Chnh sch mc tiu lm pht kinh nghim ca mt s nc chu v bi

hc cho Vit Nam

PGS.,TS. T Kim Ngc v Nguyn Khng Duy1

Bc qua khng hong ti chnh chu nm 1997, Ngn hng Trung ng

(NHTW) ba nc Thi Lan, Philippines v Indonesia chuyn t iu hnh chnh
sch tin t (CSTT) theo mc tiu tin t sang c ch mc tiu lm pht (IT). Mc
d kt qu c s khc bit tng quc gia nhng vic theo ui khun kh IT u
chng t kh nng duy tr mc lm pht thp cng vi mc bin ng trong
phm vi kim sot. V quan trng hn, khng c bng chng v s nh i gia
lm pht v tng trng. Trn thc t, c ba quc gia u theo ui c ch lm
pht mc tiu linh hot (FIT) nhm tm kim s cn bng ti u gia n nh gi
c v cc mc tiu v m khc, trong Indonesia l quc gia tin phong trong
vic a cc ch s ti chnh vo hm phn ng chnh sch (biu hin ca vic theo
ui phin bn khc ca IT).
Nghin cu qu trnh trin khai v thc hin IT ba quc gia c trnh
pht trin kh tng ng vi Vit Nam nhm gip rt ra nhng bi hc cn thit
cho Vit Nam trong thi gian ti.

1. ng c p dng IT
Vic s dng mc tiu tin t tr nn khng ng tin cy sau khng hong
ti chnh chu nm 1997 l ng c quan trng nht cho xu hng la chn mc
tiu lm pht. Nhng thay i v cu trc kinh t v nhng bin i trong th
trng ti chnh lm ri lon vng quay tin t, khin mi quan h gia cung
tin, gi c v sn lng tr nn thiu chc chn. Khng ch thu nhp (i din bi
ch s sn xut cng nghip) m c li sut cng c tm thy c mi quan h
cng chiu vi cu cc khi cung tin M2 v M0 (Akihiro Kubo, 2009). Kt qu l
1
Hc vin Ngn hng
NHTW cc nc lin tc tht bi trong vic kim sot lm pht (Hnh 1). Bn cnh
, yu cu nng cao tnh minh bch cng nh hiu qu iu hnh CSTT nhm
khi phc nim tin ca th trng sau khng hong cng vi nhng thnh cng ca
mt s quc gia la chn c ch IT i trc trong vic n nh lm pht l nhng
nhn t thc y NHTW ba nc chuyn sang khun kh chnh sch mc tiu lm
pht.

Hnh 1: Tht bi ca BI trong kim sot lm pht Indonesia trc khi p dng IT

Lm
Khung mc tiu pht
thc t

Ngun: NHTW Indonesia

2. K thut c ch mc tiu lm pht

2.1. Ch th xc lp mc tiu lm pht
Vic xc lp mc lm pht mc tiu c ba quc gia c phi hp thc
hin bi c NHTW v Chnh ph. Lut NHTW Indonesia nm 2004 quy nh,
mc tiu lm pht do Chnh ph thit lp trn c s tham vn NHTW Indonesia
(BI). Trong khi , Thi Lan, hng nm, MPC (Monetary Pocily Commitee)
cng vi B Ti chnh thit lp mc tiu lm pht v trnh Chnh ph ph duyt
trc khi kt thc thng 12. Khi ng trc nhng trng hp khn cp mang tnh
ri ro h thng, MPC c yu cu phi phi hp cht ch vi Chnh ph nhm
a ra nhng ng ph hp l. Tng t, y ban Phi hp ngn sch pht trin
(DBCC) Indonesia l c quan lin ngnh chu trch nhim thit lp cc mc tiu
kinh t v m thng nin cho Chnh ph nh tc tng trng, lm pht - cc
bin s u vo cho vic ln d ton thu chi v ti tr ngn sch. Thng qua
DBCC, Chnh ph thit lp mc tiu lm pht cho 2 nm tip theo.
Vic phi hp gia Chnh ph v NHTW l iu ht sc cn thit trong vic
m bo kh nng thc hin thnh cng lm pht mc tiu ra. Bi nhng nn
kinh t ang chuyn i, Chnh ph kim sot gi c ca nhiu mt hng thit yu,
ng thi chnh sch tin lng v c cu thu cng c nhng nh hng nht nh
ti lm pht (S 1). S phi hp ny s ni di cnh tay ca NHTW trong vic
kim sot gi c, gip NHTW trnh c nhng p lc ti tr ngn sch ng thi
m bo CSTT nh l mt b phn tng thch trong tng th chnh sch v m
nht qun.

