1.

Metode Pemulusan Eksponensial Tunggal

jlh Nilai Pemulusan

t penjualan Yt Yt(hat) et et2 |et|
sepatu (Yt) Yt(hat) (

initial value 0.29 366.6666666667

1 500 145 260.3333333333
2 350 101.5 287.7866666667 405.3333333333 -55.333333333 3061.7777778
3 250 72.5 276.4 389.3 -139.28666667 19400.775511
4 400 116 247.7 348.9 51.1064666667 2611.8709352
5 450 130.5 258.2 363.7 86.2855913333 7445.2032717
6 350 101.5 276.0 388.7 -38.737230153 1500.573
7 200 58 268.0 377.5 -177.50343341 31507.468872
8 300 87 231.5 326.0 -26.02743772 677.42751428
9 350 101.5 226.1 318.5 31.5205192186 993.54313181
10 200 58 232.6 327.6 -127.62043135 16286.974499
11 150 43.5 206.3 290.6 -140.61050626 19771.314471
12 400 116 177.4 249.8 150.166540554 22549.989902
13 550 159.5 208.3 293.4 256.618243793 65852.923048
14 350 101.5 261.1 367.8 -17.801046907 316.87727097
15 250 72.5 257.5 362.6 -112.6387433 12687.486493
16 550 159.5 234.3 330.0 220.026492254 48411.657294
17 550 159.5 279.6 393.8 156.218809501 24404.316442
18 400 116 311.8 439.1 -39.084645255 1527.6094947
19 350 101.5 303.7 427.8 -77.750098131 6045.0777593
20 600 174 287.7 405.2 194.797430327 37946.038862
21 750 217.5 327.8 461.7 288.306175532 83120.45085
22 500 145 387.2 545.3 -45.302615372 2052.3269596
23 400 116 377.8 532.2 -132.16485691 17467.549403
24 650 188.5 350.6 493.8 156.162951591 24386.86745
23 450,026
19,566.4
MSE MAD
|et|/Yt et/Yt

Nilai awal (initial value) = nilai pengamatan pertama (=Y 1)

