RI ea Certo ue Wel Uke oe en Re ag eae Technical Director - Hyder Consulting Middle East Limted Engineering, Environment, Planning aAbstract ‘Several seismic hazard studies for the Arabian Gulf are reviewed and discussed. 7 ‘These studies are shown fo be contrasictery, wih seismic hazard in the Guf Statas ranging fem almast aseismic to high seismic rk. Therefore a new seismic hazard ‘szessment presented ints pape. ‘This assessment uses simple and transparent procedure, in combination with conservative assumptons. The assessment was checked against three independant ] Sie-specc selmi studies and an excalnt correlation is achieved. This suggests ‘hatthe estimate of sssmic hazard is wiable and conservative,1 Purpose Several seismic hazard studies fr the Arabian Gui have bean published, however, their ects are ofan contactor. For example, AlHeddad ota (1008) suggest hat ‘he UAE is almost asetmic, whereas Grunhal el (1998) suggest hat tis an area of igh seismic nse ‘The purpove of tis paper i 10 review some ofthe seismic hazard studies that have ‘een cari out forthe region and to abtain a conservative and reliable estimate of the Seismic hazard forthe Cul Staton 2 Tectonics & Seismicity of the Reglon 24 The Arabian Pate Fig shows that Araban Peninsula appea's o bean ara af ow selomle risk with most ofthe seismic actvay confined tothe boundries ofthe Arabian Pats pa Fig 12 Earthquakes inthe Midale East from 1975 to 1998 (USGS, 2001) ‘Te Arabian Plate is bounded by several major fault systems as shown in Fig 2. The ester boundary i the Dead Sea Transform and the eastem boundary fe Owen Fracture Zone“ ‘ _ a” oF teen) toonucews S— nacre ag moe VD sense Fig2: Selamotectones ofthe Arabian Pate (Johnston, 1998) ‘The Arabian Plata is characterised as a zone of tectonic separation from the ican Plate along the Gulf of Adon and the Red Sea to the south and southwest. THs Separation results in @ zone of ecto colision withthe Eurasian Plate as the Arabian Plate maves nohwards. The most signteant earthquakes In the Avanian Gull are associated with tis tactoniccollion and they occur inthe Zagros Blt and the Makan Subducton, tothe north and eas ofthe Arabian Gal respectively. 22, Zagros Belt ‘The Zogros Belts the colision zone betwoen the Arabian and Eurasian Plates. The main Zagros Thrust i located within ran and runs paral © the eoastine extending 8 distance of aperoxmatey 1500km, fom Turkey inthe north Yo Oman inte south, A Zone of severe crustal deformation known se th Zagros Folded Belt exands approximately 200 km the was ofthe Zaaros Thrust. The whole of this region Is very fsetve eolemealy,22° Matran Subducton ‘The Mairan Subducton isthe region where the Gulf of Oman continues to svbduet under the southern region of tha Eurasian plate. Ths @ region that can produce great earthquakes. However, there is a Yry datinet differance between the westor and faster pats ofthe Malvan.Thero sro subsianial evidence fr large earthquakes In 2 westem porton during the instrumental or hstoreal peods, Furthermore, the faster Makran, whore large eartuakes can happen, i so remote fom fe Arabian ‘Gut mattis very uniKely be the source of appreciable seismic hazard 3 Regional Seismic Hazard Stu ‘The seismic hazard studes that have been publshed forthe Gull States are ofton contradictory, For example, Aladdad of af (1854) suggest thal the UAE is almost _seismi, whereas Grunhal oa (1996) suggest that tis an area of high seismic risk. ‘This section éeserbas regional studies that have been cared out n the Gut States. Most of the Pistoia! solsmity catalogues used in these stucles re based on work ‘ated out by Ambraseys and Meble (1962) 81 Middle East ‘This study by Morimer-Lioyé (1983) appears to be based on a provicus Bulking Research Establishment paper by Evans (1878). The. study considers the seismic hazard inthe Middle Eas, including Cyprss, Egypt and Libya It states that rigorous