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    Walmart Predictive Patterns Patent doc

    Copyright:

    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as PDF or read online from Scribd
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    29 views9 pages

    Predictive Pattern Profile Process (Wal-Mart Stores)

    Uploaded by

    Boby Joseph
    Walmart Predictive Patterns Patent doc

    Copyright:

    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as PDF or read online from Scribd
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    cu») United States c2) Patent Application Publica High et al. (54) PREDICTIVE PATTERN PROFILE PROCESS oy Applicant: Wal-Mart Stores, Ine, Bentonville, AR ws) Inveators: Donald High, Noel, MO (US); Michael Atehley Springdale, AR (US) Jennifer Stegemoller, Pea Ridge, AR (US) (21) Appl. Nos 14707628 (22) Filed: May 8, 2015 Related U.S. Application Data (60) Provisional application No, 61/991,143, filed on May 9.2014. US 2015032470281 iON (10) Pub. No.: US 2015/0324702 Al (43) Pub, Date Nov. 12, 2015 ublication Classification (1) neck GON 5704 2006.01) (2) US.CL fd GOBN $/047 (201301) on ABSTRACT A system and method for providing a prediction is disclosed A series of historical data or profile ae collected and stored ‘ona database, Using sofware to provide ft set of predic- tive patiers from the historical profiles and a second set of predictive patters from the fis set of predictive pattems froma ‘which the predietion fora particular subjet such as sales ean be provided [PREDICTIVE PATTERN 16 12 PREDICTIVE < PATTERNS [| repository 8 SI FORECASTING) PREDICTIVE PATTERN eee "ANALYTIC PROFILES ENGINE, SOFTWARE sie PREDICTIVE PATTER L106 a FORECARTING TEAM. PREDICTINE PATTERNS REPOSITORY 118 i FORECASTING] 7 ANALYTIC. i SOFTWARE 06 128 EXECUTIVE 128 PREDICTIVE PATTERN DISTRIBUTION ENGINE 120 ‘GRANNOLAR LEVEL PATTERN US 2015/0324702 AI Nov. 12, 2015 Sheet 1 of 3 Patent Application Publication wh L-Old 2NLNORXS 9 ca NWALIVd TBAT UV INNES 307 wr BYYNLIOS aNioNa NONERULSIO ‘ULATHNY aa NwaLivd sU9IORd | fnusvoauog Reuse ar AYOLISOdSY SNuaLIvd BAULOIGRYS zy wr Or NYALIVd BALLOIORYe FT SRVNLIOS a BNIONA STIIOUd OMLATNY NUBLIVd SAUOIGRYd)—[ONILSVORNIOS ee RYOUSOGTY SNYALLWd BNULOIGRYd or NYALLVd 3AUSIOBd Patent Application Publication Nov. 12, 2015. Sheet 2 of 3 US 2015/0324702 AI Percentage Data for Hourly Profile Pattern by Day of the Week 037% 0.34% 0.24% 1.495% 055% 0.36% 0.72% 0.25% 0.15% 0.20% 0.53% 0.13% 059% 0.07% 011% 0.07% 0.43% 0.46% 011% 019% 0.15% 0.22% 1.06% 0.06% 0.69% 0.12% 0.35% 0.16% O10% 306% G.o7% 0.13% 017% 0.49% 0.18% 0.13% 0.07% 0.24% 0.09% 139% 0.14% 0.10% 033% 0.18% 0.15% 045m 036% 0.22% 0159% 100% 0.71% 0.57% — 2.36% 0.08% 0.96% 0.52% 136%" 4.04% 2.42% 4.44% 1.09% 187% 188% 3.80% 0.12% 5.07% 7.48% 550% 3.22% 3.60% 565% 4.23% 7.58% 5.30% 2108% 4.81% 6.65% 8.69% 12.73% 5.94% 11.19% 977% = ATT — 4.42% BE7% 940% 9.77% 4.1% aign% 928% A4.26% 7.03% 6.99% 6.08% 14.43% 11.40% 4.88% 6.00% 11.02%" 11.91% 453% 0.37% 5.37% 11.18%) 12.35% 9.29% 7.74% 10.07% = 4.76% 775% 11.49% 4.42% 638% 11.85% 4.66% 071% 10.60% 5.77% 4.26% 12.01% 5.96% 12.71% 3.88% «12.67% «15.35% 3.42% 434% 12.03% 12.70% 15.17% 6.28% 5.59% 8.57% 9.12% 1.51% 6.31% 5.49% 5.44% 11.17% 6.24% 227% 750% 2.88% 4.91% 719% 152%" 20.55% 5.11% 0.01% 5.14% 1.36% 118% 1.08% 1.24% 1.63%" 2.92% 1.58% 2.20% 335% | 3.35% 9.46% 0.83% 0.42% 1.49% _ 0.77% 0.78% 0.67% _ 3.65% 200 FIG. 2 Patent Application Publication Nov. 12, 2015. Sheet 3 of 3 US 2015/0324702 AI an 302 HISTORICAL, FACTS. TAKE HISTORY AND MAKE PREDICTIONS 306 FORECAST |~ PREDICTIONS PREDICTIONS AND MAKE PATTERNS 116 PREDICTIVE |[~“ >) PATTERN 310 INPUT SELECTION CRITERIA FOR FUTURE ‘CREATE FUTURE PREDICTIONS FROM PATTERNS AND HISTORICAL | FACTS BASED UPON SELECTION CRITERIA, PREDICTIONS |» 34 GRANULAR [~/ EVEL PATTERN FIG. 3 ‘VIEW FUTURE PREDICTIONS US 2015/0324702 Al PREDICTIVE PATTERN PROFILE PROCESS RELATED APPLICATION 10001] This application claims priority to U.S. Provisional Pateat Application No, 61/991, 143, eaitled “Predictive Pat- tern Profile Process”, filed May 9, 3014. The contents of the above-relerenced