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Facebooks global
economicimpact
A report for Facebook
January 2015
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Contents
Executive summary 1
1. Introduction 4
2. Marketing effects 6
3. Platform effects 8
4. Connectivity effects 10
Appendix 12
A1. Methodologyoverview 13
A3. Econometricanalysis 27
Executive summary
This study Facebook connects more than 1.35bn people with their Thisbroad economic impact enables far more
friends and families around the world, and helps them revenue and jobs for global and local economies than
analyses how discover new products and services from local and Facebooks own company operations. Other notable
Facebook global businesses. Itis acatalyst for economic activity findings include:
stimulates in ecosystems composed of marketers, app developers,
The United States is estimated to capture the largest
economic and providers of connectivity.
share of economic impact, $100bn;
activity by This study analyses how Facebook stimulates economic
providing tools activity and jobs through three broad effects: as atool High rates of engagement enabled $21bn of
for marketers, for the biggest and smallest of marketers; as aplatform economic impact in Central and South America;
for app development; and as acatalyst for connectivity.
aplatform for Itestimates that through these channels Facebook The thriving app economy in EMEA has generated
app developers, enabled $227bn of economic impact and 4.5m jobs $13bn of economic impact for the region; and
and demand for globally in 2014. Theseeffects accrue to third parties
connectivity. that operate in Facebooks ecosystem, and exclude the Facebook has contributed $13bn of economic impact
operations of the company itself. in APAC, owing to demand for Facebookmotivated
data usage and device purchases.
Facebooks business model focuses on tools that
allow businesses to reach new and existing customers In addition, Facebook facilitates economic activity as it:
through Pages and advertising. Thesetools help
businesses from the least technical to the most Allows new and traditional businesses all over
grow their sales, and ultimately employ more people. the world to reach customers locally, nationally,
Marketingeffects, worth an estimated $148bn, form andglobally;
Facebooks the largest share of the economic impact facilitated by
broad economic Facebook through third parties in 2014. Inaddition, Reduces barriers to marketing by helping businesses
impact enables Facebook developer tools that power and enhance of all sizes raise awareness of their brands and
far more 3rd party apps enabled an estimated $29bn of find the people most likely to be interested in their
economic impact. Thepurchases of mobile devices products and services;
revenue and and connectivity services motivated by Facebook
jobs for global contributed an estimated $50bn of economic impact. Supports entrepreneurship by providing away for
and local businesses to promote their activities;
Internetbased businesses such as Facebook facilitate
economies than broader economic activity across aseries of economic Enables new ecosystems such as the app economy
Facebooks agents. Suchbroad impact is far greater than these that stimulate innovation and generate jobs; and
own company businesses own size: in 2014 Facebook acompany
operations. with an approximately $8bn cost base enabled global Increases demand for mobile devices and internet
economic impact of $227bn. services that carry positive spillovers to other parts
of the economy.
1
This study estimates the global economic impact and The economic impact estimates include employee
the number of jobs Facebook enabled in its ecosystem spending and economic activity generated in the supply
in 2014. Byanalysing the impact across North America, chains of the companies directly active on Facebook,
Central and South America, Europe, Middle East and and exclude intermediate costs. Aproportion of the
Africa (EMEA), and AsiaPacific (APAC), the study economic activity supported by Facebook existed
captures the diversity of Facebooks contributions prior to Facebooks emergence. Inorder to attribute
across different regions. reasonable value to Facebook, economic impact and
jobs figures presented in this study exclude activity
estimated to have been displaced. Assuch, the results
of the study are estimates of new economic activity
enabled by Facebook in the relevant ecosystems.
Platform
effects
$29bn
2
Macroregional impact All effects* Total country impact All effects
Italy $6 70
India $4 335
Japan $3 34
Australia $6 62
3
1. Introduction
Facebook was started in February 2004 by This study uses economic and econometric modelling Facebook
MarkZuckerberg as asocial network for students to analyse the effects Facebook enables for third party
at Harvard University. Withinthe busy university businesses that use the platform. Thestudy analyses
has become
community, Facebook was envisioned as aspace to Facebooks broad economic impact through:6 ahub that
connect with friends and promote openness for ideas democratizes
Marketing effects: the economic impact of Facebook
and interests. Thevision of making the world amore
for businesses that use it as marketing platform to
marketing:
open place has remained with the company as it has
grown into one of the largest in the world.1 connect with consumers and build brand value; it facilitates
economic
Following its launch at Harvard and other universities Platform effects: the impact in the developer app activity for
in the United States and abroad, Facebook expanded economy; and
to the general population in 2006.2Its latest focus on
businesses of
improving the experience on mobile platforms and Connectivity effects: the impact created through all sizes.
promoting connectivity has helped the company to thesale of mobile devices and internet connectivity.
grow in developing markets such as Brazil, Indonesia,
and India. Facebooks expansion into new markets These effects flow through new as well as traditional
has unlocked new opportunities to enable economic industries, impacting many businesses across sectors.
impact within and outside of its platform. Inaddition to direct economic impact experienced
by businesses leveraging Facebook, the study also
In 2014 more than 1.35bn people around the world log estimates the effects on companies in those businesses
into Facebook at least once amonth, a14% increase supply chains and those with whom employees spend
compared to ayear ago. Morethan 83% of people their income. Theseare referred to as indirect and
active on the platform log in via their mobile devices induced effects respectively.
and many of them return to check their News feed
multiple times aday. Inthe United States, for example, The study estimates the new economic activity enabled
Facebook accounts for nearly 20% of all time spent through Facebooks emergence and growth in the
Facebooks
on mobile. Altogetherpeople on Facebook represent relevant ecosystems. Itis expected that some of the broad economic
the largest audience in the world that is reachable on economic activity currently supported by Facebook impact flows
asingle platform.3 existed prior to the platforms development. Inorder through new
to attribute reasonable value to Facebook, the results
Through its wide reach and high user engagement, of the study estimate the economic activity enabled
as well as
Facebook provides businesses of all sizes and technical by Facebook after deducting preexisting activity traditional
sophistication with asignificant opportunity to speak estimated to have been displaced. industries,
directly with their customers. Asof June 2014, more
than 30m small and mediumsized businesses (SMBs) The platform has other effects from supporting
benefiting many
have established aFacebook Page, and more than 1.5m innovation to broader social benefits which go beyond businesses
companies actively use Facebooks targeted advertising the impact measured in this study. across sectors.
system to reach potential customers.4Thenumber of
active advertisers has grown by more five hundred
thousand, or 50%, since June 2013.5Asaresult,
Facebook has become ahub that democratizes
marketing: it facilitates economic activity for businesses
of all sizes.
