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RESEARCH

WEEKLY
COMMODITY REPORT
Base Metals Up On Higher Equities, Euro!

12th Jul 2010 to 17th Jul 2010

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 Weekly Report Commodity
12th JulWeekly
to 17th Commodity
Jul 2010 Report
1st March to 6th Mar 2010
RESEARCH
RESEARCH

ECONOMIC DATA

Date Time Currency Economic Data Forecast Previous

Mon 7:30pm USD Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks

Jul 12

Tue 2:45am USD FOMC Member Duke Speaks

Jul 13
6:00pm USD Trade Balance -39.4B -40.3B

11:30pm USD Federal Budget Balance -81.6B -135.9B

Wed 6:00pm USD Core Retail Sales m/m -0.1% -1.1%

Jul 14
6:00pm USD Retail Sales m/m -0.1% -1.2%

6:00pm USD Import Prices m/m -0.1% -0.6%

7:30pm USD Business Inventories m/m 0.4% 0.4%

8:00pm USD Crude Oil Inventories -5.0M

11:30pm USD FOMC Meeting Minutes

Thu 6:00pm USD PPI m/m -0.2% -0.3%

Jul 15
6:00pm USD Unemployment Claims 453K 454K

6:00pm USD Core PPI m/m 0.1% 0.2%

6:00pm USD Empire State Manufacturing Index 18.9 19.6

6:45pm USD Capacity Utilization Rate 74.2% 74.1%

6:45pm USD Industrial Production m/m 0.0% 1.3%

7:30pm USD Fed Gov Nomination Hearings

7:30pm USD Philly Fed Manufacturing Index 11.4 8.0

8:00pm USD Natural Gas Storage 78B

Fri 6:00pm USD Core CPI m/m 0.1% 0.1%
Jul 16
6:00pm USD CPI m/m 0.1% -0.2%

6:30pm USD TIC Long-Term Purchases 73.7B 83.0B

7:25pm USD Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment 74.1 76.0

7:25pm USD Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations 2.8%

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 Weekly Report Commodity
12th JulWeekly
to 17th Commodity
Jul 2010 Report
1st March to 6th Mar 2010
RESEARCH
RESEARCH

Fundamental Market Overview

“GOLD RISES 1.5 U.S. Gold futures finished Friday at their highest close in four days, but gains were held in check by
PCT, CONSISTENT light volumes and sellers at $1,210 an ounce. Gold briefly rose 1.5 percent to four-day highs above
SELLING $1,210 an ounce on Friday, but selling around that level kept price gains capped. Uncertainty
CAPS HIGH ” surrounds the global economy and slow summer trading sessions kept prices, both in precious
metals as well as correlated markets such as equities in check. Spot Gold advanced to $1,209.05 an
ounce from previous session's late quote in New York at $1,196.48 an ounce. Earlier, it touched $1,213.35, its highest since July
5 against $1,196.48 late Thursday trade. U.S. gold futures for August delivery firmed $13.70 to settle at $1,209.80 on the New
York Mercantile Exchange's COMEX division, and earlier hit a four-day high at $1,214.10. Holdings of the world's largest gold-
backed exchange-traded fund, New York's SPDR Gold Trust, slipped again on Thursday, dipping 0.445 tonnes to 1,316.036
tonnes. The fund's holdings have retreated 4.4 tonnes from the record 1,320.436 tonnes they stood at in late June, as the safe
haven-related inflows seen in recent months dried up.

“OIL TOPS $76 IN Oil prices topped $76 per barrel on Friday on demand optimism, posting the biggest
CHOPPY TRADING, weekly increase since late May after a choppy low volume trading session. U.S. Crude for
POSTS WEEKLY August settled up 65 cents or 0.86 percent to $76.09 per barrel in a volatile session,
GAIN” closing the week with a 5.5 percent gain -- the biggest weekly jump since the week to
May 28. Prices jumped as much as $1 to $76.48, the highest intra-day price since June
30, slipping in and out of negative territory before settling up. Trading volumes for the front-month contract were at
their lowest levels since early last week. U.S. equities markets closed up as investors eyed corporate earnings season
that unofficially kicks off on Mondays. The S&P 500 index closed up 0.72 percent while the Dow Jones Industrial
average rose 0.58 percent, helping the principal U.S. stock indices post an increase of more 5 percent for the week --
their best week in a year. Investors often see rising equities markets as a sign of economic growth, which generally
spurs demand for oil. U.S. Crude was still below a 19-month peak above $87 reached in early May, having
rebounded sharply from a trough below $65 on May 20. Crude inventories in the United States dropped 5 million
barrels last week, more than twice as much as expected, the Energy Information Administration said. Markets
awaited Chinese trade data, to be published on Saturday, for further price direction. Year-on-year import and export
growth probably slowed last month from the sizzling pace set in May, in large part reflecting a higher base of
comparison as the global recovery gained strength around the middle of last year.

US COPPER ENDS AT U.S. copper futures closed up a two-week top on Friday, driven by improving economic
2-WK TOP, EYES sentiment and expectations that demand from China, the world's biggest consumer,
CHINA IMPORT remained robust in June. Copper for September delivery rose 3.80 cents, or 1.3 percent,
DATA” to finish at $3.0535 per lb on the COMEX metals division of the New York Mercantile
Exchange. Market momentum additionally fueled by expectations of rising copper
imports into China before scheduled release of data on Saturday. London Metal Exchange metal stocks fell by 2,100
tonnes to 436,900 tonnes, their lowest since November 2009. Deliverable copper inventories in warehouses
monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell 6 percent to 117,459 tonnes from 124,558 tonnes a week earlier.
Copper stocks on warrant down 1,226 tonnes to 26,245 tonnes. COMEX Copper inventories declined 47 short
tons to 101,235 short tons as of Thursday. Copper gains buck weaker tone in euro versus dollar, after round of
profit-taking in the single currency from more than 2-month peak. LME copper for three-month delivery closed at
$6,769 per tonne from Thursday close at $6,610 a tonne.

