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Monmouth Case Study DCF Analysis
Monmouth Case Study DCF Analysis
per-share data)
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
Operations
Sales $ 48.5 $ 49.1 $ 53.7 $ 54.8 $ 55.3
Cost of Goods 32.6 33.1 35.9 37.2 37.9
Selling, General and
Administrative Costs 10.7 11.1 11.5 11.9 12.3
Depreciation Expense 2.0 2.3 2.4 2.3 2.1
Interest Expense .4 .7 .8 .8 .8
Income Before Taxes 2.8 1.9 3.1 2.6 2.2
Taxes 1.1 .8 1.2 1.0 .9
Net Income $1.7 $1.1 $1.9 $1.6 $1.3
Percentage of Sales
Cost of Goods 67% 67% 67% 68% 69%
Sell, Genl, Admin. 22% 23% 21% 22% 22%
Operating Income 6.6% 5.3% 7.3% 6.2% 5.4%
Stockholder Information
Earnings Per Share $ 2.91 $ 1.88 $ 3.25 $ 2.74 $ 2.23
Dividends Per Share 1.60 1.60 1.60 1.60 1.60
Book Value Per Share 49.40 49.68 51.33 52.47 53.10
Market Price 33-46 35-48 29-41 25-33 23-32
Price/Earnings Ratio 11-16 10-26 9-13 9-12 10-14
Shares Outstanding 584,000 584,000 584,000 584,000 584,000
Exhibit 2 Balance Sheet at December 31, 2002, Robertson Tool Company (millions of
dollars)
Assets Liabilities and Net Worth
Financial Position
Current Assets $ 25 $ 46 $ 49 $ 41 $ 46
Current Liabilities 6 11 15 10 13
Net Working Capital 19 35 34 31 33
Long-term Debt 10 18 16 15 17
Shareholders Equity 21 36 40 41 41
Stockholders Information
Earnings Per Share $ .78 $ .61 $ .59 $ .21 $ .54
Dividends Per Share 0 0 0 0.20 0
Book Value Per Share 8.31 6.86 7.37 7.38 7.45
Market Price 6-17 10-18 7-18 4-10 5-8
Price/Earnings Ratio 8-22 16-30 12-31 19-48 9-15
Shares Outstanding 2,525,600 5,245,900 5,430,100 5,510,000 5,501,000
Exhibit 4 ProFormas for Robertson Tool (millions of dollars)
Actual Forecasts
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
$ 69.8
45.4
24.4
13.3
2.9
8.2
3.3
$ 4.9
65%
19%
$ 23.5
(2.9)
2.9
$ 23.5
Exhibit 5 Five-Year Forecast of Monmouth, Inc. Earnings, Excluding Robertson Tool (millions of dollars except
per-share data)
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Times Interest Earned 3.8 3.2 7.1 11.5 7.8 9.3 3.5
Debt % Capital
balance sheet values 98% 52% 30% 27% 29% 40% 28%
market values 29% 37% 20% 17% 19% 24% 37%
Bond Rating BB- BB+ BBB - A+ A -
Share Price $ 42 $ 42 $ 29 $ 22 $ 26 $ 27 $ 30
Earnings Per Share 2.80 3.20 2.00 1.78 1.80 2.32 2.32
Price/Earnings 15.0 13.1 14.5 12.4 14.4 11.6 13.5
Equity Beta 1.00 1.00 1.00 .75 1.05 .95
Asset Beta .71 .63 .80 .63 .85 .73
Exhibit 7 Information on United States Capital Markets
I. Interest Rates in May 2003
30-Year U.S. U.S. Corporate Bonds Rated
Treasury Bonds AA A BBB BB
4.10% 4.52% 5.07% 6.07% 7.96%
II. Estimated Market Risk Premium = 5.5% over 30-Year U.S. Treasury Bonds
III. Median Values of Key Ratios by Standard & Poors Rating Category
AAA AA A BBB BB B
Times Interest Earned (X) 27.3 18.0 10.4 5.9 3.4 1.5
EBITDA / Interest (X) 31.0 21.4 12.8 7.6 4.6 2.3
Pre-tax Return on Capital (%) 25.2 25.4 19.7 15.1 12.5 8.8
Debt as % Capital (%) 12.6 36.1 38.4 43.7 51.9 74.9
Number of companies 6 15 118 213 297 345
IV. Debt and Times Interest Earned Ratios for Selected Industries
AAA AA A BBB BB
Food Processing
Debt % Capital 44% - 51% 54% 53%
Times Interest Earned 7.9 - 6.7 4.3 2.9
Electrical Equipment
Debt % Capital - - 36% 48% 72%
Times Interest Earned - - 7.3 3.2 1.6
Electric Utilities
Debt % Capital - 46% 54% 57% 73%
Times Interest Earned - 4.0 3.4 2.7 2.0
Actual Forecast
2002 2003 2004
Sales 55.3 58.1 61.0
Less cost of goods sold -39.5 -40.8
Gross Profit 18.6 20.1
Less Operating Expenses -14.4 -14.5
Selling & admin expenses 12.2 12.2
Depreciation 2.2 2.3
Operating Profit 4.2 5.6
Taxation expense (40%) -1.7 -2.3
EBIAT 2.5 3.4
Depreciation 2.2 2.3
Cash Flows from operations 4.7 5.7
Increase / (Decrease) in in working capital 6.0 -0.9
Capital Expenditures -3.2 -3.3
Free Cash Flows 7.5 1.5
Market Assumptions
Risk-free rate 4.10% Year
Market Risk Premium 6.00% 2002
2003
Equity Assumption 2004
Beta (assumed) 1 2005
Cost of Equity 10.10% 2006
2007
Debt Assumptions
Pre-tax cost of debt 6.67%
Effetive tax rate 40.00%
After-tax cost of debt 4.00%
Firm Assumptions
Firm value estimate ($ mil) 29
Debt-to-Capital ratio 28.00%
WACC 8.39%
Perpetuity (Terminal) Growth Rate 5.00%
Reference: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=77ivvN2Uk28
Growth RateFCF ($ mil) Terminal Value Total
0
1 5.00% 7.5 7.5
2 5.00% 1.5 1.5
3 5.00% 2.3 2.3
4 5.00% 2.8 2.8
5 5.00% 3.0 91.5 94.4
Firm Value
Debt Value
Equity Value
Shares Outstanding
6.9
1.3
1.8
2.0
63.1
75.1
21.0 28%
54.1 72%
584000
9.2643638156E-005
$ 92.64