Καιρίδης, Δ. (2014) ΕθνικισμόςκαιΕθνοτικέςΣυγκρούσεις

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ISBN: ???-???-??-????-?
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: 210 3833434, F: 210 3832294
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Peace and Conflict, A Global Survey of Armed Conflicts,
Self-Determination Movements, and Democracy. Center for
International Development and Conflict Management. Col-
lege Park: University of Maryland.
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Gurr, T. R., Marshall, M. G. & Khosla, D. (2001) Peace and

Conflict, A Global Survey of Armed Conflicts, Self-Determi-
nation Movements, and Democracy. Center for International
Development and Conflict Management. College Park: Uni-
versity of Maryland.
84
,
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,
(Collier and Sambanis, 2002: 5). 40% -
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1999; Berdal and Malone, 2000).
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nation Movements, and Democracy. Center for Internation-
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University of Maryland.
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1990, , ,
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.
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94
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Laitin, 1996: 715). , ,

, -
(Dawson, 2012).

nation Movements, and Democracy. Center for International
95
Development and Conflict Management. College Park: Uni-

versity of Maryland.
, , -
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96
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(Kalyvas, 2007a: 420). -
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, -
. -
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, -
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97
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98
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, , ,
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(, 1981: 451-452).

. -
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(Woodward, 1995: 124-125). , -
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(, 2012: 347-410).
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101
-
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and Kocher, 2007 2007a), -
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, ,
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(Balcells, 2010).
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. -
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102
(Woodrow Wilson)
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.
- -
1991,
.
, -
-
. Donald Horowitz Ethnic
Groups in Conflict, 1985,
(Horowitz, 1985),
-
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, -
, .
, Horowitz
(essentialist) -
,
-

- .
Horowitz
-
. :
103
) (essentialism),
) (instrumentalism),
) (constructivism),
) (institutionalism),
) (realism).

, -
.
, -
, -
-
1950
1960 (Geertz, 1963; Shils 1957). -
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, . -
, , -

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1950
(Budding, 1998).
Connor,
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(Connor,
1994). , 1990 -
-
104

, -
, Robert Kaplan (1994).

-
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, Ivo Banac -

(Banac, 1984/1991: 15),
1991 ,
, , -
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,
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, (Gagnon,
2004: 31-51). -
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. ,
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,
(Glenny, 1992).
105
, -
Roger Petersen Under-
standing Ethnic Violence (Petersen, 2002), ,
Horowitz, . ,
Petersen -
, -
(Petersen,
2002: 1). Petersen :
, -
, status
, , -
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:
, -

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;
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/
instrumentalism. ,
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( -
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106
,
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(
) , , (Bates, 1974;
Chandra, 2004; Hechter, 1986; Rabushka and Shepsle 1972).
, -
-

,
. ,
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. -
, 1987, -
, -
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, , (Thomas, 1999). -
, -

-
(Gagnon, 2004).
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107
, -
(Ustase) -
(Ante Pavelic) -
, -
. -
,
, , -
.
-
-
(Glenny, 1992; Gagnon, 2004
2010).
, ,

,
, -
, , -
,
(Fearon and Laitin, 2000);
-
. -
(Murshed, 2010).
, , -
, -
, , -

(Varoufakis, 2008). -
-
James Fearon David Laitin -
Stanford . Fearon -

108

, (Fearon,
1994). , -
-
, . (Fearon and Laitin,
1996). -
, ,
, -
.
-
.
2003
Ethnicity,
Insurgency and Civil War,
-
,
, -
, -
,

.
,
Alliance Formation in Civil War (Christia, 2012),
-
-

.
,

109
,
, .
, -
, (Christia,
2008), -

, -
.
.
-
, ,
. -
Paul
Collier Anke Hoeffler, -

. -
-
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- . -
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.

, -
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-

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-
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110
, Collier
Hoeffler
. ,
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-
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(Collier and Hoeffler, 2004).
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Collier Hoeffler -
. ,
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(Sambanis, 2001). -
-
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(case study)
(Sambanis, 2004).
,
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, , ,

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111
.
-
, .
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, -
, -
.

via media -
. Kanchan Chandra,

. ,

, -
,
, -
-
.
-
,
(Chandra, 2001: 7).
,
, -
.
,
-
. -
-
112
. -
-

(path dependency), -
(master narratives),
-
,
, -
.
, -

1960 1878
(Pollis, 1973). , -

(Kitromilides, 1977 1979). , -
1991

, ,
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1990,

. , -
113
. -
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.