S 1: nh hng ca chnh sch lng ti lm pht

Lng Cu Chi ph Lm
c bn trc sn xut pht
lng
Bng Input - Output

Tc ng vng hai
M hnh
p lc ln tng cu v
lm pht k vng
Ngun: Bo co lm pht, NHTW Thi Lan

2.2. La chn loi lm pht (tng th hay lm pht c bn)cho mc tiu lm

pht
Trong khi Philippines v Indonesia1 la chn lm pht tng th lm mc
tiu, th Thi Lan li l quc gia duy nht trong khu vc s dng lm pht c bn
theo ui mc tiu lm pht. Mi loi lm pht c nhng li th khc nhau v
ty kh nng kim sot cc yu t phi tin t trong ch s gi tiu dng m cc
quc gia c th chn ch s lm pht tng th hoc lm pht c bn. Lm pht
tng th CPI l ch s c s dng ph bin nht o lng lm pht, rt quen
thuc, d hiu i vi cng chng v c cng b vi tr rt ngn. Trong khi
, lm pht c bn (c nh ngha l phn cn li ca lm pht tng th sau khi
loi b mt s mt hng m gi c ca n bin ng nht thi nh lng thc -
thc phm, nng lng) phn nh xu hng nn tng ca lm pht, gip NHTW
trnh c nhng sai lm trong iu hnh nh vic phn ng vi nhng c sc
cung bng vic tng li sut. Vic la chn lm pht c bn trong iu hnh
khng phi v l do gi c ca cc hng ha b loi tr bin ng m v n vt ra
ngoi kh nng kim sot ca NHTW. NHTW khng th lm g trc s tng vt
ca gi du ngoi tr vic y li sut ln cao v to ra mt cuc suy thoi su
ko mt bng gi c ca nn kinh t xung (Blinder, 1997). Vic la chn lm
pht c bn ca Thi Lan cn c ng h bi lp lun rng lm pht c bn vn
chim a s gi hng ha ca lm pht tng th, ng thi s tim cn lm pht
tng th trong di hn (Hnh 2).
Hnh 2: S hi t gia lm pht c bn v lm pht tng th Thi Lan

Lm pht tng
th

Lm pht c
bn

Ngun: Bo co lm pht, NHTW Thi Lan

Bng 1: So snh cc thng k c bn gia lm pht tng th v lm pht c bn
Thi Lan gia hai giai on 1990-2000 v 2000-2010
 Giai on 1990-2000 Giai on 2000-2010
Ch tiu
CPI CORE CPI CORE
Trung bnh 4,85 4,80 2,59 1,08
lch chun 2,34 1,73 2,14 0,88
nhn 0,84 1,08 1,70 0,27
lch -0,42 -0,79 0,0074 0,47
Khong bin thin 11,8 8,2 13,6 4,9
Ngun: Paradeep Kushwaha v Anders Stjernberg, 2011

