1184 JOURNAL OF CLIMATE VOLUME 24

Influence of the South Atlantic Ocean Dipole on West African Summer Precipitation

HYACINTH C. NNAMCHI
State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics,
Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China, and Department of Geography,
University of Nigeria, Nsukka, Nigeria

JIANPING LI
State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics,
Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China

(Manuscript received 9 February 2010, in final form 20 September 2010)

ABSTRACT

This paper demonstrates a causal link between the airsea phenomenon referred to as the South Atlantic
Ocean (SAO) dipole (SAOD) and the interannual variability of precipitation over West Africa during the
boreal summer monsoon rainy season in which most of the annual rainfall is recorded using an array of
observational datasets. Analyses show that positive precipitation anomalies exceeding 40 mm month21 over
most locations at the Guinea Coast are associated with the positive phase of the SAOD, which is characterized
by warm sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) in the northeastern part of the SAO or the northeast
pole (NEP)that is, the Atlantic Nino sectorand cool SSTA in the southwestern part [southwest pole
(SWP)] off the ArgentinaUruguayBrazil coast. On the other hand, interannual variability in the Sahel is
closely connected to the West African summer monsoon and the Atlantic Nino.
The results of this study reveal that the well-known influence of the Atlantic Nino on Guinea Coast pre-
cipitation in the literature represents only a component of the oceanatmosphere interactions in the SAO
causing the precipitation anomalies. Indeed, correlation and composite analyses using Guinea Coast pre-
cipitation indices consistently yield significant links to both the NEP and SWP centers of action. The hy-
pothesized physical mechanism through which the SAOD-type SST gradients could induce Guinea Coast
precipitation anomalies is the LindzenNigam process. During the positive phase of the SAOD, the imprint of
SST gradients gives rise to divergence over the SWP linked to convergence and vigorous upward motion over
the NEP thereby leading to enhancement of precipitation over the Guinea Coast.

1. Introduction another or over a period of years. As a result, the recurring

features of the WASM can only be useful when the mech-
Precipitation variations over West Africa exhibit an out-
anisms underlying the interannual variations of the mon-
standing seasonal monsoon feature. The monsoon rainfall
soon season precipitation are properly understood.
starts in June and lasts for about four months (Sultan and
In this paper, we investigate the existence of a causal
Janicot 2003), during which most of the annual rainfall is
link between the South Atlantic Ocean (SAO) dipole
recorded. However, although the quasi-regular cycle of the
(SAOD) and the interannual variations of precipitation
West African summer monsoon (WASM) provides an at-
over West Africa, particularly the southern part called
tractive feature for the prediction of the regions summer
the Guinea Coast (GC), during the boreal summer mon-
precipitation, both the duration and intensity of the mon-
soon rainy season. The SAOD is characterized by sea
soon season rainfall can vary substantially from one year to
surface temperature (SST) variability of opposing polar-
ity: one located off the central equatorial/West African
coast in the so called Atlantic Nino region and the other
Corresponding author address: Dr. Jianping Li, State Key Lab- off the ArgentinaUruguayBrazil coast. We demonstrate
oratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and
Geophysical Fluid Dynamics (LASG), Institute of Atmospheric
that besides the Atlantic Nino, which has since been rec-
Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China. ognized as constituting a strong impact on West African
E-mail: ljp@lasg.iap.ac.cn summer precipitation, oceanatmosphere dynamics off

