2.

M Hnh Mng PERT(Program Evaluation and

Review Technique)

2.1 Cc khi nim ca PERT

Mng PERT gip tr li cc cu hi:

D n s hon thnh khi no?

Mi hot ng ca d n nn c bt u vo thi im
no v kt thc vo thi im no?

Nhng hot ng no ca d n phi kt thc ng thi hn
trnh cho ton b d n b kt thc chm hn so vi k
hoch?

Liu c th chuyn cc ngun d tr (nhn lc, vt lc) t
cc hot ng khng gng sang cc hot ng gng (cc
hot ng phi hon thnh ng tin ) m khng nh hng
ti thi hn hon thnh d n?

Nhng hot ng no cn tp trung theo di?

i hc nng nghip H ni Bi ging Vn Tr Hc Phd. Trn c Qunh

 2. M Hnh Mng PERT

V d: Cho bng cc hot ng ca d n, th t v thi

gian thc hin
Hot ng Hot ng k trc Thi gian thc hin (tun)

A 2
B 2
C 2
D A 3
E A 4
F E 0 (hot ng gi)
G B 7
H B 6
I D, F 4
J C 10
K H, J 3
L G, I, K 4

i hc nng nghip H ni Bi ging Vn Tr Hc Phd. Trn c Qunh

 2. M Hnh Mng PERT

V s mng PERT nh sau:

i hc nng nghip H ni Bi ging Vn Tr Hc Phd. Trn c Qunh

 2. M Hnh Mng PERT

Xc nh thi gian ti thiu thc hin d n

xc nh thi gian ti thiu thc hin d n, trc ht
chng ta nghin cu khi nim thi im bt u sm nht v
thi im kt thc sm nht (EST v EFT Earliest start time
v Earliest finish time) cho tng hot ng.

V d 2: Hot ng A c ESTA = 0 v EFTA = 2, v
Thi im bt u sm nht l khi bt u khi ng d n,
Thi im kt thc sm nht l sau 2 tun.

Mi quan h gia EST v FFT l:
EFT = EST + thi gian thc hin hot ng.

i hc nng nghip H ni Bi ging Vn Tr Hc Phd. Trn c Qunh

 2. M Hnh Mng PERT

xc nh EST chng ta c quy tc thi im bt u

sm nht: thi im bt u sm nht ca mt hot
ng ri mt nt no l thi im mun nht trong cc
thi im kt thc sm nht i vi cc hot ng i vo
nt

i hc nng nghip H ni Bi ging Vn Tr Hc Phd. Trn c Qunh

 2. M Hnh Mng PERT

Bc tip theo l xc nh thi im bt u mun nht

v thi im kt thc mun nht (LST v LFT Latest
start time v Latest finish time) cho tng hot ng.

i hc nng nghip H ni Bi ging Vn Tr Hc Phd. Trn c Qunh

 2. M Hnh Mng PERT

Xc nh hot ng gng, ng gng

Hot ng gng l hot ng m

LST - EST = LFT - EFT = 0, hay [EST, EFT] [LST, LFT]

Slack = LST- EST=0

Slack =LFT EFT= 0 ( tr cho php bng 0).

Gii thch: Slack ni lng ( tr).

Trong v d ang xt, cc hot ng gng l: C J K L
v to thnh ng gng (Critical Path). V vy, phng php
mng PERT cn c tn l phng php ng gng (CPM
Critical Path Method).

Xc nh ng gng bng phn mm Lingo (t sv tm hiu)

i hc nng nghip H ni Bi ging Vn Tr Hc Phd. Trn c Qunh

 2. M Hnh Mng PERT

Thi gian thc hin tng hot ng ca d n ni chung

l mt lng bin ng kh d on trc, chng ta gi
thit chng l cc bin ngu nhin. Gi s ta c cc s liu
c tnh v thi gian thc hin cc hot ng ca d n a,
m, b.

Lc thi gian trung bnh v lch chun thi gian
thc hin cc hot ng cc tnh theo cng thc
t=(a+ 4m +b)/6

i hc nng nghip H ni Bi ging Vn Tr Hc Phd. Trn c Qunh

 2. M Hnh Mng PERT

i hc nng nghip H ni Bi ging Vn Tr Hc Phd. Trn c Qunh

 2. M Hnh Mng PERT

Bc tip theo l lp s mng cho d n vi cc thi

gian trung bnh t v tm ng gng. ng gng l C
J K L bao gm cc hot ng gng C, J, K v L.
Cc hot ng ny c tr cho php bng 0, hay ni
cch khc, khng cho php s chm tr no

Thi gian thc hin d n l mt lng ngu nhin tnh
theo cng thc: T = TC + TJ + TK + TL. Ta tm k vng
ca T (thi gian trung bnh thc hin d n) theo cng
thc: m = mT = tC + tJ + tK + tL = 2 + 10 + 3 + 4 = 19
(tun).

