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Thanks to R Parr, C Guesterin

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6 D 3 %
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* ;! / 9F4 9 ! FEFF = F:
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2

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F
3 * + +

, K; % % % ; /L
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::
:3 % % 3 !
* + + +
.3 2 M
F% N
* , = F:
C% F:% F:
F?% F:
F
* , =; = F:
C
* , = = F:
* , = = F:F?
* , =; / = F:F
'2
' ! . .% , = 7 2 8
? Hepatitis?

? Hepatitis,
Jaundiced not Jaundiced
but +BloodTest
?
BloodTest
! #
)2 + 2 K =2 % #=2#L
O= % =P M % % % N
/ + " 6) ;;"0 3 -
=P % =

Compute Probabilities of Dxi


given observations { =2 % #=2# }
* "0 = Q =2% % #= 2#
) '2
7 !3! R
<! 3 . '&' P2 + M* + , N

* + + 32 + !2
O *<
%+%
F F F F:
F G9

+ 2 + F F F:
FFG9
H 2 % = F F F:
FFF
6 . + I F F:?F9
F F F:
F 599
F F:
F ?
F F:
FFF59
F:
C
5
H Hepatitis
J Jaundice
B (positive) Blood test

3 !+ '
A . < + + +
O * <
%+%
% F F F F:
F G9

!2 F
F
F
F
F:
FFG9
F:
FFF
/ F F:?F9

* = * F F F:
F 599
F F:
F ?
F F:
FFF59
F:
C
* S<
= F:
F 599 S F:
F ? S F:
FFF59 S F:
C
= F:
CC9
9
3$ . J

7 . 8

! . + * T
3 + % 1

3 !2 30 % %0 1

@
H Hepatitis
J Jaundice
B (positive) Blood test
3 !+ '
A . < + + +
O * <
%+%
% F F F F:
F G9

!2 F
F
F
F
F:
FFG9
F:
FFF
/ F F:?F9

* = * F F F:
F 599
F F:
F ?
F F:
FFF59
F:
C

* 1<2 S+
= :F G9 S :FFG9 S :FFF S :?F9 S :
FFF59 S :
C = F:
G5@C
C
* + +
63 . %
/ / 3 + -
3 '&' % / ! ! 3 . -
3 2 %/ ! ! 3< !-

* Q

?
* + +
* + +
*Q =* + + 32 %
.2 2
* O !Q = F:
?

. U
P ( & )
P ( | ) =
P ( )
P ( & ) = P ( | ) P ( )

G
* + +
P ( & )
P ( | )=
P ( )
P ( & ) = P ( | ) P ( )

* + + 32 + 3 2 !
* O ! = F:
F5
+ 3 < !
5 FF
* ! 3
3! . 3+ 3 2

* + + 32 3 2 !
:
+:% +! + $*(' '(
P 3
3 +I
F
H Hepatitis
J Jaundice
B (positive) Blood test

3 !+ '
A . < + + +
O * <
%+%
F F F F:
F G9
! ! + + F F F:
FFG9
F F F:
FFF
* 1+ Q S< F F:?F9

= * 1+ S< F F F:
F 599

* S< F F:
F ?
F F:
FFF59
= F:
F 599 S F:
F ?
F:
C
F:
F 599 S F:
F ? S F:
FFF59 S F:
C

F:
F@C?
A 3 D !

* , = * * Q

$ .
* , , # =
* * Q VV* #Q ,
V , #1

* , , # = * * CQ * 5Q , C V
VV
A 3 D

$ . % 0 2
! "
# ! 2 2 ! .* Q;
, * $ . Q ;3
3 !
# -
+ 6 . % .2 6 3
3 !
#-
! 2 :::
* + 3 . * S = E9F%FFF
* + 3 2 . 33 !# * S = EF
* + . ! 33 !# * S QS = E
U
P ( SN | M ) P ( M )
P ( M | SN ) =
P ( SN )
'.
* S QS =*S QS *S E* S 9 F:
= F: FFFF EF:
F9 = F:
FFF

9FFF 3
3 !# 2 . ::
:
2 . ; < 3$:
::
5
!
6 *

* ! =S% 6. = $%

6. = 6. =$ 6. =P .

* S! = * S!
%6=
9
! !
!