DOI: 10.1175/2010JCLI3668.1

2011 American Meteorological Society

15 FEBRUARY 2011 NNAMCHI AND LI
the ArgentinaUruguayBrazil coast, and their inter-
actions with the Atlantic Nino region, is a dominant
mechanism that controls the interannual variations of
precipitation over the Guinea Coast.
A number of observational (Lamb 1978; Ward 1992;
Fontaine and Bigot 1993; Fontaine and Janicot 1996;
Janicot et al. 1998; Ward 1998) and numerical-modeling
(Folland et al. 1986; Palmer 1986; Rowell et al. 1995; Vizy
and Cook 2001; Giannini et al. 2003) studies have since
explored the influence of SST distribution in the nearby
Atlantic Ocean and further afield on West African sum-
mer precipitation. The effects of the various SST anomaly
(SSTA) types over West Africa are not uniform, although
distinctive spatially coherent patterns of rainfall anomalies
corresponding to the Sahel (SH) and Guinea Coast modes
have been linked to global and Atlantic Ocean SSTA
(Motha et al. 1980; Fontaine and Janicot 1996; Nicholson
and Webster 2007). Basically, there are four of these
rainfall anomaly types over West Africa, and they are
defined as 11, 21, 12, and 22, in reference numerical-modeling studies of Vizy and Cook (2001),
to the rainfall departure signs over the Sahel (north of
latitude 108N) and the Guinea Coast to the south. The
same sign anomaly types represent domainwide patterns.
Thus, the rainfall departure character in the Sahel and the
Guinea Coast that manifests itself as a dipole can be
classified into two West African rainfall types (i.e., 21
indicating the cases in which negative departure occurs
over the Sahel and positive departure over the Guinea
Coast, and 12 when these conditions are reversed).
The occurrence of these out-of-phase anomalies in the
Sahel and Guinea Coast in relation to Atlantic Ocean SST
distributions has been of particular interest in recent
years. Observational analyses identify centers of action of
SST variability linked to West African precipitation in the
Gulf of Guinea and/or the Equatorial Atlantic, that is, the
Atlantic Nino region and North Atlantic Ocean sectors
(Wagner and Da Silva 1994; Ward 1998; Nicholson and
Webster 2007; Polo et al. 2008). Numerical-modeling
studies have also confirmed that these Atlantic Ocean
sectors exert significant impacts on West African precipi-
tation anomalies (e.g., Janicot et al. 1998; Vizy and Cook
2001, Kucharski et al. 2009; Losada et al. 2010).
Ward (1998) shows that for the SahelGuinea dipole
JuneSeptember periods, the high-frequency interannual
component of the Sahel rainfall index has a significant
negative correlation with SSTA in the Gulf of Guinea
sector. Considering the entire 190495 period, it was also
found that an SST index for 108N108S, 208W108E has
a significant negative (positive) correlation with the Sahel
(Guinea Coast) rainfall index. Similarly, by subjecting
SST and precipitation datasets to the maximum covari-
ance analysis, Polo et al. (2008) identified the leading
mode as consisting of the tropical Atlantic Ocean SST
1185
pattern or the Atlantic Nino that is strongly coupled to
anomalous precipitation over the Guinea Coast; whereas
the second mode shows that the North Atlantic Ocean
and Mediterranean SSTA are associated with the Sahel
rainfall.
Focusing on wet (dry) Augusts in the Sahel (Guinea
Coast), Nicholson and Webster (2007) suggest that this
anomaly type is linked to the occurrence of a large surface
pressure gradient between the continent and equatorial
Atlantic Ocean thereby giving rise to inertial instability
and the development of a low-level westerly jet, which
displaces the African easterly jet northwestwards. Strong
vertical motion occurs over the Sahel and subsidence over
the Guinea Coast linked to cool equatorial Atlantic Ocean
SSTA. Consistent with this, the contrasting case charac-
terized by warm SSTA and less-developed equatorial cold
tongue has earlier been associated with enhanced rainfall
over the Guinea Coast (Wagner and Da Silva 1994).
These diagnostic analyses are corroborated by the
Bader and Latif (2011), and Losada et al. (2010). Vizy and
Cook (2001) reported that there is strong sensitivity of
rainfall on the coast of West Africa to the eastern North
Atlantic Ocean SSTA and that rainfall increases over the
Guinea Coast when warm SSTA are present in the Gulf of
Guinea. This strong influence of the Gulf of Guinea SSTA
or the equatorial mode is also reported by Losada et al.
(2010) based on a multimodel approach with an ensemble
of integrations from four atmospheric general circulation
models under a time-varying equatorial SST mode. The
implication of the anomalous warming of the equatorial
belt is a decrease of the local surface temperature gradi-
ent, weakening the WASM flow and the surface conver-
gence over the Sahel. Also based on a case study of the
1983 drought over West Africa, Bader and Latif (2011)
suggested that cool SSTA in the eastern tropical Atlantic
or the equatorial domain and the associated reduction in
water vapor content of the lower troposphere were the
main cause of the rainfall reductions along Guinea Coast.
However, beyond the Gulf of Guineaequatorial At-
lantic Ocean, or the so called Atlantic Nino region and the
North Atlantic Ocean, the possible influence of the ocean
atmosphere interactions in the vast body of the SAO on
West African precipitation remains largely unknown.