Tuy nhin, thc t s dng lm pht c bn nh ch tiu chnh thc cho

khun kh chnh sch mc tiu lm pht cng ang t ra mt s cu hi. Trc
tin, vic theo ui lm pht c bn lm mc tiu khng tnh n vn cng
bng x hi. Khi m 60% dn s c thu nhp thp nht ch chim 25% GDP, theo
lut cu Engel th i sng ca h b tc ng mnh bi s bin ng gi c ca
nhng hng ha thit yu nh lng thc v nng lng. Nh vy, vic NHTW ch
phn ng trc s thay i ca lm pht c bn s khng m bo c phc li
x hi, lm gim i ngha ca vic n nh gi c. Mt cu hi khc c t ra
l, phi chng gi du tng ch l c sc ngoi sinh, khi m thng k cho thy gi
du lin tc gia tng u n trong sut ba thp k va qua bi nng lc sn xut
v khai thc du ca th gii khng theo kp nhu cu du cho pht trin kinh t,
c bit l ca cc nc mi ni. Ngoi ra, nhiu nghin cu ch ra rng nu
nh trong c ch mc tiu tin t, nhng bin i trong cu trc kinh t v th
trng ti chnh gy ri lon vng quay tin t, khin cung tin khng cn xng
ng vi vai tr mc tiu trung gian th iu tng t ang c nhn thy trong
mi quan h gia lm pht c bn v lm pht tng th trong di hn trc nhng
nh hng mnh m t cc quc gia mi ni BRIC. Cc quc gia ny tham gia th
trng hng ha quc t vi vai tr l nhng nc xut khu hng ha c bn
core goods (tng cung), ng thi nhp khu hng ha phi c bn non-core
goods (tng cu) lm cho gi c tng i ca hng ha phi c bn so vi hng
ha c bn tng ln, ni rng khong cch gia lm pht tng th v lm pht c
bn, lm cho chng khng hi t nhau trong di hn (Bng 1).
Nh vy, c th kt lun rng, ng sau s la chn gia lm pht c bn
hay lm pht tng th l s nh i gia kh nng kim sot gi c v mc tn
nhim ca NHTW. Tuy nhin, d c la chn ch tiu no i chng na th vic
tnh ton cc ch s ny nn c thc hin bi mt c quan thng k c lp s
gp phn nng cao mc tn nhim ca c ch IT, trnh cc hnh vi thao tc k
thut nhm x l cc ch s theo hng c li cho NHTW. Bn cnh , xu hng
bin ng ca th trng hng ha quc t cng l gi cho vic s dng kt hp
c ch tiu lm pht tng th v lm pht c bn trong khun kh chnh sch mc
tiu lm pht.
2.3. Mc lm pht v khung mc tiu
Vi c th tng trng kinh t ph thuc nhiu vo xut khu, yu cu m
bo nng lc cnh tranh thng mi quc t ph hp vi quy lut ngang gi sc
mua l iu m cc NHTW lun phi tnh ti khi thit lp mc tiu lm pht. Xt
trng hp ca Thi Lan, mc mc tiu lm pht c duy tr n nh trong
khong t 0 - 3,5% giai on 2000 - 2008 v sau l 0,5 - 3,0% giai on t 2009
n nay c cho l ph hp vi tng quan lm pht ca cc i tc thng mi
chnh; c th, mc lm pht trung bnh ca cc i tc p dng IT l 2,2% i vi
nhng quc gia pht trin v 3,3% vi cc nc ang pht trin, trong khi cc
i tc khng p dng IT c mc lm pht bnh qun l 2,3% trong sut giai on
t 2000 - 2009. Khung lm pht cng cn c thit lp vi bin rng (2%
vi Indonesia v Philippines, cn Thi Lan l 3,5% trc khi iu chnh xung
2,5% t nm 2009) nhm m bo kh nng hp th cc c sc ca NHTW trong
iu kin kinh t bt n, trnh nhng iu chnh li sut ch o qu thng xuyn,
gy bt n ti th trng ti chnh, gim lng tin ca th trng; khung mc tiu
hp l, ng thi to ra d a cho cc NHTW quan tm ti cc mc tiu khc
trong ngn hn nh tng trng kinh t, n nh t gi
L trnh xc lp khung mc tiu cc quc gia c xut pht im kim sot
lm pht khc nhau s khc nhau. Vi nhng quc gia c mc lm pht cao thi
gian khi im p dng IT, a lm pht mc tiu trung v di hn v mc thp
v n nh, phi tri qua cc iu chnh hng nm hoc nh k 2 nm ty thuc
vo vic hon thin cc iu kin p dng. Trong khi Thi Lan lun duy tr mc
tiu lm pht kh n nh th Indonesia v Philippines lin tc phi iu chnh mc
mc tiu ca mnh. Indonesia, lm pht mc tiu c iu chnh tng t 3-5%
trong nm 2000 ln n 91% nm 2003 trc khi gim xung 51% vo nm
2008. Con s ny cho cc nm t 2010-2012 ln lt l 5%, 5% v 4,5% vi bin
1%, hng ti mc lm pht trong trung hn khong 3 - 4%
(Hnh 3). iu tng t cng c nhn thy Philippines, khi m sau 6 nm s
dng khung lm pht (2002 - 2007), mc tiu lm pht c thit lp li vo
nm 2008 theo lm pht im mc tiu vi bin 1% trc khi chuyn sang
mc tiu lm pht c nh cho trung hn mc 41% vo nm 2012 - 2014.
Hnh 3: Tin trnh chng lm pht Indonesia ( 2005-2013)