4
Economic impact is estimated in four macro Estimates in this study are based on Facebook data for
regions: Europe, Middle East and Africa (EMEA), the twelve month period between October 1, 2013
AsiaPacific (APAC), North America, and Central and andOctober 1, 2014 and results are referred to as for
SouthAmerica.7In addition, results are disaggregated the year 2014.
for anumber of markets selected by Facebook.
The methodology is described in detail in the Appendix.
1,600
1,400
1,200
1,000
800
600
400
200
0
Q3 12 Q4 12 Q1 13 Q2 13 Q3 13 Q4 13 Q1 14 Q2 14 Q3 14
Total Mobile
5
2. Marketingeffects
Marketing effects estimate the impact from businesses Furthermore, businesses also benefit when people
use of Facebook marketing tools to drive online and share links to their websites with their friends.
Businesses
offline sales, and to increase awareness of their brand. Sharingof links can have significant effects on sales increasingly
and fundraising. Forexample, Facebook helped spread use Facebooks
Facebook gives marketers of all sizes the ability to reach
an audience of more than 1.35bn people through
awareness about the Ice bucket challenge initiative marketing tools
that raised $100m in donations to fund research for the
aset of products that connect businesses and people, cure of amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS).10, 11
to grow.
including Pages and targeted advertising.9
Integration of advertising into Facebooks mobile
Businesses increasingly use Facebooks marketing tools platform gives marketers the ability to connect with
to grow: via Pages and ads they can effectively acquire people regardless of the device being used and
and retain customers and increase brand awareness. capitalize on the high popularity of Facebooks app.
Conversely,people can use Facebook to discover new Inaddition to providing achannel for discovery,
companies and brands or connect with businesses that businesses can also use their online presence on Pages
they already know. Facebooks marketing tools are to get customer feedback, crowdsource ideas, and
used by both online and brickandmortar businesses
and are accessible globally. Inaddition to businesses,
recruit potential employees.
Governments,
governments, nonprofits and other civil society By using these marketing tools to reach their nonprofits
organizations also use Facebook to stay in touch with customers, businesses can increase sales locally, and other
their members and constituents, which in turn enables nationally, and globally and generate significant
civil society
economic and social value. Theseorganizations benefit economic impact, no matter their size, location,
from the discovery and free flow of ideas that come industry, or technical sophistication.
organizations
from Facebooks open communication platform. also benefit
Results
from the
The report considers three sources of effects that It is estimated that the marketing effect of Facebook
create economic impact from marketing: Pages, in 2014 enabled $148bn of economic impact and
discovery and
targeted advertising and referrals. 2.3m jobs globally. NorthAmerica, which contains free flow of
Facebooks largest market, the US, captured nearly ideas that
Pages provide businesses with away to establish or
enhance their presence online across desktop, mobile
half of the overall global economic impact ($81bn and
come from
870,000jobs) through amix of active advertising spend
and tablet. OnFacebook people can discover Pages and high page engagement.
Facebooks open
that are relevant to their interests. Targetedadvertising, communication
based on characteristics of Facebooks audience, After the US, Brazil ranks as second in terms
platform.
allows marketers to deliver messages at scale to their of economic impact from marketing globally.
most likely customers, which can increase return on Thecountrys large population and highly engaged
advertising. base of people on Facebook have contributed
to an estimated economic impact of $8.4bn and
The costeffectiveness of advertising for businesses is 189,000jobs. Economicimpact in the United
derived from the ability to target the relevant audience. Kingdom is estimated to be the third highest in the
Aggregatedinsights collected during their advertising world at $6.6bn and 89,000jobs, as aresult of active
campaigns allow businesses to further finetune their advertising and engagement in this region.
campaigns. Facebooks selfservice, auctionbased
ad tool lets marketers of all sizes create campaigns at
scale. Thesefeatures lower the barriers to advertising
and allow companies that would not be able to
advertise in traditional channels to take advantage of
promoting their products and services.
6
Macroregional impact Marketing effects* Country impact Marketing effects12
Italy $3.0 36
Japan $1.3 13
Australia $4.1 44
7
3. Platformeffects
Platform effects estimate the economic impact from Facebook has helped to establish anew genre of The Facebook
3rd party products and services built atop of the apps centred on introducing social aspects into the
platform
Facebook platform. TheFacebook platform provides experience by seamlessly allowing people to compete,
app developers with significant opportunities for collaborate, or compare themselves against their
provides app
discovery and monetisation of their apps, enabling friends. TheFacebook App Center serves as ahub for developers
economic activity and jobs. discovery of new apps that can be used on Facebook. with significant
The Facebook developer platform was first created in
Developersmonetise their apps through inapp
opportunities for
purchases within Facebook or through other channels,
2007 as away for programmers to incorporate the including inapp advertising or charging for downloads.
discovery and
Facebook experience into their apps.13The platform, Over80% and 90% of top grossing apps in the United monetisation of
which originally only supported applications running States on iOS and Android respectively are integrated their apps.
within the Facebook website, has expanded to allow with Facebook, which demonstrates the impact the
developers of native iPhone, Android and other platform has enabled for developers.15
platforms to build, grow and monetise their apps
within and outside of Facebook.14Apps of all types Website owners use social plugins to embed
and audiences can both integrate Facebook features Facebooks sharing and commenting functionality into
and power their infrastructure with Facebook cloud their sites, driving content distribution. Byallowing
services. ThroughFacebooks developer tools, app their visitors to engage with content, website publishers
creators provide aconsistent crossplatform experience can increase the time readers spend on their website,
within both Facebook and native apps. making it more valuable for advertisers. Inaddition,
the sharing functionality brings more people to their
The products on Facebooks platform allow developers, websites and further increases sales conversions and
with the persons permission, to customize their apps. advertising revenues.
