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Support for preventive mass evacuation

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Conference Paper January 2011

DOI: 10.1049/cp.2011.0277

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 SUPPORT FOR PREVENTIVE MASS EVACUATION
PLANNING IN URBAN AREAS
Gilles Morel (1) - Franois Hissel (2) Xiao Juan Jia (1)
(1) AVENUES GSU research team, Universit de Technologie de Compigne, France
gilles.morel@utc.fr
(2) Centre dEtudes Techniques Maritimes et Fluviales (CETMEF), French Ministry of Sustainable
Development francois.hissel@eveloppement-durable.gouv.fr
Keywords: Mass evacuation - Decision support Flood
management - Crisis planning Coastal risk.
Abstract
This article presents an approach for planning mass
evacuations in the event of major disasters that can be
forecast at least 24 hours in advance. It also describes an
evacuation management support tool based on this approach.
We focused on coastal and estuary towns exposed to storm
tide flooding - a risk that is increasing as the sea level rises as
a result of climate change. This scenario is one of several
being studied in the European Union FP7 project THESEUS,
in which our approach will be tested at several coastal and
estuary sites in Europe. The initial results for the Gironde
estuary (the French pilot site) and the Bordeaux urban area
show that by a translating expert analysis into a
multiparameter assessment with the ArcGIS geographic
information system, it is possible of optimize evacuee
management and evaluate the impact of strategic decision
criteria such as vertical evacuation (confinement) and/or
horizontal evacuation (departure from the zone at risk).
1Introduction
Despite the worldwide introduction of prevention policies,
urban areas are becoming increasingly exposed to natural and
man-made disasters. This is due to a combination of
demographic growth, urban sprawl and the greater probability
of extreme natural phenomena (climate change, flooding, etc.)
and "man-made" incidents (nuclear and chemical accidents,
etc.). For most of the major disasters of the last decade (such
as Hurricane Katrina in the USA (2005), Storm Xynthia in
France (2010), the 2006 Asian tsunami and the series of
disasters that has just hit Japan), the most deadly period can
be forecast and the number of victims can be reduced by
implementing (i) an overall crisis management plan and (ii)
civil protection plans for the zones at risk. Protection may be
based on confinement in buildings (so-called "vertical
evacuation"), departure from the zones at risk ("horizontal
evacuation") or a combination of the two.
There have been few large-scale population evacuations in
France. Furthermore, preparation for such an eventuality is
often lacking or even voluntarily avoided by the authorities,
who rarely dare to tackle such a technically complex and
politically sensitive problem. Nevertheless, the major floods
in the not-too-distant past (Paris in 1910, the Loire valley in
the 19th century), the increase in catastrophic flooding and
storm tides over the last ten years (in the south of France and
the Atlantic coast) and the forecasts that can be made on the
basis of the International Panel on Climate Change's scenarios
suggest that some of France's large urban areas are likely to
be severely impacted by major flooding (thus engendering the
lives of thousands of inhabitants) in the coming decades. This
perspective should prompt national and local authorities to
draw up evacuation plans based on increasingly dramatic
scenarios, since the once-in-a-century reference event
currently used in France to scale safety measures is clearly
inadequate in a context of climate change.
With higher exposure to natural risks, other countries have a
stronger risk management culture and already have
experience of mass evacuations. This is notably the case in
the Netherlands (where 1953's severe winter floods led to the
evacuation of 72,000 people), the United States (after being
faced with the evacuation in New Orleans during Hurricane
Katrina) and, most recently, Japan (after the Tohoku
earthquake off the Pacific coast prompted the evacuation of
215,000 people - a record figure).
The international scientific community has not yet
comprehensively addressed the general issue of evacuation,
due to the latter's extremely multidisciplinary and non-
academic nature. Most of the studies performed since the
1970s have been prompted by national situations and
following requests by the national authorities in the United
States (due to cyclones [7], hurricanes [9] and nuclear
accidents) and, more recently, in the Netherlands (with the
risk of flooding and dike breakthrough [4]). The literature
tends to cover a specific aspect of evacuation, such as traffic
simulation [3][4] or the behaviour of inhabitants instructed to
evacuate [2][15][18]. In terms of decision support, it is clear
that none of the existing research efforts have provided local
managers with operational assistance for designing
evacuation plans.
