Hi tho khoa hc Quc gia v Kh tng Thy vn, Mi trng v Bin i kh hu ln th XVI

XM NHP MN MA KH CC NM 2011-2013 NG BNG

SNG CU LONG V CNG TC D BO MN CA
I KH TNG THU VN KHU VC NAM B
Trn nh Phng, Hong L Nhung
i Kh tng Thy vn khu vc Nam B

Xm nhp mn c ngha quan trng i vi ng bng sng Cu Long (BSCL), n

nh hng trc tip n cc mt i sng- kinh t- x hi ca khu vc. Ma kh hng nm
i Khi tng Thu vn khu vc Nam B (i KTTV KV Nam B) tin hnh d bo xm
nhp mn phc v sn xut v i sng sinh hot ca ngi dn khu vc BSCL. Bo co
ny phn tch din bin xm nhp mn trong cc nm gn y v nh gi cc phng php
d bo xm nhp mn ang c s dng.

1. Mng li trm o mn ca i KTTVKV Nam B

Vo ma kh hng nm, i KTTV KV Nam B thc hin o mn ti 34 trm
c nh cc tnh thnh ven bin (Hnh 1a). Vo nhng nm mn xm nhp su hn,
ngoi h thng trm o mn c bn, i KTTV KV Nam B cn t chc o kho st
mn dc cc sng Vm C, sng Tin, sng Hu, sng Ci Ln v sng Ci B vo
cc k triu cng trong cc thng III, IV, V.

Hnh 1: Bn mng li trm o mn khu vc BSCL

Ti cc a phng BSCL, ty theo yu cu phc v m cc tnh cp kinh
ph cc Trung tm KTTV tnh o thm cc trm dng ring ngoi mng li trm
o mn c bn nu trn.
148 Tp 2: Thy vn - Ti nguyn nc, Bin, Mi trng
Hi tho khoa hc Quc gia v Kh tng Thy vn, Mi trng v Bin i kh hu ln th XVI

Cc trm thc hin o mn t thng 2 n thng 7 hng nm, nhng nm mn

xm nhp sm th thi gian o c th sm hn.
Ty theo tnh hnh thy triu, i KTTV KV Nam B qui nh lch o mn chi
tit cho tng h thng sng, mi thng c t 4-5 t o bao gm cc thi k triu
cng v triu km, mi t o ko di 3 ngy, mu mn c ly 12 ln trong ngy
vo cc gi l.
2. Tnh hnh xm nhp mn BSCL cc nm
- Nm 2011:
Ma kh nm 2011, mn xm nhp kh sm, t u thng 2 mn ti hu ht
cc trm u cao hn cng k nm 2010; trn h thng sng Vm C mt s ni t
mc cao nht nm ngay t u thng 2 nh Tn An (3,8g/l, ngy 2/2), Bn Lc (5,3 g/l
ngy 3/2).
Tuy nhin, trong ma kh nm 2011, c bit trong cc thng 2 v 3 c ma
tri ma nhiu ni thuc min Ty Nam B nn tr mt s trm ven bin v dng
chnh, cn hu ht cc trm ni ng mn u tng khng ng k, cc trm c
mc tng cao so vi thng 2 u thuc cc trm nm trn dng chnh ca h thng
sng Cu Long c bit cc trm trn nhnh sng Hu vi mc tng t 7-12 g/l, trn
cc nhnh ca sng Tin c mc tng t hn t 3-7g/l. mn trn cc sng gim
nhanh t gia thng 5 khi c ma u trn khu vc.
mn ln nht nm hu ht cc trm xut hin vo na cui thng 3 v u
thng 4 mc xp x hoc nh hn cng thi k nm 2010 (Bng 1) v cha t
mn ln nht so vi chui s liu t 1995-2010.
Khu vc bn o C Mau, mn cc thng ma kh dao ng mc kh cao
t 22-27g/l nhng vn cn thp hn cng k nm 2010 t 5-7 g/l.
ng ng mn trong nm 2011(Hnh 2a), cho thy vi mn 4g/l:
- Trn h thng sng Vm C, xm nhp su nht khong 65 km k t ca
sng.
- Trn sng Tin, xm nhp su nht khong 40 km k t ca sng.
- Trn sng Hu, xm nhp su nht khong 47 km k t ca sng.
- Trn sng Ci Ln, xm nhp su nht khong 38 km k t ca sng.
- Nm 2012:
Nm 2011 c l ln trn sng Cu Long, nn t u n gia ma kh nm
2012, mc nc u ngun sng Cu Long ti Tn Chu v Chu c lun mc cao
hn trung bnh nhiu nm, v cao hn cng k nm 2011 t 0,30-0,70 m.
Ma kh nm 2012 tnh hnh nng nng khu vc Nam B khng gay gt, c
ma tri ma trn din rng; ngay gia cc thng ma kh, lin tc c cc t khng
kh lnh tng cng gy ra gi ma ng Bc c cng mnh khng ch ton b
bin ng, trung tun thng 2 xut hin 1 ATN, c bit cui thng 3, u thng
4 khu vc Nam B chu nh hng ca cn bo s 1 (Pakhar, 1201) gy ma nhiu
ni; trong thng 3, thng 4 hu ht cc tnh BSCL c lng ma cao hn trung bnh

