CALCULO DE LA POBLACION FUTURA PARA UN PERIODO DE DISEO DE 20 AOS

Metodo Aritmetico

Ao de censo N de Habitantes
2000 42,966
2001 44,200
2002 45,434
2003 46,665
2004 47,892
2005 49,112
2006 50,308
2007 51,483
2008 52,657
2009 53,851
2010 55,089
2011 56,375
2012 57,692
2013 59,039
2014 60,407
2015 61,790

METODO GEOMETRICO

Ao de censo N de Habitantes INCREMENTO

2000 42,966 0
2001 44,200 1,234
2002 45,434 1,234
2003 46,665 1,231
2004 47,892 1,227
2005 49,112 1,220
2006 50,308 1,196
2007 51,483 1,175
2008 52,657 1,174
2009 53,851 1,194
2010 55,089 1,238
2011 56,375 1,286
2012 57,692 1,317
2013 59,039 1,347
2014 60,407 1,368
 2015 61,790 1,383

METODO GEOMETRICO LOGARITMICO

Ao de censo N de Habitantes Log.pob.

2000 42,966 4.6331249241
2001 44,200 4.6454222693
2002 45,434 4.6573809737
2003 46,665 4.6689912702
2004 47,892 4.6802629738
2005 49,112 4.6911876204
2006 50,308 4.7016370522
2007 51,483 4.711663846
2008 52,657 4.7214561126
2009 53,851 4.7311937725
2010 55,089 4.7410648889
2011 56,375 4.7510865549
2012 57,692 4.7611155948
2013 59,039 4.7711389928
2014 60,407 4.7810872678
2015 61,790 4.7909181952

METODO DE INCREMENTO DIFERENCIALES

Ao de censo N de Habitantes INCREMENTO

2000 42,966 0
2001 44,200 1,234
2002 45,434 1,234
2003 46,665 1,231
2004 47,892 1,227
2005 49,112 1,220
2006 50,308 1,196
2007 51,483 1,175
2008 52,657 1,174
2009 53,851 1,194
2010 55,089 1,238
2011 56,375 1,286
2012 57,692 1,317
2013 59,039 1,347
 2014 60,407 1,368
2015 61,790 1,383
18,824

METODO LOGARITMICO

Solucin:
X= (2035-2015)/10 =

Log Pf2035 = Log (61790) + (Log(61790)-Log(60407)/10)*2^20

Log Pf2035 = 1035.64

Log Pf2035 = Antilog 1035.64

= #NUM!

METODO DE MALTHUS

Ao de censo N de Habitantes INCREMENTO

2000 42,966 0
2001 44,200 1,234
2002 45,434 1,234
2003 46,665 1,231
2004 47,892 1,227
2005 49,112 1,220
2006 50,308 1,196
2007 51,483 1,175
2008 52,657 1,174
2009 53,851 1,194
2010 55,089 1,238
 2011 56,375 1,286
2012 57,692 1,317
2013 59,039 1,347
2014 60,407 1,368
2015 61,790 1,383
18,824

MINIMOS CUADRADOS

N Ao de censo(t) N de Habitantes(p)
1 2000 42,966
2 2001 44,200
3 2002 45,434
4 2003 46,665
5 2004 47,892
6 2005 49,112
7 2006 50,308
8 2007 51,483
9 2008 52,657
10 2009 53,851
11 2010 55,089
12 2011 56,375
13 2012 57,692
14 2013 59,039
15 2014 60,407
16 2015 61,790
sumatoria 32120 834,960

sustituamos valores:

b= (16*(1,676,603,709) - (32120)(834,960))/16(64,4
b= 1239.73

a= (834960 -1239.732*32120)/16
a= -2436577.69852941

Pf= 63493

T= (16*(1,676,603,709) - (32120)(834,960))/((64,48
 5.80E-07

METODO PARABOLA

N Ao de censo(t) N de Habitantes(p)
1 2000 42,966
2 2001 44,200
3 2002 45,434
4 2003 46,665
5 2004 47,892
6 2005 49,112
7 2006 50,308
8 2007 51,483
9 2008 52,657
10 2009 53,851
11 2010 55,089
12 2011 56,375
13 2012 57,692
14 2013 59,039
15 2014 60,407
16 2015 61,790