mmathomatcal eatment of sasmic skis not possible due fo Fagmentary evidence Nevertheless, does present an inccaton of he overall asic sk “The study defines two zones of selemic ak in tems ofthe Modified Macal (Mkt) Intonity, stead of the more usual peak ground accelerations. These zones are detned as Zone A Areas in which an MM intensity of Vl or greater cou occur wihin the fe “pan ofa permanent bing. The retum pared is stated tobe approximatly ‘nly years Zone 8: Areas which could be affected by larger distant eartnquakes or smaller local ‘vents giving se 10M inensies upto V or ‘The two zones are based on the folowing attenuation relationship (Burton, 1978} TP=80+ 1SM-25iyh ++ 400f* Where 1 = intensity (MM) IM = Magnitude (Richer) Focal dept (km) = Distance rom the epicnte (am) h 8 “The resulting seismic rik is shown in Fig 3a. Zones A and 8 correspond approximatly to UBC37 Zones 24 and Zone 1 respectively. However, the seismic risk nthe Gull ‘States appears to be overestmatod for he following veasons 1. The boundary of he Arabian Pats is shown approximataly 200 km westwards of Ist postion (Fig 3b). ts2. The attenuation relatonship does not sufclentl attenuate M7 earhquakes at ‘stances lass than 140 km and MB earthquakes at distances less than 300 km ig), Incaect Plate Boundary ( erimerciows | sear NA aah | «Earthquakes and Seismic Zones »Diserepancy in Pete Boundary Fig 3: Seismic Zones (Mortimer Loyd, 1983) and Plate Boundaries Johnston (1998) lente Distance (en) 1 40 100 000 xf = sw 100% SS A tos SN. NN. = Modi Moral intensity Acceleration (g) 1 70 “00 1000 Fig 4: Comparison of Attonvation Relationships (Evans, 1978, Mortimer Loyd, 1983 ‘and Boor eta, 1997)32. Saul Arabia ‘This study by AL Hadad otal (1994) consiters the seismic hazard throughout most of the Arabian Peninsula. The selsmie source zones defined in tis study ae located ‘mainly on the wostem coast slong the Red Soa and the Gui of Aqaba. There ave no Ssiamie eoures zones defined in eastom Saud Arabia or the other Gulf sate, al of Which are considered to lack any significant seismic acivly. The only source of earthquake acvty Wertiied by Al Haddad ot af (1994) tha coud significantly affect hazard levels in te Gul States shar source Regn. 11m southern Ian for which @ maximum magnitude, Mya, of7 5's asbined, ‘The 475-yerretunpatiod accelerations are shown in Fig ts evident thatthe only signiicant areas of temic hazard are the coastal areas slong the Red Sea, a small ‘rem in north cotral Saud Arsbia,north-atem Saud Area, Kaw an the Iranian hast ofthe Arabian Gu seers peusauane 2 Fig: Seismic Hazard Mop for the Middle East showing io-accoerations (gor {75:yar Rotum Period (Arad etl, 1994) ‘The choice of attenuation relationship used inthis study can be questioned. However, the study hos been pubished in a reputable inieational journal and the principles fmployed appear to be generally sound. Therefor, the hazard dstrbuton may be Considered to be a good Indicaton of the ground roton,athough the acceleration Value are probably anderesimated.8 ® 2 - 6 : e : Acceleration Contours fr Iran (Grunthal tl, 1990) 08 84 Europe, Aca & Middle East This_study was compled_as pat of the Global Seismic Hazard Assessment Programme (GSHAP) by Grunthal et al (1898) trom individual area studies, The solic hazard forthe UAE oblained from GSAHP study is shown in Figure 92. This shows hazard levels that reach almost 0.5g inthe northernmost part of the UAE and That are greater than 0.29 in most ofthe county. The implied lev for Dubai of the order of 0.39. This consttules a major seismic risk (UBCS7 Zone 3). Honever, the published UBCS7 zones speciy the opposte. Doha, Abu Dhabi and Dubai are al peated a Zone 0, which constiules neghibe seismic rik ‘The reason for the high PGA estimate in the GSHAP study Is showm in Figure 8. The Gul States fell outs of tho areas covered by the diffrent sub-projects which