Here, we present work aimed at building an overall decision
support process for designing and managing evacuation plans
in the event of major crisis (notably coastal, estuary or river
flooding) affecting a large urban area. Before presenting our
approach, method, model (section 3), initial applications and
technical solutions (section 4), we shall specify the context,
objectives and parameters involved in mass evacuation
(section 2).
2The evacuation problem
2.1. Context and research objectives
Our research on evacuations solely concerns disasters that can
be forecast at least 24 hours in advance and that, in view of
their scale and intensity, threaten the lives of hundreds or
thousands of people in large urban areas. The types of events
concerned are essentially those that can be forecast by using
physical measurements, observations and/or models. This
primarily means storms, hurricanes (or typhoons) and
flooding that can be anticipated a few days or a few hours
ahead of time on the basis of meteorological data.
Nevertheless, we have not ruled out extension of our method
to other phenomena with impacts in space and/or in time that
can be forecast to a lesser extent, such as tsunamis, forest
fires and nuclear accidents.
The method presented here primarily concerns flood events
caused by conventional river flooding (overflow), relatively
foreseeable dike breakthrough and coastal storm flooding
(such as that caused by Atlantic Storm Xynthia in 2010). The
key issue is to identify the crisis management plan that will
save most lives when implemented in advance and given the
data and resources that are available in the vigilance and pre-
alert phases. Regardless of the exact situation and the
available data, the decision to evacuate is never an easy one
because it is often difficult to evaluate its human,
organisational and economic consequences. Accordingly,
decision makers need clear indicators and a reference
framework for implementation.
2.2. Decision support for evacuations: which decisions and
which decision-makers?
The effects of disasters and major crises do not stop at the
administrative borders of a given locality, district, county or
region. Crisis management necessarily involves various
territorial stakeholders at different levels of scale and
responsibility; these stakeholders must collaborate, coordinate
their actions and optimize resource use.
The structural and political organisation of risk/crisis
management systems in a given country is an important
parameter that must be taken into account when designing
and implementing optimal evacuation plans. In both
situations, this collaborative process should involve all the
stakeholders in safety and crisis management: local elected
representatives and their technical services, state services
(civil safety, forecasting, state representatives), managers of
privately and publicly owned networks and utilities and,
indeed, citizens themselves, who may wish to express an
opinion, contribute information or even participate in rescue
operations.
Our method firstly aims at providing evacuation plan design
support, since the preparation phase is primordial for the
optimal management of (fortunately very rare) severe events.
However, if guidelines and modelled scenarios are to be
credible, they must incorporate as much knowledge as
possible concerning the implementation of these plans in a
real crisis. Since it is generally difficult to validate crisis
scenarios and rescue plans "on the fly" during a disaster, it is
necessary to use simulation exercises in the field (difficult for
mass evacuations) or collect feedback after the crisis has
subsided [7][11].
2.3. The evacuation process
A mass evacuation in an urban area is a complex process in
space and time. Movement of the population out of at-risk
areas via the road network has been intensively studied in
modelling and digital simulation work - notably by adapting
standard road traffic models [5]. However, this approach only
addresses one part of the overall process. The primary
objective of evacuation plans is to get as many people as
possible to safety over a short period of time and, ideally,
before the disaster is forecast to hit (i.e. preventive
evacuation). This is a race against time, with a range of
obstacles and problems that we shall endeavour to list in the
next section.
The timeline of events has notably been analyzed by Opper
[16]. It can be broken down into the following main phases:
1. A vigilance phase, as the risk increases.
2. A "red alert" phase after a threshold has been crossed,
prompting a decision to evacuate.
3. An alert phase during which the media are used to
instruct the population to evacuate.
4. Preparation of the evacuation by the authorities and
the population (the pre-evacuation phase).
5. The evacuation itself: movement to safe areas
(horizontal and/or vertical evacuation).
6. Post-evacuation management during the crisis
(making zones safe, evacuee management, etc.).
7. The population's return to evacuated zones after the
crisis has subsided.
The real situation in the ground is monitored throughout the
event; if the scale of the disaster exceeds expectations, a
second evacuation phase (involving more resources or taking
place over a wider area) must be envisaged and the above-
mentioned phases 1 to 6 are repeated.
Even though most of the existing research work has focused
on phases 4 and 5 (modelling the distribution of the
population's departures from the affected areas), a decision
support methodology for creating and managing evacuation
plans (as presented in section 3) must take account of all the
various phases and parameters in this process.