Previous studies on the modes of variability in the SAO
sector demonstrate that the second SST mode is charac-
terized by a dipole, and that when the coupled modes of
the oceanatmosphere variability in the basin are con-
sidered, the first mode becomes the dipole (Venegas et al.
1996, 1997; Trzaska et al. 2007). One pole of the dipole
is located in the southwestern SAO and the other in the
northeastern part where the Atlantic Nino (Zebiak
1993; Latif and Grotzner 2000) also occurs. However, the
1186 JOURNAL OF CLIMATE
possible connection between this SAO opposite polarity
mode and precipitation variability over West Africa re-
mains largely unexplored.
The present paper is motivated by a recent study
(Nnamchi et al. 2011, manuscript submitted to J. Geophys.
Res., hereafter NLA11), which examined the evolution
and seasonal patterns of the SAOD and noted that the
opposite SST polarity that characterizes the mode is best
developed during the boreal summer. This coincides with
the peak of the summer monsoon rainfall over West Af-
rica. Preliminary analysis indicates that the SAOD index
is strongly positively correlated with the summer precip-
itation anomalies over the equatorial Atlantic Ocean
West Africa sector based on the Adler et al. (2003)
dataset derived by merging observations, satellite, and
numerical model data on a 2.58 longitude by 2.58 latitude
resolution (19792008).
Therefore, the aim of this paper is to explore this
seeming connection between the SAOD and West Africa
summer precipitation using high-resolution precipitation
datasets for the period 19502006. The remaining parts of
this paper are contained in four sections. The data and
methodology are presented in section 2. In section 3, the
results are described, and the physical mechanism by
which SAOD events could cause precipitation anomalies
over the Guinea Coast is suggested in section 4. The paper
ends with concluding remarks in section 5.
2. Data and methodology
a. Precipitation datasets
High-resolution precipitation datasets available in 0.58
latitude by 0.58 longitude resolution from two independent
sources have been used in this study. The primary dataset
used is the Full Data Analysis (V.4) precipitation data-
set from the Global Precipitation Climatology Centre
(GPCC), Offenbach, Germany (Schneider et al. 2008). To
show the consistency of some of the results obtained, the
analysis is repeated using the Climatic Research Unit
(CRU) Time Series (TS) 3.0 precipitation dataset from
CRU, University of East Anglia, Norwich, United King-
dom (New et al. 2000; Mitchell and Jones 2005). Both
datasets consist of monthly rainfall totals in millimeters.
b. SST datasets
The main SST dataset used is the Hadley Centre Global
Sea Ice and Sea Surface Temperature (HadISST) analysis
dataset (Rayner et al. 2003, 2006) available at 18 longitude
by 18 latitude resolution. However, some analyses have
been repeated using the National Oceanic and Atmo-
spheric Administration (NOAA) Extended Reconstructed
SST (NOAA ERSST) version 3 (Smith et al. 2008)
available at 28 by 28 resolution to demonstrate the
VOLUME 24
stability of the results. Both datasets consist of monthly
mean SST in degrees Celsius.
c. NCEPNCAR reanalysis
Atmospheric circulation data used were obtained
from the National Centers for Environmental Predic-
tion (NCEP)National Center for Atmospheric Re-
search (NCAR) reanalysis dataset (Kalnay et al. 1996).
The NCEPNCAR dataset consists of the reanalysis of
the global observational network of meteorological vari-
ables using a data assimilation system that remained un-
changed throughout the reanalysis period. The datasets
used are available at 2.58 longitude by 2.58 latitude reso-
lution with 17 vertical levels, although some variables, for
example, omega and humidity variables, have less.
All the datasets initially consisted of monthly means.
First, for each dataset the monthly climatology was com-
puted for the 19502006 study period. Then, the monthly
anomaly dataset was created by computing the difference
between the 19502006 climatology and the monthly value
for each year. Prior to subsequent analysis, the monthly
anomalies were averaged for the three boreal summer
months of JuneAugust (JJA).
d. Rainfall, monsoon, and SAOD indices
1) RAINFALL INDICES
The rainfall indices used are for the Sahel and Guinea
Coast representing the two major modes of precipitation
variability over West Africa. The boundary between these
two regions is often drawn around 108N (e.g., Janicot et al.
2001). This delineation is consistent with the result of the
empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis described
later in section 3a. Therefore, the Guinea Coast summer
precipitation index (GC-SPI) is defined as the domain-
averaged precipitation anomalies 28108N, 158W158E.
The Sahel summer precipitation index (SH-SPI) is de-
fined as the precipitation anomalies averaged over 108
208N, 188W158E.
2) MONSOON INDEX
The West African summer monsoon index (WASMI)
used is described in Li and Zeng (2002, 2003) and can be
readily accessed online from http://www.lasg.ac.cn/staff/
ljp/data-monsoon/WASMI.htm. The WASMI represents
the strength of the monsoon winds by use of the magni-
tude of the dynamical normalized seasonality (DNS) of
wind field. It is defined as the domain-averaged DNS at
850 hPa within a large domain over West Africa (58
17.58N, 208W408E) and is given by
 
