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All models are wrong but some models are useful
George Box, 1978

Y = Ym(x) +

= + ( )

= Y Ym(x)
E[ ] = = 0; D[ ] = 2


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(Y Y ) 2 = (Y Ym ) 2 + (Ym Y ) 2
+o
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: % =



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(Nash and Sutcliffe, 1970) E, NSE, Ef

E =1
(Y Ym ) 2
E ( ,1], E = 0 Y
(Y Y ) 2
(Willmot, 1981)

d = 1 (Y Ym ) 2 d [0,1]
(|Ym Y | +|Y Y |) 2



X 1 , X 2 ,..., X n ; X t = f t + S t + Ct + t , t = 1,2,..., n
ft -
St
Ct
t
-

MA(q) , (MA- moving average),
X t = 1 + a1 t 1 + ... + aq t q ; t T ; t (0, 2 ) MA(1) : X t = 1 + a1 t 1

ARMA(p,q) , (ARMA-autoregressive
moving average),
GAR(1) (GAR gamma-
autoregressive),
PARMA(p,q) (periodic ARMA),
MAR(p) (MAR -multivariate
autoregressive model),
CARMA(p,q) , (CARMA-
contemporaneous multivariate model),
MPAR(p) (MPAR- multivariate
periodic model),

(Nash,1957) ,
, ,
- (Dawdy and ODonnell, 1965) USGS-
,

- The Stanford Watershed Model (SWM) (Crawford
and Linsley, 1966) -

SSAR (Rockwood, 1958; U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, 1972)

SHE European Hydrological System Systme Hydrologique
Europen,
TANK (Sugawara and Maryama, 1956; Sugawara, 1975)-
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HBV (Bergstrom, 1980)
ILR ( , 1982) - ; DILR-
a,

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(Sugawara, 1967-1984)

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The Hydrologic Modeling System (HEC-HMS) -
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SHE
1980
: (), SOGREAH
() DHI Water Environment Health().
MIKE SHE (DHI) SHETRAN
(School of Civil Engineering and Geosciences, Newcastle
University, UK).
SHETRAN ,
.
SHETRAN


.
km2
100m .

SHE SHETRAN,
.
3D


(variably saturated subsurface (VSS)).
,
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Digital elevation model (DEM),
.

SHETRAN