MAPE MPE
1. Metode Pemulusan Eksponensial Tunggal

jlh Nilai Pemulusan

t penjualan Yt Yt(hat) et et2 |et|
sepatu (Yt) Yt(hat) (

initial value 0.11 -99.3333333333

1 -263 -28.93 -88.4066666667
2 17 1.87 -104.429633333 -117.3366666667 134.336666667 18046.340011
3 -52 -5.72 -91.3 -102.6 50.5596333333 2556.2765228
4 195 21.45 -86.3 -97.0 291.998073667 85262.875025
5 82 9.02 -57.7 -64.9 146.878285563 21573.23077
6 -58 -6.38 -43.4 -48.7 -9.2783258486 86.087330553
7 -163 -17.93 -44.3 -49.7 -113.25771001 12827.308876
8 -3 -0.33 -55.4 -62.2 59.2006380953 3504.7155509
9 88 9.68 -49.6 -55.7 143.688567905 20646.404547
10 18 1.98 -35.5 -39.9 57.8828254353 3350.4214804
11 -23 -2.53 -29.8 -33.5 10.5157146374 110.58025434
12 -172 -18.92 -28.8 -32.4 -139.64101397 19499.612783
13 7 0.77 -42.5 -47.7 54.7194975643 2994.2234137
14 132 14.52 -37.1 -41.7 173.700352832 30171.812574
15 109 11.99 -20.1 -22.6 131.593314021 17316.800295
16 20 2.2 -7.2 -8.1 28.1180494784 790.62470647
17 -42 -4.62 -4.5 -5.0 -36.974935964 1367.1458896
18 -115 -12.65 -8.1 -9.1 -105.90769301 11216.439438
19 93 10.23 -18.5 -20.7 113.742153223 12937.27742
20 -93 -10.23 -7.3 -8.2 -84.769483632 7185.8653552
21 81 8.91 -15.6 -17.6 98.5551595677 9713.1194774
22 108 11.88 -6.0 -6.7 114.714092015 13159.322907
23 -3 -0.33 5.3 5.9 -8.9044581064 79.289374169
24 -112 -12.32 4.4 4.9 -116.92496771 13671.448075
25 -136 -14.96 -7.1 -7.9 -128.06322127 16400.188641
26 -4 -0.44 -19.6 -22.0 18.0237330732 324.85495389
27 129 14.19 -17.8 -20.0 149.041122435 22213.256177
28 71 7.81 -3.2 -3.6 74.6465989673 5572.1147374
29 -100 -11 4.1 4.6 -104.56452692 10933.74029
30 56 6.16 -6.2 -6.9 62.937571042 3961.1378487
31 28 3.08 0.0 0.0 28.0144382274 784.80874919
32 -92 -10.12 2.7 3.1 -95.067149978 9037.7630049
33 10 1.1 -6.6 -7.4 17.3902365199 302.42032622
34 -18 -1.98 -4.9 -5.5 -12.522689497 156.81775225
35 39 4.29 -6.1 -6.9 45.8548063474 2102.6632652
36 -8 -0.88 -1.6 -1.8 -6.1892223508 38.306473308
37 16 1.76 -2.2 -2.5 18.4915921078 341.93897868
38 21 2.31 -0.4 -0.5 21.4575169759 460.42503477
39 17 1.87 1.7 1.9 15.0971901086 227.92514917
40 51 5.61 3.2 3.6 47.4364991966 2250.221456
41 -27 -2.97 7.8 8.8 -35.781515715 1280.3168669
42 -94 -10.34 4.3 4.8 -98.845548986 9770.4425544
43 -30 -3.3 -5.4 -6.0 -23.972538598 574.68260683
44 -65 -7.15 -7.7 -8.7 -56.335559352 3173.6952475
45 36 3.96 -13.2 -14.9 50.8613521766 2586.8771452
46 105 11.55 -8.2 -9.3 114.266603437 13056.856661
47 13 1.43 2.9 3.3 9.6972770591 94.037182361
48 17 1.87 3.9 4.4 12.6305765826 159.53146481
49 -121 -13.31 5.1 5.8 -126.75878684 16067.790042
50 9 0.99 -7.3 -8.2 17.1846797111 295.31321677
51 -67 -7.37 -5.6 -6.3 -60.705635057 3685.1741277
52 -38 -4.18 -11.5 -13.0 -25.028015201 626.40154489
53 219 24.09 -14.0 -15.7 234.725066471 55095.85683
54 -84 -9.24 9.0 10.1 -94.094690841 8853.8108444
55 79 8.69 -0.2 -0.3 79.2557251519 6281.4699693
56 60 6.6 7.5 8.5 51.5375953852 2656.1237381
57 13 1.43 12.6 14.1 -1.1315401072 1.2803830142
58 -24 -2.64 12.5 14.0 -38.007070695 1444.5374228
59 -68 -7.48 8.7 9.8 -77.826292919 6056.9318695
60 -88 -9.68 1.1 1.3 -89.265400698 7968.3117617
61 38 4.18 -7.6 -8.6 46.5537933789 2167.255678
62 50 5.5 -3.1 -3.4 53.4328761072 2855.0722491
63 122 13.42 2.2 2.4 119.555259735 14293.46013
64 -68 -7.48 13.9 15.6 -83.595818835 6988.2609268
65 -116 -12.76 5.7 6.4 -122.40027876 14981.828241
66 -115 -12.65 -6.3 -7.1 -107.9362481 11650.233654
67 151 16.61 -16.9 -18.9 169.936739191 28878.495327
68 22 2.42 -0.2 -0.2 22.2436978803 494.78209539
69 -55 -6.05 2.0 2.2 -57.203108886 3272.1956663
70 202 22.22 -3.6 -4.1 206.089233091 42472.771996
71 -158 -17.38 16.5 18.6 -176.58058255 31180.702133
70 682,140
9,744.9
MSE MAD
|et|/Yt et/Yt