V  V 
1  i

di 5  2, (1)
V
15 FEBRUARY 2011 NNAMCHI AND LI
where V1 and Vi are the January climatology (as the ref-
erence state, here averaged from 1968 to 1996) and
monthly wind vectors at a grid point, respectively, and V is
the mean of the January and July climatology wind vectors
at the same point. The value 2 is subtracted from the right-
hand side of the equation because the critical value of the
significance of the quantity kV1  Vi k/kVk is 2 (Li and
Zeng
2000). The norm kAk is defined as kAk 5
( S jAj2 dS)1/2 , where S denotes the domain of integra-
tion. For further details about the DNS see Wang et al.
(2008) and Feng et al. (2010). The JuneSeptember av-
erage of the WASMI is highly positively correlated with
variability of summer rainfall over the Sahel (Li and
Zeng 2002). Here, we use the JuneAugust-averaged
time series of the index from 1950 to 2006.
3) SAOD INDEX
Previous studies using the EOFs, singular value de-
composition (SVD), and composite analyses demonstrate
that there are two centers of action of opposing SST
variability in the SAO (Venegas et al. 1996, 1997; Trzaska
et al. 2007; NLA11.). One center is located in the
northeastern (108E208W, 08158S) and the other in the
southwestern (108408W, 258408S) parts of the SAO.
These are respectively referred to as the northeast pole
(NEP) and southwest pole (SWP) of the SAO.
NLA11 defined the SAOD index (SAODI) as the
domain-averaged SSTA over the NEP minus the domain-
averaged SSTA over the SWP. A positive SAOD or
positive phase means warm SST in the NEP off the coast
of central equatorial Africa/West Africa and cool SST
in the SWP domain off the ArgentinaUruguayBrazil
coast. The opposite SSTA pattern characterizes a nega-
tive SAOD or the negative phase.
As shown by NLA11, the domain-averaged SSTA
over the NEP and SWP are significantly negatively cor-
related in all the months of the year. The correlation of
these two indices based on JJA-averaged data is also
negative and significant at the 95% confidence level based
on both the HadISST and NOAA ERSST datasets. This
indicates that the SSTA of these two domains evolves in an
opposing manner. Indeed, the SAODI effectively re-
produces the SST variability characteristic of the leading
SVD (i.e., the dipole) mode over the SAO. The correla-
tion between the JJA time series of the SAODI and the
corresponding SVD time series is 10.93 after the linear
trend has been removed.
4) ATLANTIC NINO INDEX
The Atlantic Nino is an equatorial zonal mode analo-
gous to the Pacific-based El Nino. It is characterized by
maximum SSTA on the equatorial belt. Earlier studies
indicate that the Atlantic Nino is most prominent during
1187
the boreal summer (Zebiak 1993; Okumura and Xie 2006).
An Atlantic Nino index (ATL-3) is defined as the domain-
averaged SSTA over the domain, 38N38S, 08208W
(Zebiak 1993; Latif and Grotzner 2000).
3. Results
a. Monsoon, the SAOD, Atlantic Nino, and West
African summer precipitation anomalies
Figure 1a shows the simultaneous correlations of the
WASMI and SAODI with the summer precipitation
anomalies over West Africa. It is readily evident that the
influence of the WASM is very strong and widespread in
the Sahel as illustrated by the robust positive correlation
between WASMI and the precipitation anomalies. On the
other hand, it appears that there is a lack of connection
between the WASMI and precipitation anomalies at the
Guinea Coast (south of latitude 108N). However, the
correlation of the SAODI with West African precipitation
anomalies indicates that the SAOD events are strongly
and positively related to precipitation anomalies over the
Guinea Coast. In contrast, the correlation of the SAODI
and precipitation anomalies is generally insignificant over
the Sahel.
The correlation pattern in the two panels of Fig. 1a de-
picts almost a complete picture of the relative influences of
the WASM and SAOD on the interannual variability of
precipitation over West Africa. As it is generally ac-
knowledged, the WASM is the dominant factor that shapes
the character of the interannual variability of precipitation
in the Sahel. In addition to this, we now see that the SAOD
appears to play a similar role of determining the in-
terannual variability of precipitation at the Guinea coast.
To further explore these points, we have applied the
EOF analysis to the JJA-averaged normalized precipi-
tation anomalies over West Africa based on the GPCC
V.4 dataset (Fig. 1b). The first mode (EOF-1), which
carries 20.5% of the total variance, is characterized by
significant eigenvector loadings over the Sahel, while
EOF-2 (8.0%) corresponds to the dominant mode of
precipitation variability at the Guinea Coast. These two
modes are quite distinct from the subsequent modes
(EOF-3, 5.8%; EOF-4, 4.9%). Note that the spatial pat-
tern of EOF-1 (EOF-2) closely reproduces the correla-
tion structure of the WASMI (SAODI) and precipitation
anomalies.
At this point, one question that might arise is follows:
are the spatial patterns of the West African precipitation
modes as well as the correlation of the SAODIWASMI
and the precipitation anomalies stable or dependent on
the GPCC V.4 dataset used? To investigate the answers
to this question and thereby evaluate how consistent the
1188 JOURNAL OF CLIMATE VOLUME 24