Thesefeatures are especially powerful for gaming apps,
for instance, which has led to adevelopment of anew The platform effects also include the economic impact By facilitating
niche of social gaming as well asinnovations in the of events that are organized through Facebooks events the creation,
travel and music industries. feature. Thesimplified process of setting up an event
and inviting friends allows higher participation and
promotion and
Apps integrate with Facebook to enhance customer increased spending. monetisation
experience, acquisition, and retention and can use of new apps,
advertising to drive installs or engagement. Theseapps The app economy creates economic impact through the
leverage the Facebook developer platform to revenues enabled by the Facebook platform, in addition
Facebook fosters
enhance their business proposition and increase sales to traffic from social plugins. Throughfacilitating entrepreneurial
conversions. Furthermore,developers can extend the creation, promotion, and monetisation of new activity and
their reach and monetise their apps with ads from applications, Facebook fosters entrepreneurial activity generates
Facebooks advertisers through the Facebook Audience and generates employment in different places around
Network. the world.16
employment.
8
Results Macroregional impact Platform effects*
It is estimated that the platform effect of Facebook
in 2014 enabled $29bn of economic impact and Region Econ. Jobs
660,000jobs globally. EMEA is the largest beneficiary Impact(bn) (000)
The US app economy generates the largest impact * Numbers may not sum due to rounding.
among individual countries, as aresult of an active
community both in Silicon Valley and the rest of
the country, and contributes to the overall platform Country impact Platform effects
Germany $1.8 27
France $1.8 27
Spain $0.8 16
Italy $0.7 10
Brazil $0.6 17
India $0.5 40
Japan $1 12
Australia $0.6 8
9
4. Connectivityeffects
Connectivity effects create economic impact through Connectivity in developing countries allows people to Developers
Facebookmotivated internet use and purchases take part in the digital economy, stimulates economic
ofdevices. impact, and enables the transition to knowledgebased
of Facebook
economies. Peoplecan then gain access to abroader apps create
Facebook is among the most popular services on digital ecosystem that includes health information, new features
both desktop and mobile measured by the number
of visits as well as the time spent on the platform.
commercial data, and education. Accessto information that fuel the
online, in turn, stimulates commercial and entrepreneurial
TheFacebook mobile app is aparticularly influential activity beyond the effects captured in this study.
innovation loop,
product. Inthe United States people spend nearly which motivates
1in5minutes of their mobile time on Facebook.17 In efforts to bring internet connectivity to more people people to
The companys growth in key emerging markets such in developing countries, Facebook has developed
as India and Brazil is also driven by usage of Facebooks partnerships with local operators and optimized its
purchase new,
mobile apps.18 products for lower speeds and smaller data packages. more powerful
In2013 Facebook unveiled its Internet.org initiative, mobile devices
More than 33% of people active on Facebook log into
the platform exclusively with their mobile device and
partnering with device manufacturers and connectivity and stimulates
providers to bring internet to currently unconnected
this share has been growing steadily.19The Facebook people. Ithas launched the Internet.org app, which
higher data
app and the Facebook Messenger app rank among the allows people in Kenya, Zambia and Tanzania to browse consumption.
top 10most popular free apps in both Apple AppStore health, education and other information services
and on Google Play.20 without incurring data charges.
10
Results Macroregional impact Connectivity effects*
It is estimated that the connectivity effects of Facebook
in 2014 enabled $50bn of economic impact and 1.6m Region Econ. Jobs
jobs globally in 2014. NorthAmerica and EMEA, led Impact(bn) (000)
US $13.8 135
Canada $1.1 15
Germany $1.4 16
France $1.6 16
Spain $1.2 14
Italy $2.1 24
Brazil $1.3 25
Japan $1.1 9
Australia $1.0 11
11
Appendix
A1. Methodologyoverview 13
A3. Econometricanalysis 27
12
A1. Methodologyoverview
Connectivity effects: boosting the demand for The report estimates economic impact and jobs
technology through increased sales of devices and enabled as follows:
broadband connections.
It first estimates gross revenue supported by
Economic impact refers to the contribution Facebook Facebook, using different approaches and metrics
makes to economic output measured in terms of across effects (described in section A1).
value added and jobs.24Aproportion of the economic
activity supported by Facebook existed prior to its Next it estimates economic impact enabled:
emergence. Toattribute reasonable value to Facebook,
economic impact and jobs figures presented in the As the sum of direct, supply chain and employee
study exclude activity estimated to have been displaced spending effects. Thesupply chain and employee
or cannibalised. Inthis way the study estimates spending impact is estimated by multiplying gross
the extent to which Facebook has contributed to revenue by two factors, an output multiplier, to
economic activity rather than simply displacing existing reflect how the initial spending ripples through
economicactivity. the economy, and avalue added ratio to convert
output to economic impact (described in section
Examples include: A2).
13
Value added ratio
14
Targeted advertising Economic impact from Marketing Effect
Businesses direct sales from paid advertising on
Facebook are estimated from the amount of advertising Estimation of new activity
spend by businesses on the platform and estimated A proportion of the economic activity supported by
countrylevel average Return on Investment of total advertising and engagement on Facebook existed
advertising (ROI). prior to Facebook. Aproportion of digital marketing,
and thus advertising on digital platforms such as
ROIs are estimated for selected countries as the ratio Facebook, represents ashift away from traditional
of the estimated enabled sales due to advertising channels such as TV, radio, newspapers, etc. Inorder
on Facebook and the average advertising spend to attribute reasonable value to Facebook, the study
onFacebook:27 estimates the economic impact and jobs enabled by
advertising, pages and referrals by excluding activity
The sales due to Facebook advertising are the
displaced from offline media.
product of the number of businesses that advertise
on Facebook, an estimate of their average revenues Facebook may enable economic activity and associated
and the elasticities of sales to Facebook advertising jobs by opening up new opportunities for businesses
(seesection A3for how elasticities are estimated to engage with customers by complementing
byeconometric methods).28 traditional advertising or by allowing businesses to
advertise more due to Facebook advertisings lower
The average Facebook advertising spend of businesses upfront costs. Atthe same time, the return on some
is derived as the ratio of the sum of advertising funds of the advertising switched from traditional media to
spent by businesses and the corresponding number Facebook can be higher, and this can further drive new
ofbusinesses as set out above. economicactivity.