Nilai awal (initial value) = nilai pengamatan pertama (=Y 1)

alfa MSE
0.1 9725.43
0.2 10209.33
0.3 10916.36
0.4 11657.88
0.5 12402.79
0.6 13159.41
0.7 13957.06
0.8 14839.46
0.9 15861.07

alfa
0.01 13,587.51
0.02 11,676.46
0.03 10,759.75
0.04 10,280.78
0.05 10,014.73
0.06 9,862.88
0.07 9,777.90
0.08 9,735.05
 0.09 9720.36701
0.1 9725.42936
0.11 9,744.9
0.12
0.13
0.14
0.15
0.16
0.17
0.18
MAPE MPE 0.19
1. Metode Pemulusan Eksponensial Tunggal

jlh Nilai Pemulusan

t penjualan Yt Yt(hat) et et2 |et|
sepatu (Yt) Yt(hat) (

initial value 0.7 500

1 500 350 150
2 350 245 150 500 -150 22500
3 250 175 118.5 395.0 -145 21025
4 400 280 88.1 293.5 106.5 11342.25
5 450 315 110.4 368.1 81.95 6715.8025
6 350 245 127.6 425.4 -75.415 5687.422225
7 200 140 111.8 372.6 -172.6245 29799.218
8 300 210 75.5 251.8 48.21265 2324.45962
9 350 245 85.7 285.5 64.463795 4155.5808658
10 200 140 99.2 330.7 -130.6608615 17072.260728
11 150 105 71.8 239.2 -89.19825845 7956.3293105
12 400 280 53.0 176.8 223.240522465 49836.33087
13 550 385 99.9 333.0 216.97215674 47076.9168
14 350 245 145.5 484.9 -134.90835298 18200.263703
15 250 175 117.1 390.5 -140.47250589 19732.524912
16 550 385 87.6 292.1 257.858248232 66490.876181
17 550 385 141.8 472.6 77.3574744696 5984.1788563
18 400 280 158.0 526.8 -126.79275766 16076.403395
19 350 245 131.4 438.0 -88.037827298 7750.6590353
20 600 420 112.9 376.4 223.588651811 49991.885219
21 750 525 159.9 532.9 217.076595543 47122.248333
22 500 350 205.5 684.9 -184.87702134 34179.513018
23 400 280 166.6 555.5 -155.4631064 24168.777452
24 650 455 134.0 446.6 203.36106808 41355.724011
23 556,545
24,197.6
MSE MAD
|et|/Yt et/Yt

Nilai awal (initial value) = nilai pengamatan pertama (=Y 1)

MAPE MPE
1. Metode Pemulusan Eksponensial Tunggal

jlh Nilai Pemulusan

t penjualan Yt Yt(hat) et et2 |et|
sepatu (Yt) Yt(hat) (

initial value 0.5 500

1 500 250 250
2 350 175 250 500 -150 22500
3 250 125 212.5 425.0 -175 30625
4 400 200 168.8 337.5 62.5 3906.25
5 450 225 184.4 368.8 81.25 6601.5625
6 350 175 204.7 409.4 -59.375 3525.390625
7 200 100 189.8 379.7 -179.6875 32287.597656
8 300 150 144.9 289.8 10.15625 103.14941406
9 350 175 147.5 294.9 55.078125 3033.5998535
10 200 100 161.2 322.5 -122.4609375 14996.681213
11 150 75 130.6 261.2 -111.23046875 12372.217178
12 400 200 102.8 205.6 194.384765625 37785.437107
13 550 275 151.4 302.8 247.192382813 61104.074121
14 350 175 213.2 426.4 -76.403808594 5837.5419676
15 250 125 194.1 388.2 -138.2019043 19099.766351
16 550 275 159.6 319.1 230.899047852 53314.370299
17 550 275 217.3 434.6 115.449523926 13328.592575
18 400 200 246.1 492.3 -92.275238037 8514.7195548
19 350 175 223.1 446.1 -96.137619019 9242.4417906
20 600 300 199.0 398.1 201.931190491 40776.205693
21 750 375 249.5 499.0 250.965595245 62983.729997
22 500 250 312.3 624.5 -124.51720238 15504.533688
23 400 200 281.1 562.3 -162.25860119 26327.85366
24 650 325 240.6 481.1 168.870699406 28517.313118
23 512,288
22,273.4
MSE MAD
|et|/Yt et/Yt