i hc nng nghip H ni Bi ging Vn Tr Hc Phd. Trn c Qunh

 2. M Hnh Mng PERT

Tnh lch chun ca thi gian thc hin d n:

Ta coi T l bin ngu nhin phn phi chun N(m=19; =3)

Ta tnh c
P(T <=21)=75% v P(T<=23=90%

i hc nng nghip H ni Bi ging Vn Tr Hc Phd. Trn c Qunh

 2. M Hnh Mng PERT

2.3. iu chnh d n khi k hoch mt s hot ng b

ph v
V d : i khi trong qu trnh thc hin d n, k hoch
ca mt s hot ng b ph v. Chnh v vy, khi pht
hin d n ang b chm so vi k hoch ra ta cn nh
li thi gian thc hin (thi gian rt gn) mt s hot
ng trong giai on ti. Xt cc d kin cho trong hnh
v bng di y

i hc nng nghip H ni Bi ging Vn Tr Hc Phd. Trn c Qunh

 2. M Hnh Mng PERT

i hc nng nghip H ni Bi ging Vn Tr Hc Phd. Trn c Qunh

 2. M Hnh Mng PERT

Sau khi c thi gian nh mc cho cc hot, d dng tm

c thi gian ti thiu cn thit hon thnh k hoch
l 16 (tun). Tuy nhin do yu cu mi, cn rt gn thi
gian hon thnh d n trong vng (khng vt qu) 10
(tun).

Mun vy ta thc hin cc im sau:
Tm thi gian ti thiu d nh thc hin d n (16 tun)
v tm ng gng.
c tnh thi gian rt gn ti a (ct 3).
Khi rt gn thi gian trn ng gng cng phi ch
trng ng thi cc cung ng khc.

i hc nng nghip H ni Bi ging Vn Tr Hc Phd. Trn c Qunh

 2. M Hnh Mng PERT

Ta thy cn thc hin A, C v E vi thi gian rt gn ti

a (4, 2, 4) tng cc thi gian thc hin cc hot ng
gng l 10 tun), ng thi rt gn cc hot ng B v D
mc cho php:

Phng n 1: rt bt thi gian thc hin hot ng B mt
tun v rt bt D mt tun.

Phng n 2: khng rt bt B v rt bt D hai tun.

Bi ton t ra l rt ngn d n nh th no chi ph
tng gi l nh nht?

i hc nng nghip H ni Bi ging Vn Tr Hc Phd. Trn c Qunh

 2. M Hnh Mng PERT

2.4. Tnh thi gian rt gn ti u bng phng php

n hnh (t nghin cu)
2.5. p dng mng PERT trong phn tch chi ph v
qun l ti chnh d n

V d : Chng ta xem xt d n vi cc d kin cho trong
bng v hnh di y. Tnh c thi gian ti thiu
hon thnh d n l 15 (thng) ?.

i hc nng nghip H ni Bi ging Vn Tr Hc Phd. Trn c Qunh

 2. M Hnh Mng PERT

i hc nng nghip H ni Bi ging Vn Tr Hc Phd. Trn c Qunh

 2. M Hnh Mng PERT

Nguyn tc iu hnh ti chnh mt d n l:

- Lung kinh ph phi c a vo dn dn sao cho p
ng c tin d n.
- Nu kinh ph a vo tha hoc thiu (theo tin ) th
phi kp thi iu chnh.
- Cn nm bt c: nhng hot ng no khng dng ht
kinh ph d kin, nhng hot ng no s dng kinh ph
nhiu hn d kin c s iu chnh thch hp.
- Cc bo co nh k cho php kim sot c d n v tin
v lung kinh ph.
i hc nng nghip H ni Bi ging Vn Tr Hc Phd. Trn c Qunh
Bng s liu cho gii ngn sm nht v mun nht

i hc nng nghip H ni Bi ging Vn Tr Hc Phd. Trn c Qunh

 2. M Hnh Mng PERT

Lp bng theo di kinh ph cho d n t thng 1 n thng

15

V th min kinh ph kh thi

i hc nng nghip H ni Bi ging Vn Tr Hc Phd. Trn c Qunh

 2. M Hnh Mng PERT

Tm tt:
Cc vn c bn cn gii quyt khi p dng phng php
PERT hay CPM trong theo di v nh gi d n l:
Xc nh c s mng PERT ca d n.
Tm c ng gng v cc hot ng gng.
Tnh c tin cy ng vi cc mc thi hn hon thnh
d n khi s liu l ngu nhin.
Bit cch iu chnh thi gian rt gn khi tin thc
hin d n l chm so vi k hoch.
Phn tch chi ph v iu hnh kinh ph d n.