FIG. 1. (a) Detrended correlation maps of the WASMI and SAODI with JJA-averaged precipitation
anomalies over West Africa based on GPCC V.4 dataset from 1950 to 2006. Thick white contours indicate
correlations significant at the 95% confidence level based on a t test. (b) Spatial patterns of EOF-1 and
EOF-2 of the precipitation anomalies. (c),(d) As in (a),(b), but based on the CRU TS 3.0 dataset.
15 FEBRUARY 2011 NNAMCHI AND LI
TABLE 1. Correlation between West African precipitation modes, WASMI, SAODI, and ATL-3. An asterisk indicates significant
correlation at the 95% confidence level based on a t test. Linear trends have been removed before computing the values in parentheses.
PC-1 PC-2
PC-1 1
PC-2 20.11 (20.13) 1
SAODI 20.07 (20.11) 0.56* (0.56*)
WASMI 0.73* (0.62*) 0.13 (0.13)
ATL-3 20.37* (20.26*) 0.49* (0.59*)
results are, we have repeated the correlation and EOF
analyses using the CRU TS 3.0 dataset for the same 1950
2006 period. Figures 1cd show that the spatial coherence
of the correlations and the first two EOFs (45%) based
on the CRU TS 3.0 precipitation dataset clearly repro-
duces the earlier analyses using the GPCC V.4 dataset.
Again, the first two EOF modes are quite separable from
the lower-order modes. To recapitulate, there is consis-
tency in both datasets in two important respects of in-
terest in the present study: 1) the WASMI (SAODI) is
significantly correlated with only the Sahel (Guinea Coast)
precipitation anomalies; and 2) the first (second) EOF
mode of the West African JJA precipitation anomalies
corresponds to the Sahel (Guinea Coast).
We have also computed the simultaneous correlation
between the principal component (PC) time series corre-
sponding to the first two EOFs, SAODI, WASMI, and the
ATL-3 as shown in Table 1. The Guinea Coast mode, that
is, PC-2, is significantly correlated with the SAODI (r 5
10.56) while the WASMI has a significant correlation
with the Sahel mode (r 510.73). On the other hand, there
is no correlation between PC-1 and the SAODI as well as
between the WASMI and PC-2. All these correlations
remain basically unchanged after detrending each pair of
the time series before calculating the correlation co-
efficients, indicating that the relationships are stable.
Table 1 also indicates that ATL-3 is significantly posi-
tively correlated with the SAODI and PC-2 and negatively
correlated with PC-1. However, the weak correlation be-
tween the ATL-3 and WASMI (r 5 20.20) collapses after
the linear trend coefficients are removed from the time
series. The existence of robust correlations (of opposing
signs) between the ATL-3 and the Sahel and Guinea
Coast precipitation indicates the importance of the At-
lantic Nino on the domainwide precipitation variability
over West Africa and explains why it has received sub-
stantial research attention as highlighted in section 1.
The correlations of ATL-3 and all other time series are
noticeably affected by the linear trend coefficient. Thus,
the negative correlations of ATL-3 with PC-1 and WASMI
weaken after detrending, while the positive correlation
with PC-2 and SAODI increased after the linear trend has
been removed. We have also calculated the linear trend
1189
SAODI WASMI ATL-3
1
20.10 (20.09) 1
0.76* (0.82*) 20.20 (0.004) 1
coefficient of ATL-3 (0.018C yr21), which is significant at
the 95% confidence level, indicating a net warming trend.
This warming, however, does not lead to an increasing
trend in the JJA precipitation over the Guinea Coast. In
fact, Guinea Coast precipitation exhibited a net decrease
with a linear trend of the precipitation anomaly time series
of 20.31 (although this is not significant) during the same
period. Similarly, the SAODI also experienced a net
downward but insignificant trend of 20.0028C yr21 be-
tween 1950 and 2006.
From the foregoing analyses, it is plausible to argue that
the dominant factor that controls the interannual varia-
tions of precipitation over the Guinea Coast is the SAOD,
which takes into consideration the roles of the SWP center
of action in the SAO and not merely the Atlantic Nino as
has been considered in the previous studies. In the Sahel,
the WASM represents a similar influence. These relations
explain why the spatial patterns of the correlations of the
SAODI and WASMI with West African precipitation
closely capture the Guinea Coast and Sahel precipitation
modes, respectively. Interestingly, the correlation of the
SAODI (WASMI) and Guinea Coast (Sahel) precipita-
tion anomaly time series remains unchanged after re-
moving the linear trend coefficients.
To further illustrate the connection between the At-
lantic Nino and West African precipitation, and by so
doing differentiating it from the influence of the SAOD, it
becomes necessary to investigate the spatial pattern of the
correlation of the ATL-3 index and precipitation anom-
alies over West Africa. Figure 2 shows that the Atlantic
Nino has a spatially coherent correlation pattern over the
Guinea Coast similar to that of the SAODI except that
the correlation of the latter is more widespread. In addi-
tion, the ATL-3 index has robust negative correlations
over much of the Sahel. Therefore, the influence of the
Atlantic Nino appears to be responsible for the 12 and
21 anomaly patterns over West Africa.
As noted earlier, previous studies also identify two types
of domainwide in-phase precipitation anomaly patterns
over both the Guinea Coast and Sahel: one negative and
the other positive departures (Ward 1998; Fontaine and
Janicot 1996; Janicot et al. 1998; Nicholson and Webster
2007). However, the opposite polarity (i.e., 12 and 21)
1190 JOURNAL OF CLIMATE
FIG. 2. Detrended correlation of the ATL-3 index with West African precipitation anomalies based on the (left)
GPCC V.4 and the (right) CRU TS 3.0 datasets. Contours indicate correlation coefficients significant at the 95%
confidence level based on a two-tailed t test.
in which positive precipitation anomalies over the Sahel
occur concurrently with negative anomalies over the
Guinea Coast, and vice versa, occurs more frequently.
Based on 93 years of data from 1904 to 1996, Ward (1998)
shows that these homogenous patterns defined as those
years in which the rainfall anomaly indices of the Guinea
Coast and the Sahel have the same signs (i.e., 11 and
22) occurred only 36 times while opposite polarities
between the two regions occurred in the rest of the years.
In the context of the available literature, which iden-
tifies four precipitation anomaly types over West Africa, it