Nilai awal (initial value) = nilai pengamatan pertama (=Y 1)

MAPE MPE
1. Metode Pemulusan Eksponensial Tunggal

jlh Nilai Pemulusan

t penjualan Yt Yt(hat) et et2 |et|
sepatu (Yt) Yt(hat) (

initial value 0.3 500

1 500 150 350
2 350 105 350 500 -150 22500
3 250 75 318.5 455.0 -205 42025
4 400 120 275.5 393.5 6.5 42.25
5 450 135 276.8 395.5 54.55 2975.7025
6 350 105 288.3 411.8 -61.815 3821.094225
7 200 60 275.3 393.3 -193.2705 37353.48617
8 300 90 234.7 335.3 -35.28935 1245.3382234
9 350 105 227.3 324.7 25.297455 639.96122948
10 200 60 232.6 332.3 -132.2917815 17501.115452
11 150 45 204.8 292.6 -142.60424705 20335.971277
12 400 120 174.9 249.8 150.177027065 22553.139458
13 550 165 206.4 294.9 255.123918946 65088.214018
14 350 105 260.0 371.4 -21.413256738 458.52756413
15 250 75 255.5 365.0 -114.98927972 13222.53445
16 550 165 231.3 330.5 219.507504198 48183.544399
17 550 165 277.4 396.3 153.655252939 23609.936756
18 400 120 309.7 442.4 -42.441322943 1801.2658931
19 350 105 300.8 429.7 -79.70892606 6353.5128936
20 600 180 284.1 405.8 194.203751758 37715.097197
21 750 225 324.8 464.1 285.942626231 81763.185496
22 500 150 384.9 549.8 -49.840161639 2484.0417122
23 400 120 374.4 534.9 -134.88811315 18194.803068
24 650 195 346.1 494.4 155.578320797 24204.613902
23 494,072
21,481.4
MSE MAD
|et|/Yt et/Yt

Nilai awal (initial value) = nilai pengamatan pertama (=Y 1)

MAPE MPE
1. Metode Pemulusan Eksponensial Tunggal

jlh Nilai Pemulusan

t penjualan Yt Yt(hat) et et2 |et|
sepatu (Yt) Yt(hat) (

initial value 0.1 500

1 500 50 450
2 350 35 450 500 -150 22500
3 250 25 436.5 485.0 -235 55225
4 400 40 415.4 461.5 -61.5 3782.25
5 450 45 409.8 455.4 -5.35 28.6225
6 350 35 409.3 454.8 -104.815 10986.184225
7 200 20 399.9 444.3 -244.3335 59698.859222
8 300 30 377.9 419.9 -119.90015 14376.04597
9 350 35 367.1 407.9 -57.910135 3353.5837357
10 200 20 361.9 402.1 -202.1191215 40852.139276
11 150 15 343.7 381.9 -231.90720935 53780.953749
12 400 40 322.8 358.7 41.283511585 1704.3283288
13 550 55 326.6 362.8 187.155160427 35027.054074
14 350 35 343.4 381.6 -31.560355616 996.05604662
15 250 25 340.6 378.4 -128.40432005 16487.669409
16 550 55 329.0 365.6 184.436111951 34016.679392
17 550 55 345.6 384.0 165.992500756 27553.510307
18 400 40 360.5 400.6 -0.6067493198 0.368144737
19 350 35 360.5 400.5 -50.546074388 2554.905636
20 600 60 355.9 395.5 204.508533051 41823.740091
21 750 75 374.3 415.9 334.057679746 111594.5334
22 500 50 404.4 449.3 50.6519117713 2565.6161661
23 400 40 409.0 454.4 -54.413279406 2960.8049757
24 650 65 404.1 449.0 201.028048535 40412.3
23 582,281
25,316.6
MSE MAD

