Top 16

1 seeds 2 seeds 3 seeds 4 seeds

1. Villanova* 5. North Carolina* 9. Arizona* 13. Virginia

2. Kansas* 6. Florida State 10. Duke 14. West Virginia
3. Baylor 7. Louisville 11. Florida 15. UCLA
4. Gonzaga* 8. Oregon 12. Kentucky 16. Butler

None of the names changed, but Ive adjusted the order slightly to reflect
this weeks results. Most prominently, youll see that Duke has jumped on
line three due to its Wednesday win at Virginia. The Cavaliers fall to line
four as a result. Thanks to wins over North Carolina and Virginia in the
past eight days, you have to include the Blue Devils in any future
discussion of potential No. 1 seeds.

Keep an eye out on Florida, as the Gators will be without center John
Egbunu for the remainder of the season due to an ACL tear. Next week,
UF hosts South Carolina and visits Kentucky in a pair of games that
will help define the SEC race.

With the adjustments I made to seed lines three and four, the resulting
regional assignments for the 16 protected seeds produce a more balanced
bracket. In an ideal bracket, the overall seed numbers of the top four seeds
in each region would total 34. This projection sees the East and South
totals hit that number, with the Midwest at 33 and West at 35.

Top 16 by Region

1. EAST 4. WEST 2. MIDWEST 3. SOUTH

1. Villanova 1. Gonzaga (Salt 1. Kansas

1. Baylor (Tulsa)
(Buffalo) Lake City) (Tulsa)
4. West Virginia 4. Virginia 4. Butler 4. UCLA
(Milwaukee) (Buffalo) (Milwaukee) (Sacramento)
3. Kentucky 3. Duke 3. Arizona (Salt 3. Florida
(Indianapolis) (Greenville) Lake City (Orlando)
2. Louisville 2. Oregon 2. Florida State 2. North Carolina
(Indianapolis) (Sacramento) (Orlando) (Greenville)

So thats 16 of the 45 available slots (removing the 23 champions of likely

one-bid conferences) locked up. Just eight more teams join them as secure
with three weeks and two days to go.
Other Locks

5 seeds 6 seeds

17. Creighton 21. Wisconsin

18. Purdue* 22. South Carolina
19. Cincinnati* 23. Notre Dame
20. Maryland 24. SMU

This group includes the top three Big Ten teams

(Purdue, Wisconsin and Maryland), the third teams out of the Big
East (Creighton) and SEC (South Carolina), and the American Athletic
Conferences top two squads (Cincinnati and SMU). The Bluejays have
been particularly impressive in how theyve rebounded from Maurice
Watsons ACL tear.

After consecutive losses to Northwestern and Michigan, Wisconsin

now ranks below both Purdue and Maryland in the race for a protected
seed.

Near Locks

7 seeds 8 seeds

25. Minnesota 29. Oklahoma State

26. Xavier
27. Saint Mary's
28. Northwestern

With 24 teams set as locks, that leaves just 21 places up for grabs. Five of
those spots are nearly off the board as the teams in this group are inching
closer to safety. On Wednesday, Northwestern had a chance to all but
secure a first-ever NCAA bid, but the Wildcats were unable to follow up
Sundays big win at Wisconsin with one over Maryland back in Evanston.

Melo Trimble wouldnt stop scoring for the Terps, while Scottie Lindseys
continued absence hampered the Cats offense. Later that
night, Minnesota edged Indiana to pick up a fourth-straight win, a
result that also managed to further damage the Hoosiers prospects.

Xavier slipped a bit after losing to Providence without Trevon

Bluiett, out with an ankle injury. Saint Marys simply needs to avoid
picking up multiple bad losses in its final three WCC games,
while Oklahoma State has rocketed to near safety thanks to seven wins
in its last eight.

Bubble In

8 seeds 9 seeds 10 seeds

30. Virginia Tech 33. Iowa State 37. Miami

31. USC 34. Michigan State
32. Dayton 35. VCU*
36. Michigan

Only 16 spots are left for the true bubble teams. The group of eight teams
immediately above the cut line is a true mixed bag. Virginia Tech has
helped its case immensely in the past week by defeating Virginia in
Blacksburg and surviving Pitt on the road 48 hours later.

Miami topped fellow bubble team Georgia Tech on Wednesday, but

the Hurricanes might rue their failure to hold on at Louisville on
Saturday. USC had won five straight until Oregonsnapped that streak
last Saturday, but trips to both UCLA and Arizona loom. Earn a split,
and the Trojans should be set.

Dayton and VCU look like the only two Atlantic 10 at-large hopes, thanks
to Rhode Islands 10-point home loss to Fordham. Iowa
State meets TCU, a squad that sits in the next group, in Ames on
Saturday in yet another vital Big 12 bubble game.