is rather difficult to place the WASMI versus SAODI kind
of correlations into any particular category. Specifically,
the correlation of the SAODI and Sahel precipitation is
insignificant and cannot be classified as either 1 or 2. The
same could be said of the correlation of the WASMI and
Guinea Coast precipitation anomalies; and we have
demonstrated that these patterns bear close resemblance
to the first two EOF modes of precipitation variability of
West Africa. Note also that the correlation of SAODI is
far more widespread (compared to that of the Atlantic
Nino), extending practically to all locations south of lati-
tude 108N in the western extremity and far beyond this
latitude in most parts of West Africa.
b. SAOD and the relationship between the Sahel and
Guinea Coast precipitation modes
It has been shown that two distinctive JJA precipitation
modesone representing the Sahel and the other the
Guinea Coastare found over West Africa using the
EOF analysis. By construction, the EOF modes are spa-
tially orthogonal and temporally uncorrelated to each
other (see Hannachi et al. 2007; Monahan et al. 2009).
The question then is as follows: are Guinea and Sahel
precipitation really independent or does their lack of
VOLUME 24
correlation reflect a constraint in the formulation of the
EOF? To establish this point, we have computed the
correlation between the Sahel and Guinea Coast rainfall
indices (i.e., the SH-SPI and GC-SPI). The raw correla-
tion between these two index time series is 20.01, which is
very weak. Even after the linear trend has been removed
from the data, their detrended correlation remains very
weak at 20.15. This suggests that the interannual varia-
tions of precipitation in the two regions might be really
independent.
For the 19502006 period, we have also examined the
temporal evolution of the Sahel and Guinea Coast pre-
cipitation anomaly indices, namely, the normalized time
series of the SH-SPI, GC-SPI, and the PC-1 and PC-2 of
the West African precipitation anomalies (Fig. 3). It is
quite obvious from these indices that the SahelGuinea
Coast dipole is best defined prior to the 1970s when the
interannual variations of rainfall over the two regions also
exhibited marked amplitudes. On the other hand, the
period from the early 1970s to the mid-1980s is charac-
terized by persistent drought in both regions, suggesting
that Sahel and Guinea Coast precipitation are related at
some periods and may not really be as decoupled as im-
plied by their lack of direct correlation.
c. SAOD and Guinea Coast precipitation anomalies
We have shown that the SAODI is strongly correlated
with the Guinea Coast precipitation while there is no si-
multaneous connection between the SAODI and Sahel
precipitation. The robust correlation between the SAODI
and GC-SPI is also stable over the long term using the
102-yr period (19052006), with a coefficient of 10.55 that
is significant at the 95% confidence level based on t test.
This value remains unchanged after the linear trend co-
efficient has been removed.
15 FEBRUARY 2011 NNAMCHI AND LI
FIG. 3. (a) Normalized time series of the GC-SPI (solid) and SH-
SPI (dotted), and (b) PC-1 (Sahel mode, dotted) and PC-2 (Guinea
Coast mode, solid) of West African precipitation anomalies. Both
panels are based on the GPCC V.4 dataset averaged for JJA from
1950 to 2006.
As shown in Fig. 4a, the running correlation of the
SAOD and Guinea Coast precipitation over a 31-yr slid-
ing window indicates that the relationship appears to have
been stationary. On the other hand, significant (negative)
correlation exists between the SAODI and Sahel pre-
cipitation only during the two decades from 1940 to 1960,
with marked nonstationarity during the 102 years. This
shifting connection between the SAOD and summer
monsoon rainfall over the Sahel is quite appealing, and its
fuller understanding could lead to improved prediction
over the Sahel. However, our particular interest in the
present paper is on the direct influence of the SAOD on
the interannual variations of summer rainfall over the
Guinea Coast. The long-term time series of the SAODI
and GC-SPI presented are in Fig. 4b, which reveals that
the temporal evolution of the two time series is also
strongly related.
Consistent with this, the correlation of the Guinea Coast
precipitation indices and SSTA over the SAO consistently
yields SAOD-like patterns throughout the various seg-
ments of the long-term time series we examined. We il-
lustrate this using two Guinea Coast precipitation indices
of different lengthsnamely, the GC-SPI (19052006)
and the PC-2 of the West African precipitation anomalies
(19502006).
Figure 5a shows that both time series have significant
positive correlation with the SSTA in the NEP and sig-
nificant negative correlation with SSTA in the SWP based
on the HadISST dataset. This means that warming of the
surface waters in the NEP (SWP) associated with con-
current cooling in the SWP (NEP) provides favorable
conditions for the occurrence (nonoccurrence) of
1191
FIG. 4. (a) A 31-yr running correlation between the SAODI and
GC-SPI (solid) and between the SAODI and SH-SPI (dotted). The
dashed horizontal lines indicate the 95% confidence level line
based on the t test. Both time series have been detrended prior to
computing the correlation. (b) Normalized time series of the
SAODI (dashed) and GC-SPI (solid). Both time panels are based
on data from 1905 to 2006.
precipitation over the Guinea Coast. The correlation
analysis is repeated using the NOAA ERSST, which also
produced similar results (Fig. 5b). The consistency of the
analyses based on these two different datasets indicate that
in addition to the well known Atlantic Nino or equatorial
mode, the variability and feedbacks in the SWP of the
SAO constitute strong impacts on the variability of sum-
mer precipitation over the Guinea Coast. In fact, the cor-
relation of PC-2 appears to be more robust in the SWP
(than in the NEP) domain during the 19502006 period
based on the NOAA ERSST dataset. More impor-
tantly, the SAOD-type opposite polarity pattern repre-
sents the main feature of the correlation in all cases.
To further illustrate that the positive phase of the
SAOD is associated with positive precipitation anomalies
and its negative phase linked to negative precipitation
anomalies over the Guinea Coast, we have computed the
composites of the West African JJA precipitation anom-
alies for both episodes (Fig. 6). The composites are based
1192 JOURNAL OF CLIMATE VOLUME 24