2.4. A wide range of difficulties to be overcome
Before tackling this question from a scientific, technical and
modelling angle, it is important to identify the true
operational difficulties faced by safety services and local
decision makers when designing and implementing
evacuation plans. After having introduced the concept of a
timeline (which already suggests the existence of several
problems), we provide below a non-exhaustive list of ten
objectives and potential difficulties that must be taken into
account when planning and successfully implementing an
evacuation.
The first group relates to preparation by the authorities before
the crisis itself:
1. Identify and anticipate events in an uncertain context
(forecasting and scenario preparation).
2. Define and implement effective strategies by
leveraging various resources and ensuring that the
objectives are achieved on schedule.
3. Ensure the availability of the technical, human and
financial resources needed to implement the
evacuation plans (transport, accommodation, etc.).
4. Coordinate the various stakeholders and managers
involved in crisis management (state services and
representatives, local elected representatives, the
armed forces, etc.).
The second group of objectives focuses on successfully
managing the crisis itself:
5. Efficiently control the alert process and
communication with the population to be evacuated
and convince the population of the need to evacuate.
6. Forecast and deal with often problematic, rare
phenomena (severe weather, traffic, accidents, panic,
rumours, network disruption, disorganisation of
services and communication, etc.) and modify action
plans accordingly.
7. Control the flows of people and vehicles during
horizontal evacuation and avoid congestion and
accidents.
8. Evacuate dependent people in collaboration with the
public authorities (hospitals, retirement homes,
schools, etc.).
9. Reconcile technical, human and even political
considerations in the decision-making, communication
and crisis management processes.
10. Manage the post-evacuation phase in terms of making
zones safe, assisting the displaced persons and
returning to a normal situation.
3. Evacuation plan design support
Following on from the above-mentioned review of
international research work, an understanding of the
evacuation process as a whole and the identification of
operational and scientific bottlenecks, the ultimate aim of our
approach is to produce a methodological framework to help
safety managers build credible, effective evacuation plans.
The first step consists in identifying the criteria and data that
are involved in the process of implementing and managing an
evacuation plan (see section 3.1). At the same time, the goal
is to conceptualize and model the design process in a top-
down, hierarchical, progressive manner (see section 3.2).
Lastly, on the basis of this process model and the data flow,
the method is bolstered by technical files that help managers
to ask the right questions and orientate their responses
according to the available knowledge and decision trees
(work in progress - see section 4).
3.1. Decision-making criteria and levers for action
As we have seen above, the evacuation process is complex
and involves many different factors - all of which are
potentially significant insofar as forgetting just one can hinder
the execution of an evacuation plan or even cause it to fail. To
illustrate this point, one can consider the fuel shortage issue
reported by Litman [11] after Hurricane Rita in the USA in
2005. It is therefore vital to identify all such factors - both
positive and negative - and not lose sight of potential
blockage points, such as people's reluctance to evacuate their
home and network "domino effects" which can perturb or
even stop flows of people or equipment (people blocked on
the roads, preventing supplies from reaching confined people,
etc.).
Two complementary approaches have been used to identify
the criteria and data required for elaborating and managing
evacuation plans. The first approach is thematic and is similar
to the conceptual framework proposed by Radwan [17],
which interfaces with four major aspects: (1) risk forecasting,
(2) the population and its behaviour, (3) transport and traffic
and (4) the crisis management organisation. This division and
thematic analysis of the problem enable the initial
identification and classification of the knowledge and data
that have to be processed in a decision-making methodology.
However, this approach appears to be insufficient in terms of
a logical reasoning that can take account of the event timeline
mentioned in section 2.3. The second approach (which we
finally selected as a modelling framework and which
interfaces with the four thematic aspects - see Fig. 1) relates
to the evacuation plan design process rather than evacuation
per se. The design phase has been addressed in some research
work as one step in the overall process but has not previously
been developed systematically as a true reference model (see
section 3.2).