Over in the Big Ten, Michigan State is higher than youd expect
because of a 4-5 record against the Top 50 and an 8-9 mark when extended
to the Top 100. Meanwhile, consecutive wins over the Spartans, Indiana,
and Wisconsin have brought Michigan back to the fold, ever closer to
safety.

Cut Line

Last Four Byes Last Four In First Four Out Next Four Out

38. TCU 42. Clemson 69. Georgia Tech 73. Georgetown

39. Kansas State 43. Syracuse 70. Indiana 74. Illinois State
40. California 44. Marquette 71. Rhode Island 75. Pitt
41. Seton Hall 45. Arkansas 72. Tennessee 76. Wake Forest
While the other Big 12 bubble teams are doing a decent job of
winning, Kansas State has seen its fortunes fade by winning just once
in its last six against Baylor of all teams, on the
road. California could really use a home win over Oregon next
Wednesday to earn some breathing room, while the Seton Hall squad
that defeated the Golden Bears in the Pearl Harbor Invitational followed up
a questionable loss to St. Johns with a helpful win over Creighton.

The last four in are all teetering, however. Clemson jumps back in
following a Tuesday win at Wake Forest. While the Tigers are now 9-10
against the Top 100 with that quartet of victories against the Top 50, theyll
have to improve upon a 4-9 ACC mark to remain.

Syracuse, 8-6 in the same conference, begins a four-game stretch that

will dictate its fate on Sunday with the first of two against Georgia
Tech. Marquette has only defeated DePaul in its last six,
while Arkansas returns after picking up an impressive win at South
Carolina on Wednesday night. The Hogs are now 8-5 against the Top 100
with three Top 50 wins.

One of those victories came against a Tennessee team that falls out of
this projection after being blown out by Kentucky in a classic revenge game
at Rupp Arena. A 13-12 record in games against Division I foes with just a
single Top 50 win probably isnt going to do it.

Fading Indiana, 1-6 in its last seven, missed a golden opportunity in

Minneapolis last night. Georgia Tech is now just 1-3 in games against
Division I opponents since beating Notre Dame, while Rhode Island might
want more than just that Fordham loss back.

Keep an eye on Georgetown, especially if the Hoyas can win at

Creighton on Sunday. Even though the Hoyas are just 14-12 and have a
borderline RPI of 61, they also have three Top 50 wins and chances for
more they visit Seton Hall and host No. 1 overall Villanova, with that
one set as the pairs regular season finale.

Also Considered

Next 10 Out

77. Georgia
78. Texas Tech
79. Providence
80. Ohio State
 Next 10 Out
81. Alabama
82. Utah
83. Nevada
84. Houston
85. Boise State
86. Richmond

This group of 10 teams features teams that either wont go away

(Georgia, thanks to a one-point win Saturday over Tennessee), could
have put themselves in better position (Texas Tech might very well be in
had it defeated Kansas last Saturday, while Utah needed better non-
conference wins), are fading away (Ohio State), or making a late push
(Providence).

Auto Bid Only

11
seeds 12 seeds 13 seeds 14 seeds 15 seeds 16 seeds

46.
47. UT 63. Weber
Middle 51. Akron* 55. Vermont* 59. FGCU*
Arlington* State*
Tenn.*
48. Wichita 52. 60. UNC 64. N.C.
56. Belmont*
State* Monmouth* Asheville* Central*
53. 57. Cal St. 61. 65. Texas
49. UNCW*
Princeton* Bakersfield* Furman* Southern*
54.
50. 62. N.D. 66. New
Colorado 58. Bucknell*
Valparaiso* State* Orleans*
State*
67. Mount
St. Mary's*
68. UC
Davis*

Last night, Monmouth became the first team to guarantee itself at least
an NIT bid, as the Hawks (23-5, 15-2) clinched the top seed in the Metro
Atlantic Athletic Conference Tournament with a 93-75 win over Niagara.
If only it had 2015-16 Monmouths at-large profile.

On that front, Wichita State, tied for the Missouri Valley lead
with Illinois State, might be the best hope for the 23 single-bid
conferences at this point. While the Shockers RPI ranking of 43rd isnt
great and neither is their 1-4 record against the Top 50, advanced metrics
still love them.

Gregg Marshalls team ranked 13th in KenPom and 16th in Sagarin at the
time of writing. If Selection Committee members bring up these metrics in
their discussions, like they did last season when both the Shockers
and Vanderbilt earned bids largely due to non-RPI measures, Wichita
State might just have a shot at sneaking in with a loss in the Arch Madness
final a week before Selection Sunday.

And that day will be here before you know it. The first conference
tournament action of the year takes place one week from Monday.