. -

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, -
,
, ,
.
, , -
, ,

(master narratives) . ,
-

, 6% -
,
1950
1995 (Varshney, 1997).
, -
,
, -
Gary King, Robert Keohane Sidney Verba
Designing Social Inquiry (1994).
-
114
-
.

(selection bias), , ,

.

, -

. -
-
.

Arend Lijphart, -
(consociationalism),
-
(Lijphart, 1969 1977).
,
-

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-

. , -
(ethnic quotas) -

, ,
-
,
(Horowitz, 2002: 20-23).
115
-

.

(centripitalism), -
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Horowitz
(1999). -
: -
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,
1974 -
.
, ,
,

, -

,
(Gagnon, 2004:
52-86).
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116
. , 1980 -
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-
. , -
-
, , -

(Woodward, 1995: 47-81).
, -
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(Holbrooke, 1998). -
1995, -
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(Bieber, 2003). , -
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, -
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, ,
(Chandler, 1999). , -
-
, , 1989
(Sebek, 2013).
.

, -
, -
-

117

,

(Kitromilides, 1977 1979, ,
1981). , -
1931,
, ,
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(, 2012: 307-318).
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, -
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-
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,
118
1943. , , -
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.

1959

,

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(, 1998).
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119
, -
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Horowitz : -
, -
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, -
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. 1963 -

, -
(Markides, 2000). ,
1968 1974,
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(-
, 1990, . 3: 203-206). -
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,
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. -
, ,
, -
, ,
1963/64. -
120
,
,
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2004,

(Constantinou, 2014, Hannay, 2005, , 2007).
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-
, 1977 -
-
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.
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. -
, -
-
; , ,
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-
, -
-
; Lijphart ,
1977, -

(Lijphart, 2001).
121
-
, , ,
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-
-
(Posner, 2005).
-

, -
. Barry Posen
1993, -
- -
(Posen, 1993). , Posen -
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. -

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(Posen, 1993).
O Posen
. -
122
. -

,
(Christia, 2012).
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.
,
1940,
, -
(Kalyvas, 2006). , ,
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.
, -

, -
. ,
:
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.
, ,
,

. , -
123
, -
. , Monica Toft

, -
(Toft, 2003). -
-
-
.
,
-
-
. -

1963/1964 -
1974, .
, Fearon -
Posen -
-
, , -
(Fearon, 1994).
Posen Fearon
-
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, .
, ,
.

1992, -
.
,

.
124
,
-
. -
-
. , -

, : -
(Kalyvas and Balcells, 2010: 415).
, , ,
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,
(Buzan and Little, 2001).
-
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(Mylonas, 2012).
, , (
) -
.
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-
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, . -
. , 2004 -
-
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125
, -
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. -
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, -
. -
-
(Budding, 1998: 81-121).

:
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1980. , -
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, -

(Cohen, 2001).
126
-
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.
a priori , -
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-
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2/3
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, .

; -
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127
, , -

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.

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.

128
(Varshney, 2009: 12).

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Collier Hoeffler -
:
.

. -
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-
: -
, . ,
Brubaker Laitin
-
(Brubaker and Laitin, 1998).
,
-
-
129
, ,
,
-
,
, , ,
(conventional, irregular
or symmetrical nonconventional war, Kalyvas and Balcells,
2010) , -
(Kalyvas and Kocher, 2007).
, -
, -
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,

. , ,

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60

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130
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-
(Sambanis, 2004)
, ,
,
(Sambanis, 2001).

: -
,

, , -
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,
131
.
.
,
.
, ,
, Roger Petersen
(2002), -
, -
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,
, . ,
.
-
, . -
, -
()
() . , -
, -
, -
,
. ,

132
-
.
-,
- (micro
foundations) (Kalyvas, 2008),

,
-
, -
-
.

. -
, -
, , , -
, -
. -
, -
-
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.
, -
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.

. ,

133
134
(discourse) ,

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;
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:
;
.
. -

. , -
, ,
1990.

- . , -
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, -
-
.
()-
; , ,
;
135
. -
-
, -
,
.