constituted the sty. Gruntal etal (1988) explain that, “have the hazard was ‘mapped by simulating the altenvated effect of th solsmic actu. the Zagros province of an” would appear that to affects of the major earthquakes in ran wore ot sufcienty attenuated to obtain reliable estimates of the actual seismic risk inthe UAE. Bommer (20008) states tat, These mapped values can bo confided rejected fas having a vary Weak scintfc basis and bang grossly overconservatve™e:semea — @:t0gmes eae Fig 12: Local Selsmicty of Kawa (Sadek, 2004) 950-75. year year 0.2269 0.1669 0.2009 0.1479 0.1753 0.1289 0.1509 0.1109 0.1259 0.0829 0.1009 00749 0.0753 0.0859 0.0509 00379 Fig 13: Seismic Hazard for Kuvat (Sadek, 2004) ‘The seismic hazard presented in hs study equates to UBCIT Zone 2A inthe southern canta region of Kuwas. However, Fig 12 shows the eartnquake magni in tis Fegion © be lass than, M,of 0. Tis suggest thal the seismic hazard would Be no ‘more than UBCET Zon 4 Caso Study: Site-Specific Seismic Assessments for Dubal 44 Inteduction ‘Three separate ste-specife hazard assessments are presented In tis secton. They wore carred out independently by selsmolegists who used different analysis methodologies and source-zone modeling,42. BurJuman Mall In Dubai seismic design to UBC97 Zone 24 is required for bulings over four storeys However, the proposed extension to the esting Bur Juman centre would increase the height to five storeys, and therefor an asseeement was carted out by Sommer (20000 noe a obtain a relaxation inthe bung regulations fom Zone 2A to Zone 5 Bommer (20000) states thatthe region surrounding Dub is almost aseismic. He also ‘ales thatthe main seismic Macard die ether smal local earthquakes thal re of litle stuctural signiieance orto lage selsmic events In the Zagios region on the Iranian side of the Arabian Gu [A deteeinisic approach was used in this assessment and maximum credible arthquakes at known seismic zones were defved ftom the Tavakol| and Ghar: ‘Ashiiany (1900) study. The earthquake scenarios used were magnitude M=7.0 at 95 fen rom Dubs and magnitude Me7.2 a 160 km from Dubal in the Zagros Folded Bet ‘The M70 in Region 13s the cial design case forthe Arabian Gu typical design spectrum is shown n Fig 15. Bommer (20000) concuded thatthe Zone 2A spectrums Unnecessary conservatve for tho level of seismic hazard at the sie, Ho also ‘ecommended that the UBCS7 Zoe 1 spectum could be safely and confidently ‘opted for selsme design in Dubay 43 Buj Dubai Tower & Mall ‘Two studies wore used forthe selmi design ofthe Bu Dubal project namely, Wood ‘2d irvine (2003) and A-Homoud (2004), Bath stuces used a probabilistic aperosch 0 {ssess the seismic hazard. The selsmisty caaiogue and the source regione used by \iood and vine 2003) are shown in Fig 14. The resulting hazard is discussed lar. ‘an earlier study by A-Homoud (2008) study used a sila selsmity caialogue and ‘Gentes! souree regions to the Abdalla and A-Homoud study (2004) These studios onlan the eror dscussed previous. namely. the use of an unealsicaly large ‘artiquake magetude Inthe Norden Emrates. Consequenty, the study was ected by te consuling engineer, Hyder, for bang unvolabie and proving an overestimate (of thsesigmic hazard ‘revised study was cared out by AHomoud (2004) forthe Dual Mal projet. this Study the maximum earthquake magni, Moax was reduced from 7-0 to 5.5. This ‘eau in a reduction ofthe lame ek fam UBCOT Zone 2A to Zone 1. Fig 16 ‘hows thatthe resuling spectrum compares very wel with the spectra obtained by ‘Bommer (20005) and Wiood and irvine (2003)0 0 q 0 O 0 D 0 } O } J u | Fa Si Gta nd Soe Source Reins br Bibi (Wood & rin, 2009)—-UB09T Zine + Woo & i (203) = Aenod 2004) 6M 7.0.34 9 km Borer, 20088) + 1 Petiod (seconds Fig 15: Comparison between UBCO7 and Dual Se Specie Spectra ‘44 Discussion & Conclusions “The ALHomoud (2008) assessment is detent In that It used an