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nhiu nm (TBNN), c bit cc trm C Mau, Cn Th, Bc Liu, Sc Trng c

lng ma cao hn TBNN t 150-220mm.
Do vy, xm nhp mn hu ht cc sng trong ma kh nm 2012 u mc
thp. Trong thng 2, mn cc trm dc sng Tin, sng Hu nh hn cng k nm
2011 t 5-10 g/l, v t 3-5 g/l trn sng Vm C. mn tng cao trong thng 3 v
t mc kh cao vo k triu cng gia thng 3, y cng l thi im mt s ni
xut hin mn cao nht nm nh Bn Lc, Cu Ni (sng Vm C), Xo R (sng
Ci Ln), An Ninh (sng Ci B); cc trm cn li mn cao nht nm xut hin vo
na u thng 4. So vi nm 2011, mn cao nht nm 2012 thp hn t 1-5g/l. Cc
trm c mn cao hn nm 2011 u thuc nhnh sng Tin gm cc trm An nh,
M Tho, ng Tm (Bng 1).
- Trn h thng sng Vm C, mn 4g/l xm nhp su nht khong 50 km
k t ca sng.
- Trn sng Tin, mn 4g/l xm nhp su nht khong 35 km k t ca sng.
- Trn sng Hu mn 4g/l xm nhp su nht khong 50 km k t ca sng.
- Trn sng Ci Ln mn 4g/l xm nhp su nht khong 30 km k t ca
sng.
C th ni rng, nm 2012 mn khu vc Nam B mc thp nht trong
nhiu nm tr li y (Hnh 2b)
- Nm 2013:
u ma kh nm 2013, lng nc t thng ngun sng M-Cng v kh
nh nn mn xm nhp sm v su. Trong thng 2, mn cc trm u cao hn cng
k cc nm gn y, c bit trn h thng sng Cu Long, mn cao nht thng 2
mc cao nht trong chui s liu nhiu nm cng thi k (1995-2010):
- Trn sng Tin ti trm Ha Bnh mn cao nht thng 2 l 13,7 g/l cao hn
nm 2012 l 8,2g/l; ti trm An nh l 3,7 g/l (nm 2012 cha mn); trm Hng M
(S. C Chin) l 10,8 g/l (nm 2012 l 0,6g/l); ti trm Tr Vinh (S. C Chin) l 12,8
g/l cao hn cng k nm 2012 9,0 g/l
- Trn sng Hu, mn cao nht thng 2 ti trm Tr Kha l 16,2 g/l (nm
2012 l 8,6 g/l), ti trm i Ngi l 8,4 g/l (2012 l 2,0 g/l). Cc trm ni ng cng
mc kh cao, cao hn nm 2012 v mc xp x nm 2011.
- H thng sng Vm C, mn cao nht thng 2 ti cc trm Tn An, Bn
lc mc xp x cng k nm 2012.
im kh c bit l d thi k nh im ma kh, mn vng ca sng
mc kh cao nhng mn cc trm dc sng Tin, sng Hu lin tc gim trong sut
thng 3, mn cao nht thng 3 mc thp hn thng 2 t 5-7g/l, c thi im cn
thp hn mn nm 2012, mc d mn c tng li vo u thng 4 nhng vn cn
nh hn kh nhiu so vi mn cao nht trong thng 2.
Trong khi , trn h thng sng Vm C v vng bn o C Mau mn c
bit tng cao vo nhng ngy u thng 4, ti Tn An, Bn Lc cao hn cng k nm
2012 t 3,5 4,0 g/l. Ti Tuyn Nhn (S. Vm C Ty) cch ca bin 120 km c

150 Tp 2: Thy vn - Ti nguyn nc, Bin, Mi trng

Hi tho khoa hc Quc gia v Kh tng Thy vn, Mi trng v Bin i kh hu ln th XVI

xut hin mn mc 0,3 g/l; ti Phc Long, C Mau cao hn cng k cc nm 2011,
2012 t 10-15g/l.
n u thng 4 nm 2013, t bn xm nhp mn cho thy (Hnh 2c):
- Ranh mn 4g/l trn sng Vm C xm nhp su t 65-70 km tnh t ca sng.
- Ranh mn 4g/l trn sng Tin, sng Hu xm nhp su nht khong 40- 50 km
tnh t ca sng.
- Ranh mn 4g/l trn sng Ci Ln xm nhp su nht khong 50 km tnh t
ca sng.