application are herein incorporated by ref ‘erence in their entirely FIELD OF THE INVENTION 10002] Thepresent invention relates generally to predictive pattem profile. More particularly, the present invention felates to predictive pattem profiles that are more accurate ‘ad takes ess storage spoce, BACKGROUND OF THE INVENTION 10003] Predictive Pater Profile isthe process of breaking ‘down forecast estimate into any dimensional pattern. The ‘dimensional pattem could be by date, hou, item, losation, ‘departaent, son, division, and the lke, Forecasting allows, ‘operation management to match supply with potential eus- tomer demands, Forecast modeling has been used in acoual- ing t0 provide cash management, finance to predict equip- ‘ment replacement needs, and in operations to predict work assignments and workloads, 10003) "Forecasting is very important to supply chains and listibution inorder to prevent shortages or excesses, which ‘can cause miss deliveries, poor customer service, and work dliseuptions. Accordingly, itis dosirable to provide aceurate and timely predictive pattem profiles so that operations man- fagement can propery allocate the resourees to mest any potential spike in demands or adjust to decrease in demands based on certain factors such as seasons or other market forces. SUMMARY OP THE INVENTION 10005] The foregoing needs aremet, toa great extent, by the present invent, wherein in one aspect a apparatus is pro- Vided that in some embodiments includes & non-trnsient ‘computer readable medium containing program instructions Tor causing computer perform the metho of collecting @ firsthistoricl profile fora desired subjoct, creating forecast forthe desired subject based on the fst historical prole ‘creating first set of predictive pattems based on the created Torecast, discarding the Fist historical profile once the Fist set ‘of predictive pattems for the desired subject are created, receiving request fora predictionof the desired subject, and ‘creating a second set of predictive patterns forthe desired subject asedon the frst set of predictivepatters to erate the prediction. 10006] In accordance with another embodiment of the present invention, amethod of forecasting ofadesired subject Js provided and includes the steps of eollecting a frst histoi- cal profile for the desired subject from a database stored ona ‘computing device, reating, wih a processor ofthe compute Ing device, a forecast for the desired subjoct based onthe fst historical profil, creating, withthe processor ofthe comput- ing dovie, a first set of predictive patterns based on the ‘create forecast, discanting the fisthistorical profile from the database once the first set of predictivepattems forthe desired subject are created, receiving a request fora prediction ofthe desired subject, and erating, withthe processor ofthe m= puting device, a second set of predictive pattems for the Nov. 12, 2015 desired subject based on the fist set of predictive patterns to ‘reat the prediction and an updated fist historical profile [0007] In accordance with another embodiment of the present invention, computing device that provides aprec- tion that inckades a processor in communication with a memory, a database having a fist historical profile for a sired subject and being stored on the memory wherein the processor performs the following steps of ereating a forecast for the desired subject based on the first historical profile, creating fist set of predictive patterns based on the created Torecas, discarding the first historieal profile Irom the data- ‘ase once the frst set of preitive pattems for tho desired subject are created, receiving a request fra prediction of the desired subject, and creating, with the processor ofthe com- pring device, a sccond set of predictive pattems for the Sesired subject based on the fist st of predictive patterns 0 ‘reat the prediction and an updated fist historical profile [0008] There has thus becn outlined rather broadly, ceiain ‘embodiments of the invention in onder that the detailed description thereof herein may be better understood, and in ‘order that the present contribution to the art may be