GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, VOL. 29, NO. 18, 1892, doi:10.

1029/2001GL014378, 2002

Correction published 2 April 2003

A statistical estimate of daily mean temperature

derived from a limited number of daily observations
Masumi Zaiki, Keiji Kimura, and Takehiko Mikami
Department of Geography, Graduate school of Science, Tokyo Metropolitan University, Japan
Received 13 November 2001; revised 20 March 2002; accepted 22 April 2002; published 28 September 2002.
[1] When a study is made of past climatic variations, it is to this as one of the important causes of data inhomogeniety.
preferable to obtain as long an instrumental record as Table 1 shows that differences in daily mean temperatures
possible. In Japan, the earliest official meteorological calculated from the max and min (2 times), 3 and 4
observations by JMA (Japan Meteorological Agency) date observational values.
back to Hakodate in 1872. For about 130 years, the frequency [4] Thus a problem exists in the variable methods used to
and time of daily observation has varied. This is one of the calculate mean temperature values. This leads to the further
major factors in creating data inhomogeneity. Accordingly, problem of how accurate climate change and variability
statistical estimation has been attempted to bridge the gap in discussions have been, based on these inconsistent averages.
daily mean temperatures caused by the limited number of Many discussions on data homogenization have been car-
daily observations. A Multiple Linear Regression Analysis ried out [e.g., Bradley and Jones, 1985; Parker, 1994;
was practically applied in the estimation of the daily mean Alexandersson and Moberg, 1997], and a great deal of
temperature. The true value obtained from 24 hourly effort has been applied towards the homogenization of the
observational values (real daily mean temperature) was monthly mean values [e.g., Hansen and Lebedeff, 1987;
compared to a derived result using only three to four plus Jones, 1994; Peterson et al., 1998]. However, very few
maximum and minimum daily observed temperatures. A attempts have been made in the homogenization of daily
high correlation between real values and estimated values mean temperature, such as estimation by diurnal model
was proven to exist. INDEX TERMS: 3309 Meteorology and [Parton and Logan, 1981; Van Engelen and Geurts, 1983].
Atmospheric Dynamics: Climatology (1620); 9320 Information In order to improve the accuracy for monthly mean temper-
Related to Geographic Region: Asia; 3344 Meteorology and atures, it would be an effective step to estimate accurate
Atmospheric Dynamics: Paleoclimatology. Citation: Zaiki M., daily mean temperatures. Estimating accurate daily mean
K. Kimura, and T. Mikami, A statistical estimate of daily mean temperatures would also provide us with information about
temperature derived from a limited number of daily observations, climatic events on a daily basis.
Geophys. Res. Lett., 29(18), 1892, doi:10.1029/2001GL014378, [5] Furthermore, in other reports of our research [Zaiki et
2002. al., 2000; Konnen et al., 2001], early 19th century instru-
mental meteorological data taken in Nagasaki is presented.
This data has extended the JMA data by about 30 years. In
1. Introduction the case of connecting this data to the JMA data, similar
[2] In 1872, the first official meteorological observations problems as mentioned above arise.
began in Hakodate, Japan, under the direction of the Japan [6] Toward the solution for these problems, such as data
Meteorological Agency (JMA). Throughout the 130 year restriction of daily observation, this study attempts to esti-
history of meteorological observations in Japan, the fre- mate the daily mean temperature with as close correlation to
quency and time of daily observation has varied Most the real mean value derived from the hourly observational
observations include a maximum (max) and minimum data, using only 4, 3 or 2 daily observational data points, by
(min) value, 3 or 4 observations per a day. Several standard
times were also adopted when Japan Standard Time (JST) Table 1. Standard Deviation of Difference the Between the 24
was enacted in 1889. Daily mean maximum temperatures Hourly and Each Observation Schedule Daily Mean Temperature
were derived from a 24-hour period (22:00 22:00 JST) at (C)
many meteorological stations until 1939, in the same way,
daily minimum temperature were based on observations 2 times 3 times 4 times
from r 09:00 09:00 JST from 1953 to 1963 [Fujibe, 1999]. JAN. 0.480 0.590 0.278
FEB. 0.456 0.583 0.264
For these reasons, until now, mean values have been MAR. 0.497 0.487 0.258
calculated differently and at different times. APR. 0.510 0.448 0.245
[3] The daily mean values in recent years have been MAY. 0.435 0.385 0.223
calculated from the sum of each 24 hourly observation JUNE 0.361 0.359 0.203
values divided by 24. With respect to the method of JULY 0.306 0.298 0.177
AUG. 0.354 0.296 0.182
calculating mean values, Bradley et al. [1985] pointed out SEPT. 0.369 0.324 0.179
that changes in observation time and changes in the method OCT. 0.402 0.381 0.193
of calculating monthly mean temperatures are a major NOV. 0.475 0.463 0.227
potential source of error. Jones et al. [1999] also refered DEC. 0.545 0.557 0.276
2 times: Max and Min temperatures.
Copyright 2002 by the American Geophysical Union. 3 times: 06:00, 09:00, 15:30 NLT.
0094-8276/02/2001GL014378 4 times: 06:00, 09:00, 15:30, 22:00 NLT.