CLCULO FINAL DE LA P
POBLACIN
ARITMTICO GEOMTRICO
AO
20 86889 92092
ODO DE DISEO DE 20 AOS

N= 20 Aos
I = (61,790 + 42,966)/15

I= 1255 Habitantes

Pf= 61,790 + 1254.933*20

Pf= 86889 Habitantes

%INCREMENTO
0
2.8720
2.7919
2.7094
2.6294
2.5474
2.4353
2.3356 I= 36.780/15
2.2804 I= 2.452
2.2675
2.2989 Pf= 61,790 + 61,790(2.452/100)*20
2.3344 Pf= 92092
2.3361
2.3348
2.3171
 2.2895
36.780

(Log 1 + r)
DIFERENCIA (Dife/10)
0 0
0.0122973452 0.00123 Promedio Log(1+r)=
0.0119587043 0.00120
0.0116102965 0.00116
0.0112717037 0.00113
0.0109246465 0.00109 Log Pf= 4.81196
0.0104494319 0.00104
0.0100267938 0.00100 Pf= Anti Log (4.81196)
0.0097922666 0.00098 Pf= 64857
0.0097376598 0.00097
0.0098711165 0.00099
0.0100216659 0.00100
0.01002904 0.00100
0.010023398 0.00100
0.009948275 0.00099
0.0098309274 0.00098
0.01578

Incre. De incre.
0
0
0
0
0 Promedio=
0 Promedio=
0
0 Promedio=
0 Promedio=
20
44 Promedio incremento decenal = 1254.93 + 29.8
48 =
31
30
 21
15 Pf= 61,790 + 1285
209 Pf= 63,075

Ao de censo N de Habitantes
2000 42,966
2001 44,200
2002 45,434
2003 46,665
2004 47,892
2005 49,112
2006 50,308
2 2007 51,483
2008 52,657
60407)/10)*2^20 2009 53,851
2010 55,089
2011 56,375
2012 57,692
2013 59,039
2014 60,407
2015 61,790

INCREMENTO DEC.
0
0.0287
0.0279
0.0271
0.0263
0.0255
0.0244 a = Promedio Incremento Decimal =
0.0234
0.0228
0.0227 r= (2035 - 2015)/10 = 2
0.0230
 0.0233 Pf = 61,790*(1 + 0.0368)^2
0.0234 Pf = 66419 Habitantes
0.0233
0.0232
0.0229
0.3678

t2 p2 (t)(p)
4000000 1,846,077,156 85932000
4004001 1,953,640,000 88444200
4008004 2,064,248,356 90958868
4012009 2,177,622,225 93469995
4016016 2,293,643,664 95975568
4020025 2,411,988,544 98469560
4024036 2,530,894,864 100917848
4028049 2,650,499,289 103326381
4032064 2,772,759,649 105735256
4036081 2,899,930,201 108186659
4040100 3,034,797,921 110728890
4044121 3,178,140,625 113370125
4048144 3,328,366,864 116076304
4052169 3,485,603,521 118845507
4056196 3,649,005,649 121659698
4060225 3,818,004,100 124506850
64481240 44,095,222,628 1676603709

603,709) - (32120)(834,960))/16(64,481240)-(32,120)^2

239.732*32120)/16

603,709) - (32120)(834,960))/((64,481,240-(32120)^2)*((16*44,095,222,628)-(834,960)^2))^0.5
 N Ao de censo(t) N de Habitantes(p)
1 2000 42,966
2 2007 51,483
3 2015 61,790

42966 = 0*A + 0*B + C c=

51483= (7^2)*A +(7*B) + C B=
61790 = (8^2)*A + (8*B) + C A=

= 2015-2000 = 15

Pf= 8516*15^2 +7687*15 + 42966

Pf= 158271 Habitantes

LO FINAL DE LA POBLACIN PROYECTADA

GEOMTRICO INCREMENTO
LOGARTMICO MALTHUS
LOGARTMICO DIFERENCIALES
64857 63075 Indeterminado 66419
 DATOS OBTENIDOS DEL INEI

790(2.452/100)*20
Habitantes
 0.001052

Habitantes

18,824/15
1254.93

209/7
29.86

1254.93 + 29.86
1285
Habitantes

INCREMENTO Incre. De incre.

0 0
1,234 0
1,234 0
1,231 0
1,227 0
1,220 0
1,196 0
1,175 0
1,174 0
1,194 20
1,238 44
1,286 48
1,317 31
1,347 30
1,368 21
1,383 15
18,824 209

0.3678/10
= 0.0368
0)^2))^0.5
 Diferencia(t)
0
7
8

42,966
7687
8516

DA
MNIMOS
PARBOLA
CUADRADOS
No cumple 158271
CLCLO DE DOTACIN