beter Appreciated. There are, of course, atonal embodiments of the invention that will be deseribed below and which will {orm the subject matter of the claims appended hereto, [0009] In this respect, before explaining at least one ‘embodiment of the invention in detail, iti to be understood ‘thatthe invention snot imited in its application to the details ‘ofeonstmicton and to the arrangements the components et {orth in the following description or illustrated inthe draw ‘ngs. The invention is capable of embodiments in addition to those described and of being practiced and carried out in various ways. Aso, ts tobe understood that the phraseology and terminology employed herein, as wellas the absiret, are {or the purpose of deserption and should not be regarded as limiting. [0010] As such, those skilled inthe art will appreciate that the conception upon which this diselosure is based may eu be ullized asa basis forthe designing of othe stuc- tres, methods and systems for carrying out the several pur poset ofthe present invention. [is important, daeefore, that ‘he claims e rogardeas inching sich oquivalent constrne- tions insofar as they do not depart from thespiritand seope of the present invention. BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS, [0011] FIG. 1 is a forecasting system according w an embodiment of the iavention, [0012] FIG. 2 illustrates an exemplary percentage data hourly profile according to embodiment ofthe invention, [0013] FIG. 3 illustrates a method that provides proietive pattems according to an embodiment ofthe invention, DETAILED DESCRIPTION [0014] The invention will now be desribed with reference ‘othe drawing figures, in which like reference numerals refer to like parts throughont. An embodiment in accontance with the present invention provides a system that ean dynamically szencrite predictive patterns for varity of uses such as pre- ‘ictng sales, cash low, potential customer claims, fees 36s0- ciated with third-party services, warranty, etums, energy. supplies, et. [015] "Anembodiment ofa forseasting system 100s illas- ‘rated i FIG. 1 Forecasting team 102 ean include one person US 2015/0324702 Al ‘ora group of persons that specializes in forecasting various subjects, such as sales, inventory, behavior, weather, stocks, purchases, deliveries, elections, spread of diseases and other Subjects. A computing device 104, sueh as a compute, note- book or tablet can be used to acess a remote computer oF server 112. Aliematively, forecasting team 102 can directly access server 112 witha user input that isciretly orindiretly ‘connected tothe server 112. Computing device 1M inclides {information that has been transfered from the various data- bases 108, 110. Altematively, the databases 108, 110 are ‘connectedto server 12. The information from databases 108, 110can be accessed remotely viaa wired or wireless connec” tion othe databases ean be stored on computing device 104 ‘and/or server 112. 10016] The databases 108, 110 may con sales, cashflow, customer claims, foes as party serviees, warranty, returns, energy usage, supplies, ten- ‘dor types, cash on hand, shrink (difference berween actual pliysical inventory and computer inventor), computer usage, ‘tc. Ry mining this data, operations manager can make better ‘decisions on a variety of subjects for the company. The data ‘ean range from previously collected data (bstricl) to cur rently collected data or realtime data, [0017] As stores may accept different types of tender Including creditcard, debitearis, checks, cash, coupons, gift ‘cards, food stamps, employee pay ears, electronic cash Bitcoin, PryPal) and the ike. By having accurate tender type {oreeas information, the company can better predict the foes associated with various tender types, how sell the dilfeent tender types are performing, and have only the necessary amount of eas on hand for & given time period (eek, day, hour, ot). Fach tonder type could be assigned a cenain percent and categorizedby day, by site, or by hour that ould then be used to ealctlate or erete the forecast at any level ‘within the company, such as store, region, division, of even, total company. Purlier, depending on when the fords from the various tender ae predicted be eveived, the company ‘ean device when to invest the funds or when pay down debt [0018] Often times, a store is changed for ert cant pro- ‘cessing foes or debit procesting fees based on the number oF ‘amount of transactions that were processed during a cert time period, such a daily, weekly, monthly or yearly. By predicting the amount including volume of tansoetions fora ‘ziven period, the company can potentially negotiate better Fates on the fees based on either total amounts oF total volume ‘of various transactions. 