500 500 0
485 485 0
461.5 461.5 0
455.35 455.35 0
454.815 454.815 0
444.3335 444.3335 0
419.9002 419.90015 0.00005
407.9101 407.910135 -0.000035
402.1191 402.1191215 -0.0000215
381.9072 381.9072094 -0.00000935
358.7165 358.7164884 0.000011585
362.8448 362.8448396 -3.95735000E-005
381.5604 381.5603556 4.43838500E-005
378.4043 378.4043201 -2.00545351E-005
365.5639 365.563888 1.19509185E-005
384.0075 384.0074992 7.55826591E-007
400.6067 400.6067493 -4.93197561E-005
400.5461 400.5460744 2.56122195E-005
395.4915 395.4914669 0.000033051
415.9423 415.9423203 -2.02541023E-005
449.3481 449.3480882 1.17713080E-005
454.4133 454.4132794 2.05941772E-005
448.972 448.9719515 4.85347594E-005
469.0748
|et|/Yt et/Yt

Nilai awal (initial value) = nilai pengamatan pertama (=Y 1)

MAPE MPE
1. Metode Pemulusan Eksponensial Tunggal
Nilai
jlh penjualan Pemulusan
t Yt Yt(hat) et e t2 |et| |et|/Yt
sepatu (Yt) Yt(hat) (

initial value 375

1 500 300 150
2 350 210 180 450 -100 10000
3 250 150 156 390 -140 19600
4 400 240 122.4 306 94 8836
5 450 270 144.96 362.4 87.6 7674
6 350 210 165.984 414.96 -64.96 4220
7 200 120 150.3936 375.984 -175.984 30970
8 300 180 108.15744 270.3936 29.6064 877
9 350 210 115.262976 288.15744 61.84256 3825
10 200 120 130.1051904 325.262976 -125.263 15691
11 150 90 100.04207616 250.1051904 -100.1052 10021
12 400 240 76.016830464 190.04207616 209.9579 44082
13 550 330 126.4067321856 316.016830464 233.9832 54748
14 350 210 182.5626928742 456.4067321856 -106.4067 11322
15 250 150 157.0250771497 392.5626928742 -142.5627 20324
16 550 330 122.8100308599 307.0250771497 242.9749 59037
17 550 330 181.124012344 452.8100308599 97.18997 9446
18 400 240 204.4496049376 511.124012344 -111.124 12349
19 350 210 177.779841975 444.4496049376 -94.4496 8921
20 600 360 155.11193679 387.779841975 212.2202 45037
21 750 450 206.044774716 515.11193679 234.8881 55172
22 500 300 262.4179098864 656.044774716 -156.0448 24350
23 400 240 224.9671639546 562.4179098864 -162.4179 26380
24 650 390 185.9868655818 464.9671639546 185.0328 34237
23 517118
22,483
MSE MAD MAPE
et/Yt

Nilai awal (initial value) = rata-rata 4 data pertama

MPE
1. Metode Pemulusan Eksponensial Tunggal

Nilai
jlh penjualan
t sepatu (Yt) Yt Yt(hat) Pemulusan et e t2 |et| |et|/Yt et/Yt
Yt(hat) (