unreasonably high arhiquake in seismic Region VI which led fo an overestimate of he seem sk TS feror was aso present in the Abdalla and AlHomoud study (2008), but was latr ‘rected by Al-Homoud (2004), Consequently, Here are thee relabie studies from ‘which an accurate astinata of slsmic hazatd in Dubal may be estmaled, narmaly, BBommer (20006), Wood and nin (2008) and A-Homoud (2008), ‘These stuces were cared out Independently by experienced selsmologits. They also used ferent selsmic soutce regions and these alow for the sensivly of the fnatsie due fo difrenoes inthe seismio models. Bonne’ (20008) usad determnlste methods and the Boore etal (1963) attenuation relationship, whereas, Wood and vine (2003) and A-Homoud 2004) used probablisic methads and used allenuation Felaionships derived by Abrahamson and Siva (1997), In addon, the AHomoud (2008) used ferent attenuation rlatonships for near-field and fa-fald “The resus of the assessments would bs in doubt f thy were fo be signfeanty affected by diferences nthe source zone modeling, the matyod of analyse andlor sttenustion relationships used, However, the conclusions ftom all ofthe assessments are vory smi. This indicates that thet predeion of seismic hazard may be Vested Iwi a high degree of eondonce. All toe assessments show tral he use of te Usca7 Zone: 24 seleme hazard for Dubei e unnecessary coneersative and they conclude that the Zone 1 spectrum may be used as a safe envelope for seisme desgn in Dubai Pent5 Seismic Hazard Assosement forthe Gulf Statos 5.41 Method for Selsmic Hazard Assessment ‘ful probabitic seismic hazard assossment could bo cared out. However, 2 ‘Smplor ad more transparent procedure iso use the mathod suggested by Bammer ef '21(2000a and 20008), Ths mathod defines a single eortuake design scenario. (rmagnitude and distance) hats compatible wih te selomic azard at ase due othe ‘activi within single sesmic source region. This method was used forthe ‘ssesement ofthe Bur Juman Mal described ere, 52 Solocion of Design Earthquake Scenario Its evident fom the stucies presente inthis papar thatthe main seismic hazard for the Gulf States is rom earthquakes in tho Zagres bat in ran and not rom to few local vents. Fig. 15 snows tat the 475-6ur period hazard s adequately represented by fan earthquake of Me7.0 in source Zone "3 (Zags Fold) defned by Tavakot and GhatorAehtany (1000), The hazaré inthe Gu States is then modelled by eslelating the acoeeraton at various slstances from Zone 13. and then determining, te sppropite o-sesmas. (One exception to the single selsmic source region is Kuwat, for which the acodlerations derived by Sadek (2004) are used as the basis for the estimate of Seton hazard 153 Altenuaton Relatonship and Design Spectra ‘Bommer (20048) states that he attenuation eatonship developed by Boore al al (1987) may be used asa safely conservative option. The selmi spectra derived using this relationship are shown in Fig 16 and with te UBCOT Zone 2A and Zone | spectraSEN O5 hm Soowet sh a ae SEM Oat stm one ta 57156 Sone hosting Fig 18: Comparison betmeen UBCOT and Magnitude M 7.0 Specta| [A comparison of the partnent spectral values Is shown in Table 1. Ths shows an fexceletcorelation btwsen the UBC values and these derved from the magriude M70 earthquake sconarios. ‘Spectrum Period, T() oF 1 1s 20 ‘Spectral Acceleration, 8 (a UBCST Zone 2A 0a] 0.180 [0100 | Ors 7.0.20 km oa | or | ooms | oor {UBC7 Zone 0200 | 080 | 0083 | 0040 1M 7.0.60 km o190 | 08: | ooss | oes Table T Camparison between UBCO7 and Wa Reversion ‘The seismic hazard map ie derived rom Fig 16 bloating the Zane 28, Zone 2A and Zane sc-sttmale at 20 km, 60 km and 105 kn from Region 1 (Zagros Faded Bat) respectively (refer to Fig 17). It's possible to calbrate the M7.0 spectra shown in Fig 4 to the peak acosleration values insta ofthe pue-0.4e parod values, This Would rs2 increase the locaton ofthe lo-sslemals