10019] The siore change fund isthe amount of eash that & sore needs to have on hand to perform their business for @ given day. Too much cash inthe store means the cash is not being used to provide the most benefit tothe company since it ‘could be used to invest oF pay down debt. Too litle cash tans the store canot perform their business because they ‘don't have the funds available for payroll, check cashing, petty eas, or providing cash back on other transactions to their customers. The store's change fund varies by day and by _denoiination needed inthe store. Each cash register routes ‘certain amount of eash of specifie denominations tobe able to provide change and cash back to customers. Fach denomi- nation could be assigned a percentage ofthe total number of transactions that are required for that particular denomination to complete the transaction by repster, by store, of by hour. 0020] Shrink s the difference heween the physical inven- tory on hand and the merchandise that sreportel a available jn the system, This may result from thet, damages! goods, Nov. 12, 2015 wise. Bach store noes 1 eran periods of ine, sch as month, quarter, season, or year, Fach prouet could be ‘signed a percentage By store oF by dy thl wouldallo for better forecasting of shrink {0021} Customer claims are filed when acustomerhas been injured within the premises ofa store, such as sipping or provided incomest medication. Hach type of claims ean be {bsigned a pereeataye by store orby department tha coukl be ‘edt prot costomerclaims. This allows forproper insur !ncocaverageto be pease haseon the foeeeast aims forthe soe {0022} Mainframe used is measured in MIPS (Millions of Instructions per Second, which has ests associate with it MIPS ean be purchased your or more in advance based ona 4 our average of peak usage. New projets or upgrades to cemputee systems that wil consume MIPS are estinsted and aukedothecurent usage andused to calelatetheamount of ‘MIDS datncads tobe purchased IFMIPS usage was assigned 4 percentage for each hour of the year, loreasis could be enerted hat woul show theeureat peaks and where teans ould apply efoto reduce MIPS usage and thus, decrease the amt of MIPS that aces to be purchased {0023} "The data from databases 108,110 can be fed into {orecasting analytic software 106, which converts the data to foyecst results by computing device 104. The Forecasting analytic software 106 cin be stored on a memory ofthe computing device or remotely. Then the forecast results can befidintoaprodictive pattems profiles engine 11 thatcanse ‘aris software modules t create pater profiles, such as. 9 Tistsetorpredivtvepaters 16-Stepsusel io eee test set of proictve pattems 116 can inlode detemining the purpose of the forecast, defining time period using the pprpriate data or dat points, using the appropriate snd relevant foreasting ecnigues, creating the patterns, 0 toring the scl pattems for accuse, and adjusting aceon inal: (0024) Forecasting can inchde qualitative andor quanitar Sve data, Qualitative dat allows for human factor sch as Inuehes, and feetings while quantitative data is objective or ‘ard data. Other tecinigues tht can be sed With Bistrial data inte inear regression analysis and various averaging tecinigues suchas moving avenge, weighted moving aver age and exponential smoothing. The averoging techniques allo foestocthingof peaks ad valleysthat acer nthe ta an tend to remove random vadations that coeur. Movin verge ube a umber of recat actual values, and can be Updated as new valves of data points become availble