(2a)

(2b)

Tp 2: Thy vn - Ti nguyn nc, Bin, Mi trng 151

Hi tho khoa hc Quc gia v Kh tng Thy vn, Mi trng v Bin i kh hu ln th XVI

(2c)

Hnh 2: Bn xm nhp mn cc nm 2011 (2a), 2012 (2b) v 2013 (2c)

Bng 1: mn cao nht cc nm 2011-2013 khu vc Nam B
Nm 2011 Nm 2012 Nm 2013 Smax
Cch Thi
Tn Tn Ga Ngy Ga Ngy Ga Ngy
TT bin k
trm sng tr xut tr xut tr xut
(km) 1995-
(g/l) hin (g/l) hin (g/l) hin 2010
Cu Vm
1 20 16,7 21/03 14,1 14/03 15,8 27/02 22,5
Ni C
Bn Vm C
2 56 5,3 02/03 3,5 13/03 3,6 01/04 15,4
Lc ng
Vm
3 Tn An 69 3,8 02/02 0,7 10/04 4,7 04/04 15,7
C Ty
Vm Ca
4 2 25,1 20/02 23,7 11/03 25,0 27/02 30,9
Knh Tiu
Ha
5 - 18 12,4 21/02 10,1 10/04 13,7 27/02 19,8
Bnh
Bnh Ca
6 4 26,8 13/03 27,3 09/04 29,1 07/03 29,4
i i
An M
7 48 2,4 21/02 3,1 10/04 3,8 27/02 12,7
nh Tho
M
8 Tin 55 0,7 22/03 2,0 10/04 2,2 27/02 10,0
Tho
ng
9 - 63 0,4 21/03 1,2 10/04 0,8 01/03 4,9
Tm

152 Tp 2: Thy vn - Ti nguyn nc, Bin, Mi trng

Hi tho khoa hc Quc gia v Kh tng Thy vn, Mi trng v Bin i kh hu ln th XVI

Nm 2011 Nm 2012 Nm 2013 Smax

Cch Thi
Tn Tn Ga Ngy Ga Ngy Ga Ngy
TT bin k
trm sng tr xut tr xut tr xut
(km) 1995-
(g/l) hin (g/l) hin (g/l) hin 2010
An Hm
10 10 28,9 28/03 25,5 10/04 29,9 07/03 30,6
Thun Lung
Sn
11 - 20 14,5 28/03 13,1 10/04 19,2 06/03 24,1
c
Bn C
12 10 28,1 23/03 27,3 10/04 27,2 10/02 29,1
Tri Chin
Tr
13 - 28 11,2 01/04 10,2 03/04 12,8 25/02 11,2
Vinh
Tr
14 Hu 7 21,2 26/03 15,7 10/04 16,2 25/02 22,8
Kha
Long
15 - 15 17,8 22/03 16,8 09/04 18,1 01/03 21,9
Ph
i
16 - 30 11,1 21/03 8,4 09/04 8,4 09/03 14,6
Ngi
Cu
17 - 32 8,3 19/03 8,1 05/04 9,2 26/02 11,8
Quan
M M
18 0 23,1 22/03 20,9 08/05 21,7 31/03 36,8
Thanh Thanh
Thnh K. Nh Ni
19 10,5 06/05 5,1 13/03 10,0 02/04 17,5
Ph Gia ng
Sc K.
20 - 4,0 27/03 2,0 09/04 5,5 17/03 8,1
Trng Maspero
Gnh Gnh
21 2 31,0 05/06 31,9 03/04 33,1 08/04 33,8
Ho Ho
C Ni
22 - 28,4 27/04 27,3 24/04 33,1 08/04 37,8
Mau ng
Sng
23 S. c 0 30,9 21/04 31,7 24/04 31,9 30/01 39,7
c
Phc Phng Ni
24 27,5 04/05 24,9 18/03 33,1 08/04 37,7
Long Hip ng
Ci
25 Xo R 4 16,9 17/02 18,5 14/03 22,5 07/04 25,0
Ln
G
26 - 34 8,2 13/03 7,2 28/01 14,2 06/04 18,8
Quao
Rch
27 S. Kin 0 15,1 17/02 16,9 14/03 17,2 07/04 24,1
G
An
28 Ci B 8 14,6 16/02 9,3 14/03 21,5 07/04 24,5
Ninh
Tp 2: Thy vn - Ti nguyn nc, Bin, Mi trng 153
Hi tho khoa hc Quc gia v Kh tng Thy vn, Mi trng v Bin i kh hu ln th XVI

