Methodology
Mainstreet surveyed a random sample of 2,188
British Columbians on February 18-19, 2017
through Chimera IVR. Respondents were screened
to conrm voting eligibility. Landline and Cell lines
were included. Responses were weighed using
demographic information to targets based on the
2011 Census.
The margin of error for survey results is 2.1
percentage points, 19 times out of 20. For Greater
Vancouver specic results, the margin of error is
3.16 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. For
Vancouver Island specic results, the margin of
error is 4.55 percentage points, 19 times out of
20. For Rest of BC results, the margin of error is
3.55 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
About Mainstreet
With 20 years of political experience at all three
levels of government, President and CEO Quito
Maggi is a respected commentator on Canadian
public aairs.
Dierentiated by its large sample sizes, Mainstreet
Research has provided accurate snapshots of
public opinion, having predicted a majority NDP
government in Alberta, a majority Liberal
government in British Columbia and a majority
Liberal government in Ontario. Mainstreet has
been the most accurate polling rm in several by
elections and the most recent Toronto mayoral
election. Most recently, Mainstreet Research was
the only polling rm to correctly predict a Liberal
majority government in the 2015 federal election.
Contact Information
In Ottawa: Quito Maggi, President
quito@mainstreetresearch.ca
In Montreal: David Valentin, Executive Vice
President. david@mainstreetresearch.ca
In Toronto: Dr. Joseph Angolano, Vice President
joseph@mainstreetresearch.ca
Find us online at:
www.mainstreetresearch.ca
twitter.com/MainStResearch
facebook.com/mainstreetresearch
DEADLOCK, UNCERTAINTY AS BC ELECTION NEARS

February 21, 2017 (Ottawa, ON) A new Mainstreet/Postmedia poll nds a deadlock between Christy
Clarks Liberals and John Horgans NDP with almost 1 in 3 British Columbians undecided. The
Mainstreet/Postmedia poll has a margin of error of +/- 2.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

This is an incredibly close race, said Quito Maggi, President of Mainstreet Research. Among decided and
leaning voters, it is a virtual tie in the Greater Vancouver area, it would be impossible to predict what the
result would be with these kinds of numbers. Once again, we are nding the Green Party in competitive
shape. Outside Greater Vancouver the Green Party is scoring 22% with decided & leaning voters - however
Green Party supporters are the most likely to say they will change their minds (48%).

Supporters of the Liberals and NDP are evenly matched in the strength of their support. 63% of Liberal
voters and 62% of NDP voters say they wont be changing their minds before Election Day. The highest
strength of support is among BC Conservatives voters - 68% of them say they wont change their minds. If
the BC Conservatives fail to run a full slate across the province one interesting question will be who these
voters support - or if they even show up to vote at all.

53% of Green Party supporters say the NDP is their second choice - and inverse is true of soft NDP
supporters who say the Green Party would be their second choice. Troublingly for the Liberals they do not
lead as the second choice of either the NDP, Greens or Conservatives.

These numbers have to be somewhat troubling for Christy Clark, they point to limited growth potential -
but they are positive too. For now, the Green Party is doing well across the province, even if they have a
tenuous grasp on those votes, and that helps local Liberal candidates on the ground.

The election campaign hasnt ocially started. What we know right now is that we dont know enough,
Maggi nished.
-30-

For additional information or to arrange an interview, contact:

Quito Maggi, President, quito@mainstreetresearch.ca
David Valentin, Executive Vice-President, (514) 913-5524 - david@mainstreetresearch.ca
Decided & Leaning Voters
Deadlock.
Theres no other way to categorize the current
state of the race in British Columbia. Among
Decided & Leaning Voters the Liberals and NDP
are both tied at 37% with the Greens in a strong
third place at 17% and the BC Conservatives in
fourth place at 10%.
The situation looks much more unstable however
when we look at the broader picture of All Voters
which includes undecided voters - 31% of British
Columbians say they do not know who they would
vote for if an election were held today.
That number is highest at 26% in the Rest of BC
which excludes the Greater Vancouver census
region and Vancouver Island.
Regional numbers point to competitive races in
Vancouvers suburbs where the Liberals have a
slight edge. Its a 1 point lead among all voters for
the Liberals over the NDP (28% to 27%) which
grows to 3 percentage points among decided &
leaning voters (41% to 38%). In both cases the race
is essentially tied as the numbers are within the
margin of error ( 3.16 percentage points).
The Green party is performing best on Vancouver
Island (22% among decided & leaning voters and
16% among all voters) creating the conditions for
the Greens to win additional seats if their vote is
ecient. Certainly, at this level of support we
would expect Green Party Leader Andrew Weaver
would be re-elected. The Greens are now polling
just about 10% higher than the support they
received in the 2013 election.
With so many undecided voters we expect
volatility as the campaign approaches.
One source of ongoing volatility is the state of the
BC Conservative party. Despite the fact they have
no permanent or interim leader the party is still
polling at 10%. For the purposes of this survey we
used Party President Corbin Mitchell as a
placeholder name.
A recent news story in the Dawson Creek Mirror
found a former BC Conservative candidate saying
the party was in total disarray.
However, the party continues to send out new
releases with the latest release, announcing a new
director or policy and communications. Other
news reports appear to indicate the party will run
candidates in at least some ridings.
Among All Voters
Greens the least committed
Among decided voters the deadlock continues -
with both Liberal supporters and NDP supporters
equally likely to say they will not be changing their
minds.
Almost two-thirds of Liberal and NDP supporters
are presently locked-in.
Despite the fact the provincial Conservatives have
no leader, 68% of their supporters say they wont
be changing their vote - though this creates an
interesting conundrum if the provincial
conservatives dont eld candidates in every riding.
In 2013 the BC Conservatives only elded
candidates in 53 ridings out of a potential 85.
On the other end of the spectrum is the Green
Party - despite, or perhaps, because of their
relatively high support, they have the least
committed voters of any of the three parties at
36% with almost half of Green party supporters
saying they may change their mind.
Clearly Andrew Weaver has his work cut out for
him: before he can continue to grow support for
the provincial party he may want to focus on
solidifying and retaining existing supporters.
For the Liberals and NDP there is still room for
growth in building loyalty. The Federal
Conservative party regularly scored close to 80%
on support strength in the federal election which
means for the two major parties there is at least
another 17-18 percentage points worth of voters
that could be solidied even before the election
campaign begins.
Second Choices
With Green Party voters those the most likely to change their
minds, its the NDP who have the most room for growth when
we examine second choice preferences for voters who are
decided but not strong supporters.

51% of Green Party supporters say that the NDP is their

second choice.

Perhaps most disturbingly for the Liberals is that they are not
seeing similar numbers from BC Conservative Supporters.
Among Conservatives the NDP leads in second choice
preference with 37% compared to 30% for the Liberals. 45%
of BC Conservatives are undecided.

This is a voter cohort the Liberals will want to target heavily -

not only because the Conservatives may not eld a full slate
but also because the lack of a leader may continue to atten
overall support for the BC Conservatives.
*The BC Conservatives do not have a permanent, or interim, leader. Party President Corbin Mitchell was used as a placeholder.