15
Businesses can use a range of platforms online to Estimation of ripple effects
advertise, including Google AdWords, Bing Ads, or Output multipliers and value added ratios are applied to
the Twitter Advertising platform, that exist alongside estimated gross revenues to calculate supply chain and
Facebook. While assessing precisely what businesses employee spending effects.
would have done in the absence of Facebook in
2014 is difficult and not estimated in this study, the
platform has features that suggest that the platform Summary of parameters, inputs and assumptions
Referrals Factor to account The factor of one third is applied to capture new marketing
for new activity activity on Facebook and exclude activity estimated to be
Like Pages, referrals represent alowbarrier marketing displaced from other media.
option for many businesses, increasing the opportunities
for their content to be found. Businessesmay
use referrals as one of the marketing tools before
embarking into paid advertising. Facebooks large and
engaged audience, special sharing options (for example
the option to include thumbnails of websites), and
other features motivate additional sharing. Thisreport
assumes the same degree of displacement from
referrals as from Pages and applies an adjustment
factor to referrals of approximately one third to capture
new activity. Thisassumption may be conservative
because referrals, like Pages, are alower cost marketing
resource and benefit from Facebooks scale.
16
Platform effects Monetised Apps
Revenue generated by canvas apps that use the
App Economy Facebook payment processing system for inapp
The Facebook platform allows developers to build purchases is determined using Facebook data on total
plugins, apps, and games that people can use both revenue from inapp purchases, excluding Facebooks
within Facebook as well as on mobile devices and the 30% commission payment. Revenuesgenerated
rest of the web. Thevalue of the app economy enabled outside of the Facebook payment processing system,
by Facebook is estimated by considering three types for instance through inapp purchases processed by
products provided by the platform: the Apple AppStore or Google Play, inapp advertising
or payments for the sale of the app, are estimated
Apps that are integrated with Facebook but do using the Facebook revenues and approximated
not use Facebook app install advertising or inapp outofFacebook revenue multiplier as below:
purchases (nonmonetised apps);
17
Gross revenues
# Actions on social plugin Value of an action ($) % Business actions
($)
Economic impact from app economy The ratio of new activity for revenues earned outside
of Facebook for multiplatform games is assumed to be
Estimation of new activity 50% to reflect that these games also operate and affect
In order to capture new value enabled by Facebook activity in other channels. Thelower percentage of
in the app ecosystem, the following assumptions new economic activity enabled by Facebook for these
areapplied. apps is based on the wider set of Facebook competitors
that these apps can use for infrastructure (eg, Amazon
Games within Facebook have helped to create anew AWS, Microsoft Azure), payment processing (eg,native
genre of gaming where people can play with friends, processors, Square), or promotion and delivery
compete against them, and share their achievements (eg,Google Play, Apple App Store).
within asingle platform. Whilethis development has
primarily enlarged the overall market, aportion of For apps that do not run on the canvas platform and
the existing gaming market targeted at asimilar core do not use inapp purchases, the share of new activity
customer group, for example companies developing is assumed to be 50% for the same reasons as for the
Java games for mobile phones, Flash online games, revenues earned by multiplatform games outside of
or certain single and multiplayer simulation games, Facebook, as described above.
has been displaced by the emergence of Facebook.
Itis assumed that 80% of the estimated revenues of Estimation of ripple effects
canvas games that use inapp purchases represent new Output multipliers and value added ratios are applied to
activity. Thisreflects Facebooks strong proposition in estimated gross revenues to calculate the supply chain
the market for inbrowser gaming. and employee spending effects.
Apps
App developer inapp Facebook charges 30% commission on providing the payments processing functionality,
revenue cut with the developer retaining the rest.34
OutofFacebook revenue A multiplier has been estimated based on interviews with Facebook subject matter
multiplier (Canvas apps) experts, and data from App Annie provided by Facebook for reference.
App install ads ROI A conservative ROI was used to determine the return on app install ads. Depending on
the app, the return can be generated through sale of the app, in-app purchases, or
in-app advertising.
Viability threshold Apps with fewer than 1,000monthly active users have been excluded from the analysis
of nonmonetised apps under the assumption of financial unviability of such apps.
Theassumption has been informed through interviews with Facebook subject matter experts.
Social PlugIn
Value of plugin actions The values of all plugin actions are considered equal and assumed to have an approximate
value of 1% of the value of liking actions on Pages to reflect the shortterm lifespan of
these actions.
18
Summary of parameters, inputs and assumptions (continued)
Common
Support Staff Ratio Support staff is defined as any staff that does not directly work on the implementation of
Facebook functionality. Examplesof such staff may include designers, project managers,
marketers etc.
The ratio is based on astudy by the University of Maryland,35where it was estimated to be
2.2staff for every developer working on aFacebook app.
For nonmonetised apps, the ratio is assumed to be 50% lower to reflect that the business
models of these apps may be less reliant on Facebook than canvas apps.
Factors to account for Assumptions for accounting for new activity have been verified with Facebook subject
newactivity matter experts and are as follows:
Revenue of canvas apps earned within Facebook: 80%
Revenue of canvas apps earned outside Facebook: 50%
Apps promoted with app install ads: 50%
Nonmonetised apps: 50%
Social Plugins: one third
19
Economic impact from events Summary of parameters, inputs and assumptions
20
Given the popularity of Facebook, it is assumed that The study captures the retail value stimulated by
aproportion of the demand for new devices using Facebook from device sales, as manufacturing of
Facebook is driven by the desire to use Facebook. devices only happens in specific locations. Toisolate
Inorder to apportion value from devices to Facebook, this retail value, an approximation of aretail margin,
an assumption is accordingly applied based on the consisting of, for example, operational expenses, taxes,
results of asurvey by Ofcom which illustrates the or profits, is applied to the estimates.
relative importance of different smartphone services
such as making phone calls, social networking and
internet browsing, to smartphone owners of different
ages.43On this basis, it is assumed that 16% of the
value from unique devices purchased in the given year
which are used to access Facebook may be attributable
toFacebook.
Sharing of devices One device may be used by anumber of people to access Facebook. Similarly,one person
may access Facebook from multiple of his devices, which can fall into the same category
or span multiple categories. Theassumption allows estimation of unique devices from the
data on monthly average users.
It is assumed that on average 1.2people share asmartphone, 2people atablet,
and1.1people afeature phone.
Replacement rates A replacement rate of two years means that on average every other year people buy anew
device and hence in every year, half of all devices are newly purchases.
The average replacement rate for smart and feature phones is 2years, for tablets 2.5years.
Share of device value It is assumed that 16% of the value from unique devices purchased in the given year which
attributable to Facebook are used to access Facebook may be attributable to Facebook.43
Average Selling Prices (ASP) Prices are researched for each operating system in selected key markets in every region.
