ZUSGS science for a changing world Propared in Cooperation with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration A NOAA-USGS Demonstration Flash-Flood and Debris-Flow Early-Warning System nce the smoke clears from a wildfire, the danger not over! Gtr hazards, such as fas lds and dis lows, ow become the focus, Just smal amount of rainfall ona bu scar can lead to flash loot and debris flows. The powertl force of rushing water, sol and rock, both within the burned area and downstream, can destoy culver, ridges, roadways, and structures Flash floas and debris lows can thus ‘aise srious injury or death cre isnot taken. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration INOAA) ad the United States Geological Suvey (USGS) have established a demonstration las load and detris-ow ea waming syste fr recently burned areas in southem Califo, The damonstaton projet cars eight counties within southem Califia and wll begin the autumn of 2005. jamal Weather Precipitation Prediction andl Monitoring: The Service (NWS) rout forecasts and monitors precipitation ‘events. Precipitation forecasts are for both the probabil precipitation occurring and the most likely amount, Fo. are typically issued twice daily and updated as condi sant, Forecasts are derived from 3 number of numerical and statistical weather models, as well as NWS forecaster expertise, Precipitation mor Weather Forecast Offices using rain oring is conducted in real time atthe local ‘Dobrs-law deposits in Cable Canyon in San Bernardino County, Calfonia. Cable Canyon wes burned during the Grand Prix-Old Fre 6f2008 and was the ste of debris flows and foods in response to the December 25,2002, reinstorm, Two people lost their lives at his ste. networks, NWS doppler radars, and satellite estimates. ‘Waring System Operation: The demonstra- tion project utilizes the NWS's Flash Flood “Monitoring and Prediction (PMP) system, ‘Comparisons betwe and observed precipitation and rai FEMP to identify when and where flash flockls and debris flows are likely to occur, When precipitation amounts meet or exceed threshold values fora particular drainage basin, the NWS. ‘will issue a Watch or a Warning. Advisory ‘Outlooks, Watches, and Warnings ane dissemi nated to emergency management personnel and the public through the NWS Advanced Weather Information Processing System, Rainfall Thresholds: Warnings and Watches for postfire flash floods and debris flows are ‘based on peak storm duration rainfall thresh- ‘olds. Such thresholds have been developed Southern California radar coverage bie regions] and realxime rin gauge locations (red dts US Gesipeat Sune QD rersmnemven Sipemer 8for recently burned areas in southern California by am comparing characteristics of storms known to have pro- dced flash floods and debris flows with those that did not. ‘Thresholds have been defined g by identifying those combi- nations of peak storm rainfall and duration that are unique to flash-floed~and debris- ‘los producing storms Posie dreshold conditions change with time as sediment supplies ae depleted and ‘vegetation recovers. Thore- = fore, in addition to thresholds ‘that are useful for immedi ately after fire, thresholds for the following rainy season |g have also been developed, as ‘What Can You Do If You Live Near A Recently Burned Arca? Prior to Storms: |. Watch the pattems of storm-warer drainage near your hhome, and note the places where runoff water converges, ‘increasing flow in channels, These are areas to avoid during storm. 2. Contact your local authorities to lear about the emergeney- response and evacuation plans for your area, Develop your ‘own emergency plan for your family or business. During a Stor 1. Stay alert Many debris-flow and flash-lood fatalities occur ‘when people are sleeping, Listen tothe radio for warnings of intense rainfall. NOAA Weather Radio All Hazards tone alert will lt you know of hazards in your area, Be aware ‘that intense bursts of rain may be particularly dangerous, especially after longer periods of heavy rainfall 2. Ifyou are in an area that is susceptible to floading or debris flow (or has been subject to flooding or debris flows i the past), consider leaving ifit is safe to do so. Remember that driving during heavy rainstorms ean be hazardous. 3. Ifyou ate near a stream or a channel, listen for any unusual ‘sounds that might indicate moving debris, such as trees ‘racking or boulders knocking together. A wiekle of flowing mud or debris may precede larger flows. Be alert for any sudden increases or decreases in water flow and fora change from clear to muddy water, Such changes may indicate debris-flow activity upstream, so be prepared fomove quickly. Don’t delay! Save yourself, not your belongings. 4, Keep in mind that rises in water levels during flash floods and debris flows may occur mach more rapidly and may be significantly larger, than those produced when the watershed is not burned. 5. Be particularly aler when driving. Bridges may be washed fut, and culverts overtopped. Do not cross flooding. Peak storm nfl and dura tion thresholds for recently bbumed, mountainous areas of southern Caloris, Reinfallcondions above ‘the threshold lines are those likely to rigger debris flows and fash floods from recently burned areas. ‘Toveshod lines delineate & range of rainfall combine 'San Gabriel San Benard, ‘and San Jacinto Moumtains nila tga ‘ions—from short duration, cae low peak rainfall to longer Santa La Range, Sia Mate, duration higher peaks—any and Sama Yez, Topstop, Santa fof whieh ean result in lash Susara ard Santa Morice Mourns flood or debris-fow activity. ferent thresholds because of Variations in surficial mater- als, vegetation, topography, and prevailing weather patton. streams!! Tum Around, Don’t Drown i! Embankments along roadsides are particularly susceptible to landsling. Watch the road for collapsed pavement, mud, fallen rocks, and other dcbris-flow and Mash-flood dangers. GAO ys corms munrinc omee assmamNED