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PNJ 20141023 KQ
PNJ 20141023 KQ
M t cng ty
c thnh lp trong nm 1988 v nim yt trn
sn HOSE vo nm 2009, PNJ l mt trong hai
cng ty sn xut trang sc ln nht ti Vit Nam vi
26% th phn vng trang sc. Trong nm 2012, PNJ
c t chc Plimsoll ca Anh Quc nh gi v
xp hng 16 trong danh sch 500 cng ty trang sc
ln nht trn th gii. Cc ch s chnh 2012A 2013A 2014F 2015F 2016F
Doanh thu (t ng) 6.717 8.914 7.699 8.933 10.438
LN rng sau thu (t ng) 254 163 277 290 366
Din bin tng i gi c phiu Bin LN gp (%) 8,9% 7,5% 10,4% 9,9% 10,1%
Bin LN t hot ng (%) 3,6% 3,3% 4,9% 4,8% 5,0%
Bin LNST (%) 3,8% 1,8% 3,6% 3,2% 3,5%
PNJ VNIndex EPS pha long hon ton (ng) 3.365 2.158 3.667 3.834 4.847
50% Tng trng EPS (%) -1,0% -35,9% 69,9% 4,6% 26,4%
30% Gi tr DN / EBITDA 6,4 9,0 8,2 7,9 6,7
10% Gi CP / Dng tin t do, theo gi
TT 7,8 179,7 22,8 11,7 12,7
-10%
Gi CP / Thu nhp, theo gi TT 11,2 17,5 10,2 9,8 7,8
T10/13
T04/14
T12/13
T02/14
T06/14
T08/14
T10/14
See important disclosure at the end of this document www.vcsc.com.vn | VCSC<GO> Viet Capital Securities | 1
Bo co Ti chnh
t ng 2012A 2013A 2014F 2015F 2016F t ng 2012A 2013A 2014F HOLD
2015F 2016F
KQLN Bng CKT
Doanh thu thun 6.717 8.914 7.699 8.933 10.438 Tin v tng ng 469 508 439 509 595
- Gi vn hng bn -6.118 -8.244 -6.894 -8.045 -9.387 u t TC ngn hn 0 0 0 0 0
Li nhun gp 599 670 804 888 1.051 Cc khon phi thu 8 44 67 74 82
- Chi ph bn hng -268 -262 -314 -339 -397 Hng tn kho 791 1.087 1.112 1.212 1.286
- Chi ph qun l DN -90 -113 -114 -116 -136 TS ngn hn 75 79 68 79 92
LN thun HKD 241 294 376 432 519 Tng TS ngn hn 1.343 1.718 1.685 1.874 2.055
- (L) / li t gi 1 9 0 0 0 TS di hn (gp) 520 616 700 798 913
- Li nhun khc 170 13 65 30 33 - Khu hao ly k -88 -118 -139 -164 -191
EBIT 412 317 441 462 552 TS di hn (rng) 432 498 561 635 722
- Chi ph li vay -101 -84 -86 -91 -94 u t TC di hn 761 590 590 590 590
Li nhun trc thu 310 233 355 372 458 TS di hn khc 7 152 152 152 152
- Thu TNDN -56 -64 -78 -82 -92 Tng TS di hn 1.200 1.239 1.302 1.376 1.463
LNST 254 169 277 290 366 Tng Ti sn 2.543 2.957 2.987 3.250 3.518
- Li ch CTS 0 -6 0 0 0
LNST c ng CT M 254 163 277 290 366 Phi tr ngn hn 52 111 68 80 93
3.855 2.158 3.667 3.834 4.847 N ngn hn 1.008 1.164 1.232 1.338 1.366
EBITDA Phi tr ngn hn khc 70 140 121 141 164
SL CP lu hnh (triu) 66,0 75,6 75,6 75,6 75,6 N ngn hn 1.130 1.415 1.422 1.558 1.623
SL CP pha long hon ton
(triu) 75,6 75,6 75,6 75,6 75,6 Vay v n di hn 170 130 117 104 91
EPS 3.855 2.158 3.667 3.834 4.847 Phi tr di hn khc 0 6 5 6 7
EPS pha long hon ton 3.360 2.158 3.667 3.834 4.847 Tng n di hn 171 135 121 109 97
Tng n 1.301 1.551 1.543 1.667 1.720
2012A 2013A 2014F 2015F 2016F C phiu u i 0 0 0 0 0