i hc nng nghip H ni Bi ging Vn Tr Hc Phd. Trn c Qunh

 3. Mt S M Hnh Mng Khc

3.1 Bi ton cy khung ti thiu

V d: Mc cp truyn hnh trong khu vc dn c t trm
pht n c 7 h gia nh vi chi ph ng dy l b
nht. S khong cch t trm pht ti cc h gia nh
nh di y

i hc nng nghip H ni Bi ging Vn Tr Hc Phd. Trn c Qunh

 3.1 Bi ton cy khung ti thiu

Thut gii Prim

Bc khi to: Lp bng (ma trn) khong cch gia cc nt mng.
Trong bng trn, chn ct bt k (v d ct 1, tc l ta chn nt 1
bt u), gch b ct va chn ra khi bng.
Cc bc lp

Bc 1: nh du vo hng tng ng (hng cng ch s) vi ct
va chn. Trn cc hng c nh du tm c gi tr nh nht.

Bc 2: Chn ct tng ng vi va tm c (ct 3 biu din nt
chn mi, ghi cung ng va tm c 1 3), ri gch b n i
(gch b ct 3). Nu trong bng vn cn cc ct cha gch b ht
th quay v bc 1, nu tri li chuyn sang bc kt thc.

Bc kt thc. Nu tt c cc ct b gch b ht th dng vi tt
c cc cung ng lin thng tm c to nn cy khung ti thiu.

i hc nng nghip H ni Bi ging Vn Tr Hc Phd. Trn c Qunh

 3.1 Bi ton cy khung ti thiu

Kt thc thut gii prim ta thu c cy khung

1 3, 1 4, 1 7, 3 5, 5 6 v 7 2.

i hc nng nghip H ni Bi ging Vn Tr Hc Phd. Trn c Qunh

 3.2 Quy hoch ng

3.2. Bi ton tm ng i ngn nht v quy hoch ng

V d: Bi tontm ng i ngn nht.
C mt ngi i xut pht t nt 1 v kt thc hnh trnh
nt 10 theo hnh trnh nh hnh di y.

i hc nng nghip H ni Bi ging Vn Tr Hc Phd. Trn c Qunh

 3.2 Quy hoch ng

Nguyn tc ti u Bellman trong quy hoch ng

Chng ta chia bi ton thnh nhiu giai on, tc l thnh
nhiu bi ton nh. Ti mi giai on ta cn tm phng
n ti u l cc phng n tt nht ca tnh trng hin c,
xt trong mi quan h vi cc phng n ti u tm
c ca cc giai on trc.

Ta c th gii quyt bi ton dn theo tng giai on theo
cch tnh ton tin hoc tnh ton li (backward
computing)

i hc nng nghip H ni Bi ging Vn Tr Hc Phd. Trn c Qunh

 3.2 Quy hoch ng

Cc giai on tnh ton ca quy hoch ng

i hc nng nghip H ni Bi ging Vn Tr Hc Phd. Trn c Qunh

 3.2 Quy hoch ng

Quy trnh tnh ton tng qut

- Trc ht, cn chn c cc bin trng thi (state
variables) nh m t trong bng
- Xc nh hm mc tiu: t Fi(xi) l khong cch ngn
nht ti ch tnh ti giai on i
- Lp hm truy ton: Fi+1(xi+1) = Min [Fi(xi) + fi(ui)], Min
tm theo mi t hp thch hp xi v ui, trong ui l bin
iu khin iu khin chuyn trng thi t trng thi xi
sang xi+1 v fi(ui) l hiu ng ca bin iu khin tc ng
ln hm truy ton (v ln hm mc tiu, nu tnh n bi
ton cui cng)

i hc nng nghip H ni Bi ging Vn Tr Hc Phd. Trn c Qunh

 3.2 Quy hoch ng

Bng cc bin trng thi

i hc nng nghip H ni Bi ging Vn Tr Hc Phd. Trn c Qunh

 3.2 Quy hoch ng

i hc nng nghip H ni Bi ging Vn Tr Hc Phd. Trn c Qunh

 3.2 Quy hoch ng

i hc nng nghip H ni Bi ging Vn Tr Hc Phd. Trn c Qunh

 3.2 Quy hoch ng

p s: F4(x4) = F4(1) = 650 vi ng i ngn nht

Mt s ng dng ca Quy hoch ng (xem gio trnh)

i hc nng nghip H ni Bi ging Vn Tr Hc Phd. Trn c Qunh

 Thut ton Dijkstra tm ng i ngn nht

Nhc li Bi ton:
Cho G = (V, E) n, lin thng, c trng s dng (w(u,v) > 0 vi
mi u khc v). Tm ng i ngn nht t u0 n v v tnh khong
cch d(u0,v).