, -
, -
.
.
(
international security studies
) -
, , -

,

.
, ,
.
,
,
, , . , -
,
- -
, , -

(Buzan and Hansen, 2009).
,
, -
136
- ,

-
,
-
. -
-
, -
, ,
, ,
1960, -
-
, ,
-
1973 (Williams 2008).
, -
-
,

-
. -
, , -
, -
, -
-
.
1973, -
, -
,
,
1980 -
137

. ,

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, -
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,
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.
, ,
1989
1991.
, -
. -

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: -
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, - -
- , , . -
138
,
, ,
, , ...
-
-
-

, , , ,
, -
, -
, ,
... (Economides, 2003)
.

. , -
, -

(Avgita, 2007).

19

. , -
(Todorova, 1997:
27). , -
, -
-
, .
, , ,
,
139

. -
,
-
,
, -
(Stavrianos, 2000: 215).
1912-1913 -

1914 , -
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,
(Roucek, 1935). , , -
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1918
, -
, -
. -
,
,
, -
-
(Judt, 2012: 129-164)
, -, ,
, -

. -
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, -
140
-
-.
-
. ,
, 1989,
.

, -
(

). -

, -
-.

,
, ,
1991. ,
, -
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1918, , .

, -
(Todorova, 1997: 19).
, -
-
. -
,
,
(Todorova, 1997: 16-17).
141
,
-
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.
, ,
1827 -
1999,
,
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-
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:
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, ,
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- -
(Kavalski, 2005).
. -
-
-
. -
, -
, -
. -
142
- -
,
, -
(Bugajski, 2000).
, -

( , 2010), , -
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, -
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, , . -
-
-
-
. 1991
1990, -
(1991),
( 1991 1995) , , -
( 1992 1995), -
(1998-1999) , ,
(2001).
-
, -
143
, -
, -
1995 , , -
1999 (Keridis
and Pfaltzgraff, 2000).

2001 , -
, .
, -
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, . , ,
,
1974,
,

.
, ,
, . -
-
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. -
, , ,
, -
. , ,
, 2010,
2013. , , -

2001, , -
144
, , , -
(Oktem, 2011).
-
, ,
, -
(IISS, 2005). , ,
-
-
(The Economist, Poland: A Golden Opportunity, 2014).
, -
, -
2007, -

, -
(Reports on Progress in Bulgaria and Romania, EU
Commission, 2014).

1990
, -
, -

, , , -
, , -
, , -
... -
, , -
de facto
de jure .
-
,
.
145
, 18
,

1963, -
. , 2015, 20
,
, ,
, -
-
,
(Sebek, 2013).
, -
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(Krastev, 2011).
, , -
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,
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146
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;
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147
, 1815.
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(Stavrianos, 2000).
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156
Wars, 1993: 9). , , , -

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Monthly, Robert D. Kaplan. 1993 Kaplan
:
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Rebecca West,
Black Lamb and Gray
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1990
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Samuel Huntington. -
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1997: 175-176; Mazower, 2002; Glenny, 2012). ,

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: 1813 24 -
, 1878 120, -
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vic),
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214
27 1991 -
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, , , -
.
, -
, 1989.
,
. -
-
.
, -
, , , -
-
. ,

, -
, .
216

, , -
,

,

-
. , -
-
,
, -
.
-
, -
, ,
, , ,
,
.

.
-
, , -
.
,
, -

,
(Tsygankov,
2001; Surovell, 2012). , ,
,
,
1949, . ,
217
-
,
. -

, ..
, - ,
-
, , , -
,
.
,
-
-

.
, ,

-
,
,
, -

, , -

-
(Stewart and Knaus, 2012).
, ,
2002, .
-
, ,

218
, .

1995
..., 1999 .

, -

,
-
, -
, , , ,
, -
.
, , -
-
, ... .

1999 -
(, , , , , -
...). , ,
(Joschka Fisher), -
-,
-
1960,
.
-
-
-
, -
, , ,
-, (, 2008:
85-93).
219
...,

, ,
, , 1972 , -
-

. , -
,
, (George
Bush), -
, ,

, , ...
(Burg and Shoup, 1999: 400-404)
,
2003.
-
2001 -

1990, .
(Donald Rumsfeld)
(Madeleine Albright).
, -
, -
(George W. Bush) -
-
...,
.
-

2002. 58% -
, 29 50 (-
220
),
.
, , -
, -
, -
, , -
, -
-
- - ( -
) .
-
( 1974
, , )
, ,
,
,
. -
,
, , , -
.
, -
-
.
,
.
. , 1918-1991
-
, -
. -

221
-
, , , ,
-.

