CHAPTER | Introduction Introduction System designers ave always been concemed withthe subject of reliblty. The ‘beneal approach has ben, however, either intuitive or based on rule of thumb ‘itera drived from prevlousexpesionce with sil systems. The inuitie pproach his proved tobe inadequate withthe growth of complex miltary and industal systems, where a composite of equipment, sills and techniques function a unified entity. There hs ben considerable emphasis, in he past ‘wo decades, onthe development of quantitative techniques and indices which respond meaningfully othe factors which actually affect the system ella Quamitative evaluation is achieved by building matheratial models which reasonably idelze the actual system and can be manipulated to obtain suitable rmeasies of liability, The role of relibilty modeling and evaluation can be Sppreiated by examining the various sags of «general lability program. Reliability Planing ‘eis generally agreed that system relabity must be bul in atthe design stage ‘ofa pret. Te desired level of liability can be achieved only by planning and lplementng good reliably program, A reliability program generally consists ‘ofthe following elements: 1 definition of system eebabilty 2 over target and allocation to subsystems 5 lability modeling and evaluation 4 testing and data collection 5 evaluation of altemative designs 6 elabiity report, ‘This sequence ot sg and in fst many steps may hav te repeated in an tive fashion. A beef description ofthese steps is 35 lows 1 Definition of System Rely ‘There are several definitions of lability quoted inthe itrature but the one mot often stated in textbooks Is ‘the probability thatthe system wil perfnm2 System Reliability Modeling and Ertan itsintended function for gen perio of ne unde stated envionment ondton. This definition, however, adequate for many occasions an is ‘licen its scope of apaiation, Its more appropriate to alk of ‘aniatve measures which when compared wit eeence indices, inate ‘Expect consistency with or devtion from the reqied performance Seca foeaures are dscsod in etal in Chapter anda bret revew of thee sien be The matures may be ine spec, e.,fanetons of tne, o sendy tte thon they refer tothe esibiom conditions. The former are required when {he analy leconcemes with te tse etavour othe system athe Inter while considering the average behavoar over angie uli the literate to define alibi inde in terms of sytem succes file, Many complex systems have, ower, sever etl of fale For enample ge poe of complex equipment ay not be dnply working tot woking but may have many posible otput ates. Te stheeore ppropriat to define the clultd eablity measues ia trms ofa subse. thigh may contin ny number of system sass. particular ppliations {an be elesed tae ccs, ire or some other appropri mane ‘me Specie Domain ‘The following inde re commonly uted for repairable systems the transient domi: (a) Time Specific Avot of Subser X* ‘This sao called point wise svalaity or iestant avait an isthe probability of the yom being any sate contained eX" at pacar Instant of time ¢ () Petia! Duption of Subset X* ‘Also known athe intra seb, actions ration of X* andi efi a he expected proportion ofthe tere (spent in 2 {cl tera Frequency ‘The inter equeny ls defined asthe expected or mean umber of nes he subset Xs encountred inthe interval (4) Reliabtey he saces an fre tte are denoted by X* and hen rely ihe probability of being in X7 atthe without having entered The term ‘once ean the sity of the stem to perfor it intended function. “This approneh rextended to qushttve apraal whee the erm laity is Irurosueion 3 comsdred aan trinsic sytem parameter which can be mearred by vaious Indus. The definition en above more specifi abd vlablity i considered 24 mithomatel quant which site a meas, Steal Stare Domain (c) Steady State Avaitabtty of X* ‘Commonly ealled availablity, thi the liming value of both point wise ‘ways Theft ss the probability of being ina state contained in X¥ a ome point of tne remote from te origin. The second i athe ime spent in X* a6 & faction ofthe total ime (0,7) 257 tends tobe very lee. (0) Steady State Frequency of Encountering X* ‘smore often simply called frequeney ad can be defined in two ways, The fists the mean at at whishX” is beng encountered at sme point in ine remot from the rgn The econd, he serge numberof encounters of X*, ensiered ove ver age ine inter (el Mean cycle Tine ‘This is defied a dhe mean tine between wo successive encounters of 17 Wis the reciprocal of frequency (4) Mean Duration of * ‘Us the expected time of residence in X none cyte of X* In addition tothe measures defined shove, two nore wel meatus canbe called wig the conept outined in Chapter 2 (6) Meon Fost Posage Tine ‘This the tne fro system initiation othe it encounter of * where X* denotes the system ale condition. (1) Mean Passage Tne When considered im erms of ytem flue, the mean passage tne i called the mean tne false ada he mena ine frm a insta when the tem Ibin (1 is the disjoint of X), chosen randomly, tothe encounter of 2° ‘The chole of s proper measure depend pon seer actors sch he sysiem requireens, the fest of eeuations, essay, and so. ‘The various measures espond in diferent ways othe system parameters and a0 single meesure can gies complete pctre of stem rab. When desing Wi epiale ystems inthe ne dora, ho ma epee aay fractional dusaon and inter froqueney are the mot wef parameters nthe ‘ead state avalablty, equency or ycle time and the mean duration provide4 Sytem Relay Modeling and Bvauation ‘good measure of stem adequacy. The we of multiple indices ean sometimes ‘ene prblems egauingdecon making. A wephing or mort voting rosedure canbe employed in sch cases. Usually one inex mor important ina gen physica eavzonment de othe nature ofthe syste cto, 2 Overall Target and Allston to Subsystems ‘Tae overeat tat foragten stem fe normally determined by ‘onstaton between sunagment, planting tad dei functions witha the ‘wpuiztion. The selected target is used onthe state of thea and the nod and dene for farther improvements Tart