Weighted moving averages are similar w moving averages but assign more weight fo the most recent vale na series. Exponential smoothing uses previous forecasts pls a per eatage of te forecast emo. (0025) Sil other techniques tht could be sed to forscst Jnchie trend forwastng using tend equation (linear rend quation) andor endadjustedexponcatal smoathing or ed torecurting events sich 3 seasonal variations and eyes. The cxtmples of techniques described rein are ot meant to Be Timitng and the techniques canbe sed hy self on come bination with eachother These examples of forecssting tech. niques can be stored on aa intemal memory of computing device 104 or server 112, o nan external memory (attached orremot) (0026) Once the st set of predictive pattems 116 re gene erated, they eam be stored on predictive patterns repository US 2015/0324702 Al 118 on server 112, Like the forecasting teclaniques, the pre- dictive pattems repository 118 can be stored on an intemal memory of the server 112, computing device 104 or in an ‘extemal memory (attached or remote). 10027] The frst set of predictive patterns 116 can inelude dimensional pattern such as date, hour item, fine line, depaet- ‘ment, store, and division. Thus, each day of the week, each hour ofthe day can includea profile or pattern of sles, visits, scans, umber of cashiers, andl her setvities. The fist et oF predictive pattems 116 ean be eapred to any granlar evel ‘desired by the user and can represent the percentage of the amount for that time period of dimension. The first sct of predictive pattems 116 ot Kmited to time and dae but msty be built based upon any dimensions such as who, what, where, when, how aad the lke including vendors, items oF ‘can even be based on hierarchy. The fist set of predictive patterns 116s stored and reused 2s needed andl can be stored ‘in realy identifiable manner. 10028] "In one embodiment, the data stored in the database 108, 110 is continuously and dynamically updated with the existe datapoints, However, once the fist set of predictive patlems 116 is generated, the data that was use to create the fint set of predictive pattems 116 may be discarded or deleted. Thisallows for even moredatato beused to ereatethe first set of predictive patterns 116 but also decrease the amount of storage needed fr the database 108, 110 as vast ‘amounts of data eat be needed to create the first set of pre= dictve pattems 116, Further, as new pattems are generated they will dynamically replace old ones thereby improving the ‘orecasting. 10029] In other embodiments, the frst set of predictive pattems 116 ay'be created if they ar 5% different fom each biher, Aditioglly if to oF more patterns ate within 95% of ‘each other, then one would be discarded. That is, if two pallems are 98% similar to cach other in dat, den data from the first pattem wll beassimilated into thesscand pater and the first patter is deleted. reference ean be made thatthe ‘information of the first patter is now inthe second pattern. Further it may not be necessary to reat all possible patterns but ereate patterns when a now pattern wold be more than atstially 58% different from ‘an existing patter These ‘embovdiments can save storage space and costs every pat= teen does not have to be generated 10030] | Once te frst set of predictive patterns 116 as been ‘created and stored, ational manipulation of the forecast ‘can oocur. At this point, the previous data that was used to make the frst set of predictive pattems 116 can be deleted 10 savestorage space. Theft set of predictive pattems 116 cua be dynamically updated as addtional data becomes available ‘and stored in databases 108, 110. The forecasting team 102 ‘can at tis point create addtional pattems ora second set of predictive pattems 122 based on the frst set of predictive pattems 116, The second set of predictive patterns 116 can be ‘generated and stored on prictve pattems repository 118 or ‘can be generated when requested. be ereation ofthe fist set ‘of predictive pattems 116 required heavy processing povver and memory, potentially using multiple servers and signifi ‘cant investments of ime from hours daysto weeks depend Jing onthe mumber of datapoints utilize. 