, -
.
,
, -
19 , -
-
. , -
, -
-
, ,
, .
, ,

, , -
, -

.
, - ,

(Rusinow, 2003).
Vuk Karadzic
-

Josip Strossmayer (Rohrbacher, 2001). -
, -
1867,
-
222
(Otto von Bismarck), .

O -

-
(Banac, 1984/1991: 70-114).
,
- -
. ,
,
( -
)
, -
,
-
-
.
-
,
.
-
. , -
,
, , -
, -
, -
(MacKenzie,
1994), , , -
,
-, 1914,
-
(MacMillan, 2013).
223
-
. , -
,
14 (Woodrow
Wilson), -
10
11.
,

, -
, -
.
, -
-
(Nikola Pasic) , ,
, .

-
. -
,
.
-
, .
-
, , , -
,
,
- , -
- , , -
, -
. ,
224
-
-
-
,
, -
,

(Vickers, 1998).
,
.
, ,

,
.
, -
, ,
-
,
.
. , -
-
. 28 1921 -
,

. -
-
.
,
(Stjepan Radic), 1928, -

.
225
1929
,
. , -
, -
, -

, .
(Djokic, 2003).
,
-. -

-
, -
1991 (Cipek, 2003).
, 1934 (-
-) (IMRO),
(Ustase),
.
1939, -
,
-
,
-
,
,
, , ,
.

1940 ,
. -
226
,

,
1941. , -
, , ,
,
.
( -
) . -
, , -
-, , -

. -
, -
- -
.
, -
. -
, -
,
, -
, . ,
, , -
, -

,
,
1945,
.
, -
, ,
227
-, , -

, , ,
. ,
,

1920 12,4%,

, -. ,
, ,
-
, , -
, , -
, , .
, , ,

. ,
,
-
,
-
, , -
. ,

-

. ,
, ,
,
- -
(Draza Mihailovic),

228
(Lampe, 1996:
229-259). , , ,
-
-
.
1948
-
.
,
, -
, -
-
. ,
,
-
. ,
, , -
.
-

(Djilas, 1963 and 1981).
-
,
-
. -

,
. -

, , ,
.
229
-
,
, -
. ,

, , , -
, -
. ,
-
1950 1960.
-
-
-
.
,

(Budding, 1998: 23). -
, -
. 1950

,

-
-
-
(Pesic, 2000:20).
-
,
-
, , , -
230
. -
, -
-
-
.
, ,
,
1971,
, -

(Kofos, 1993).
-
-
, -
. , -
, , ,
.
, , -
,

.
, -

. , , -
.
, ,
, -
(Budding, 1998: 248-251).
1960 -
.

231
-
,

,

. , -
-
-
-
,
-
(Mikhail Gorbachev).
-
-
. 1966
-
, (Aleksandar
Rankovic).
.
-
. -

.
-

(Latinka Perovic),
1968 1972 (Glenny, 1999: 583-593).
-
. , -

232
, ,
1972 (West, 1994: 289-317).
-

(Perovic, 2000: 109-122).
, , ,
-
1960 -
. -
,
,

. ,
,
. -
, -
, -
1980, ,
.
, 1980.

. , ,
, -
-
-

.

,
(Djilas, 1995).
233
, , -
. .
-
, , , -
-
1970,
,
, -
.
-
-
. . ,
.
1972 -
, -
,
, ,
, .
,
, ,

.
1974, -
,
-
, ,
.
1974 , -
, -

.
234
, , -
(Dimitrijevic, 2000).
-
.
-
,
,
1968. , ,
-
-
,
. ,
,
: , -
.
1974 , -
, .
, -
, -

. ,
-
, -
, , -
. -
-

.
,
. , , -
235
- -
. ,
,
-
. ,
-
, -
(Kanin, 2010: 554-555). , -

.
1970
-
. -
, -

,
, -

1973. ,

(Woodward, 1995: 47-48).
1979
, (Paul Volker), -
11% 21% (!), -
,
, , -
,
. -
.
236
, , -
,
, -

.