3 >
!
* Q = *

3 * Q = *
3
+ *% 3

&
3 3
* , = * *
@
!
'2 3
3
* , =* *
*Q =*
*2 = H H* H*

& +
3 2
%+ * 6= % =+ = *6= * =+

C
!

ReadingAbility and ShoeSize are dependent,


P(ReadAbility | ShoeSize ) P(ReadAbility )

but become independent, given Age


P(ReadAbility | ShoeSize, Age ) = P(ReadAbility | Age)

Age

ShoeSize Reading
?
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33
* 6 Q '% = * 6Q'

)2 '% # / . ! .
+ + 36
'B 2 3
* 6% Q ' = * 6Q' * Q'
* Q '%6 = * Q'
G
* + +
60
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! $ % ! * +!
% $

+
36. + + 2 0 %

+ . . ::
6. . W
7" ! + #8
F
1 * +
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= +
,, = / +
,= %/
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, + +
: 3 / . 1 - * "X
+: / ! / - * ,X
!
: 1 ! / /%
. / ! :
* 1"X Q X
+ 2
* "X = E
* ,X = E E
* 1"X Q X = E

6+ 3 2 3
%
!
! . 4 + + %
+ / + # 2 . :
# + 3
, W5:F 3"X >
W :F / :M + 2 * "X = EN
, W:
FF 3,X >
W:
FF / :M + 2 * ,X = EN
, W5:
FF 3 X "X >
FF 3 X
W5: "X >
/ WF 3 1 X :
M+ 2 * 1"X Q X = EN
* + !
, W5:F 3"X >
W :F / :
, W:
FF 3,X >
W:
FF /
, W5:
FF 3 X "X >
FF 3 X
W5: "X >
/ WF 3 1 X

, - (a) (b) (c) Total


: X Y"X
" / %
/ ! :
+4.20 -2.00 -4.00 -1.80
:,X Y 1"X
" / 1 ! %
/ ! / : -2.10 +2.00 0.00 -0.10
:X Y 1"X
" / 1 ! %
/ ! :
-2.10 -2.00 +4.00 -0.10
* + !
, W5:F 3"X >
W :F / :
, W:
FF 3,X >
W:
FF /
, W5:
FF 3 X "X >
/ .
! /%Y FF 3 X
W5: "X >

2 ! / WF 3 1 X
/ ! I
/2 , - + !
: X Y"X
" / %
/ ! :
S5:F 1 :
FF 15:
FF 1 :
?F
:,X Y 1"X
" /! %
/ ! / : 1 :F S :
FF ZF:
FF 1F:F
: X Y 1"X
" /! %
/ ! :
1 :F 1 :
FF S5:
FF 1F:F
5
" ! #

; !
! + # 3 :

" !+ #! + .

3
3
U 3 + + 2
0 J :

9
!
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$ $ %& !
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"!
'T = 0 0 * 0
7 2 . 8% 7 8% !
* T= = E @% * T= = E @% % * T=@ = E@
'MT N = E @ S E
@ S S @ E @
= E @ = : 9

'T = 0 0*0 0
C
* 3'0 !

E( f(X) ) = x f(x) P(x)

' T = 'T
' TS+ = a E(X) + b
' T S P = E(X) + E(Y)
' T P = ???
If XY, then E(X) E(Y) ?
& !
7 / ! 8
3 /
Var(X) = E[ X E(X))2 ]
= E(X2) E(X)2

G
* 3& !

Var( f(X) ) = E[ X E(X))2 ]

& T = & T
& TS+ =a2 Var(X)
& TSP=
Var(X) + Var(Y) + 2 E[ (X-E(X)) (Y-E(Y) ]
If XY, then ... = Var(X) + Var(Y) 5F
& !
Var(X + Y) = Var(X) + Var(Y) + 2 E[X-E(X)) (Y-E(Y)]

& !! 7 32 8
Cov(X,Y) = E[X-E(X)) (Y-E(Y)]

Var(X + Y) = Var(X) + Var(Y) + 2 Cov(X,Y)

3TP% 2 T% P = 0
5
; "2

SD( X ) = Var ( X )

; 2 !
;" T = ;" T
; %
TP% ;" T S P =
SD( X + Y ) = SD( X ) + SD(Y )
2 2

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