39 - 1
39 - 2 ZAIKI ET AL.: A STATISTICAL ESTIMATE OF DAILY MEAN TEMPERATURE

Table 2. Results of the Estimation by MLRA (4 times daily observations)

Constant Multiple Regression Coefficient (MRC) MCC Residual STD for
a0 a1 a2 a3 a4 Max Min Residuals
JAN. 0.084 0.295 0.159 0.322 0.211 0.9933 1.12 1.02 0.25
FEB. 0.068 0.268 0.201 0.303 0.221 0.9944 0.80 1.14 0.25
MAR. 0.180 0.282 0.193 0.300 0.212 0.9925 0.89 1.24 0.24
APR. 0.302 0.284 0.195 0.287 0.221 0.9932 1.29 0.86 0.22
MAY 0.436 0.277 0.211 0.264 0.230 0.9900 0.85 0.95 0.21
JUNE 0.559 0.286 0.190 0.267 0.236 0.9911 0.62 0.72 0.18
JULY 0.301 0.266 0.237 0.251 0.238 0.9930 0.98 0.68 0.17
AUG. 0.564 0.259 0.215 0.254 0.254 0.9869 0.75 0.58 0.18
SEPT. 0.342 0.259 0.218 0.264 0.248 0.9941 0.73 0.61 0.17
OCT. 0.214 0.267 0.217 0.275 0.233 0.9948 0.65 0.69 0.19
NOV. 0.049 0.282 0.197 0.294 0.225 0.9953 0.68 1.13 0.22
DEC. 0.100 0.301 0.165 0.316 0.210 0.9930 0.82 1.37 0.25
MCC: Multiple Correlation Coefficient.

applying Multiple Linear Regression Analysis. Kagan
[1997] has introduced a similar technique, optimal averag-
ing, through application of the least-squares method. This
method was applied to the NCEP/NCAR 40-year Reanalysis
project [Kalnay et al., 1996]. The method is aimed toward
calculating one spatial averaged value taking into account
the position of observational points, so that the value will
represent the features of the field which is being averaged.
Apart from that, our paper proposes that Multiple Liner
Regression Analysis could also be applied.
2. Data and Method
[7] In order to estimate the daily mean temperature from
the limited number of daily observational data, Multiple
Linear Regression Analysis (MLRA) was applied.
[8] In this study, the analysis is based on the hourly
temperature data at Nagasaki, as discussed in Zaiki et al.
[2000], which was recorded by the Automated Meteoro-
logical Data Acquisition System (AMeDAS) of JMA for
1978 1998, with only 3 missing data points. Here we use
Nagasaki Local Time (NLT), which was 20 minutes behind
that of JST [Zaiki et al., 2000].
[9] Hereafter daily mean temperatures will be defined
respectively as DT24, based on 24 hours daily observa-
tions; DT4, DT3 and DT2, calculated from 4, 3 or 2 times
daily observations respectively; and DTest, estimated by
the MLRA method. Similarly the monthly mean temper-
atures, which are calculated from those daily mean tem-
peratures are abbreviated as MT24, MT4, MT3, MT2, and
MTest.
[10] In order to estimate the daily mean temperature,
approximated to DT24, using only four temperature values
at 06:00, 09:00, 15:30, 22:00 NLT a day, the MLRA is
tested on the temperature of each month. The equation is
Y24 a0 a1 x1 a2 x2 a3 x3 a4 x4
where Y24 as the dependent variable is DT24 for a given day,
and x1, x2, x3, x4 are explanatory variables of temperatures at
06:00, 09:00, 15:30, 22:00 NLT on the same day
respectively.
[11] In the same way, the estimation using three temper-
ature values at 06:00, 09:00, 15:30 NLT was calculated in
using the following equation,
Y24 a0 a1 x1 a2 x2 a3 x3
[12] Daily max and min temperatures were applied to the
estimation by two observational values in one day as
follows;
Y24 a0 a1 x1 a2 x2
[13] By these calculations, a0 (Constant) and a1, a2, a3, a4
(Regression Coefficient) are calculated, and a1, a2, a3, a4 are
weights on Y24 in relation to DT24. Consequently DTest. can
be calculated by substituting a0, a1, a2, a3, a4 in these forms.
3. Results
[14] As a result of the MLRA calculated for the obser-
vations made 4 times daily, a0 as a Constant, a1, a2, a3, a4 as

