Nama : Adi Atfallah

NIM : A1C015005
Kelompok 1
Assisten : Denisa Liana

Tugas Acara 1

Forecaseting (Peramalan)
Permintaan buah mangga (kg) di U.D Adi Jaya Buah, Pemalang, Jawa Tengah.
Tabel 1. Simple Moving Average

No Month Actual Demand Forecasting Error (Ai-Fi) SE (Ai-Fi)^2

.
1 Mei-17 1267 Na Na Na
2 Jun-17 1520 Na Na Na
3 Jul-17 942 1393,5 -451,5 203852,25
4 Agu-17 1255 1231 24 576
5 Sep-17 839 1098,5 -259,5 67340,25
6 Okt-17 771 1047 -276 76176
7 Nov-17 1338 805 533 284089
8 Des-17 1790 1054,5 735,5 540960,25
9 Jan-18 697 1564 -867 751689
10 Feb-18 1256 1243,5 12,5 156,25
11 Mar-18 536 976,5 -440,5 194040,25
12 Apr-18 1193 896 297 88209
13 Mei-18
Jumlah -692,5 2207088,25
MAD -69,25
MSE 220708,825
RMSE 469,7965783
 Simple Moving Average
2000

1500
Actual Demand
1000 Forecasting

500

0
42948 43009 43070 43132 43191
42917 42979 43040 43101 43160

Gambar 1. Grafik Simple Moving Average

Tabel 2. Weight Moving Average

No Month Actual Demand Forecasting Error (Ai-Fi) SE (Ai-Fi)^2

1 Mei-17 1267 Na Na Na
2 Jun-17 1520 Na Na Na
3 Jul-17 942 1435,666667 -493,6666667 243706,7778
4 Agu-17 1255 1134,666667 120,3333333 14480,11111
5 Sep-17 839 1150,666667 -311,6666667 97136,11111
6 Okt-17 771 977,6666667 -206,6666667 42711,11111
7 Nov-17 1338 793,6666667 544,3333333 296298,7778
8 Des-17 1790 1149 641 410881
9 Jan-18 697 1639,333333 -942,3333333 887992,1111
10 Feb-18 1256 1061,333333 194,6666667 37895,11111
11 Mar-18 536 1069,666667 -533,6666667 284800,1111
12 Apr-18 1193 776 417 173889
13 Mei-18
Jumlah -570,6666667 2489790,222
MAD -57,06666667
MSE 248979,0222
RMSE 498,9779777
 Weighted Moving Averages
2000

1500
Actual Demand
1000 Forecasting

500

0
42948 43009 43070 43132 43191
42917 42979 43040 43101 43160

Gambar 2. Grafik Weight Moving Average

Tabel 3. Exponential Smoothing

No Month Actual Demand Forecasting Error (Ai-Fi) SE (Ai-Fi)^2

1 Mei-17 1267 1267 0 0
2 Jun-17 1520 1267 253 64009
3 Jul-17 942 1292,3 -350,3 122710,09
4 Agu-17 1255 1257,27 -2,27 5,1529
5 Sep-17 839 1257,043 -418,043 174759,9498
6 Okt-17 771 1215,2387 -444,2387 197348,0226
7 Nov-17 1338 1170,81483 167,18517 27950,88107
8 Des-17 1790 1187,533347 602,466653 362966,068
9 Jan-18 697 1247,780012 -550,780012 303358,6219
10 Feb-18 1256 1192,702011 63,29798893 4006,635403
11 Mar-18 536 1199,03181 -663,03181 439611,181
12 Apr-18 1193 1132,728629 60,27137103 3632,638166
13 Mei-18
Jumlah -1282,44234 1700358,241
MAD -106,870195
MSE 141696,5201
RMSE 376,4259822
 Exponential Smoothing
2000

1500
Actual Demand
1000 Forecasting

500

0
42887 42948 43009 43070 43132 43191
42856 42917 42979 43040 43101 43160

Gambar 3. Grafik Exponential Smoothing

Rumus :

1. Simple Moving Average

F = (At + At-1 +At-2) / n
2. Weight Moving Average
F = ((At*1) + (At-1*2) + (At-2*3)) / bobot n
3. Exponensial Smoothing
Ft = Ft-1 + (At-1 Ft-1)
4. MAD = (Ai Fi) / n
5. MSE = (Ai Fi)2 / n
6. RMSE = MSE