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  • Bayesian Inference of Local Geomagnetic Secular Variation Curves: Application To Archaeomagnetism

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    James Young
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    The errors that occur at different stages of the archaeomagnetic calibration process are combined using a Bayesian hierarchical modelling. The archaeomagnetic data obtained from archaeological structures such as hearths, kilns or sets of bricks and tiles, exhibit considerable experimental errors and are generally more or less well dated by archaeological context, history or chronometric methods (14C, TL, dendrochronology, etc.). They can also be as- sociated with stratigraphic observations which provide prior relative chronological information. The modelling we propose allows all these observations and errors to be linked together thanks to appropriate prior probability densi- ties. The model also includes penalized cubic splines for estimating the univariate, spherical or three-dimensional curves for the secular variation of the geomagnetic field (inclination, declination, intensity) over time at a local place. The mean smooth curve we obtain, with its posterior Bayesian envelop provides an adaptation to the effects of variability in the density of reference points over time. Moreover, the hierarchical modelling also allows an effi- cient way to penalize outliers automatically. With this new posterior estimate of the curve, the Bayesian statistical framework then allows to estimate the calendar dates of undated archaeological features (such as kilns) based on one, two or three geomagnetic parameters (inclination, declination and/or intensity). Date estimates are presented in the same way as those that arise from radiocarbon dating. In order to illustrate the model and the inference method used, we will present results based on French, Bulgarian and Austrian datasets recently published.

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    Bayesian inference of local geomagnetic secular variation curves: application to archaeomagnetism

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    The errors that occur at different stages of the archaeomagnetic calibration process are combined using a Bayesian hierarchical modelling. The archaeomagnetic data obtained from archaeological structures such as hearths, kilns or sets of bricks and tiles, exhibit considerable experimental errors and are generally more or less well dated by archaeological context, history or chronometric methods (14C, TL, dendrochronology, etc.). They can also be as- sociated with stratigraphic observations which provide prior relative chronological information. The modelling we propose allows all these observations and errors to be linked together thanks to appropriate prior probability densi- ties. The model also includes penalized cubic splines for estimating the univariate, spherical or three-dimensional curves for the secular variation of the geomagnetic field (inclination, declination, intensity) over time at a local place. The mean smooth curve we obtain, with its posterior Bayesian envelop provides an adaptation to the effects of variability in the density of reference points over time. Moreover, the hierarchical modelling also allows an effi- cient way to penalize outliers automatically. With this new posterior estimate of the curve, the Bayesian statistical framework then allows to estimate the calendar dates of undated archaeological features (such as kilns) based on one, two or three geomagnetic parameters (inclination, declination and/or intensity). Date estimates are presented in the same way as those that arise from radiocarbon dating. In order to illustrate the model and the inference method used, we will present results based on French, Bulgarian and Austrian datasets recently published.

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    Bayesian Inference of Local Geomagnetic Secular Variation Curves: Application To Archaeomagnetism

    Uploaded by

    James Young
    The errors that occur at different stages of the archaeomagnetic calibration process are combined using a Bayesian hierarchical modelling. The archaeomagnetic data obtained from archaeological structures such as hearths, kilns or sets of bricks and tiles, exhibit considerable experimental errors and are generally more or less well dated by archaeological context, history or chronometric methods (14C, TL, dendrochronology, etc.). They can also be as- sociated with stratigraphic observations which provide prior relative chronological information. The modelling we propose allows all these observations and errors to be linked together thanks to appropriate prior probability densi- ties. The model also includes penalized cubic splines for estimating the univariate, spherical or three-dimensional curves for the secular variation of the geomagnetic field (inclination, declination, intensity) over time at a local place. The mean smooth curve we obtain, with its posterior Bayesian envelop provides an adaptation to the effects of variability in the density of reference points over time. Moreover, the hierarchical modelling also allows an effi- cient way to penalize outliers automatically. With this new posterior estimate of the curve, the Bayesian statistical framework then allows to estimate the calendar dates of undated archaeological features (such as kilns) based on one, two or three geomagnetic parameters (inclination, declination and/or intensity). Date estimates are presented in the same way as those that arise from radiocarbon dating. In order to illustrate the model and the inference method used, we will present results based on French, Bulgarian and Austrian datasets recently published.

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    of 1

    Geophysical Research Abstracts

    Vol. 16, EGU2014-9235-2, 2014


    EGU General Assembly 2014
    Author(s) 2014. CC Attribution 3.0 License.

    Bayesian inference of local geomagnetic secular variation curves:


    application to archaeomagnetism
    Philippe LANOS
    CNRS UMR 5060 IRAMAT and UMR 6118 Geosciences-Rennes, Laboratory of archaeomagnetism, RENNES, France
    (philippe.lanos@univ-rennes1.fr)

    The errors that occur at different stages of the archaeomagnetic calibration process are combined using a Bayesian
    hierarchical modelling. The archaeomagnetic data obtained from archaeological structures such as hearths, kilns
    or sets of bricks and tiles, exhibit considerable experimental errors and are generally more or less well dated by
    archaeological context, history or chronometric methods (14C, TL, dendrochronology, etc.). They can also be as-
    sociated with stratigraphic observations which provide prior relative chronological information. The modelling we
    propose allows all these observations and errors to be linked together thanks to appropriate prior probability densi-
    ties. The model also includes penalized cubic splines for estimating the univariate, spherical or three-dimensional
    curves for the secular variation of the geomagnetic field (inclination, declination, intensity) over time at a local
    place. The mean smooth curve we obtain, with its posterior Bayesian envelop provides an adaptation to the effects
    of variability in the density of reference points over time. Moreover, the hierarchical modelling also allows an effi-
    cient way to penalize outliers automatically. With this new posterior estimate of the curve, the Bayesian statistical
    framework then allows to estimate the calendar dates of undated archaeological features (such as kilns) based on
    one, two or three geomagnetic parameters (inclination, declination and/or intensity). Date estimates are presented
    in the same way as those that arise from radiocarbon dating. In order to illustrate the model and the inference
    method used, we will present results based on French, Bulgarian and Austrian datasets recently published.

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