Ngun: Harmanta, M. Barik Bathluddin v Jati Waluyo, 2011

2.4. Tnh minh bch v mc tn nhim ca NHTW trong c ch IT

Tnh minh bch trong c ch IT ca cc nc khng nhng th hin vic
cng b thng tin r rng, cc trao i chnh sch vi cng chng m cn th hin
 vic chu trch nhim ca NHTW khi khng thc hin c mc tiu. Tuy nhin,
vic p dng iu khon linh hot gip NHTW c d a thc hin cam kt chc
hn, c bit trong nhng trng hp cc nguyn nhn lm pht vt ra ngoi tm
kim sot ca NHTW: i) s bin ng gi c nng sn, ii) thin tai, dch bnh hay
bin c ln tc ng ti nn kinh t, iii) c sc gi du v cc sn phm lin quan
v iv) nhng thay i ca chnh ph v h thng thu, chnh sch tin lng v tr
cp (Philippines). Mc d vy, vic chp nhn nhng trng hp cho php lm
pht chch khi mc tiu s c nhng tc ng khng mong mun ti s tin tng
ca cng chng, v nu lun lp li, s lm lch hng k vng ca th trng.
Hn na, mc tn nhim ca NHTW ng vai tr v cng quan trng
trong qu trnh thc hin IT. Mc tn nhim cng ln, khong thi gian hng
n lm pht thp v n nh cng c rt ngn, t l hy sinh cng nh, NHTW
phi i mt vi nhng th thch t khc nghit hn trong vic nh i gia bnh
n lm pht v n nh ha sn lng. Tri li, vic lin tc tht ha v phn ng
chm chp ca NHTW s lm chm tin trnh chng lm pht; khi , mi n lc
gp gp nhm gim mc tiu lm pht s dn ti li sut phi tng nhiu hn, gy
tn thng nghim trng ti nn kinh t thc v t gi (nht l trong iu kin nn
kinh t m, nh, s tng gi ca ng ni t s cng lm nghim trng thm s
nh i gia lm pht v s ton dng ngun lc nn kinh t) (Harmanta, M.
Barik Bathluddin v Jati Waluyo, 2011).
2.5. M hnh d bo
NHTW c ba quc gia u xy dng m hnh kinh t d bo trin vng lm
pht trn c s nhng nh gi v tnh hnh lm pht hin ti v nhng kch bn
cho cc bin s kinh t trong khong thi gian d bo. (Xem S 2)
M hnh kinh t lng ca BOT (BOTMM) d bo lm pht v sn lng
cho 8 qu tip theo, l c s a ra nhng quyt sch. BOTMM bao gm 5 khi: i)
khu vc sn xut; ii) khu vc cng; iii) khu vc quc t; iv) khu vc tin t v v)
khu vc gi c. a ra d bo, BOT xy nn nhng gi nh v cc nhn t
ngoi sinh nh gi du th Dubai, tc tng trng GDP ca cc i tc thng
mi, t gi khu vc, li sut ca FED v chi tiu cng, ng thi kt hp nhng
nh gi v tc ng ca chng vi cc kt qu a ra bi BOTMM. Kt qu d
bo c minh ha trn biu qut, phn nh nhng kh nng giao ng xung
quanh gi tr d bo cng vi gi tr xc sut tng ng (Hnh 4).

