2016 Vol.2 No.

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4


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KINU +
2016 Vol.2 No.1

:
:
:
: 2-02361 (97.4.23)
: 2016 2 29
: (137-756) 217
: 02-2023-8000
: http://www.kinu.or.kr

, 2016
,
.

C o n te n ts

| _v

| _vii

4 _02

1 _35
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|

2 _51
Is the American Century Over?, Joseph. S. Nye Jr.
|

3 _63
The Politics of Authoritarian Rule, Milan W. Svolik
|


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| , 2
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4

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4 | 31


1
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Is the American Century Over?, Joseph. S. Nye Jr.
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3
The Politics of Authoritarian Rule, Milan W. Svolik
|


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_ | 35
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_ | 37
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_ | 41
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_ | 43
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http://www.yonhapnews.co.kr/bulletin/2015/01/30/0200000000AKR2015013
0169600002.HTML?input=1195m

_ | 49


- Joseph. S. Nye Jr. Is the American Century Over?

1 12 .
,
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(White House 2016).

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_ | 51
 .

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(progressive pragmatism)
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.
,

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(Joseph S. Nye Jr.) <Is the American

Century Over?>(2015)
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52 | KINU + 2016
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,

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(liberal
internationalism), (neoconservatism),
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(restraint) .

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_ | 53

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54 | KINU + 2016

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(maximalist) (retrenchment)
.

_ | 55
 (multilateral retrenchment)

.
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58 | KINU + 2016
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_ | 59
.
(Smeltz, Daalder and Kafura, 2014),

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,

.

.
2016
,
.

60 | KINU + 2016


Fallows, James. How America can Rise Again. The Atlantic, January/
February 2010.

Huntington, Samuel P. The U.S. Decline or Renewal? Foreign Affairs

Vol. 62, No. 2. 1988/89.

Nye Jr. Joseph S., Is the American Century Over? Malden: Polity Press,
2015.

O Hanron, Michael. President Obama: Reluctant Realist. Brookings Up

Front. March 16, 2012.
__________________. Bending History: Barack Obama s Foreign Policy.
Washington DC: Brookings Institution Press, 2012.

Sestanovich, Stephen. Maximalist. New York: Knopf, 2014.

Sitaraman, Ganesh. Progressive Pragmatism, The American Interests.

Vol. 9. No. 5. 2014.

Smeltz, Dina, Ivo Daalder, and Craig Kafura. Foreign Policy in the Age of
Retrenchment. Chicago: Chicago Council on Global Affairs. 2014
Streich. Gregory W. and Khalil Marrar. President Obama and American
Exceptionalism: Is the United States an Indispensable Nation in a
Multipolar World? In The Global Obama: Crossroad of Leadership in
the 21st Century, edited by Dinesh Shama and Uwe P. Gielen. New
York: Routledge, 2014.

White House. Remarks of President Barack Obama-State of the Union

Address as Delivered. The White House Office of the Press
Secretary. January 13, 2016.

_ | 61


- The Politics of Authoritarian Rule, Milan W. Svolik

(Milan W. Svolik) 2012

(The Politics of Authoritarian Rule) .
, ,
,
(allies) , .
,
.

3 . (Arendt 1951),
(Fredrich Brzezinski 1965) .
, (Croissant,
Wurster 2013, 2). (Linz) .
, ,

_ | 63
(Linz 1975, 2000; Linz Cehabi 1998),
. (Guillermo
A. O' Donnell)

(O' Donnell 1979).
(Kllner,
Kailitz 2013, 2).

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Huntington) 1974 15 30
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.

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(Croissant, Wurster 2013, 2).

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. 2015 51(26%)
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. (Babara Geddes)
3 ,
.
(Kllner, Kailitz 2013, 2).
(Carothers 2002), (Ottaway 2003),
(Levitsky Way 2002, 2010), (Diamond 2002;

64 | KINU + 2016
Schedler 2006), (Svolik 2008)
(Merkel 2010, 18). .

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_ | 65
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66 | KINU + 2016
.

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_ | 67
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68 | KINU + 2016
.

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_ | 69
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70 | KINU + 2016
 .
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_ | 71
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72 | KINU + 2016


, , . 3 : 20 .
: , 2011.

Aghekyan, Elen et. al, Freedom in the World 2015. Freedom House, 2015.

Croissant, Aurel, Stefan Wurster. Performance and Persistence of

Autocracies in Comparison: Introducing Issues and Perspectives.
Contemporary Politics. Vol. 19, No. 1. 2013.
Geddes, Barbara. Paradigms and Sand Castles: Theory Building and Research
Design in Comparative Politics. Ann Arbor, MI: University of
Michigan Press, 2003.

_______________. What Do We Know about Democratization after Twenty

Years? Annual Review of Political Science 2, 1999

Kllner, Patrick, Steffen Kailitz. Comparing Autocracies: Theoretical Issues

and Empirical Analyses. Democratization. Vol. 20, No. 1, 2013.

Linz, Juan J., H. E. Chehabi. Sultanistic Regimes. Baltimore, MD: Johns

Hopkins University Press, 1998.

Merkel, Wolfgang. Are Dictatorships Returning? Revisiting the Democratic

Rollback Hypothesis. Contemporary Politics, Vol. 16, No. 1. 2010.

Przeworski, Adam, et al, Democracy and Development; Political Institutions

and Well-Being in the World, 1950-1990. New York: Cambridge
University Press, 2000.

Svolik, Milan W., The Politics of Authoritarian Rule. Cambridge: Cambridge

University Press, 2012.

_ | 73
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. .

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 2016 Vol.2 No.1

2016 Vol.2 No.1
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