Pricesfor lowend and highend devices are considered.
Weighted average selling prices are calculated using the weighted average of prices under
the assumption of 80% market share of the lowend devices and 20% market share of the
highend devices.
Retail margin Only aproportion of the value added by devices sales can be attributed to the country
where the device has been sold. Aretail margin of approximately 40% is applied which
consists of operational costs, taxes and profits.
21
Broadband Fixed broadband
Facebook stimulates the demand for broadband. The number of connections that use fixed broadband
Thestudy estimates the impact of Facebook on connectivity is estimated using Facebooks countrylevel
broadband sales. data on the numbers of monthly active users on mobile
devices and computers, and connection data for
Mobile broadband mobile devices. Devicesused to access Facebook using
The value of broadband sales attributable to fixed broadband connections include desktop and
Facebook is based on the data consumed by laptopPCs.
different devices when accessing Facebook using the
number of connections (sessions) made to Facebook The computation of gross revenues is analogous to the
and the estimated costs per megabyte for the methodology for mobile broadband in the previous
bandwidthconsumed. section. Theprices used in the calculation are based on
acombination of OECD49data and operators websites.
Data consumption per session is estimated using
Facebook data on bandwidth consumption for
Android devices. Estimatedconsumption for other Average
platforms is derived using estimates of monthly data bandwidth Fixed
# Annual fixed Gross revenues
consumption on different mobile devices by Cisco per fixed broadband
FB connections from fixed ($)
connection prices ($)
under the assumption that the share of Facebook data (MB)
usage in total is constant across platforms and equal to
consumption on Android devices.45Adjustment is made
for connections related to messaging to reflect their
lower data intensity.
Average
# Annual bandwidth Mobile
Gross revenues
mobile FB per mobile broadband
from mobile ($)
connections connection prices ($)
(MB)
22
Economic impact from broadband Delta Partners Group estimate the approximate
reduction of operators SMS revenue due to instant
Estimation of new activity messaging.50Taking account of Facebooks market
Facebook users consume broadband across the share of instant messaging, the economic impact of
range of activities they perform on the platform, Facebook by driving connectivity is calculated excluding
from accessing their Newsfeed, to checking friends valuedisplaced.
updates, to uploading photos or videos, sending
messages or using apps, to name afew. Whilethese Estimation of ripple effects
activities have stimulated broadband investment, Output multipliers and value added ratios are applied to
services such as messaging have may have reduced estimated gross revenues to calculate the supply chain
usage of other telecommunication services. Inorder and employee spending effects.
to capture the new economic activity enabled by
Facebook in telecommunications ecosystems, the
economic impact of Facebook is estimated net of such
displacementeffects.
Mobile broadband prices Mobile broadband prices are based on data from Ofcom for EU 5(UK, Germany, France,
perregion Italy, and Spain) or are researched on local operators websites for other countries and
regions. Theestimated impact uses the macroregional average prices.51
Prices are aweighted average of per MB prices from Ofcom or local operators. Threedata
plans are considered: 1GB, 3GB and 5GB (or equivalents). Anassumption is made that
60% of people choose the smallest plan, 30% choose the middle, and 10% choose the
largestone.
In countries labelled as developing, separate prices for prepaid and postpaid are applied.
Switching factor A switching factor is applied to mobile connections to account for multicounting of
sessions on mobile devices. Themulticounting results from devices automatically
switching between wifi and 3G connections, changing mobile towers while the Facebook
app is in use.
Fixed broadband prices Fixed broadband prices are derived from OECD data52and calculated based on three data
perregion plans (2GB, 0.25MB/s and above, 42GB, 0.25MB/s and above, 42GB, 30MB/s and above).
Regionalprices are used.
The average price is weighted assuming that 60% of people chose the lowest data plan,
30% the medium, and 10% the most expensive one.
All prices are adjusted by PPP indexes at country level.53
Average fixed data Estimated using Facebook data and outputs of aCisco connectivity study.54
consumption per session
23
Summary of parameters, inputs and assumptions (continued)
Estimate of new economic To estimate new economic activity, displacement of messaging value is taken into account.
activity
Summary of inputs
Facebooks cost and The costs and expenses are determined from Facebooks SEC filing for Q32014 (9months
expenses, and provisions year to date) and Q42013.55All costs and expenses (Cost of Revenue, Research &
forincome taxes Development, Sales & Marketing, General & Administrative), and provision for income
taxes, are included. Togetherthese items amount to $8.4bn.
24
A2. Multipliers,value added ratios
and productivities
This section describes the output multipliers, value
Name Output multiplier
added ratios, and labour productivities used to estimate
economic impact and jobs from gross revenue in each Australia 2.6
The supply chain and employee spending impact is United Kingdom 2.1
estimated by multiplying the direct impact by afactor United States of America 2.7
(multiplier) to reflect how the initial activity ripples
EU28 2.5
through the economy. Themain determinants of the
size of the supply chain and employee spending impact
Source: various sources56
are the:
25
Value added ratios Labour productivities
The value added ratio represents the proportion Productivities for labour are calculated from the
of value added in output and is used to convert USBureau of Economic Analysis, Eurostat and
the output to economic impact. Henceit is the Conference Boards productivity data.58Where not
ratio between the total value of production net of available, labour productivities are estimated by
intermediate inputs and total value of production. dividing the national GDP by total number of people
employed. Thistranslates into the production value of
an average worker in acountry.