Table 3. Results of the Estimation by MLRA (3 times daily observations)

Constant MRC MCC Residual STD for
a0 a1 a2 a3 Max Min Residuals
JAN. 0.071 0.288 0.219 0.448 0.9774 1.51 1.42 0.45
FEB. 0.183 0.267 0.268 0.438 0.9802 2.01 1.61 0.47
MAR. 0.071 0.305 0.251 0.418 0.9768 1.79 1.86 0.42
APR. 0.124 0.326 0.256 0.392 0.9767 1.50 1.51 0.42
MAY 0.402 0.345 0.257 0.363 0.9691 1.29 1.37 0.37
JUNE 0.598 0.384 0.213 0.372 0.9719 1.37 0.98 0.33
JULY 1.017 0.350 0.269 0.337 0.9828 1.12 1.00 0.29
AUG. 1.506 0.330 0.263 0.344 0.9686 1.05 1.05 0.27
SEPT. 0.240 0.334 0.280 0.365 0.9811 0.85 1.01 0.31
OCT. 0.282 0.333 0.274 0.388 0.9802 1.20 1.18 0.37
NOV. 0.231 0.319 0.268 0.400 0.9817 1.67 1.91 0.43
DEC. 0.013 0.276 0.264 0.418 0.9766 1.38 1.49 0.46
 ZAIKI ET AL.: A STATISTICAL ESTIMATE OF DAILY MEAN TEMPERATURE 39 - 3

Table 4. Results of the Estimation by MLRA (twice daily observations)

Constant MRC MCC Residual STD for
a0 a1 a2 Max Min Residuals
JAN. 0.099 0.490 0.503 0.9750 1.32 1.68 0.48
FEB. 0.032 0.507 0.486 0.9810 1.52 1.37 0.45
MAR. 0.136 0.499 0.471 0.9690 1.87 3.16 0.49
APR. 0.585 0.495 0.452 0.9689 1.74 1.63 0.48
MAY 0.798 0.498 0.445 0.9610 1.55 1.51 0.41
JUNE 0.560 0.487 0.480 0.9669 0.98 1.34 0.35
JULY 0.693 0.482 0.483 0.9795 0.94 1.01 0.30
AUG. 2.012 0.445 0.475 0.9558 1.18 1.47 0.32
SEPT. 1.053 0.462 0.491 0.9764 1.14 1.70 0.35
OCT. 0.832 0.450 0.509 0.9786 1.33 0.98 0.38
NOV. 0.737 0.434 0.525 0.9807 2.02 1.23 0.44
DEC. 0.482 0.443 0.531 0.9693 1.56 1.93 0.52

