Professional Documents
Culture Documents
(Slides) 2016 Democratic Voter Crossover For Trump PDF
(Slides) 2016 Democratic Voter Crossover For Trump PDF
Trump
overperformed
Clinton
overperformed
More Dem
crossover
Less Dem
crossover
Note: only states with >200 Brigade users registered as Democrats have been shaded
Democratic Crossover among Brigade users in
states with polling misses
Brigade Crossover Pledge % vs Baseline Election Results vs Polling Projections
Note: only states with >200 Brigade users registered as Democrats have been shaded
Democratic Crossover among Brigade users in
states with polling misses
Brigade Crossover Pledge % vs Baseline Election Results vs Polling Projections
Note: only states with >200 Brigade users registered as Democrats have been shaded
Trump beat the polls in high crossover states
Correl: 0.85
Adj R2 = 0.70*
p = <0.001
N = 22 states /
25,975 Dems
Correl: 0.85
Adj R2 = 0.70*
Pennsylvania p = <0.001
In 2016, just 45% [of non-college graduates] supported Clinton, a 12-point loss for
the Democrats. In contrast, Trump received 52% of [their] votes, a 10-point gain
for the Republican.
- Lincoln Park Strategies
Summary Output (w/income adjustment)
Summary Output (simple regression)
Polls versus Votes (raw data)
state 538 Margins NYTimes Results Margin Change state 538 Margins NYTimes Results Margin Change
AZ 2.20% 3.50% 0.013 ME -7.40% -2.90% 0.045
CA -22.90% -30.00% -0.071 NC -0.70% 3.60% 0.043
CO -4.00% -4.90% -0.009 NJ -11.50% -14.00% -0.025
CT -12.70% -13.70% -0.01 NM -5.80% -8.30% -0.025
FL -0.70% 1.20% 0.019 NV -1.20% -2.40% -0.012
IA 2.90% 9.40% 0.065 NY -19.00% -22.50% -0.035
KS 12.50% 20.50% 0.08 OK 26.00% 36.40% 0.104
KY 18.20% 29.80% 0.116 OR -9.20% -11.00% -0.018
LA 16.10% 19.70% 0.036 PA -3.70% 7.00% 0.107
MA -23.40% -27.20% -0.038 RI -14.40% -15.50% -0.011
MD -25.70% -26.40% -0.007 WV 26.50% 41.70% 0.152
Pennsylvania vote by Party ID (exit polls)
2012 2016
[Targetsmart] Democratic Crossover among
Brigade users in states with polling misses
Brigade Crossover Pledge vs Baseline Election Results vs Polling Projections
Note: only states with >200 Brigade users registered as Democrats have been shaded