Mizuho Corporate Bank

Technical Analysis 02 August 2010

JPY
JPY=EBS, Last Quote [Candle], Last Quote [Ichimoku 9, 26, 52, 26] Weekly
10Nov09 - 28Aug10

JPY=EBS , Last Quote, Candle Pr

08Aug10 86.37 86.72 86.34 86.61
JPY=EBS , Last Quote, Tenkan Sen 9 94.5
08Aug10 89.04
JPY=EBS , Last Quote, Kijun Sen 26 94
08Aug10 90.47
JPY=EBS , Last Quote, Senkou Span(a) 52 93.5
30Jan11 89.75
JPY=EBS , Last Quote, Senkou Span(b) 52 93
30Jan11 91.29
JPY=EBS , Last Quote, Chikou Span 26 92.5
14Feb10 86.61
92

91.5

91

90.5

90

89.5

89

88.5

88

87.5

87

86.5

86

85.5

85

84.5
22Nov09 12Dec 01Jan 21Jan 10Feb 02Mar 22Mar 11Apr 01May 21May 10Jun 30Jun 20Jul 09Aug

Comment: Another weekly close below 87.00, the lowest weekly closes since 1995. Bearish momentum has
increased again and it is not oversold, though futures on-balance volume is at a new record high. We remind that
that consensus opinion is that dollar/yen should be at 98.00 in 12 months’ time and no analysts polled by Reuters
has estimated it below 82.00. Allow for some serious hesitation at 85.00, with one-month at-the-money implied
volatility surprisingly trading just under its very long term mean at 11.15%. We favour another cautious downside
probe this week.

Strategy: Sell at 86.60; stop above 87.65. First target 86.00/85.85, then 85.75/85.50.
Chart Levels:
Support Resistance Direction of Trade
86.15 86.73
85.95 87.05
85.85 87.45
85.50 87.60*
85.00/84.82** 88.12**

Produced by London Branch - Nicole Elliott +44-20-7786-2509

The information contained in this paper is based on or derived from information generally available to the public from sources believed to be reliable. No representation or
warranty is made or implied that it is accurate or complete. Any opinions expressed in this paper are subject to change without notice. This paper has been prepared
solely for information purposes and if so decided, for private circulation and does not constitute any solicitation to buy or sell any instrument, or to engage in any trading
strategy.

Charts provided by Reuters.