Name Value added ratios
Australia 0.5
Name General labour productivity ($)
Brazil 0.6
Australia 92,600
Canada 0.6
Brazil 44,200
France 0.5
Canada 66,400
Germany 0.5
France 92,500
India 0.6
Germany 84,100
Italy 0.5
India 10,700
Japan 0.5
Italy 82,800
Spain 0.4
Japan 100,600
United Kingdom 0.5
Spain 79,100
United States of America 0.5
United Kingdom 74,200
EU28 0.5
United States of America 95,000
26
A3. Econometricanalysis
Econometric modelling is used to identify the where jt denotes baseline sales, hjt includes atime
relationship between Facebook advertising, trend and controls for country GDP and deflator (retail
Pageengagement, and business sales. price index exchange rate), and vjt is an errorterm
that contains all other contemporaneous unobserved
The econometric model estimates the impact of factors. Baselinesales are allowed to vary over time
traditional and Facebook advertising on annual according to the following specification:
company sales revenue. Theeffectiveness of Facebook
Pages is also considered by measuring the number of jt = j + i jt1+ j1In(1+ Adjt )
(2)
people who liked the Page. + j2ln(1+ Likesjt ) + j3(1+FBjt ) + wjt
The study follows the recent academic literature in Adjt is traditional advertising spend, Likesjt are the
marketing effectiveness and specifies ahierarchical number of people who liked the Page and FBjt is
Dynamic Linear Model (DLM) that is estimated using advertising spend on Facebook. The js measure
Bayesian methods.60This approach provides aflexible the effect of the marketingmix variables on baseline
mechanism to determine how advertising and sales and are the central parameters of interest in this
pagerelated activity impacts sales over time. Themodel analysis. Theremaining terms j and i denote the
comprises four observational equations for revenue, constant and the decayrate of the marketing effects
advertising (digital & traditional) and page data and respectively. Avalue of i close to zero implies that the
four latent or statevariable equations for changes in effect of marketing occurs in one year, whereas avalue
baselinevalues. Thisapproach conforms to astructural closer to one, implies that the effect of the strategy is
timeseries framework and provides ameans to longer lasting. Finallythe error term wjt is included to
separate both shortrun from longruninfluences. allow for unobserved marketing that will also influence
baseline sales.
The econometric model has several advantages.
Firstof all, it deals with the potential endogeneity Elasticities, Uplifts and Return On Investment
of advertising.61It includes firm level timeinvariant Advertising
effects, economy wide controls and also uses the The terms in equation (2) denote the shortrun
lagged advertising and page engagement values as effects. Forthe longrun or cumulative impact of
instruments to provide consistent estimates in the marketing activity, it is necessary to involve the
presence of contemporaneous endogeneity. Itfurther decayparameter. Inparticular it can be shown that
accommodates heterogeneity across companies and a1% rise in FBjt leads to atotal percentage rise in
markets, dynamic advertising effects, unobserved salesof:
goodwill, and multivariate dependent variables.
j3 FBj FBj
The advertising elasticities together with revenue = j1 (3)
+
( 1i) (1 FBj) (1+ FBj)
uplifts, marginal and average effects are computed
from the parameters of sales equations.62As such, Another quantity of interest concerns the uplift in
asufficient understanding of the computations revenue that has been brought about by the total
contained in this report can be achieved through spend. Againfocusing on the steadystate this difference
an examination of these equations in isolation. is simply sj(Fb) sj(Fb = 0). Expressedas apercentage
Theremainder serve to address the issues of current revenue, the formula is given by:
aforementioned and will not be described in this
Appendix (see references for further details of sj (1+ FBj) j1 1
PE = = (4)
multivariate DLMs). sj (1+ FBj) j1
Let In sjt denote the logarithm of sales of company jin An identical process follows for the remaining variables
year t, and hjt aset of controls that influence sales in Ad and Likes.
the same period. Themodel describing ln sjt is given by:
27
Estimation Then using Bayesian methods, the full model in (1),
The dataset used in this analysis contains observations (2) and (5) is estimated simultaneously (in addition
for over 2000 SMBs and nonSMB companies to the equations for the marketing mix variables).
observed annually between 20082012 in asample Thishierarchical process is often referred to as partial
of countries. Toestimate the parameters of the sales pooling as the resulting estimate of marketing
equations (andthe remainder) it is necessary to specify effectiveness will be aweighted average of zj and an
aprocess for the coefficients. Atone extreme it could estimate that also considers the sales data for company
be assumed that the parameters are identical across jin isolation. Henceif no observations are available for
companies. Inthis case j = and the data could be aparticular company, then equation (3) provides the
`pooled across organizations. Thiswould have the `bestguess or a`prior view in Bayesian terminology.
effect of increasing the efficiency of estimates but Foramodest number of observations, the estimate of
at the expense of asingle effect representing the j is aweighted average, whereas for alarge number
populationaverage. Atthe other extreme, we could (e.g.100periods per company) the estimate of j will
assume no commonality and estimate the model for not involve (3). Assuch this process accommodates
each jin isolation. Althoughimmaterial when the time both heterogeneity in the effectiveness of marketing
periods are large, the dataset in this analysis contains and other activities across companies, while exploiting
amaximum of just 5years per company. Assuch the benefits of acommon structure to maximize the
estimation without some form of pooling would be efficiency of the estimator.
impossible.
Estimated elasticities are generated for every business
The approach adopted by Deloitte specifies astructure in the sample. Fromthose, the average elasticities for
between the parameters (i.e. marketing and other SMBs and nonSMBs are calculated as well.
effects) across companies and is referred to as
ahierarchical model. Thisexplains the variation in the
effects due to company, e.g. SMB vs. nonSMB, and
sector specific factors contained in zj. Toillustrate this
process, consider amodel for the s which is expressed
as follows:
j = zj + uj (5)
28
Endnotes
1 Mark Zuckerberg Biography (2014), Facebook, https:// 18 Quarterly report pursuant to section13 or 15(d) of the
www.facebook.com/zuck/about?section=bio Securities Exchange Act of 1934 (2014), Facebook Inves-
2 Facebook newsroom Our mission (2014), Facebook, tor Relations, http://investor.fb.com/secfiling.cfm?
http://newsroom.fb.com/companyinfo/ filingID=13268011468
3 Investor relations (2014), Facebook, http://investor. 19 Quarterly report pursuant to section13 or 15(d) of the
fb.com/releasedetail.cfm?ReleaseID=878726 Securities Exchange Act of 1934 (2014), Facebook
Investor Relations, http://investor.fb.com/secfiling.
