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Future Vision of Education: Futuring Techniques

Thomas Hamlin
EDU505: Future of Education
Prof. Rebecca Waters
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Future Vision of Education: Futuring Techniques

Futuring Techniques

Per Sobrero (2004) Futuring is an anticipatory decision-making process that leads to

planning and program development. Educational establishments could use this technique to

ensure that they are providing students with an education that will prepare them for the world

and work force that they will soon be entering. Education has fallen behind many other

industries that have embraced technology and forged ahead in a time that is driven by innovation.

By using futuring techniques like scenarios and scanning, educators can plan to integrate new

and more efficient methods of teaching. This approach will keep schools ahead the curve as

opposed to perpetually trying to catch up. While the use of scenarios and scanning possess

amazing potential, they also come with their own set of pitfalls. This paper will discuss the

implementation of scanning and scenarios by highlighting some of the benefits of their use, and

areas of potential concern.

Scenarios

The use of scenarios in futuring is an extremely valuable technique. Mietzner and Reger

(2005) describe scenarios as a tool that managers can use to better prepare for future changes and

improve real time decision making. Mietzner, et al, (2005) discuss the history of scenarios. The

US military first implemented this technique after World War II to improve planning and

intelligence preparation of the battlefield. This technique quickly gained credibility as many

large corporations like RAND and Shell began using it to improve their business model.

Mietzner, et al, (2005) say Scenarios, as a prime technique for future studies, have long been

used by government planners, corporate managers and military analysts as powerful tools to aid
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in decision making in the face of uncertainty (p. 221). This quote outlines the diverse range to

which scenarios can be applied. Education is certainly another appropriate candidate for futuring

using scenarios. While there are many uses for scenarios, there are some pitfalls that

practitioners need to be aware of. The following table outlines the advantages and

disadvantages of using scenarios:

Advantage
Managers can prepare for a potential
future.
Organizations are aware that things
will not always be as they are now.
Scenarios can help mold the ideal
future by narrowing vision and concentrating
effort.
Organizations will not have to play
catch-up; they will be on the cutting edge.
Make decisions in the present that will
set up success in the future.
Disadvantage
The scenario envisioned may be way
off base.
There are many external factors that
one cannot hope to control.
Practitioners may become fixated on
one possible scenario and ignore others.
Using scenarios requires a lot of time
and expertise.
Scenarios can lead to wishful thinking.

If practitioners are aware of the disadvantages of using scenarios and take necessary steps

to mitigate those risks, this technique can be used very effectively to usher an organization into

the future.

Scanning

Sobrero (2005) says that scanning is the first step in futuring. In the piece Six Wolds of

Tomorrow, Clardy (2011) uses this technique to develop different Visions of the future that

are typically presented to popular culture as narrative stories in literature, cinema, religion, and

journalism (p. 38). This piece is a shining example of how scanning can be used to develop

scenarios in futuring. The process of scanning involves collecting data that is relevant to the

organization and can help guide projections for the future. This data needs to be organized in a

way that makes it usable so that researchers can answer the so what questions. The process of

scanning should include both observations and research from local data bases for the best results.
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Scanning has great potential for data collection and developing a future scenario. However, it

does create potential challenges for researchers in that it is very time consuming and requires

continued monitoring to maintain current data on the environment being studied. With these

factors being considered, scanning is an essential tool in all futuring practices.

Conclusion

Futuring is a practice that has been used for decades by many successful companies and

organizations. The use of scenarios and scanning are two extremely effective tools in the

futuring process. Scenarios provide a vision for a probable future and scanning helps identify

which circumstances and events might lead to that probable future. While these tools have many

outstanding advantages, they both come with their own sets of disadvantages that must be

identified and mitigated by practitioners.

References

Clardy, A. (2011). Six worlds of tomorrow: representing the future to popular culture. Wolrd

Future Review. 3(2), 37-38.

Mietzner, D. and Reger, G. (2005). Advantages and disadvantages of scenario approaches for

strategic foresight. Int. J. Technology Intelligence and Planning. 1(2), 220239.

Sobrero, P.M. (2004). The steps for futuring. Journal of Extention. 42(3).