Phng php:
Xc nh tun t cc nh c khong cch n u0 t nh n ln.
Trc tin nh c khong cch nh nht n u0 l u0.
Trong V\{u0} tm nh c khong cch n u0 nh nht (nh ny phi
l mt trong cc nh k vi u0), gi s l u1.
Trong V\{u0, u1} tm nh c khong cch n u0 nh nht (nh ny
phi l mt trong cc nh k vi u0 hoc u1), gi s l u2.
Tip tc nh trn cho n bao gi tm c khong cch t u0 n mi
nh.
Nu G c n nh th: 0 = d(u0,u0) < d(u0,u1) d(u0,u2) d(u0,un-1)

i hc nng nghip H ni Bi ging Vn Tr Hc Phd. Trn c Qunh

 Thut ton Dijkstra

Thut ton Dijkstra
Bc1:
i := 0
S := V\{u0}
L(u0) := 0
Vi mi v S, L(v) := v c nh du bi (,-)
Nu n = 1 th xut d(u0,u0) = 0 = L(u0)
Bc 2:
Vi mi v S v k vi ui (nu th c hng th v l nh sau ca ui),
L(v) := min{L(v), L(ui) + w(uiv)}
Xc nh k := min{L(v), v S}
Nu k = L(vj) th xut d(u0,vj) = k v nh du vj bi (L(vj),ui)
ui+1 := vj
S := S\{ui+1}
Bc 3:
i := i + 1
Nu i = n - 1 th kt thc, nu khng th quay li Bc 2.

i hc nng nghip H ni Bi ging Vn Tr Hc Phd. Trn c Qunh

 3.4 Bi Ton Tm Lung Cc i

V d: Xt mng ng i c hng t nt 1 ti nt 5 vi
cc ti nng ti a ca cc cung ng bit nh hnh
di. Bi ton t ra l: Cn xc nh c lung cc i
(Maximal Flow) gia nt 1 (nt ngun) v nt 5 (nt ht).

i hc nng nghip H ni Bi ging Vn Tr Hc Phd. Trn c Qunh

 3.4 Bi Ton Tm Lung Cc i

V mt ton hc, ta gi mt lung chp nhn c l mt

vc t (x12, x13, x14, x24, x25, x34, x35, x45), xij [ 0, xij max]
cung (i, j) cho trn mng ng i c hng v tho mn:

mt nt bt k th lung vo v ra l cn bng.

Lung ra nt ngun bng lung vo nt ch v bng
v. Lc ny, mt lung cc i l mt lung chp nhn
c sao cho gi tr v ca lung t c l ln nht

i hc nng nghip H ni Bi ging Vn Tr Hc Phd. Trn c Qunh

 3.4 Bi Ton Tm Lung Cc i

Thut ton Ford Fulkerson

Bc khi to. Tm mt lung chp nhn c.

Cc bc lp.
Bc 1: Tm mt ng tng lung bng th tc nh du. Nu
khng c th chuyn v bc kt thc. Cn nu c th xt gi
tr tng lung tng ng (P).
Bc 2: Nu (P) < + th y thm (P) n v ti nng dc
theo ng tnglung P c lung chp nhn c mi
ri quay v bc 1. Nu tri li, (P) = + th v bc kt
thc.
Bc kt thc. Tm lung cc i vi gi tr hu hn hoc kt
lun bi ton c lung chp nhn c vi gi tr v = + .
Lm sao tm lung tng?

i hc nng nghip H ni Bi ging Vn Tr Hc Phd. Trn c Qunh

 3.4 Bi Ton Tm Lung Cc i

Th tc nh du

Bc khi to. Gi I l tp nt c nh du I, ban u t I = {nt
ngun}.

Cc bc lp.
Bc 1: Nu I cha nt ht hoc I = th v bc kt thc. Nu tri li,
chn nt bt k i I qut (ng thi a n ra khi tp I), tc l xt tt
c cc nt j cnh i, ni cch khc, xt mi cung tin c dng (i, j) l cung
trn mng ng i mt chiu cho v tng ng vi n l cung li (j,i).
Bc 2: Xt cc cung tin (i, j) m c j cha c nh du (khng nm
trong tp I) th ta a j vo tp I vi iu kin xij (hin c) < max xij , cn
nu xt cc cung li th iu kin l xij (hin c) > 0 v quay tr li
bc 1. Ch mt khi nt ht c a vo tp I th cng v ngay bc
kt thc.

Bc kt thc. Tm ng tng lung P

i hc nng nghip H ni Bi ging Vn Tr Hc Phd. Trn c Qunh

 3.4 Bi Ton Tm Lung Cc i

i hc nng nghip H ni Bi ging Vn Tr Hc Phd. Trn c Qunh