,
.
, ,
,
-
. -
-
.
,

. -
, -

, , ,
1980 -

(Nicolae Ceausescu). -
-
. , -
. -
, -
, , -
,
, -
. -

237

. ,
1980.
35 ,
, , -
, .
, 1980, -
122 .
-
, -

.
-
1974
, -
-
. , , ,
, -
, -
.
-

, ,

(Woodward, 1995: 83-88).
1980 ,
-
. 1981
, , , -
238
, -
-
, , -
-
(Weller, 2009: 28-31).

, -

.

1960 -
, -
. , ,
-
, -
, -
, , -
.
, -
, -

.

1981, , -
-
. ,
, -

, -

. -
239
, -
, -
-
,
,
-
, .
-
, -
,
, ,
. ,
1960, -
(, , )
, , -
-,
-
(, , -, ).
1983 -
,

1966. -
, -
(Judah,
1997: 157).

, -
. -

-
240
, . -
-
,
,
.
, , ,
, -
- -
, -
1970, .

, -
,
-
. 1389
.. -
, -
-
, ,
.
, - ,
, -
-
, -
. -
,
.
, -
, , ,
, -
241

. -
, , -
, ... . -
,
,
,
, -
, -
, , .
, . -
, -
,
, -
.
,
, -
.
.
,
, -
.
. -
:
.

-
.
, -

242
, ,
(Woodward, 1995: 93-101).
, ,
-, , -
, , -
, -

.
, , -
. , ,
,
, -
, ,
,
,
.
:
,
, -
-

,
-
,
. -

1980
-

243
- 2010,
, , -
.

. -

-
. ,
(the Washington consensus) -
,

-
, -
.
1980, -
,

, -
-
(Woodward, 1995: 47-81).
,
1980, -
1989 ,
,
(Ante Markovic). ,
, ,
, -
,
. -
,
244

, -
.
, . -
1989 -
, -
-
. , -

(Tadeusz Mazowiecki) ,
. 9 -
1989 ,

. -
1989, -
,
(Siani-
Davies, 2005).
-
. , -
, -
,
, -
-
, ,
, -
, ,
- -
, , ,
, - (Leszek
Balcerowicz) (Zimmerman, 1995).
245

, -
-
. , -
, -
, . -

, (Edvar Kardelj),
.

. -
-
, -
, -
.
, ( -
,
, .
3 : 12), -
(Vuckovic, 1998). ,
1953 (Milovan Djilas) -

(Djilas, 1953/1957). , 1989, -
,
.
.

. -
, , , -

. 1984
246
. ,

1972 (Vladisavljevi, 2004). -
-
(Ivan Stambolic), -
-
.
Technogas -
, Beobanka, -
,
-
(Djilas, 1993).

, ,
.
, -
(Thomas, 1999: 47-48).
, -
, -
(Doder and Branson,
1999: 15-62).

-
-
. , -
,
-
. -
,
,
, -
247

-
(Zimmerman, 1995: 4). ,
, -

, -
,
.
-
,
-
, , ,
. , -
-
. , , -
, (Doder and
Branson, 1999: 47-51).
1987 , ,
2000,
, , .
1984 -
,
. -
, ,
,
1986.
-
. ,
, -
, , -
(Budding,
248
1998: 181-206). ,
-
,

(Mihailovic and Krestic, 1995:
128). ,
, ,
, , , -
. , -

, .
, -
,
.
. ,
,
,
, -
. 1987
, -
-
- . -
-
, -
(Silber and Little, 1997: 37-47).
-
, -
. -
, -

. , -
249
-
, -
.
, , -
-
.
,
,
-
, -
.
,
,
,
.
-
(Sell, 1999:
22). , -
. -
, , ,
.
.
,
-
(Mertus, 1999). ,

: , ,
. ,
-
.

250
-
, -
(Glenny, 1992: 33).

-
, -
.

. .
, ,
, , -
, -
, -
, -
-
.

. -
, , -

. -
, -
, -
, ,
.

-
.
.
251
, -
-
-
. , -
, ,
-
,
(RTS),
, (Glenny,
1992: 44; Nenadovic, 2000). -
, -
,
.
- -
-

, -
,
. -
-
, -
.
- -
,
,
, -

. , , -
, -
-
, , -
(Thomas, 1999: 44-51).
252
-
,
(Ramet, 2002: 562). 1989
, -
.
-

, -
. ,
1999, -
. -
, ,
, -
-
, ,
(Vickers, 1998: 259-269).
-
-
, ,
. -
-
, -
(Kanin, 2010: 554-555).

