modelo debemos ver que se cumplen los supuestos a

rmados
en la teora de Box-Jenkins. Principalmente debemos ver si los residuos tienen o no
una distribucion normal. Para ello vamos a utilizar el Test de Kolmogorov-Smirnov
.
Este test compara cuan parecidos son los datos al de una distribucion dada. En nu
estro
caso compararemos los residuos de los modelos con una distribucion normal de medi
a
0. Los estadsticos y p-valores vienen dados por la
gura 4.8
Modelo p-valor
Modelo1.1 0.1805
Modelo2.1 0.2545
Modelo3 0.3145
Modelo4 0.2901
Modelo5.1 0.0131
Modelo6.1 0.0028
Figura 4.8: Test Kolmogorov-Smirnov
Notemos que sacando los ultimos dos modelos, no es posible rechazar la hipotesis
nula; esBROWSE
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