S 2: Quy trnh ra quyt nh ca BOT

Gi nh v cc M hnh li
Cc m hnh khc bin ngoi sinh

Vn lin quan nh gi ca D bo
v tc ng chnh MPC
sch

Ra quyt nh Gi chnh sch

Ngun:NHTW Thi Lan

Hnh 4: Minh ha biu qut

%

Nm T Nm T+1 Nm T+2

Bn cnh , c th xem xt tng th cc nhn t cha c trong m hnh,

BOT cn xy dng chng trnh trao i thng tin vi cc doanh nghip vi s
tham gia ca 300 - 400 doanh nghip ng vai tr ch cht trong nn kinh t c
la chn, phn lm ba nhm: nhm khu vc nng nghip (12%), nhm cng
nghip v xy dng (48%) v nhm dch v (40%). K vng v nhng phn hi t
pha khu vc doanh nghip l ngun thng tin nh tnh, hu ch cho qu trnh ra
quyt nh ca BOT.
2.6. H thng cng c CSTT c phi hp s dng cho mc tiu lm pht
C ch IT tn dng trit s phi kt hp ca tt c cc cng c CSTT
hin c, song c mt s im ng lu sau:
Th nht, NHTW c ba nc u xy dng cho mnh mt loi li sut
chnh sch ch o, mang hiu ng thng bo r rng, c la chn cn thn trn
nn tng nghin cu k lng v c ch truyn ti CSTT. Nu nh Indonesia, li
sut c quyt nh hng thng trong cuc hp ca Hi ng Thng c cn c
vo chnh lch gia lm pht hin ti v lm pht mc tiu, lm c s cho li
sut tn phiu NHTW (SBI) 1 thng (bnh qun gia quyn); th Phillippines, li
sut cho vay/i vay d tr qua m c xc nh lm c s tham chiu cho cc li
sut trn th trng tin t. Mt cch tng t, BOT s dng li sut repo 14 ngy
thng bo nh hng iu hnh CSTT (nghin cu nh lng ca June
Charoenseang, Pornkamol Manakit, 2006 chng minh s tn ti mi quan h
trong di hn gia li sut repo 14 ngy vi cc li sut trn th trng ti chnh,
vi mc chuyn ti l 96,3%). Tuy nhin, t nm 2007, li sut iu hnh
chuyn sang li sut repo song phng 1 ngy. Nguyn nhn l vi k vng li
sut chnh sch gia tng trc cuc hp ca BOT, cc NHTM gim mnh cc giao
dch c k hn 14 ngy trn lin ngn hng, thay vo , khi lng giao dch k
hn 1 ngy tng t bin lm cho li sut lin ngn hng gim su, nh lc hng
th trng;
Th hai, vi IT, mi quan h gia cung tin v lm pht khng phi l qu
quan trng trong vic t c mc tiu lm pht, chin lc ny cho php NHTW
s dng mi ngun lc c c h thng cng c tt nht. C ch duy tr khung
li sut tin gi v cho vay hp l ca NHTW gip kim sot li sut ngn hn
trong khong mc tiu mong mun, nhm nh hng th trng v gp phn n
nh th trng ti chnh. Trong khun kh ny, vai tr iu tit v s linh hot s
dng cng c nghip v th trng m kt hp vi chnh sch chit khu ca
NHTW ng vai tr quyt nh. (Hnh 5)

Hnh 5: M hnh h thng cng c iu tit li sut ngn hn

H tr chnh sch: gim
s bin ng ca li sut

Ca s cho
iu
vay chnh
thanh
khon
thng
qua
OMO
Ca s tin
gi
Li sut nh hng, lm c c tham
chiu cho li sut trn th trng tin
t

Ngun: NHTW Indonesia

3. Kt qu thc hin IT cc quc gia

Kt qu thc hin IT l khng ging nhau gia cc nc, trong khi Thi Lan
t c nhng thnh cng kh n tng th Philippines v Indonesia thng
xuyn vi phm mc tiu. T thng 4/2000 n thng 7/2011, lm pht thc t
Thi Lan c gi trong khong mc tiu trong 42 qu, chim ti 90% tng thi
gian. Rt t khi khung mc tiu b vi phm, giai on t 2009Q2 n 2010Q1, lm
pht di trn di do chng trnh ct gim chi thng xuyn ca Chnh ph v
min gim hc ph 15 nm. Trong khi t 2002 n 2011, ch c ba nm t 2009
- 2011, BSP t c mc lm pht mc tiu. Giai on 2002 - 2008, Thng c
BSP phi lin tc gi th gii trnh ti Chnh ph v nguyn nhn khng kim sot
c lm pht, ng thi a ra gii php cng nh thi hn a lm pht thc
t v mc mc tiu. Philippines trong sut giai on t khi p dng IT n nay, ch
c hai nm l mc lm pht thc t c duy tr trong khung mc tiu tuyn b.
(Hnh 6)

Hnh 6: Kt qu thc hin IT cc quc gia

INDONESI PHILIPPIN
A Lm pht y- TrungES
bnh
o-y

THAILAND Trn
Lm Lm pht
pht theo qu
hng
thng

Sn
di

Ngun: Takeshi Inoue, Yuki Toyoshime v Shigeyuki Hamori, 2012

 Mc d vy, xt v tng th th c ba quc gia u t c nhng kt qu
kh quan trn phng din duy tr mc lm pht thp v n nh hn so vi thi k
cha p dng IT. Nhng thng k c bn v lm pht thc t cc nc (ngoi tr
lch chun ca lm pht Philippines cao hn mc trc khi p dng c ch
IT) cho thy lm pht c ba quc gia thp hn v t bin ng hn (Bng 2).
Khng nhng th, nghin cu nh lng cn cho thy khng c s nh i gia
n nh lm pht v mc s dng ngun lc bnh thng cc quc gia ny (Reza
Siregar v Siwei Goo, 2008).