When analysing the set of decision-making criteria and data
that need to be taken into account, it became clear that we had
to distinguish between parameters that are totally independent
of the crisis managers control and that can be qualified as
constraints (notably the criteria related to the disaster itself or
the physical configuration of the affected areas), and those on
which the technical staff and managers can use as levers for
action. The latter can notably be used to develop various
scenarios and optimize evacuation plans in a sensitivity
analysis [6][19]. However, regardless of the nature and source
of the information, one must never lose sight of the fact that
this relates to prevention (crisis preparation) and the
anticipation of uncertain phenomena and events (forecasting
and pre-crisis management). The need to factor uncertainty
into the crisis management process is also being studied in the
AVENUES-GSU research group but the work will not be
presented here.
3.2. Modelling the evacuation plan design process.
The semi-formal language SADT and its diagrams (referred
to as "actigrams") were chosen to clearly model the
evacuation plan design process. This schematic representation
enabled us to break down the process into steps or successive
tasks at different levels of detail and represent the data flows
as input/outputs for each task (left and right arrows) and the
tools available for performing these tasks (down arrows).
Figure 1 represents an extract of the first level of detail
(diagram A0) for the general task "Design an evacuation plan
for an area threatened by flooding".
Figure 1: evacuation plan design process as specified in
SADT(extract: A3 to A6 tasks)
This model borrows from the OSIRIS methodology [14],
which is one of the first ever operational crisis preparation
and management tools to have integrated the characteristics of
the hazard (task A1), the area's vulnerability (A2) and action
plans (A3 to A6). A novel feature of the work presented here
relates to the fact that we have broken down the action plan
design process into four iterative, progressive steps:
A3: identification of strategic data other than those
related to the hazard and the vulnerability of the prime
issues (the population and buildings). These strategic
data (such as transport network capacities and the
number and nature of the evacuees) will influence the
following phase, A4.
A4: definition of the evacuation strategy, which must
specify the major choices and options in crisis
management (e.g. the choice of transportation modes,
vertical and/or horizontal evacuation, resource
availability, etc.) prior to phase A5.
A5: elaboration of the various evacuation scenarios
and specification of the implementation procedures,
while taking account of the constraints related to the
various hazard scenarios and the available levers for
action that will subsequently enable the transition to
phase A6 (plan refinement).
A6: optimization of the scenarios and action plans by
probing their sensitivity to the levers for action. This
phase can notably exploit digital simulation tools and
multiparameter methods for evaluating the relative
weightings and consequences of changes in certain
variables (e.g. the distribution of departures [1],
changes in traffic flow directions, itinerary choice,
etc.).
3.3. Development and testing of the method as part of the
European Union project THESEUS
This work is being performed at the Compiegne University of
Technology (UTC, in the AVENUES-GSU research group)
and the French Ministry of the Environment's CETMEF
technical centre, as part of the European Union FP7 project
THESEUS, which studies the impact of climate change on
European coasts and estuaries (erosion, flooding, ecological
impact, etc.) and strategies for adapting to and preventing the
occurrence of these phenomena. Specialists already know that
even by strengthening coastal protections and making
exposed inhabited areas less vulnerable, it is not possible to
totally mitigate the risk of flooding which, in general, is set to
rise with climate change.
The occurrence of a tsunami on the Atlantic coast cannot be
ruled out; in such an event, evacuation plans could also be
modified and implemented if sufficient advance warning is
available. However, even partial evacuation would save lives.
In this context, crisis management strategies for dealing with
an event and limiting its short-term impact can complement
long-term, structural measures such as the reinforcement of
coastal defences. The safety and evacuation plans discussed
here must be based on flood scenarios that in turn are founded
on probability hypotheses and combinations of
meteorological and oceanological parameters. Some recent,
extreme events (such the Klaus (1999) and Xynthia (2010)
storms, which resulted in relatively limited although still fatal
flooding) have helped scientists to refine their hypotheses for
future scenarios. Furthermore, computer hydraulic modelling
can provide a fairly detailed picture of flood scenarios that
cannot be simply extrapolated from historical data.
The method presented in this article is starting to be tested in
three of the THESEUS project's seven pilot sites in Europe:
the Bordeaux urban area in France, the city of Santander in
Spain and the P delta on Italy's Adriatic coast. Below, we
present some initial results for the Bordeaux site and
perspectives for the development of software-based support
tools.
