty
Doanh thu. t ng 770,4 779,3 838,0 1.090,0 3.391 3.200
Mc tiu LNST, cha iu chnh 116 126 209 138 589 570
Mc tiu LNST, iu chnh 90 90 87 109 377 N/A
Bin li nhun gp 44,8% 47,6% 46,3% 48,3% 50% N/A
Bin li nhun t hot ng 18,1% 17,8% 16,5% 16,8% 17,7% N/A
Bin LNST tr li ch CTS
11,6% 11,5% 10,4% 10,0% 11,1% N/A
(iu chnh)
Tng trng doanh thu so vi
24,2% 12,7% 17,5% 20,3% 20,3% 9,2%
cng k nm trc
Tng trng LN t hot ng so
26,4% -20,9% 29,1% 49,5% 16,2% N/A
vi cng k nm trc
See important disclosure at the end of this document www.vcsc.com.vn | VCSC<GO> Viet Capital Securities | 6
D bo KLQN
D bo
So snh HOLD
D bo d bo
2015
KQ 2014 2015 (hin 2015 hin Ghi ch
(trc
nay) nay vi
y)
KQ2014
t ng
Doanh thu 3.913 3.622 3.622 -7,4%
iu chnh gim do nhng tc ng su hn ca
LN gp 2.131 1.573 1.375 -35,5%
TT200
iu chnh gim do nhng tc ng su hn ca
Chi ph bn hng & marketing -1.099 -670 -453 -58,8%
TT200
Chi ph qun l -313 -254 -270 -13,7%
LN thun HKD 719 649 652 -9,3%
Chi ph li vay -5 -4 -4 -8,3%
LN khng t HKD 10 10 10 0%
LN trc thu 722 652 652 -9,7%
LN sau thu 534 555 555 3,9%
LN rng sau thu (sau li ch
533 554 554 3,9%
CTS)
EBITDA 799 771 774 -3,5%
See important disclosure at the end of this document www.vcsc.com.vn | VCSC<GO> Viet Capital Securities | 7
Cc ch s chnh
DHG (d bo HOLD
2015) IMP* TRA* DMC*
Gi tr vn ha (triu
269 50 89 48
USD)
LNST 554 101 190 140
EPS 5.626 2.982 7.084 4.455
PER 12,3 13,8 11,3 9,0
PER trung bnh c
11,8
trng s
Ngun: (*) K hoch ca cng ty
60000
PHTT
68.900
40000
20000
0
T02/14
T03/14
T04/14
T05/14
T06/14
T07/14
T08/14
T09/14
T10/14
T11/14
T12/14
T01/15
T02/15
T03/15
T04/15
T05/15
T06/15
T07/15
T08/15
T09/15
T10/15
T11/15
See important disclosure at the end of this document www.vcsc.com.vn | VCSC<GO> Viet Capital Securities | 8
HOLD
Xc nhn ca chuyn vin phn tch
Ti, Nguyn Th Kim Chung, xc nhn rng nhng quan im c trnh by trong bo co ny phn nh ng quan im
c nhn ca chng ti v cng ty ny. Chng ti cng xc nhn rng khng c phn th lao no ca chng ti , ang,
hoc s trc tip hay gin tip c lin quan n cc khuyn ngh hay quan im th hin trong bo co ny. Cc chuyn
vin phn tch nghin cu ph trch cc bo co ny nhn c th lao da trn nhiu yu t khc nhau, bao gm cht
lng, tnh chnh xc ca nghin cu, v doanh thu ca cng ty, trong bao gm doanh thu t cc n v kinh doanh
khc nh b phn Mi gii t chc, hoc T vn doanh nghip.
Ni dung chnh trong h thng khuyn ngh: Khuyn ngh c a ra da trn mc tng/gim tuyt i ca gi c
phiu t n gi mc tiu, c xc nh bng cng thc (gi mc tiu - gi hin ti)/gi hin ti v khng lin quan
n hot ng th trng. Cng thc ny c p dng t ngy 1/1/2014.
Tr khi c khuyn co khc, nhng khuyn ngh u t ch c gi tr trong vng 12 thng. Nhng bin ng gi trong tng
lai c th lm cho cc khuyn ngh tm thi khng khp vi mc chnh lch gia gi th trng ca c phiu v gi mc
tiu nn vic vic din gii cc khuyn ngh u t cn c thc hin mt cch linh hot.
Gi mc tiu: Trong hu ht trng hp, gi mc tiu s tng ng vi nh gi ca chuyn vin phn tch v gi tr hp
l hin ti ca c phiu. Gi mc tiu l mc gi c phiu nn c giao dch hin ti nu th trng ng quan im
ca chuyn vin phn tch v c nhng yu t xc tc cn thit to ra s thay i nhn thc trong thi hn nht nh.