Bng 2: Tnh hnh lm pht ca cc nc trc v sau khi thc hin IT

Trc khi p dng IT Sau khi p dng IT
Quc gia Trung Trung
SD Max Min SD Max Min
bnh bnh
Thailand 5,0 1,4 6,2 1,8 1,1 0,8 2,3 0,1
Indonesia 8,7 3,0 12,6 5,1 6,8 2,9 11,1 2,8
Philippines 6,8 1,7 9,3 4,0 5,3 2,4 9,3 2,8
Ngun: Tnh ton t Bo co lm pht ca cc nc, SD l lch chun, Max l gi tr
ln nht, Min l gi tr nh nht

Thc cht c ch IT c thc hin cc quc gia ny l mc tiu lm pht

linh hot (FIT). NHTW ba nc u tuyn b vic thc hin IT khng c ngha l
khng tnh n mc tiu tng trng kinh t. Chnh sch m NHTW ba nc theo
ui vn nhm tm kim s cn bng ti u gia lm pht v tng trng kinh t
trong c qu trnh thit lp mc tiu lm pht cng nh phn ng chnh sch,
hng ti mc lm pht thp v n nh trong trung hn.
Hm thit hi ca NHTW (loss function), ngoi tnh n mc vi phm
mc tiu lm pht (t - *t), cn tnh n cc yu t nh lch sn lng (yt - y*t)
v mc chnh t gi (Et - E*t). C th: L = (t - *t)2 + (yt - y*t)2 + (Et - E*t)2,
trong v l cc h s quan tm ca NHTW i vi lch sn lng v
mc chnh t gi, vi , > 0. IT truyn thng vi mc tiu duy nht l n nh
lm pht xung quanh mc tiu ( = 0, = 0), s dn n vic tht cht hoc m
rng tin t qu mc iu chnh lm pht v mc mc tiu, gy ra nhng bt n
i vi nn kinh t thc v t l hy sinh cao c th y nn kinh t ri vo tnh
trng nh n, c th dn ti mt chu k lm pht cao hn. Ngay trc khng
hong ti chnh 2008, cc quc gia chu theo ui IT iu chnh theo hng
chnh sch mc tiu lm pht linh hot (FIT) thay cho khun kh truyn thng
(Reza Siregar v Siwei Goo, 2008; Josef T. Yap,2003). Sau khng hong ti chnh
v suy thoi kinh t ton cu, BI cn tip tc xy dng v theo ui c ch IT theo
hng a cc ch s an ton ti chnh vo hm phn ng ca mnh (S 3).
S 3: Phin bn mi cho c ch FIT Indonesia

Cng c Mc tiu Ch s chnh Mc tiu

chnh sch hot ng sch /Bin thng tin cui cng

- Cng c CSTT
+ Li sut BI Li sut
- K vng lm pht
+ Qun l thanh - lch sn lng
khon (out gap)
(OMO)
T gi
+ Can thip ngoi
hi n nh
Tng trng tn gi c
- Cng c thn dng v n xu
trng v m n nh h thng
+ Thanh khon ti chnh
+ Tn dng Gi ti sn