Tng trng Thng d 105 105 105 105 105
-
Tng trng doanh thu -62,6% 32,7% 13,6% 16,0% 16,9% Vn c phn 720 756 756 756 756
Tng trng LN HKD -31,3% 22,0% 28,1% 14,9% 20,1% Li nhun gi li 417 457 583 722 937
-
Tng trng EBIT -2,5% 23,1% 39,4% 4,7% 19,5% Li ch CTS 0 88 0 0 0
-
Tng trng EPS -1,0% 35,9% 69,9% 4,5% 26,4% Vn ch s hu 1.242 1.406 1.444 1.583 1.798
Tng cng ngun vn 2.543 2.957 2.987 3.250 3.518
Kh nng sinh li
Bin LN gp % 8,9% 7,5% 10,4% 9,9% 10,1% t ng 2012A 2013A 2014F 2015F 2016F
Bin LN t H % 3,6% 3,3% 4,9% 4,8% 5,0% DNG TIN
EBIT % 6,1% 3,6% 5,7% 5,2% 5,3% Tin u nm 454 469 508 438 509
EBITDA % 6,3% 3,8% 6,0% 5,4% 5,6% Li nhun sau thu 254 163 277 290 366
Bin LN rng % 3,8% 1,8% 3,6% 3,2% 3,5% Khu hao 15 24 22 24 28
ROE % 21,2% 12,8% 19,5% 19,1% 21,7% Thay i vn lu ng 58 -231 -99 -88 -58
ROA % 9,3% 6,1% 9,3% 9,3% 10,8% iu chnh khc -79 32 -89 1 1
Tin t hot ng KD 249 -12 111 227 337
Ch s hiu qu
vn hnh Chi mua sm TSC -58 -49 -85 -98 -115
S ngy tn kho 52,5 41,6 58,9 55,0 50,0 u t 131 154 0 0 0
S ngy phi thu 1,3 1,1 3,2 3,0 2,9 Tin t H u t 73 105 -85 -98 -115
S ngy phi tr 5,2 3,6 3,6 3,6 3,6 C tc tr -150 -94 -151 -151 -151
TG lun chuyn tin 48,5 39,0 58,4 54,4 49,3 Tng (gim) vn 0 36 0 0 0
Tng (gim) n ngn/di
hn -156 115 55 93 15
Thanh khon Tin t hot ng TC 0 0 0 0 0
CS thanh ton hin hnh 1,2 1,2 1,2 1,2 1,3 Tng lu chuyn tin t 14 39 -69 70 86
CS thanh ton nhanh 0,5 0,4 0,4 0,4 0,5 Tin cui nm 469 508 438 509 594
CS thanh ton tin mt 0,4 0,4 0,3 0,3 0,4
N/Ti sn 0,5 0,4 0,5 0,4 0,4
N/Vn s dng 0,5 0,5 0,5 0,5 0,4
N/Vn CSH 0,9 0,9 0,9 0,9 0,8
Kh nng thanh ton li vay 4,1 3,8 5,1 5,1 5,9
See important disclosure at the end of this document www.vcsc.com.vn | VCSC<GO> Viet Capital Securities | 2
Kt qu hot ng theo qu (theo bo co) HOLD
Mc tiu ca D bo ca
2014 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 YTD PNJ VCSC
Doanh thu 1.849 1.760 1.669 N/A 5.278 N/A 7.699
Li nhun gp 212 171 182 N/A 565 N/A 804
Bin LN gp (%) 11,5% 9,7% 10,9% N/A 10,7% N/A 10,4%
LN hot ng 114 80 89 N/A 283 N/A 376
Bin LN hot ng (%) 6,2% 4,5% 5,3% N/A 5,4% N/A 4,9%
LNST 75 49 82 N/A 206 202 277
Bin LNST (%) 4,1% 2,8% 4,9% N/A 3,9% N/A 3,6%
2013 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 YTD
Doanh thu 1.769 2.043 2.552 2.541 8.911
Li nhun gp 176 132 153 204 670
Bin LN gp (%) 10,0% 6,5% 6,0% 8,0% 7,5%
LN hot ng 98 49 59 88 294
Bin LN hot ng (%) 5,6% 2,4% 2,3% 3,5% 3,3%
LNST 66 24 33 46 168
Bin LNST (%) 3,7% 1,2% 1,3% 1,8% 2,0%
2012 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 YTD
Doanh thu 2.036 1.626 1.519 1.536 6.717
Li nhun gp 206 124 155 114 599
Bin LN gp (%) 10,1% 7,6% 10,2% 7,4% 8,9%
LN hot ng 111 22 82 26 241