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 Weekly Report Commodity
12th JulWeekly
to 17th Commodity
Jul 2010 Report
1st March to 6th Mar 2010
RESEARCH
RESEARCH

Technical Analysis

GOLD
Weekly Pivots

SCRIPT R4 R3 R2 R1 P S1 S2 S3 S4

GOLD 1293 1263 1233 1221 1203 1191 1173 1143 1113

Weekly Chart

Market Overview Strategy

COMEX Gold is in consolidation phase. Last week COMEX Gold
did a low of 1185$ and bounced back. In the coming week 1165$/
1145$ an ounce will act as a good support in COMEX Gold, below
1165$/1160$ an ounce it can slightly correct and could test the
levels of 1150 $/ 1125 $ an ounce and above 1215$ an ounce it
can touch the level of 1225$/ 1240$ 1260$. Long Term trend of
COMEX Gold is bullish.
For the next week traders can use buy on lower level strategy if
COMEX Gold sustains above 1185$ an ounce by keeping the strict
stop losses.
Major support for COMEX Gold in the coming week would be
1165$ and 1120$.
Major resistance for COMEX Gold in the coming week would be
1270$ and 1295$
Major support in MCX Gold is 17900 and 17350
Major resistance in MCX Gold is 18900 and 19300

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 Weekly Report Commodity
12th JulWeekly
to 17th Commodity
Jul 2010 Report
1st March to 6th Mar 2010
RESEARCH
RESEARCH

SILVER
Weekly Pivots

SCRIPT R4 R3 R2 R1 P S1 S2 S3 S4

SILVER 1997 1930 1863 1835 1795 1768 1728 1661 1595

Weekly Chart

Market Overview Strategy

COMEX Silver is in upward consolidation phase. Last week For the next week traders can use sell on higher level strategy if
COMEX Silver sustained above 1750$ an ounce. For the upcoming Silver sustains below the level of 1850$/1880$ an ounce, by
week 1700$ and 1650$ are crucial supports and 1890 $ is a crucial keeping the proper stop losses.
resistance in COMEX Silver. In the coming week if COMEX Silver
fails to sustain above 1890$/ 1900$ then below 1740$/ 1750$ an
ounce it can come slightly downward and might test the level of
1700$ and 1650$/ 1660$ an ounce.

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 Weekly Report Commodity
12th JulWeekly
to 17th Commodity
Jul 2010 Report
1st March to 6th Mar 2010
RESEARCH
RESEARCH

CRUDE OIL
Weekly Pivots

SCRIPT R4 R3 R2 R1 P S1 S2 S3 S4

CRUDE 90.72 85.33 79.94 78.02 74.55 72.63 69.16 63.77 58.38

Weekly Chart

Market Overview Strategy

NYMEX Crude is consolidating on charts and moving in range For the next week traders can use the sell on higher level strategy if
between 70$ to 80$ a barrel. For the coming week 71$/68$ will NYMEX Crude does not sustain above the level of 80$ a barrel by
be a major support and 80.50$ to 81.40$ a barrel will be a major keeping the proper stop loss.
resistance. Crude is in consolidation phase and in the coming
week if Crude sustains above 80.50 $ a barrel then it can further
go upward. And below 70.50 $ a barrel if NYMEX Crude sustains
then a slight correction can come.

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 Weekly Report Commodity
12th JulWeekly
to 17th Commodity
Jul 2010 Report
1st March to 6th Mar 2010
RESEARCH
RESEARCH

COPPER
Weekly Pivots

SCRIPT R4 R3 R2 R1 P S1 S2 S3 S4

COPPER 350.60 334.05 317.50 311.50 301.00 294.90 284.40 267.90 251.30

Weekly Chart

Market Overview Strategy

Last week COMEX Copper was moving in an upward trading
channel and we saw some good buying coming at lower levels. For
the coming week traders should use the strategy of buy on lower
levels until COMEX Copper sustains above 300 level. If COMEX
Copper sustains above 313 we can see Copper near 328 level.
For the upcoming week 328 and 342 will act as major resistance in
COMEX Copper and 285 and 268 will act as major supports. For
MCX Copper major resistance would be 327 and 340 and
Supports would be found at 294 and 280.

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 Weekly Report Commodity
12th JulWeekly
to 17th Commodity
Jul 2010 Report
1st March to 6th Mar 2010
RESEARCH
RESEARCH

Weekly Pivots
Scripts R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3

GOLD 18958.00 18750.67 18580.33 18402.67 18232.33 18054.67 17884.33

SILVER 29641.00 29361.00 29129.00 28817.00 28585.00 28273.00 28041.00

COPPER 327.55 323.90 319.90 312.25 308.25 300.60 296.60

CRUDE 3755.00 3697.33 3625.67 3496.33 3424.67 3295.33 3223.67

NATURAL GAS 253.70 240.87 223.83 213.97 196.93 187.07 170.03

LEAD 89.40 88.40 87.00 84.60 83.20 80.80 79.40

ZINC 90.90 89.95 88.65 86.40 85.10 82.85 81.55

NICKEL 945.40 937.30 924.10 902.80 889.60 868.30 855.10

ALUMINUM 96.65 96.02 94.58 92.52 91.08 89.02 87.58

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 Weekly Report Commodity
12th JulWeekly
to 17th Commodity
Jul 2010 Report
1st March to 6th Mar 2010
RESEARCH
RESEARCH

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