10031] The creation ofthe second set of predictive pattems 122 should take considerably less time and processing power ‘8 the data points (the fist set of pattems) should be signifi- ‘cantly less. The second set of protictve pattems 122 can be tenerated using the same or similar forecasting techniques Nov. 12, 2015 that generated the fist set of predictive pattems 116. That the fist staf predictive patterns 116 ar fd into the vaio Torecasting techniques 1 generate a higher level of forcast resulls, which is then fed into the predictive pattern distibu- ‘ion engine 120 to generate the second set of predictive pat- tems 122. The second set of predictive paterns 122 ca be stored in the predictive pattems repository 118 for later retrieval. It shold be noted thatthe forecasting technique(s) don'thaveto be the same ones utilized tcteate the frst set of predictive patters 116 in order to ereste the second set of predictive pattems 122. The creation of the second set of predictive pattems 122 can be done on the ly or as requested. Additionally, the second set of prodictive pattems 122 can be ‘genenited using Use predictive patter profiles eagine 114 loos) Aa patterns repository 118, The ‘granular level pattems 124 ean include information abot purchased (male, female, parent, ee), what item (candy. paper towels, etc), where store, division region, ec), when ute, ec.) how (cash, credit, check, et) [0033 ‘and second predictive patterns 116, 122 can be positioned in the predictive patters repository 118 using various position- ing andor hierarchy schemes depending on the desired infor- ‘mation, The granular level pattems 124 can be stored hierar The granular level pattems 124 and any of the ist chically for example, going from top to bottom, by county, by region, by store, by department, by product, by product code, te. Tis allows for the desired predictive pate to be easly identified, etieved and manipulated or easily drilled down a desired. The granular level patterns 124 may be positioned horizontally for additional manipulation [034] Once the granular level patteras 124 are generated (cither previously or upon request), they are available for use to create requested forecasts At this point, an executive 126 ‘ean request a prediction as to the numberof Parent's Choice (Giapees), a Wal-Mart product that willbe sold inthe second {quarter of 2017 as she is negotiating logistics contracts or Suppliers’ agroement in order to maintain curent pricing levels. The ganar level pattems 124 canbe use to provide the requested forecast for Parent's Choice. The requested {orecast ean be viewed on a display 128 by the executive 126 andor the forecasting team 102. As many granular level pattems 124 or combinations thereof can be generated as equested by the executive 126 oF the forecasting team 102 Additionally, the granular level patterns 124 ean be generated relatively quickly so tat business decisions ean be made i a timely manner. [0035] FIG. 2illastates « percentage data hourly profile 200 according to embodiment of the invention. Profile 200 ithisttates an example of pereentage data for hourly pofileby ay of the Week and is also known as historical profile a it includes historical data. Profile 200, for example, can be percentage data forcertain typeof eredittranssetion, sles for & particular item, number of people entering the store, the amount of electricity used, the number of bags used, or any ‘other subject matter desired by the user. Profile 200 can also be chanterized various ways, sue as percentage data related to seasonal, monthly. yearly holiday, daily. and any other types of profile desired by the user. Profile 200 can be stored in database 108, 110. Thus, prile 200, for example ‘an include information sich s electricity usage forthe store US 2015/0324702 Al ‘or division by each hour, each day, each week, each month, ‘each quarter, each season, each year, and the like-This allows, ‘oumber of data points in onder (0 create aeeurate ive patterns 116, 122 10036] FIG. 3 illustrates « method 300 that provides pre-

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