Bin LN hot ng (%) 5,5% 1,3% 5,4% 1,7% 3,6%
LNST 93 40 87 33 254
Bin LNST (%) 4,6% 2,5% 5,8% 2,2% 3,8%
2011 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 YTD
Doanh thu 3.737 4.542 6.498 3.189 17.967
Li nhun gp 225 141 197 184 746
Bin LN gp (%) 6,0% 3,1% 3,0% 5,8% 4,2%
LN hot ng 129 61 102 62 355
Bin LN hot ng (%) 3,5% 1,4% 1,6% 1,9% 2,0%
LNST 94 54 50 49 247
Bin LNST (%) 2,5% 1,2% 0,8% 1,5% 1,4%
See important disclosure at the end of this document www.vcsc.com.vn | VCSC<GO> Viet Capital Securities | 3
D bo cho nm ti kha 2014
2013 2014 - D bo 2014 - D bo YoY % (d Ghi ch HOLD
trc y hin nay bo hin nay)
Doanh thu 8.914 10.358 7.699 Khng cn hp nht SFC trong nm 2014
See important disclosure at the end of this document www.vcsc.com.vn | VCSC<GO> Viet Capital Securities | 4
S lc v Cng ty
HOLD
Lnh vc kinh doanh Sn xut trang sc vng v bc, nh bn l trang sc
hng u Vit Nam
Doanh thu 422 triu USD (2013)
Li nhun rng 8 triu USD (2013)
Hnh 1: Mt s ch bo v cng ty
C cu doanh thu 4 nm qua C cu LN gp 4 nm qua
20,000
15,000 800
10,000 600
400
5,000
200
0 0
2010 2011 2012 2013 2010 2011 2012 2013
Retail Retail
Gold Jewellery Wholesale Gold Jewellery Wholesale
Gold bar trading Gold bar trading
Others Others
C cu chi ph C cu vn 4 nm qua
Khc 3,000
1%
Khu 2,500
Nhn hao 2,000
cngr 0%
3% 1,500
1,000
500
Nguy 0
n 2010 2011 2012 2013
liu
96% Total Liabilities
Total Shareholders' Equity
See important disclosure at the end of this document www.vcsc.com.vn | VCSC<GO> Viet Capital Securities | 5
Lch s khuyn ngh HOLD
Ngy Khuyn ngh Gi ng ca Gi mc tiu
See important disclosure at the end of this document www.vcsc.com.vn | VCSC<GO> Viet Capital Securities | 6
Xc nhn ca chuyn vin phn tch
HOLD
Ti, Nguyn Th Anh o, xc nhn rng nhng quan im c trnh by trong bo co ny phn nh ng quan
im c nhn ca chng ti v cng ty ny. Chng ti cng xc nhn rng khng c phn th lao no ca chng ti
, ang, hoc s trc tip hay gin tip c lin quan n cc khuyn ngh hay quan im th hin trong bo co ny.
Cc chuyn vin phn tch nghin cu ph trch cc bo co ny nhn c th lao da trn nhiu yu t khc
nhau, bao gm cht lng, tnh chnh xc ca nghin cu, v doanh thu ca cng ty, trong bao gm doanh thu t
cc n v kinh doanh khc nh b phn Mi gii t chc, hoc T vn doanh nghip.
Ni dung chnh trong h thng khuyn ngh: Khuyn ngh c a ra da trn mc tng/gim tuyt i ca gi
c phiu t n gi mc tiu, c xc nh bng cng thc (gi mc tiu - gi hin ti)/gi hin ti v khng lin
quan n hot ng th trng. Cng thc ny c p dng t ngy 1/1/2014.
Tr khi c khuyn co khc, nhng khuyn ngh u t ch c gi tr trong vng 12 thng. Nhng bin ng gi trong
tng lai c th lm cho cc khuyn ngh tm thi khng khp vi mc chnh lch gia gi th trng ca c phiu
v gi mc tiu nn vic vic din gii cc khuyn ngh u t cn c thc hin mt cch linh hot.