initial value 383.3333333333

1 500 170 253
2 350 119 279.18 423 -73 5329
3 250 85 262.7988 398.18 -148.18 21957
4 400 136 229.547208 347.7988 52.2012 2725
5 450 153 241.26115728 365.547208 84.4528 7132
6 350 119 260.212363805 394.26115728 -44.261 1959
7 200 68 250.280160111 379.2123638048 -179.21 32117
8 300 102 210.064905673 318.2801601112 -18.28 334
9 350 119 205.962837744 312.0649056734 37.9351 1439
10 200 68 214.475472911 324.9628377444 -124.96 15616
11 150 51 186.433812121 282.4754729113 -132.48 17550
12 400 136 156.706316 237.4338121215 162.566 26428
13 550 187 193.18616856 292.7063160002 257.294 66200
14 350 119 250.92287125 380.1861685601 -30.186 911
15 250 85 244.149095025 369.9228712497 -119.92 14381
16 550 187 217.238402716 329.1490950248 220.851 48775
17 550 187 266.797345793 404.2384027164 145.762 21246
18 400 136 299.506248223 453.7973457928 -53.797 2894
19 350 119 287.434123827 435.5062482232 -85.506 7311
20 600 204 268.246521726 406.4341238273 193.566 37468
21 750 255 311.682704339 472.246521726 277.753 77147
22 500 170 374.010584864 566.6827043392 -66.683 4447
23 400 136 359.04698601 544.0105848639 -144.01 20739
24 650 221 326.731010767 495.0469860102 154.953 24010
23 458,117
19918.11849
MSE MAD MAPE MPE
Nilai awal (initial value) = rata-rata 6 data pertama
 800
jlh penjualan Nilai Pemulusan Nilai Pemulusan Nilai Pemulusan
t 700
sepatu (Yt) Yt(hat) ( Yt(hat) ( Yt(hat) (
initial value 600
1 500
500
2 350 500 450 423
3 250 485 390 398.18 400
4 400 461.5 306 347.7988
5 450 455.35 362.4 365.547208 300
6 350 454.815 414.96 394.26115728
200
7 200 444.3335 375.984 379.2123638048
8 300 419.90015 270.3936 318.2801601112 100
9 350 407.910135 288.15744 312.0649056734
10 200 402.1191215 325.262976 324.9628377444 0
11 150 381.90720935 250.1051904 282.4754729113 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1
12 400 358.716488415 190.04207616 237.4338121215 0
13 550 362.8448395735 316.016830464 292.7063160002
14 350 381.5603556162 456.4067321856 380.1861685601
15 250 378.4043200545 392.5626928742 369.9228712497
16 550 365.5638880491 307.0250771497 329.1490950248
17 550 384.0074992442 452.8100308599 404.2384027164
18 400 400.6067493198 511.124012344 453.7973457928
19 350 400.5460743878 444.4496049376 435.5062482232
20 600 395.491466949 387.779841975 406.4341238273
21 750 415.9423202541 515.11193679 472.246521726
22 500 449.3480882287 656.044774716 566.6827043392
23 400 454.4132794058 562.4179098864 544.0105848639
24 650 448.9719514652 464.9671639546 495.0469860102

MSE 25,316.57 22,483.40 19,918.12

 Grafiknya :

Yt
Ytopi
1
Ytopi
2

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 0 1 2 3 4
 Nilai
jlh penjualan
t sepatu (Yt) Yt Yt(hat) Pemulusan et e t2 |et| |et|/Yt
Yt(hat) (
initial value
1 500
2 350
3 250
4 400
5 450
6 350
7 200
8 300
9 350
10 200
11 150
12 400
13 550
14 350
15 250
16 550
17 550
18 400
19 350
20 600
21 750
22 500
23 400
24 650
25 850
26 600
27 450
28 700

MSE MAD MAPE

et/Yt

Nilai awal (initial value) = nilai pengamatan pertama (=Y 1)

MPE
 Nilai
jlh penjualan
t sepatu (Yt) Yt Yt(hat) Pemulusan et e t2 |et| |et|/Yt
Yt(hat) (
initial value
1 500
2 350
3 250
4 400
5 450
6 350
7 200
8 300
9 350
10 200
11 150
12 400
13 550
14 350
15 250
16 550
17 550
18 400
19 350
20 600
21 750
22 500
23 400
24 650
25 850
26 600
27 450
28 700

MSE MAD MAPE

et/Yt

Nilai awal (initial value) = rata-rata 5 data pertama

MPE
 jlh penjualan Nilai Pemulusan
t sepatu (Yt) Yt Yt(hat) et e t2 |et| |et|/Yt
Yt(hat) (

initial value
1 500
2 350
3 250
4 400
5 450
6 350
7 200
8 300
9 350
10 200
11 150
12 400
13 550
14 350
15 250
16 550
17 550
18 400
19 350
20 600
21 750
22 500
23 400
24 650
25 850
26 600
27 450
28 700

MSE MAD MAPE

et/Yt

Nilai awal (initial value) = rata-rata 6 data pertama

MPE
 jlh penjualan Nilai Pemulusan Nilai Pemulusan Nilai Pemulusan
t
sepatu (Yt) Yt(hat) ( Yt(hat) ( Yt(hat) (
initial value
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
Grafiknya :