Professional Documents
Culture Documents
15 July 2010
104 104
102 102
100 100
Index 100 = 22008:1
96 96
94 94
92 92
90 90
88 88
04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
Exports increase strongly
• Following the sharp decline in exports in late 2008 and early 2009,
exports to Asia and China in particular have recovered much of
the ground lost.
• We expect that
h exports willll go on increasing d driven b
by the
h recovery in Asia b
but
at a lower rate. The export sector will still be important for the Japanese
economy.
Sharp increase in industrial production
• The
h industrial
d l production
d h
has increased
d markedly
k dl since earlyl 2009,
but it is still somewhat lower than the pre-crisis level.
• Industrial sales have outgrown production for a long time, which has caused a
significant decline in stocks.
stocks This is not sustainable in the long term,
term and since
the important stock-to-sales ratio has normalised, the positive effect from
stocks is fading away.
• We expect the industrial production to increase more moderately from the
current level.
Strong growth in private
consumption expected to moderate
• Private consumption has increased markedly in recent quarters
supported by various government initiatives.
• p g, but on a small scale yet,
The labour market is improving, y , and we do not
expect to see a sharp increase in employment.
• Wage increases have just reached positive territory, so real wage growth is
not negative any longer.
The labour market is improving
• Unemployment has fallen since it peaked - although it has increased
again in the past two months.
• The number of job postings has increased and the job-per-applicant ratio is
g o ing etc.
growing, etc In addition,
addition wage
age inc
increases
eases have
ha e changed from
f om a negative
negati e to a
positive figure. This will usually support private consumption, but it is still highly
uncertain whether the improvement will be solid enough to lift private consumption.
• There is a risk of a very
y slow improvement
p in employment,
p y , because employment
p y
has fallen much less than has production. Hence, the risk of a jobless recovery is
great, which increases the risk that private consumption will not contribute much to
the recovery.
Record-low investment rate
• Investment has pulled down GDP significantly. However, after
the investment rate has fallen to a record-low level, there are
signs now that businesses have slowly started to increase investments.
• We expect that investment will start to pick up in the second half of 2010.
Deflation is here to stay
• Due to the deep recession, there are still many idle resources in
the economy, which will put a downward pressure on prices.
• The pressure will abate gradually, but we do not expect positive inflation until late
2011.
• Since the Bank of Japan will not start to normalise the monetary policy until the
period of deflation is over, interest rates will not be raised until 2012 at the
earliest.
earliest
Index
N
The public purse is suffering
• The deep recession has squeezed the public finances further. For
the period ahead, demographic factors will cause the prospects to
deteriorate further, because the total population in 2050 will have fallen
by one third while the number of elderly citizens will have increased.
• The process of restoring the public finances will put a damper on the
growth prospects.
120
110
100
90
% of GDP
80
Num
70
60
50
40
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Conflicts of interest
J k Bank
Jyske B k has
h prepared d procedures
d t preventt and
to d preclude
l d conflicts
fli t off interest
i t t thus
th ensuring
i th t analyses
that l
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