. -
,
-
, -
.
1980

, -
253
. -
-
-
-
-
(Velikonja, 2003).
, -

.
, -

, .
,
-
, . , -

,
. , , , -

, -
-,

, -
, ,
-
(Pavlowitch, 2002: 199-200; Sell, 1999: 24; Ramet, 1992:
239-242).
-
. -
, -
, - ,
254
.
,
, , , -
, -
.
-
, -
.

1990 14 -
, -
.
, -
,
-
, ,
,
(Ramet, 1992: 246-247).
,
, -
. , -
, -
, ,
, , -
, , , -
1991. ,
, ,
.
, - -
18% -
.
255

-, .
-
1990
. , , -
. ,
-
, (/HDZ).
, , -
, ,
,
2/3 ,
42% -
.
, 35%, -
( ) 15,3%
1,6%. -
-

. , -
55 80
25.
-
(Ramet, 2002:
561). ,
, -
. -

(Tanner, 1997: 221-240).

256
-
.
. ,
.
, , .
, -
-.
-
-
.
. -
(Uzelak, 1997). -
,
-
.

, -
, -

. -
,

,
(Gagnon, 2004: 131-177).
-
. , -
.

.
, -
, , .
257
-
, ,
,
-. , ,
,
1977, , ,
1978, -
-
, -
. , ,
-
.
1990
. -

65,3% .

. ,
- -
.
(Fikret Abdic),
Velika Kladusa -
(Burg and Shoup, 1999: 55).

, -
, -
Agrokomerc, . , ,
-
-
.
-
. , -
258
, ,
(Alija Izetbegovic),
,
.
--
, -

-. , -
,
-
.

.

1991,
, .
.

.
,

- .
-
,
, -
.
, ,
, -
, , -
, , (Trbovich,
2008: 282-292).
259
,
-
,
. ,
, -
. -
: -
.
,
, . ,
. -
, -
(Glenny, 1992: 87). , -
. -
, -
,
, -
,
.
,
.

. -
, , , -
-
-
.
,
. ,
-
.
. (a phoney war)
260
-
-
, -
,
(Silber and Little, 1997: 154-168). , -
-
. -
-
: -

,
19 .
.
1991, -
, , ,
,
,
-
. ,

,
-
, ,
, -
. , -
-
(Glenny, 1992:
31-61). ,

.
(Gagnon, 2004: 87-130).
261
. -
-
,
(Cohen, 2001: 97-140).
,
-
, ,
-
- (Glenny, 1992: 77).
-
, (Jovan Raskovic),
.
, -
(Milan Babic), , -
.
,

.
,
,
.
, -

. ,
-
, -
(Sell, 1999: 24-25). ,
.
, ,
, -
-
1918 .
262
, , -
-
.
,
.
,

.
,
, -
. -

.
-
. , , -
-
,
, -
, . ,
.
, (James Baker),

(Danner, 1997). , -
-
(Saddam Hussein),
, -
: -
-
, 1991 (Hutchings, 1997; Gow, 1997).
, , -
,
263
. -

,
, -
, -
, -
-
.
, ,
,
, ,
,

, -
-
.
, -
, -
(Silber and Little, 1997: 197-199;
, 1993).
1992 ,
. -
, , . ,
- -
.
-
.
, , -
-
, , , -
-
264
, -
,
.
-
-, -
,
. , -
-

1991, -
, -
. ,
(Kiro Gligorov) ,
- -

(Silber and Little, 1997 :148).
,
. ,
. , , -
-
, -
, (4 -
/Badinter), -

-
. , -
. , -

,
. -
, ,
.
265
, -
1992,
:
64%. -
-
, -
1992,
. , ,
(Burg and Shoup, 1999:117-120).
-
1992 . -

. -

, 1995 (Kalyvas and Balcells,
2010: 419). ,
(U.S.
Central Intelligence Agency, 2002: xii-xv). -

. ,
, -
, -
. -
, , -
-
.
1984
-
. ,
Velika Kladusa
, , -
.
266
,

(Ullmann, 1996; Bert, 1997).
-
-
, 1994. -
, -
, . -
.
-
,
, -
(Bass, 2003). , -
. ,
1994 -
,
.
,

. ,
(Palairet,
2001). -
, -
. , -
(Andreas, 2010).
,
,
1996. -
, -
... -
(Rohde, 2012). -
267
-

,
, (Boris Yeltsin) -
.