Regression Coefficients, Multiple Correlation Coefficient
(MCC), Max and Min values of Residuals, and its standard
deviation (STD) are given in Table 2. In the same way,
Table 3 is a result for the observations made 3 times daily,
and Table 4 is for the observations made twice daily (Max
and Min). The regression coefficients values play signifi-
cant roles on DT24. For example in Table 1, a3 values
(15:30NLT temperatures) would be more significant to
DT24 than the other observation time values (a1, a2 and
a4). Overall the estimation by MLRA results in highly
accurate DTest when compared to DT24. This is explained
by the very high values of MCC, small residuals (
DT =
DT24  DTest), and its STD. The accuracy of the estimation
is roughly proportional to the observation frequency. In
particular, when comparing the STD of residuals for each
observation frequency, it is obvious that the result for
observations taken 4 times daily is far better than the other
two observation combinations.
[15] For the moment, the months that show the highest
and lowest MCC values will be focused on. For the
observations made 4 times daily, February has the highest
value and August the lowest value. Figure 1 shows scatter-
ing maps of correlation and residual for February and
August respectively. As shown in Figures 1a and 1b,
definite correlations (R = 0.9944 for February, R = 0.9869
for August) can be seen between DT24 and DTest, and in
Figures 2a and 2b, it indicates that the estimation by
observations made 4 times daily, values are within about
0.5.. For observations made 3 times daily, July has the
highest MCC value and August the lowest MCC value
(Figure 2). For observations made twice daily, November
also has the highest value and August the lowest value
(Figure 3). The results for August for every observational
combination give the lowest MCC. Comparing to the error
from the estimation by observations made 4 times daily
(Table 2), that for observations made 3 and 2 times daily
become half precisions (Tables 3 and 4). Consequently, as
already mentioned before, the results for the observations
made 4 times daily yield the best estimation with small
residuals.
4. Discussions
[16] Firstly, it is apparent that MLRA is one of the most
effective methods to estimate daily mean temperature from
data taken at a limited daily observation frequency. Estimat-
ing accurate daily mean temperature is an effective process
by which a more accurate monthly mean temperature can be
derived. Thus, accurate MTest can be calculated from DT24.
Generally when applying the MLRA method, as observa-
tion becomes more frequent, the estimation results improve.
[17] Many attempts have been made to homogenize the
monthly mean temperature. These methods usually involve
interpolating the station data to a regular grid [e.g., Hansen
and Lebedeff, 1987; Jones, 1994; Peterson et al., 1998]. For
these methods, the data of another nearby station is
required. On the contrary, the MLRA method can be applied
to its own station data.

Figure 1. Scatter plots indicating correlations between Figure 2. Scatter plots indicating correlations between
daily mean temperature of 24 hourly observations (DT24) daily mean temperature of 24 hourly observations (DT24)
and estimated daily mean temperature of observations made and estimated daily mean temperature of observations made
4 times daily (DTest). * (a) February (b) August. 3 times daily (DTest). * (a) July (b) August.
39 - 4 ZAIKI ET AL.: A STATISTICAL ESTIMATE OF DAILY MEAN TEMPERATURE
Figure 3. Scatter plots indicating correlations between
daily mean temperature of 24 hourly observations (DT24)
and estimated daily mean temperature of observations made
twice (Max and Min) daily (DTest). * (a) November (b)
August.
[18] In addition to the advantages of the MLRA method
as proved above, standard deviations (STD) of residuals
for estimated monthly mean temperature and simply calcu-
lated monthly mean temperature by Max and Min were
compared. For example, in August, the STD of residuals
for estimated temperature is 0.0798, and the value for
simply calculated temperature is 1.0144. I In short,
monthly mean temperature estimated by MLRA is much
more precise than the value calculated more simply. There-
fore it is possible to discuss climate change by using the
data calculated by MLRA.
[19] Secondly, among the results from the 3 different
observational combinations, the lowest MCC values can be
seen in August for every combination. It can be assumed
that this fact is related to the sea breeze effect, because the
Nagasaki meteorological observatory is located at the sea-
side. Generally the sea breeze effect is most pronounced in
coastal areas of Japan, especially in August. This assump-
tion needs further analysis and discussion.
[20] Thirdly, in Japan, official meteorological observa-
tions began in the 1870s at JMA observation stations
(currently 159 stations). In addition to the manned stations,
a mesoscale observation network of over 1,300 observing
stations, called the AMeDAS, has been operated since 1976.
The data from those two observation systems have been
commonly used. Before AMeDAS, however, the meteoro-
logical observations at about 2,000 climatological stations
were already being carried out, dating back to the start of
the 20th century. This regional data contains daily max,
min, and 09:00JST (or 10:00JST) temperature observations.
It is therefore possible to apply this temperature data to the
MLRA method and examine climate change very accurately
for a much longer period.
5. Conclusions
[21] The aim of this study is to estimate daily mean
temperature from a limited number of daily observations.
The MLRA method was applied to this estimation, and its
results were found to be of reasonable accuracy. Of especial
accuracy were the results obtained from data observed 4
times daily, compared with that of data observed 3 and 2
times daily. These DTest can be calculated to MTest with
sufficient accuracy. Therefore DTest and MTest are fairly
reliable and can be used to discuss climate change and
variability.
[22] The method to estimate daily mean temperature
when only a limited number of daily observations at one
station are available is reported. This method can be applied
to other datasets.
[23] Beneficial future studies should concentrate on retest-
ing and refining the MLRA method, for example, estimation
using other observational combinations, and estimation
using other weather elements such as cloud cover.
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M. Zaiki, K. Kimura, and T. Mikami, Department of Geography,
Graduate school of Science, Tokyo Metropolitan University, Japan.