Gi mc tiu: Trong hu ht trng hp, gi mc tiu s tng ng vi nh gi ca chuyn vin phn tch v gi tr
hp l hin ti ca c phiu. Gi mc tiu l mc gi c phiu nn c giao dch hin ti nu th trng ng
quan im ca chuyn vin phn tch v c nhng yu t xc tc cn thit to ra s thay i nhn thc trong thi
hn nht nh. Tuy nhin, nu chuyn vin phn tin rng trong thi hn xc nh s khng c tin tc, s kin hoc yu
t thc y cn thit c phiu c th t n gi tr hp l th gi mc tiu c th khc vi gi tr hp l. V th,
trong hu ht trng hp, khuyn ngh ca chng ti ch l nh gi s cha ph hp gia gi th trng hin ti v
gi tr hp l hin ti ca c phiu theo quan im ca chng ti.
Phng php nh gi: xc nh gi mc tiu, chuyn vin phn tch c th s dng nhiu phng php nh gi
khc nhau, bao gm nhng khng gii hn, phng php chit khu dng tin t do v nh gi so snh. Vic la
chn phng php ty thuc vo tng ngnh, cng ty, tnh cht c phiu v nhiu yu t khc. Kt qu nh gi c
th da trn mt hoc kt hp nhiu phng php sau: 1) nh gi da trn nhiu ch s (P/E, P/CF, EV/doanh
thu, EV/EBIT, EV/EBITA, EV/EBITDA), so snh nhm cng ty v da vo s liu qu kh, 2) M hnh chit khu
(DCF, DVMA, DDM); 3) Phng php tnh tng gi tr cc thnh phn hoc cc phng php nh gi da vo ti
sn; v 4) Phng php nh gi s dng li nhun kinh t (Li nhun thng d, EVA). Cc m hnh nh gi ny
ph thuc vo cc yu t kinh t v m nh tng trng GDP, li sut, t gi, nguyn liu vi cc gi nh khc v nn
kinh t cng nh nhng ri ro vn c trong cng ty ang xem xt. Ngoi ra, tm l th trng cng c th nh hng
n vic nh gi cng ty. Qu trnh nh gi cn cn c vo nhng k vng c th thay i nhanh chng m khng
cn thng bo, ty vo s pht trin ring ca tng ngnh.
Ri ro: Tnh hnh hot ng trong qu kh khng nht thit s din ra tng t cho cc kt qu trong tng lai. T
gi ngoi t c th nh hng bt li n gi tr, gi hoc li nhun ca bt k chng khon hay cng c ti chnh
no c lin quan c ni n trong bo co ny. c t vn u t, thc hin giao dch hoc cc yu cu khc,
khch hng nn lin h vi n v i din kinh doanh ca khu vc c gii p.
See important disclosure at the end of this document www.vcsc.com.vn | VCSC<GO> Viet Capital Securities | 7
Lin h
HOLD
CTCP Chng khon Bn Vit (VCSC)
www.vcsc.com.vn
Tr s chnh Chi nhnh H Ni
Bitexco, Lu 15, S 2 Hi Triu 109 Trn Hng o
Qun 1, Tp. HCM Qun Hon Kim, H Ni
+84 8 3914 3588 +84 4 6262 6999
Tp. H Ch Minh H Ni
Chu Thin Trc Qunh Nguyn Huy Quang
+84 8 3914 3588, ext 222 +84 4 6262 6999, ext 312
quynh.chau@vcsc.com.vn quang.nguyen@vcsc.com.vn
Khuyn co
Bo co ny c vit v pht hnh bi Cng ty C phn Chng khon Bn Vit. Bo co ny c vit da trn ngun thng tin ng tin
cy vo thi im cng b. Cng ty C phn Chng khon Bn Vit khng chu trch nhim v chnh xc ca nhng thng tin ny.
Quan im, d bo v nhng c lng trong bo co ny ch th hin kin ca tc gi ti thi im pht hnh. Nhng quan im ny
khng th hin quan im chung ca Cng ty C phn Chng khon Bn Vit v c th thay i m khng cn thng bo trc. Bo co
ny ch nhm mc ch cung cp thng tin cho cc t chc u t cng nh cc nh u t c nhn ca Cng ty c phn chng khon
Bn Vit v khng mang tnh cht mi cho mua hay bn bt k chng khon no c tho lun trong bo co ny. Quyt nh ca nh
u t nn da vo nhng s t vn c lp v thch hp vi tnh hnh ti chnh cng nh mc tiu u t ring bit. Bo co ny khng
c php sao chp, ti to, pht hnh v phn phi vi bt k mc ch no nu khng c s chp thun bng vn bn ca Cng ty
C phn Chng khon Bn Vit. Xin vui lng ghi r ngun trch dn nu s dng cc thng tin trong bo co ny.
See important disclosure at the end of this document www.vcsc.com.vn | VCSC<GO> Viet Capital Securities | 8