4 Facebook Q214Earnings Call Transcript July 23, 2014 cfm?filingID=13268011468
(2014), Facebook, http://files.shareholder.com/downloads/
AMDANJ5DZ/3203397419x0x771026/6a17fe2b316c432 20 Top Apps (2014), Google Play, https://play.google.com/
a8c76008a52fa744d/FB%20Q214%20Earnings%20Con- store/apps/top?hl=en_US, https://www.apple.com/uk/
ference%20Call%20transcript.pdf itunes/charts/freeapps/
5 Facebook: We Have 25Million Active Small Business 21 The impact of Broadband on the Economy (2012), ITU,
Pages (2014), Marketing Land, http://marketingland.com/ http://www.itu.int/ITUD/treg/broadband/ITUBBRe-
facebookwehave25millionactivesmallbusinesspag- ports_ImpactofBroadbandontheEconomy.pdf.
es65629Facebook reaches 1million active 22 Value of Connectivity, the economic and social benefits
advertisers (2013), http://www.reuters.com/arti- of expanding internet access, (2014), Deloitte. Thestudy
cle/2013/06/18/netusfacebookadvertisingidUSBRE- finds that by expanding internet access in developing
95H19J20130618 countries to levels seen today in developed economies
6 In this report, value added is referred to as economic productivity could be raised by as much as 25percent,
impact. Valueadded itself represents the value added by generating $2.2trillion in GDP; the life expectancy of 2.5m
an activity at each stage of production and is analogous people affected by HIV/AIDS could be extended through
to GDP contribution. HoweverGDP only captures narrow access to health information available online; and 640m
effects, while this studys measure of economic impact children may be able to access the wealth of information
captures broad effects enabled by Facebook in the eco- the internet makes available while they study.
system (marketing, platform and connectivity effects) and 23 Deloitte analysis of Facebook data
excludes estimated displacement 24 Value added is referred to as economic impact. Val-
7 Classification of countries into macro regions uses World ueadded itself represents the value added by an activity at
Bank mapping scheme. Thestudy makes two excep- each stage of production and is analogous to GDP contri-
tions to the World Bank classification: North America is bution. HoweverGDP only captures narrow effects, while
composed of the United States and Canada. Centraland this studys measure of economic impact captures broad
South America includes Mexico to align classification with effects enabled by Facebook in the ecosystem (marketing,
Facebooks methodology platform and connectivity effects) and excludes estimated
8 Facebook Quarterly Earnings Slides Q32014 (2014), displacement
Facebook, http://files.shareholder.com/downloads/AMDA 25 Value added ratios are applied also in order to convert
NJ5DZ/3648394864x0x789303/06decc7b05884a52a8d output into value added or economicimpact
d3a591ab02395/FBQ314Earnings 26 Marketers Seek New Strategies as Facebook Changes
Slides20141027.pdf Read; http://www.emarketer.com/Article/Market-
9 An Update to News Feed: What it Means for Businesses ersSeekNewStrategiesFacebookChanges/1009296.
(2014), Facebook https://www.facebook.com/business/ Findingsare based on ametaanalysis of thirdparty
news/updatetofacebooknewsfeed research to determine the role of Facebook as amarketing
10 The Ice Bucket Challenge on Facebook (2014), Facebook platform for companies with more than 100employees
newsroom, http://newsroom.fb.com/news/2014/08/ 27 Econometric analysis is carried out for Brazil, South Africa,
theicebucketchallengeonfacebook/ UAE, the United Kingdom, and the United States
11 The ALS Ice Bucket Challenge has Raised $100Million 28The report uses survey evidence (Key Findings From US
And Counting (2014), Forbes, http://www.forbes.com/ Digital Marketing Spending Survey (2013), Gartner, http://
sites/dandiamond/2014/08/29/thealsicebucketchalleng www.gartner.com/technology/research/digitalmarketing/
ehasraised100mbutitsfinallycoolingoff/ digitalmarketingspendreport.jsp) and the econometric
12 Countries reported individually throughout this study have sample to estimate the average revenues of businesses.
been selected by Facebook. Thesurvey was carried out on asample of 253USbased
companies with average revenues of $5bn to assess corpo-
13 Facebook Platform Launches (2007), Facebook Develop- rate spending on marketing with aspecial focus on digital
ers Blog, https://developers.facebook.com/blog/post/21/. marketing, including social media as ashare of company
14 Helping Developers Build, Grow, and Monetise, Fa- revenues
cebook (2014), https://developers.facebook.com/blog/ 29 Referrals to websites which individually received an imma-
post/2014/04/30/f8/ terial number of referrals from Facebook relative to more
15 Google Play USA, Apple App Store USA as of November 26. popular ones were not categorised into one of the types of
16 The amazing scale of the European App Economy websites. Thosereferrals are attributed the lowest possible
(2014), European Commission, http://ec.europa.eu/com- value of all three types of website
mission_20102014/kroes/en/content/thesepeoplestud- 30 The Effect of the Internet on Advertising Expenditures.
iedeuropesappeconomywhattheyfoundoutwillleave Anempirical analysis Using aPanel of Countries (2010),
youtotallyamazed. Zentner, A., University of Texas, http://papers.ssrn.com/
17 Facebook Q214Earnings Call Transcript, (2014), Face- sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=1792789
book, http://investor.fb.com/results.cfm
29
31 Marketing literature, e.g. Elliott,Stuart (2010), For Super 45 Cisco Visual Networking Index: Global Mobile Data Traffic
Bowl XLIV Advertising, Synergy Is the Name of the Game Forecast Update, 20132018 (2014), Cisco, http://www.
New York Times, Jan21, Frensley, Amber (2007), Creating cisco.com/c/en/us/solutions/collateral/serviceprovider/
Synergy With Online and Offline Marketing, Ecommerce visualnetworkingindexvni/white_paper_c11520862.
Times October 26, suggests that online and traditional html
advertising can have important synergies and thus they 46 European Scorecard report (2014), Ofcom, http://
can beneficially coexist stakeholders.ofcom.org.uk/marketdataresearch/other/
32 The Facebook App Economy (2011), University of Mary- telecomsresearch/bbresearch/scorecard14
land, http://www.rhsmith.umd.edu/files/Documents/ 47 Smartphone Users Worldwide Will Total 1.75Billion in
Centers/DIGITSAppEconomyImpact091911.pdf 2014 (2014), eMarketer, http://www.emarketer.com/
33 Deloitte analysis of Facebook data based on the categories Article/SmartphoneUsersWorldwideWillTotal175Bil-
of Pages lion2014/1010536
34 Payment Terms (2012), Facebook Developers Portal, 48 Examples include adedicated Facebook plan with Airtel,
https://developers.facebook.com/policy/payments_terms an India operator, https://www.facebook.com/notes/
35The Facebook App Economy (2011), University of Mary- airtel_in/airtellaunchestheworldsfirstussdbasedface-
land, http://www.rhsmith.umd.edu/files/Documents/Cent- bookaccessserviceinindiafac/222601604418531
ers/DIGITS/AppEconomyImpact091911.pdf 49 OECD Broadband Portal (2014), OECD, http://www.oecd.