FIG. 5. Correlation maps of (left) PC-2 of West African precipitation anomalies from 1950 to 2006 and (right)
GC-SPI from 1905 to 2006 with SAO SSTA. (a) The HadISST dataset and (b) the NOAA ERSST dataset. Contours
indicate correlations significant at the 95% confidence level.

on five typical positive and five typical negative cases of
the SAOD. These typical cases are defined by the SAODI
no less than and no more than a standard deviation of
11.0 (21.0). By this definition, the typical positive SAOD
(SAOD1) years are 1963, 1968, 1974, 1988, and 1999,
whereas the negative SAOD years (SAOD2) are 1958,
1976, 1983, 1992, and 2005.
Figure 6 clearly demonstrates that during the positive
SAOD years, the Guinea Coast experiences anoma-
lously high precipitation exceeding 40 mm month21 at
most locations. The northern extent of the pronounced
precipitation anomalies roughly follows latitude 108N,
consistent with the areal extent of the Guinea Coast
earlier established using EOF and correlation analyses.
In contrast, in the negative SAOD years, the unusual
SST cooling in the NEP (and warming in the SWP) sector
of the SAO is associated with domainwide anomalous
failure of rainfall over the Guinea Coast. Thus, the right
panels of Figs. 6a and 6b indicate that precipitation
anomaly patterns characteristic of the positive SAOD
phase are reversed during the negative phase of the phe-
nomenon such that most locations experience amounts
less than 40 mm month21 of the average. Note also that
the link between the SAOD and Guinea Coast precipi-
tation anomalies are well captured in both the GPCC V.4
and CRU TS 3.0 datasets.
4. Discussion
a. SST gradients, circulation, and precipitation
anomalies
The Atlantic Nino has for long been known as a strong
signal of tropical Atlantic variability with substantial
15 FEBRUARY 2011 NNAMCHI AND LI 1193

FIG. 6. Composite of West African JJA precipitation anomalies for (left) five SAOD1 and (right) five SAOD2
cases. The SAOD1 cases are 1963, 1968, 1974, 1988, and 1999, and the SAOD2 cases are 1958, 1976, 1983, 1992, and
2005. (a) The GPCC V.4 dataset and (b) CRU TS 3.0 dataset.

effects on West African summer precipitation (Zebiak
1993; Latif and Grotzner 2000; Okumura and Xie 2006;
Joly and Voldoire 2010). However, it is shown in section 3
based on correlation and composite analyses that the
SAOD-type SST pattern is strongly related to Guinea
Coast precipitation in JJA. This suggests that the impacts
of the SWP represent a strong influence on the behavior
of the Atlantic Nino or the variability of the NEP vis-a`-vis
the occurrence of the precipitation anomalies. Thus, the
correlation of the SAODI and the NEP time series (raw
correlation is 10.80 and the detrended correlation is
10.87) is very strong. The correlation between the
SAODI and the SWP time series (20.68 and 20.76 for
the raw and detrended correlation coefficient, respec-
tively) is equally strong, and all the coefficients are sig-
nificant at the 99.9% confidence level based on t test.
We suggest that a dynamically induced large-scale
surface convergence over the NEP, which results from the
SAOD-type SST gradients, is the cause of deep convec-
tion and precipitation in the equatorial Atlantic Ocean
Guinea Coast sector during SAOD episodes following the
LindzenNigam mechanism (Lindzen and Nigam 1987,
see also Back and Bretherton 2009a,b). At the surface, the
horizontal circulation field during the positive phase of the
SAOD is dominated by divergent motion over the SWP
and strong convergence over the NEP (Fig. 7a). Anom-
alous surface winds emanating from the SWP blow
northward, splitting into two in the process. One part re-
turns in the southeast direction toward the coast of South
Africa while the other, which is really the dominant pat-
tern, remains southerly. This southerly surface wind on
reaching the equatorial belt is deflected by the Coriolis
1194 JOURNAL OF CLIMATE VOLUME 24