Trao i chnh sch Hnh vi ri ro

Phi hp chnh sch

BI Chnh ph BI C quan gim st khu BI: n nh h

vc ti chnh thng ti chnh

Ngun: Bo co lm pht 2010 ca NHTW Indonesia

 Nhng thnh cng v nhng hn ch trong qu trnh thay i v p dng
khun kh chnh sch mc tiu lm pht cc quc gia chu , mc d mi c
phn tch mt cch s b, ch ra nhiu im hu ch cho Vit Nam trong giai
on nghin cu iu kin p dng.
Trc ht, l thi im p dng. Kinh nghim ch ra rng, nu p dng chnh
sch mc tiu lm pht song song vi vic thc hin ci cch kinh t ton din s
khng phi l la chn khn ngoan bi bn thn hai chin lc ny c nhng i
hi tri ngc. Ci cch kinh t i hi vic tp trung v b sung ngun lc (gm
c ngun ti chnh) trong khi theo ui chnh sch mc tiu lm pht yu cu
NHTW phi c kh nng tp trung vo mc tiu n nh gi c v c chnh sch
nht qun trong kim sot gi c. iu ny c th phng hi n tin trnh v hiu
qu ci cch kinh t. Ngc li, nhng thay i trong cc cn i kinh t tng th,
nhng bin ng v m km theo trong qu trnh ci cch kinh t s lm trit tiu
cc cn c d bo cng nh kh nng phn ng ca NHTW v v th m nh
hng ti vic thc hin cc cam kt mc tiu ca CSTT. Thc t cho thy, kt
cc ca n l vic vi phm mc tiu lm pht din ra vi tn sut kh cao trong
sut thi k chng lm pht (disinflation period). Trong trng hp ny, NHTW
cc nc thng la chn khung mc tiu vi bin ln cho n khi cu trc ca
nn kinh t dn n nh v nhng hiu bit tt hn v c ch truyn ti CSTT c
xc lp. NHTW cc nc thng la chn tng cng tnh minh bch v trch
nhim gii trnh nhm m bo rng vic lch mc tiu khng b hiu nhm l do
thiu quyt tm vi vic thc hin chnh sch.
C nhng quan im cho rng thnh cng ca Thi Lan trong c ch IT l
cha thuyt phc bi nng lc sn xut d tha sau khng hong l c s t c
mc lm pht thp v n nh ch khng hn l do c ch IT to nn. Song cng
phi nhn nhn, y l s kho lo trong vic chn thi im p dng. Trong khi
, Indonesia li l mt v d in hnh khc khi vic thc hin IT b gin on
sut khong thi gian t 1999 - 2005 bi vic bm qu nhiu thanh khon duy
tr h thng ngn hng sau khng hong, dn ti vic bt c d phi tip tc theo
ui c ch mc tiu tin t trong giai on ny. Vic theo ui mc tiu lm pht,
sau , ri vo tnh trng vi phm v yu cu iu chnh khung mc tiu thng
xuyn.
Vit Nam ang trong giai on ci cch kinh t ton din, bao gm c h
thng ti chnh v h thng doanh nghip nh nc. Php lut v cng b thng
tin, c ch gii trnh v knh phn hi ang cn rt s khai. V th, vic cn nhc
thi im p dng IT l rt cn thit song song vi vic hon thin iu kin p
dng ti thiu cho khun kh chnh sch ny.
Th hai, loi lm pht tng th (underlying inflation) l la chn ca hu
ht cc quc gia p dng lm pht mc tiu, k c mt s quc gia trc y s
dng mc tiu lm pht c bn. Vit Nam c l khng phi l ngoi l. im khc
bit cn bn ca chnh sch mc tiu lm pht l loi tr mc tiu trung gian v
gim ti thiu tnh khng chc chn (uncertainty) ca CSTT. Bng cch , NHTW
c th s dng mi cng c kim sot mc gi c chung - mc gi nh hng
trc tip ti sn xut v tiu dng cng nh s cng bng trong h thng phn b
ngun lc ca nn kinh t. Vic la chn mc lm pht c bn, thc cht l chp
nhn mt mc tiu trung gian khc vi hy vng n s tip cn vi mc lm pht
tng th trong giai on cam kt mc tiu. Vi thc trng lm pht b chi phi bi
c cc yu t phi tin t v cc knh chuyn ti thiu hiu qu nh iu kin Vit
Nam, th s hi t ca hai mc lm pht l hon ton khng chc chn, v iu ny
c chng minh trong thc t din bin hai mc gi thi gian qua. Vic xc
nh mc lm pht tng th lm mc tiu c ngha l NHTW gn trch nhim ca
mnh vo c cc nhn t m NHTW khng c kh nng chi phi, loi tr trng
hp s dng mc lm pht c bn gii thch v phn on trch nhim gy nn
lm pht Vit Nam thi gian qua gia cc B, ngnh. iu quan trng hn l khi
theo ui mc tiu lm pht, mc mc tiu c la chn v thng nht gia B
Ti chnh v NHNN trn c s xem xt ton din cc iu kin v gii php t
mc tiu. (Hnh 7)
Hnh 7. chnh gia lm pht tng th v lm pht c bn
Vit Nam 2008-2012