selection coast of sting 2 Specie probably, eguency or some other relay idx 5 the goals for the projet habit propre. In ener the ages should be optimist But ‘Should also be pyle achievable, Rell sie otox parameters sch ‘ped, weight and cont aay sch is subject to trade off with these thee Forametes For example the relly ofa parulr pumping sysem maybe ‘weal improved by instling pare pumps, Bt the cost may be prohibitive (nce an eal rset forthe stem has been dened, te nex stp to late the targets forthe diferent subsystems which make up the total system, ‘Thisca evolve cousderabe amount of for anda th ear, the allowing techniques ar elf Siner Fair System Technique ‘Tals approach sbasd on experience and objective judgement and every wef inthe conceptual design sage prior o total deinton ofthe sytem. The allocation & based on the state af the a of snr sates performing the ‘ume bale function, When ung his tengo, the ollowing fects mst Be carfilly eonsered when making the projection () system physi and performance comparison (i) design siti (i) ramutactuing eta {All ssmptions an conditions reuied to meet the predicted target Rare and thei impiation tothe popram mist be examined and fined. Factors of Influence Method ‘This technique ls sed when thee fan over elaity goal and the system or equipment design isnew, or when the stem ia madiiation of n existing ‘Sst or whi operating expenence data ae hot ava (0 foreach een couse, aging weighs to the following acon: Inroducton 5 (2) complesity/time of operation (0) envuonmental conditions (©) sate of the at (@) stieaity (i) for ach system adding the above weights to ota th ystem weigh (Gi) obtaining the eltive sytem weiht foreach ytem by normalization (@) appotioning the over taresacotdag to the relative system weights 3 Retabilty Modeling and Evaluation ‘hiss an important element in sy aliablty program becuse the selected model prods the bas Tor reiting the elailtymeatures.Vavous techniques of relabilty modeling and eshaton ae dtessd in deta a this ‘bok. These ecnique are ether erst anaytcl modeling or simulation or Amature ofthe two approaches. Inthe det analyte modalling ethos ‘mode sb which rentonably ales the physic tem ands so ‘sperable to calculation. Thereby messes ae then obsined by ‘manpalting the model. This apposch superr to simulation snd should be ‘wed whereer possible, Simulation also employs a mathematical mol but roceais by performing suming experiments on thi mod, It more exible buts ao mor imeconsuming ad less accurate. Smation cane use to [rovide estimates a the sme baie meatreswhish would be obtained by & det analytical approach ‘In hein stage of desig, when only ager stem outne is vale, ‘he analyst may have to be satised with racimentary Tae mode, effete and tality analysis FMECA), Th ehique ca be wed systematically sly themodes of aurea thefts on the sytem, The Yous alte modes can be arranged in order of tho italy to the syste requirements and provide some very useful design modification dat. The rlblty code sin general ‘mote and improved the dss progress and becomes oie ‘Thetis one pial which every rolabity engioge st guard agains. Repenting experients with mathematical model ona computer ean geerate ‘onldence in dhe reibiity measures so obtaiod. Aces look wt the inpet ats anda the model sad may prove that tis est of confidence sot really juste. The astumptions Blt nto sey del an the vay of the data wed -must be caefily considered whea aterpeing the els povided bythe ole 4 Testing nd Data Collection {a many research and development projets tes wil ba made a compoane, ‘sembly and systom lel syste procedure sould be adopted for collecting data from these tls i a cumaltve manner In many projets it6 Sytem Retaiy Modeling and Fvakution may not be pose to conduct tes, ad data fom oh sources having ‘Sula orte may be wed, Data collection activites ae ital par of reabilty ‘alton since without il at, exces sophistieaton in mode bldg ‘ay be Spy ttlectual exercise, 5 Enluation of Aterative Desens “Taeorsilly. a numberof design should be prepared and the on having aim rib and ststyng the other constraints shoud be selected. In Some css, the nbe of ltratves maybe relative smal deo py ‘ont, Reliability analy provides an adiional dpe of eonssteny t0 the emlation of altetate propos I many cases, te decison i based pon lamest ol oe an therefore the funtion of the eltty salto ensue that the srt o desig selected doc sy the eqused ito. Reality ‘elution should provide wef ipot atthe design decson points. If the ltalyis ir not done athe design propese, does ao provide ths initia funedon and therefore becomes a bookkeoping exerci ater the fact, 6 Retabity Report ‘The final step nan eliblty study should be the progration of a etd ‘spot containing information onthe elit program, the tis made and the reutsobtsine. The report must contain he asonptlons made developing the elablty model and ao indicat the lee! of confidence in the fata uted. The repr should be an objective atxnent snd should enable the top management fo obisina proper appa af he expoctedsjsten rab ‘Scope of This Bok ‘Te genera pplestion of elabity engin concepts i an extremely wide Sik ev illrtated by the sx broad topes nated eal. Ts book makes no stem to del will hse topics and is devoted eatie'yto the concepts, ‘Baloopiy and techniques or ebiality modeling ndevauation. The stems Sly andthe reliability expert must be eapabe of developing val models for ‘labity ealation ofa sytem, The psetry background in probability ang Sochstc process sheefre essential ads eviewel in some deta i {Chapter 2, Te book emphasize the eaizuation af more tan ove rlbity measures angle dex may ot provide complete pte ofthe system tsliabity. The Boo covers oth onsant transition ate and ao Markos ‘ystems A special chapters devoted to the problems encountered in elabilty fvaaton of rg sytem and several solitons re proponed. Reb tals an inter prt of econome sytem dein. Is exterely important that allay be conlered in quantitate rater than hav tetas abd therlore provides content and sponse ndeator of system adequacy.