FIG. 7. (a) Composite average of SST (shading), SLP (contours), and surface wind (vectors)
anomalies associated with the five SAOD1 years. SSTA composites significant at the 95%
confidence level are shaded, and thick vectors indicate wind anomalies significant at the 90%
confidence level based on a t test. (b) Latitudepressure cross section of regional zonally
averaged anomalous vertical motion (vector, 1022 Pa s21) and meridional circulation (con-
tour; m s22) between 458W and 158E.
15 FEBRUARY 2011 NNAMCHI AND LI
FIG. 8. Composite average of anomalous moisture transport magnitude during the SAOD (shading and vectors,
g kg21 m s21) at (a) 925 hPa and (b) vertically integrated from the 1000- to 400-hPa pressure levels.
force to blow as westerlies toward the NEP. Over the
NEP, there is a complementing stream of southerly
winds emanating from the anomalous warm region off the
coast of central equatorial Africa. The surface conver-
gence of these two airstreams in the equatorial belt gives
rise to Hadley-like vigorous rising motion (Fig. 7b).
As discussed by Back and Bretherton (2009b), the dis-
tribution of SST is also influenced by convection. In the case
of the SAOD, however, it appears that surface convergence
and vigorous vertical motion is determined by the imprint
of SST gradients on sea level pressure (SLP) gradients and
the horizontal circulation field. For example, NLA11 com-
puted the lagged correlation between the SAODI and the
SLP time series of the first (i.e., the dipole) mode obtained
by the SVD of the SAO SST and SLP anomalies based on
data for the 19502006 period. The result shows that the
negative correlation between the two time series is most
robust when the SAOD leads by one month.
It is important to note that vertical motion is influenced
by the distribution of precipitation, and as such, it could
be argued that the rising motion over the NEP may be a
response to the anomalous precipitation over the Guinea
Coast rather than a cause. However, our interpretation is
that the convergence and anomalous upward motions are
primarily induced by the SAOD SST gradients via the
LindzenNigam-type mechanism. The next stage of our
work will center on the verification of this hypothesis
through boundary layer modeling (e.g., Stevens et al.
2002; Back and Bretherton 2009a), in which the effects of
different SST conditions on the boundary layer flow are
computed.
1195
b. Moisture transport
To gain further dynamical insights on how the SAOD
could induce Guinea Coast precipitation anomalies, we
have also examined the moisture transport associated
with the phenomenon. Using the NCEPNCAR dataset,
the moisture flux patterns have been investigated based
on the composites for the five cases of positive SAOD. At
each atmospheric level (subscript lvl), the anomalous
horizontal moisture flux can be defined as follows (Vigaud
et al. 2009):
Q 5 qlvl ylvl , (2)
where qlvl is the specific humidity anomaly, and ylvl is the
horizontal wind components anomaly at the given tro-
pospheric level.
At 925 hPa (Fig. 8a), the vector of the moisture flux
shows that the SAOD-induced moisture transport is
dominated by three domains in the SAO located at the
SWP, the equatorial Atlantic Ocean, and off the coast of
central equatorial Africa. Convergence occurs over the
NEP, while the SWP is dominated by strong northerly
transport. This further supports the hypothesis that the
dynamics and feedbacks in the SWP constitute a signifi-
cant influence on the variability of the NEP (or the
Atlantic Nino) and how it is connected to the summer
precipitation over the Guinea Coast.
Indeed, the surface moisture flux anomaly patterns
characterize much of the troposphere in the SAOGuinea
Coast sector during SAOD episodes. We demonstrate this
by computing the vertical integration of the anomalous
1196 JOURNAL OF CLIMATE
moisture flux fields between the sea level and 400 hPa.
Following Behera et al. (1999), the vertically integrated
water vapor transport is defined by the following relations:
400
1 SWP linked to convergence and vigorous upward motion
Q5 qV dP, (3)
g 1000
where g is the acceleration due to gravity (9.81 m s22), q is
the specific humidity anomaly, and V is the horizontal wind
fields anomaly; the values 1000 and 400 indicate the pres-
sure levels (hPa) over which the integration is computed.
Figure 8b shows that the vertically integrated moisture
flux field captures the major features at the 925-hPa-
pressure level. However, the vertical integration in the
lower troposphere demonstrates the overriding signifi-
cance of the equatorial moisture source for the Guinea
Coast precipitation. This is consistent with the results of
Bader and Latif (2011), which linked the 1983 drought
over the Guinea Coast to cool SSTA in the equatorial
region and the associated reduction in water vapor con-
tent in the lower troposphere in a modeling study using
the ECHAM5 atmospheric general circulation model.
5. Concluding remarks
This study examines the relationship between the
SAOD and the interannual variations of summer pre-
cipitation over West Africa. Analyses reveal that the
SAOD has a robust connection with Guinea Coast pre-
cipitation anomalies while the WASMI is significantly
correlated with precipitation anomalies over the Sahel.
Indeed, their correlation patterns are closely reproduced
as the Guinea coast and Sahel modes of the West African
summer precipitation anomalies by the EOF analysis.
A direct connection of the SAOD phenomenon to the
Guinea Coast as a key source of precipitation variability
during the boreal summerthe season with the strongest
SAOD intensity has therefore been established. It is
demonstrated in this paper that beyond the well-known
influence of the Atlantic Nino, oceanatmosphere inter-
actions in the SWP off the ArgentinaUruguayBrazil
coast and their impacts on the Atlantic Nino sector also
significantly impact the interannual variations of Guinea
Coast summer precipitation. Thus, the principal pattern of
the correlation of Guinea Coast precipitation indices and
SSTA is consistently of opposite polarity of significant
correlation in the NEP and SWP of the SAO character-
istic of the SAOD. A positive SAOD event is associated
with positive precipitation anomalies exceeding 40 mm
month21 in most parts of the Guinea Coast. The reverse is
the case during the negative SAOD episode.
The suggested physical mechanism through which
the SAOD-type SST gradients induce Guinea Coast
VOLUME 24
precipitation anomalies is the LindzenNigam mecha-
nism. During the positive phase of the SAOD (associated
with warming over the NEP and cooling over the SWP),
the imprint of SST gradients induces divergence over the
over the NEP. This upward motion enhances the flux of
moisture from the Gulf of Guinea and the equatorial
Atlantic Ocean into the Guinea Coast thereby leading to
the enhancement of precipitation.
Acknowledgments. This work is jointly supported by
the TWAS-CAS Postgraduate Fellowship and the 973
Program AirLandSea Interactions in Asia and Their
Role in Global Change (2010CB950400). We are grate-
ful to our colleagues at LASG, Institute of Atmospheric
Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, for their
comments during the course of the project and to three
anonymous reviewers for their constructive criticisms,
which greatly improved the manuscript.
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