lm pht tng th (y/y)

lm pht iu chnh
Lm pht c bn

Ngun: Tng cc Thng k v IMF

Th ba, mc tn nhim chnh sch, hiu qu kim sot lm pht k vng

v t l hy sinh ca 1% gim lm pht l yu t cn cn nhc nghim tc khi la
chn khun kh IT cho chnh sch tin t Vit Nam.
D bo v kim sot mc lm pht k vng l cha kha ca chnh sch mc
tiu lm pht. Trong di hn, sn lng t mc tim nng v lm pht k vng
tip cn mc lm pht thc t vi iu kin mt NHTW tn nhim v quyn lc
theo ui mc tiu lm pht. S thiu thuyt phc trong vic xy dng mc tiu
cng nh mc thiu nht qun trong cc tuyn b v vn hnh cng c chnh
sch s to nn s thiu tin cy v ph hy hiu ng k vng hp l ca th
trng. S liu chng minh trong hn thp k qua Vit Nam, mc lm pht
thc t vo cui nm lun c chnh rt ln so vi mc mc tiu m Quc hi
thng qua vo u nm, k c khi mc tiu ny c iu chnh nhiu ln. Nu
khng ci thin c mc tin cy ca th trng vo cc chnh sch v cc
tuyn b chnh sch s khng th c cng c mu nhim no lm cc mc lm pht
d bo tip cn c mc thc t. iu ny n lt n li lin quan n s thn
trng hp l khi xy dng mc mc tiu m bo ph hp vi nng lc t
c mc tiu ca nn kinh t khi tnh ton ti li ch v gi phi tr. Mt l trnh
thn trng v khng th nng vi cn c quan tm khi cc ch th qun l cng
hng ti mc tiu v li ch ca cng ng v di hn hn l cc li ch cc b v
ngn hn. Mt nn kinh t vi 90% l doanh nghip va v nh, cng ngh thp,
ph thuc vo ngun nguyn liu bn ngoi v ph thuc vn (c vn ngn, trung
v di hn) vo h thng ngn hng, chc chn s dn ti t l hy sinh rt cao khi
theo ui chnh sch mc tiu lm pht. Thc t th trng Vit Nam v ang
chng minh hu qu ny.
Ngoi cc lu v kha cnh k thut ca khun kh IT (c th hc hi t
cc nc) th s thay i t duy cng nh xy dng nn tng cho mt h thng
chnh sch v m minh bch, c cn c thuyt phc v vic cn nhc mt l trnh
thch hp p dng khun kh chnh sch mc tiu lm pht Vit Nam l c bit
quan trng.

1
Trc khi chnh thc p dng IT(7/2005), BI c s dng mc lm pht c bn l mc
tiu trong cc nm 2000 - 2001 sau khi loi tr nh hng ca gi c b chi phi bi chnh ph
v chnh sch thu nhp. Mc mc tiu lm pht tng th c s dng t 2002 v s dng nh
mc mc tiu cho IT nm 2005.

TI LIU THAM KHO

 1. Akihiro Kubo, 2009, Monetary targeting and inflation evidence from
Indonesias post-crisis experience.
2. Harmanta, M. Barik Bathluddin v Jati Waluyo, 2011, Inflation
targeting under imperfect credibility: lessons from Indonesian experience
3. Inflation report of BOT, BI and BSP.
4. Josef T. Yap, 2003, The output gap and its role in inflation-targeting in
the Philippines.
5. June Charoenseang, Pornkamol Manakit, 2006, Thai monetary policy
transmission in an inflation targeting era, Journal of Asian economics.
6. Paradeep Kushwaha v Anders Stjernberg, 2011, Inflation targeting
framework evaluation: A case of Thailand.
7. Reza Siregar v Siwei Goo, 2008, Inflation targeting policy: the
experiences of Indonesia and Thailand, CAMA Working paper series.
8. Takeshi Inoue, Yuki Toyoshime v Shigeyuki Hamori, 2012, Inflation
targeting in Korea, Indonesia, Thailand and the Philippines: the impact on
business cycle synchronization between each country and the world.