to 25 km, 70 km and 118 kn respectively, from Region 13. Fig 17: UBCS Seismic Hazard Zones forthe Arabian Gulf ‘The seismic hazard for Kuma, derived from the Sadek (2004) suey, shown in Fig 8 Fig 18: UBC97 Seismic Hazard for Kuwat (Served from Sadek, 2005) i54 Dacussion & Coneluslone ‘The following conservative assumptions were made inthe assessment +The maximum credible eathquske in the selmic source zone defned for the region was used fo establish the eartnguake scenario ‘+The special ordinates were calculated using an atlenuaton relationship that accounts forthe nreased ample in ground motons due to reverse faulting ‘arthquakes, suchas those encountered nthe Zagros Bet. +The ste-specle spectra were calculated using the mean pus-one-slandaré evlation value fom the atleruaton rsatonship, which eoresponds to the percent value In adsiton tothe above conservative assumptions, the predicted selmi hazard was checked aganst three Independent ste-speae selsme studies, The check showed ‘an excellent corlaton, which suggest thal, a conservalve and retable estimate of the eiemichazard in tho Arabian Gul hae been achieved, References ‘Abrahamson, N A & Siva, W J, 1997, Empirical Response Spectral Attenuation Relations for Shallow Crustal Earthquakes, Seismological Research Leters 68, 9 a [ALHaddad, M GH, Siig R, AlZad, A, Arfah, A, Neclogly A & Turall, N, 1904, A ‘basis for evaluation of selemic hazard and eclemic design criteria for Saudi Arabia, Earthquake Spectra 10, 231-288 Abdalla, AJ & AHomoud, A S, 2008, Slamlc Hazard Assessment of United Araby Emirates and ts Surroundings, Journal of Earthquake Engineering, 8, NO®, 817-837 |A-Homaud. AS, 2002, Earthquake Hazard Analysis and Dynamic Site Response Evaluation forthe Dosign of the Bur Dubal Tower, A Study prepared for Emaar |A-Homoud, A'S, 2004, Seismie Zonation Analysis and Acceleration Site Specific Response Spectra Study forthe Design ofthe Dubal Mal at Burj Dubal, A Study prepared for Emaar ‘mbraseys, NN & Melle, CP 1962, A History of Persian Earthquakes, Cambro University Press Bommer, J J. Scot, SG & Sarma, S K, 2000a, Hazard-consistent earthquake scenarios, Sol Dynamics & Earthquake Engineering 1, 219231 Bommer, J J. 20008, Selsmie Hazard Assessment, Bur Juman Expansion Project, Dual, spot prepared for Bur Happola Bore, D M, Joyner, W , & Fumal, TE, 1997, Equations for estimating horizontal response spectra and peak acceleration from western North. American tarthquakest 8 summary of recent work, Se'smelogical Research Lote 68, 123- 18Burton, P W, 1978, The IGS File of Seismic Activity and its use for Hazard ‘Assessment. Natural Envconment Research Counc, Intute of Geological Sciences, Seismological Buln No.8 Evans, PL, 1878, Earthquake Risk inthe Arabian Peninsula, Not N 40178, Buling Research Establishment Department of Ervronmont Grunthal 6, Bost, C, Salami S, Mayer-Rosa, D & Giz, D, 1099, Compilation of the GSHAP regional seismic hazard for Europs, africa and the Middle East, ‘Annal di Geofisica 42(6), 1215-1224 Johnston, P R, 1998, Tectonic Map of Saud Arabia and Adjacent Areas, Tochricl Report USGS-TR:96.3 (IR), Minty of Potrolaum and Mineral Resources, Sa Arabia, MorimerLioyd, J D, 1989, Earthquakes and Seismic Zones in the Midle East, Bldng Research Establishment, Department of Envonment “Tavakol, B & Ghotary-Ashtany M, 1869, Seismic Hazard Assessment of ran, Arnal 4 Gooteica, 426), 1013-1024 USGS, 2001, Seismicity ofthe Middle East 1975-1998, USGS Natonal Earthquake Invormaton Center, Avalable kom hip usgs gov, [Accessed 9 Ap 2002 \Viood, J, & Inne, HM, 2008, Earthquake Response Spectra for the Design of Tall ‘Bulldings in Dubal, Stuctual Mecnanies & Dynamics, Report propared for Emaar Properties Salok, A W, 2004, Seismic Map for the State of Kuwalt, Emirates Journal for Engineering Research, 8, No.2, 5368 [UBC97, 1997, Uniform Building Code ntrational Conference of Building Officials