3. D bo mn
Cc phng php d bo mn p dng trong d bo tc nghip gm c:
- Phng php tng quan,
- Phng php phn tch xu th
- Phng php m hnh
Qua nghin cu, p dng cc phng php trn d bo mn cho BSCL cho
thy:
- Phng php tng quan: S dng s liu mn o trong nhiu nm, lp tng
quan gia c trng mn trm bin vi cc trm trong sng, v gia cc trm lin k
nhau trong cng h thng sng, Qua d bo cho thy kt qu c th chp nhn c
mt s trm, cng vo su trong sng cht lng d bo cng gim i, Kt qu d bo
ph thuc vo chnh xc ca d bo mn bin vng ca sng,
- Phng php phn tch xu th : Da vo s liu mn thc o v xu th mc
nc triu d bo mn ti 1 v tr, nhc im ca phng php ny l ph
thuc vo ch quan ca ngi lm d bo, tuy nhin do c xt n cc yu t gi,
ma nn cho kt qu kh tt trong trng hp d bo ngn 3-5 ngy,
- Phng php m hnh: M hnh HydroGis c s dng nh mt cng c tr
gip d bo, kt qu cho thy:
+ Xu th : Kt qu tnh ton mn t m hnh cho xu th kh ph hp vi
thc o, c bit theo bin trnh ngy v chu k 5-7 ngy,
+ Sai s tuyt i khc nhau theo tng trm, mt s trm c gi tr tnh ton cao
hn thc o nhng cng c mt s trm c gi tr tnh ton thp hn thc o, Mt vi
thi on chnh lch gia gi tr thc o v tnh ton kh ln, Bin u vo ca m
hnh thng c chn l gi tr trung bnh nhiu nm nn khi d bo di hn thng
cho sai s ln,
+ M hnh thch hp cho vic tr gip d bo xm nhp mn trong thi on
ngn t 5-7 ngy.

MN D BO V THC O TRM TR VINH

6.0
S (g/l)

5.0

4.0

3.0

2.0

1.0
Tinhtoan Thucdo
0.0
15/3 16/3 17/3 18/3 19/3 20/3 21/3

Hnh 3. Qu trnh mn d bo v thc o ti trm Tr Vinh theo HydroGis

154 Tp 2: Thy vn - Ti nguyn nc, Bin, Mi trng

Hi tho khoa hc Quc gia v Kh tng Thy vn, Mi trng v Bin i kh hu ln th XVI

MN D BO V THC O TRM I NGI

5.0
S (g/l)

4.0

3.0

2.0

1.0

tinhtoan thucdo

0.0
21/3 22/3 23/3 24/3 25/3 26/3 27/3 28/3

Hnh 4. Qu trnh mn d bo v thc o ti trm i Ngi theo HydroGis

4. Kt lun
Xm nhp mn ph thuc vo nhiu yu t nh thy triu, gi, ma, lu lng
thng ngun, a hnh lng sngdo d bo mn l mt vn kh; Kt qu d
bo mn trong thi gian qua cho thy, mc d cha thc s cho kt qu nh mong
mun, song m hnh HydroGis l mt cng c tr gip d bo xm nhp mn kh hu
hiu cho khu vc Nam B ni chung v BSCL ni ring, ci thin cht lng bn
tin d bo mn ngoi vic hon thin k nng s dng m hnh, thng xuyn cp
nht s liu cc bin u vo, cn cn phi kt hp vi cc phng php d bo khc.
Trong thi gian ti c th p dng thm m hnh Mike m phng, d bo xm nhp
mn cho BSCL hy vng s cho kt qu d bo tt hn.

TI LIU THAM KHO

1. Mike 2011. A Modelling System for River and Chanels- User Guide.
2. Nguyn Hu Nhn (2003), Hng dn s dng HydroGis.

SALINITY INTRUSION OF MEKONG DELTA IN DRY SEASON OF

YEARS FROM 2011 TO 2013 AND ITS FORECASTING
OPERATIONS AT SOUTHERN REGIONAL
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL CENTER
Tran Dinh Phuong, Hoang Le Nhung
Southern Regional Hydrometeorological Center

Salinity intrusion plays an important role to Mekong Delta. It affects directly socio-
economic life of this region. In dry season, the Southern Regional Hydrometeological Center
conducts salinity forecasts serving production and life for Mekong Delta. This paper
analyzes salinity intrusion occurring in recent years, and assesses salinity forecasting
methods being used.

Tp 2: Thy vn - Ti nguyn nc, Bin, Mi trng 155