Tuy nhin, nu chuyn vin phn tin rng trong thi hn xc nh s khng c tin tc, s kin hoc yu t thc y cn
thit c phiu c th t n gi tr hp l th gi mc tiu c th khc vi gi tr hp l. V th, trong hu ht trng
hp, khuyn ngh ca chng ti ch l nh gi s cha ph hp gia gi th trng hin ti v gi tr hp l hin ti ca
c phiu theo quan im ca chng ti.
Phng php nh gi: xc nh gi mc tiu, chuyn vin phn tch c th s dng nhiu phng php nh gi
khc nhau, bao gm nhng khng gii hn, phng php chit khu dng tin t do v nh gi so snh. Vic la chn
phng php ty thuc vo tng ngnh, cng ty, tnh cht c phiu v nhiu yu t khc. Kt qu nh gi c th da trn
mt hoc kt hp nhiu phng php sau: 1) nh gi da trn nhiu ch s (P/E, P/CF, EV/doanh thu, EV/EBIT,
EV/EBITA, EV/EBITDA), so snh nhm cng ty v da vo s liu qu kh, 2) M hnh chit khu (DCF, DVMA, DDM);
3) Phng php tnh tng gi tr cc thnh phn hoc cc phng php nh gi da vo ti sn; v 4) Phng php
nh gi s dng li nhun kinh t (Li nhun thng d, EVA). Cc m hnh nh gi ny ph thuc vo cc yu t kinh
t v m nh tng trng GDP, li sut, t gi, nguyn liu vi cc gi nh khc v nn kinh t cng nh nhng ri ro vn
c trong cng ty ang xem xt. Ngoi ra, tm l th trng cng c th nh hng n vic nh gi cng ty. Qu trnh nh
gi cn cn c vo nhng k vng c th thay i nhanh chng m khng cn thng bo, ty vo s pht trin ring ca
tng ngnh.
Ri ro: Tnh hnh hot ng trong qu kh khng nht thit s din ra tng t cho cc kt qu trong tng lai. T gi
ngoi t c th nh hng bt li n gi tr, gi hoc li nhun ca bt k chng khon hay cng c ti chnh no c lin
quan c ni n trong bo co ny. c t vn u t, thc hin giao dch hoc cc yu cu khc, khch hng
nn lin h vi n v i din kinh doanh ca khu vc c gii p.
See important disclosure at the end of this document www.vcsc.com.vn | VCSC<GO> Viet Capital Securities | 9
Lin h
HOLD
CTCP Chng khon Bn Vit (VCSC)
www.vcsc.com.vn
Tr s chnh Chi nhnh H Ni
Bitexco, Lu 15, S 2 Hi Triu 109 Trn Hng o
Qun 1, Tp. HCM Qun Hon Kim, H Ni
+848 3914 3588 +844 6262 6999
ng Vn Php, CV cao cp ext 143 Nguyn Tho Vy, Chuyn vin ext 147
inh Th Thy Dng, CV cao cp ext 140 Hong Minh Hi, Chuyn vin ext 138
Nguyn L Hong Yn, CV cao cp ext 124
L Minh Thy, Chuyn vin ext 116
L Th M Dung, Chuyn vin ext 149
Nguyn Thanh Nga, Chuyn vin ext 199
V m v Th trng Du kh
Nguyn Th Minh, Trng phng ext 142 Nguyn c Tun, Trng phng ext 185
L Ngc Trm, CV cao cp ext 194 Ng Thy Trm, Chuyn vin ext 135
L Trng Ngha, Chuyn vin ext 181 Nguyn Th Kim Chung, Chuyn vin ext 132
Dng M Thanh, CV v m ext 173
See important disclosure at the end of this document www.vcsc.com.vn | VCSC<GO> Viet Capital Securities | 10
HOLD
Khuyn co
Bo co ny c vit v pht hnh bi Cng ty C phn Chng khon Bn Vit. Bo co ny c vit da trn ngun
thng tin ng tin cy vo thi im cng b. Cng ty C phn Chng khon Bn Vit khng chu trch nhim v chnh
xc ca nhng thng tin ny. Quan im, d bo v nhng c lng trong bo co ny ch th hin kin ca tc gi
ti thi im pht hnh. Nhng quan im ny khng th hin quan im chung ca Cng ty C phn Chng khon Bn
Vit v c th thay i m khng cn thng bo trc. Bo co ny ch nhm mc ch cung cp thng tin cho cc t
chc u t cng nh cc nh u t c nhn ca Cng ty c phn chng khon Bn Vit v khng mang tnh cht mi
cho mua hay bn bt k chng khon no c tho lun trong bo co ny. Quyt nh ca nh u t nn da vo
nhng s t vn c lp v thch hp vi tnh hnh ti chnh cng nh mc tiu u t ring bit. Bo co ny khng
c php sao chp, ti to, pht hnh v phn phi vi bt k mc ch no nu khng c s chp thun bng vn
bn ca Cng ty C phn Chng khon Bn Vit. Xin vui lng ghi r ngun trch dn nu s dng cc thng tin trong bo
co ny.
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