36 Events attendees include both attendees who accept org/sti/broadband/oecdbroadbandportal.htm
invitations to an event and attendees who say they will 50 The topline impact of OTTs (2013), Delta Partners,
maybe attend http://www.deltapartnersgroup.com/ourinsights/under-
37 Leisure Wallet Report (2013), Zolfo Cooper, http://www. standingdataeconomics
europe.zolfocooper.com/sites/default/files/Leisure%20 51 European Scorecard report (2014), Ofcom, http://
Wallet%20Report%202013_0.pdf stakeholders.ofcom.org.uk/marketdataresearch/other/
38 Cost of Living (2014), Numbeo, http://www.numbeo. telecomsresearch/bbresearch/scorecard14
com/costofliving/; The average spend per visit is based on 52 OECD Communications Outlook (2013), OECD, http://
the average cost of two drinks and an inexpensive meal. www.oecdilibrary.org/scienceandtechnology/oecdcom-
Priceswere compiled on 12th of November 2014 municationsoutlook2013_comms_outlook2013en
39 Based on World Bank Data (2012), http://data.worldbank. 53 Based on World Bank Data (2012), http://data.worldbank.
org/indicator/NY.GDP.PCAP.CD org/indicator/NY.GDP.PCAP.CD
40 Leisure Wallet Report (2013), Zolfo Cooper, http://www. 54 Cisco Visual Networking Index: Global Mobile Data Traffic
europe.zolfocooper.com/sites/default/files/Leisure%20 Forecast Update, 20132018 (2014), Cisco, http://www.
Wallet%20Report%202013_0.pdf cisco.com/c/en/us/solutions/collateral/serviceprovider/
41 Mobile Consumer 2014: The UK cut (2014), Deloitte, visualnetworkingindexvni/white_paper_c11520862.
http://www.deloitte.co.uk/mobileuk/and Why the life- html
cycle of atablet is getting to be surprisingly long (2013), 55 Facebook Reports Third Quarter 2014 Results (2014),
TabTimes, http://tabtimes.com/analysis/deploymentstrate- Facebook Investor Relations, http://investor.fb.com/relea-
gy/2013/12/22/whylifecycletabletgettingbesurprising- sedetail.cfm?ReleaseID=878726
lylong 56 RIMS II Online Order and Delivery System (2014), The
42 Smartphone Users Worldwide Will Total 1.75Billion in Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), https://www.bea.gov/
2014 (2014), eMarketer, http://www.emarketer.com/ regional/rims/rimsii/
Article/SmartphoneUsersWorldwideWillTotal175Bil- The World InputOutput Database (WIOD): Contents,
lion2014/1010536 Sources and Methods (2012), Marcel P. Timmer. Argen-
43 Communications Market Report (2011), Ofcom, http:// tina,Chile: STAN IO OECD StatExtracts. http://www.
stakeholders.ofcom.org.uk/binaries/research/cmr/cmr11/ oecdilibrary.org/statistics,
smartphonetablesteens.pdf; http://stakeholders.ofcom. Eurostat Supply, Use and InputOutput tables, http://epp.
org.uk/binaries/research/cmr/cmr11/smartphoneta- eurostat.ec.europa.eu/portal/page/portal/esa95_sup-
blesadults.pdf. Theresults are based on 707responses by ply_use_input_tables/introduction,
smartphone owners to amultiplechoice question What
activities wouldnt want to live without who responded DirectorGeneral for Policy Planning (Statistical Standards),
with Social networking. Morethan 44% of teens Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications (http://
selected social networking, compared to 14% of adults. www.stat.go.jp/english/)
Toreflect that Facebook is not the only social network Planning Commission of India (http://planningcommission.
available on smartphones, an adjustment is applied reflect- nic.in/), Statistics Canada (STATCAN)( http://www.statcan.
ing the share of time spent on social networks that is spent gc.ca/startdebuteng.html),
on Facebook. The16% assumption potentially understates Africa, Rest of Europe, Middle East: GTAP Data Bases
the importance of Facebook, given the popularity of the (https://www.gtap.agecon.purdue.edu/databases/v8/)
Facebook app and its usage as ashare of activity on smart-
phones (http://investor.fb.com/)
44 Communications Market Report (2011), Ofcom, http://
stakeholders.ofcom.org.uk/binaries/research/cmr/cmr11/
smartphonetablesteens.pdf; http://stakeholders.ofcom.
org.uk/binaries/research/cmr/cmr11/smartphoneta-
blesadults.pdf
30
57 Argentina, Chile: STAN IO OECD StatExtracts. http://www. 59 Software sector productivity used in section3 is based
oecdilibrary.org/statistics, on Eurostat data. WhereEurostat data is not available, an
Eurostat Supply, Use and InputOutput tables http://epp. adjustment is made to general productivities to reflect the
eurostat.ec.europa.eu/portal/page/portal/esa95_supply_use_ higher productivity of the software sector. Theadjustment is
input_tables/introduction, informed through the comparison of general and software
productivities in Eurostat
Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia eEstatstica (IBGE) (http://
www.ibge.gov.br/english/), 60 See Dinner et al (2011) for arecent application and West &
Harrison (1999) for further details of DLMs
Planning Commission of India (http://planning
commission.nic.in/), 61 This refers to the case where common unobserved factors
impact both sales and advertising in the same period.
Australian Bureau of Statistics (AUSSTATS) (http://www.abs. Ifthis is ignored then the estimated impact of advertising
gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/web+pages/statistics), will be biased
Statistics Canada (STATCAN)( http://www.statcan.gc.ca/ 62 The data is also used but these parameters represent the
startdebuteng.html), econometric inputs
Africa, Rest of Europe, Middle East: GTAP Data Bases (https://
www.gtap.agecon.purdue.edu/databases/v8/).
58 Total Economy Database (2014), The Conference Board,
https://www.conferenceboard.org/data/economydatabase/,
The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), https://www.bea.
gov/regional/rims/rimsii/, Ministry of Internal Affairs and
Communications (http://www.soumu.go.jp/english/),
Planning Commission of India (http://planning
commission.nic.in/),Australian Bureau of Statistics (AUS-
STATS) (http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/
web+pages/statistics), Statistics Canada (STATCAN) (http://
www.statcan.gc.ca/startdebuteng.html).
31
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