- . -

,
.
,
,
:
, ,
,
(Silber and Little, 1997:345-381).
,
70%
49% ,
. -
, -
- ,
,
- -
.
, -
,
, , -
, , -
(Richard
Holbrooke), ,
(Silber 1996; Holbrooke, 1998).
268
,
- -
-
, ,
. ,
, ,
-
, -
,
,
, (Daalder and
Froman, 1999).
, -
, ,

. , , -

, -
, .

.
-
. , ,
,
, 1999.
. ;
-
. , -
-
269
, ,
, ,
(Ramet, 2002). -
, -
,
.
,
.
-

.
.
, -
, ... , , ,
, -
, .
. -
, , ,
-
. ,
.

.
, , -
-
. , -
,
80%. 1990, 15%

(Gagnon, 2004: 135). , -
-
270
-
, ,
.
, -
, -
.
(grievance) -
(Gagnon, 2004: 34-43). ,
,
:
-
- , -
- , ,
. , -
(Woodward, 1995:
129). -

-
, -
.
,

- . , -
,

, -
, , ,
... -
271
, - ,
-
.
, -

.

1990, -
,
. ,
68% . , -
42% , , -
34% -
.

, .
exit polls , -
,
, -
.
-
. ,
-
, -
, ,
, -
,
(Gagnon, 2004: 47).
,
.
, (/
272
SDS), 13,5% .
, ,
,
, -
.
-
. , -
,
, -
-
. ,
- -
25%,

, -

.
-
-
, , -
. -
:
. -
1980 -
-
.
. -
-
-
, -
.
273

,
-
, -
, .
,
-

, -
-
(Woodward, 1995: 47-81).
, -
,
, .
, -
,
. , -

50-85%,
50.000 , (Gagnon, 2004: 109).
-

. -
(Zeljko Raznatovic) , -
,
, -
, ,
, 2000 .
;
.
274
, -
.
-
-
. -
, ,
.
-

. ,

. -

-
,
( ) -
.
, -
-
. -

. -
,
-

. , -
,
.
, ,
, ,
, -
, .
275
,
. ,
, .

.
. ,
.
-
: .
1995 -
,
. -
. -

,
-
- .
-
-
1993 1994. ,
,
,
. ,

. , ,
, ,
(Karadzordzevo)
1991 .
,
.
276
.
,
, -
. ,
-

. , -
. , -
,
,
.
.
-
-
-
, ,
.
, -
1989-1990 .
2000,
, -
-
, -
(Gagnon,
2004). -

.
5 2000
.
, -

(Zoran Djindjic)
277
(Edmunds, 2008). -
, 2002,
12 2003. -
-

(Protic, 2006).

, ,
. , , -
, -
,
,
,
, ,
, -
, , ,
, -
DEPOS , -
, ajedno. DEPOS -

- .
Zejedno ,
1997-1998
(Thomas, 1998).
-
.

, 1987
. -

. ,
278
. ,
.
,
. -
.
-
. , , -
-
, . -
-
, (Milorad Vucelic),
- -
1991 1995.
, -
(Bozic-Roberson, 2005).
:
-
. ,
-
. , , -
,
, .

. -
, -
-
. - ,
,

. , -
-
. -
279
, -

(Vladisavljevi, (2004).

,
.
-
: (apparatchik), -
,
, -
, ,
.
-
,
.
. -
, -
. - -
,
.

, , 1/3
, , -
.
,
,
(Thomas, 1999: 422-432). 1987
1991 , 1991-1994
. , -
,
280
1998 -
, -
. , -
-
, -
, .
,
, , -

.
-
-
,
(Vojislav Seselj),
-
1994. -
, 1990 1992
, .
,
.
, -
-
.
-
,
-
-
, , -
. -
, ,
9 1991, 28 -
281
1992, 1993, 1996-1997

5 2000. 1990,
-
-
, 20%
, -
, -

, ,
,
, -
, 1992 (Miller, 1997).
.
! -
(Ibrahim Rugova),
,
, ,
, -
-
, -
, . -
, -
20% -
. -
-
, ,
,
- -
.
, ,
, . -
282
.
-
. , -

- -
.
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