4. Support software tools and initial results for industrial areas, densely populated residential areas and
the Bordeaux site sparsely populated residential areas) and evacuation capacity
(topological islands in terms of transport networks, evacuee
4.1. Software-based support tools for crisis preparation capacity, etc.). Each of these zones is assigned with a
and management particular evacuation plan based on vertical evacuation,
horizontal evacuation (e.g. Figure 2) or a combination of the
The data and knowledge necessary for large-scale two. The plan takes account of the inhabitants' behaviour
applications are too numerous and heterogeneous to be (estimated from the results of an Internet-based survey) and
efficiently processed manually both during the evacuation feedback from interviews with local stakeholders. The
plan development phase, and especially in the event of evacuation plan specifies the alert timeline, the levers for
deployment and real-time adjustment. action that can be used to facilitate execution of the
In parallel with the methodological work, we are developing evacuation, the arrival of evacuees in holding areas and
ways of assisting the user via a technical platform and a assistance measures for evacuees.
software-based toolbox by leveraging the existing OSIRIS
tool and the associated know-how. OSIRIS has been
developed by the Loire and Meuse river basin authorities, the
CETMEF and the UTC since 2003 and is used by many
localities in France to prepare and manage flood crises [12].
This platform (which also exists as a multirisk version [14])
enables the operator to describe a disaster's impact and
optimize emergency operations concerning local
infrastructure at risk and (most recently) the road network
[13]. However, once the methodology described here has
matured, OSIRIS will have to be updated and adapted to fit
the coastal context and address the specific question of
evacuations, which involve more complex processing steps
and data on the population, traffic and transport resources
than the current version does.
Our current approach to the development and testing of
software tools consists in integrating the data into the ArcGIS
geographical information system and then implementing
diagnostic rules as either direct queries in ArcGIS or via more
specialized tools that can be coupled to the latter, such as
traffic simulation and evacuation time evaluation tools [4][8].
From a general standpoint, these software tools must be able
to evaluate the sensitivity of the levers for action available to
crisis managers (traffic management, instructions given to the
population, etc.) and their impact on the choice of strategies
and determinant factors (such as the evacuation time or Figure 2: horizontal evacuation (exit routes and evacuee areas
resource sufficiency). are shown in red) in the event of flooding of the Bastide
quarter of Bordeaux.
4.2. Initial diagnoses with ArcGIS for the city of Bordeaux
5. Conclusions and perspectives
For the French pilot site (the Gironde estuary and the
Bordeaux urban area), we used the results of a two- The development of a support system for designing and
dimensional digital hydraulic model (TELEMAC). The latter managing mass evacuation plans in the event of flooding is
enabled us to generate a variety of scenario and flooding now entering an iterative testing and refinement process at
maps that either reproduce historical events (the 1999 and several pilot sites in Europe. The ultimate objective is to
2010 storms) or simulate events with more severe sea provide safety managers with a framework, a methodological
conditions (sea level + 1 metre, for example). These flood guide and a software-based toolbox that are simultaneously
scenarios were integrated into ArcGIS and cross-related to accurate, generic and adaptable to different geographical
standard French databases concerning the local population situations and national contexts in Europe and on other
(the INSEE database), buildings and the road network (the continents.
IGN TOPO database). Faced with the increasing risk faced by populated areas in
The initial results for application of this method consist in general and coastal cities in particular, this essential type of
zoning the endangered area; each defined zone is support system is increasingly being requested by local
homogeneous in terms of hazard intensity (water levels, stakeholders, and our work constitutes clear progress over the
duration of flooding, etc.), vulnerability (shopping areas, existing body of research.
In terms of software tools for evacuation planning, we believe
that the most valuable approaches for further development are
as follows:
the integration or development of a multiparameter
method for optimizing evacuation scenarios and levers
for action [6][19].
the implementation of heuristic rules for translation of
expert opinion and decision trees.
the development or integration of agent-based
behavioural models of the stakeholders and the
population [1].
coupling with traffic simulation and evacuation time
calculation tools [8].
the development of a simplified method for
calculating flood maps by using a digital ground
model (i.e. a non-hydraulic model that takes account
of constraint lines) and thus circumventing the lack of
a detailed hydraulic model for most sites).
In terms of the methodology, the processes mentioned in this
article still need to be better modelled until the system is
capable of helping to identifying the right responses and
solutions for each step in the process and each important
issue. In fact, a key feature of any methodology for tackling a
problem as complex as mass evacuation is not the delivery of
ready-made answers for various situations but rather the
ability to help decision-makers to understand the overall logic
behind the reasoning, to prompt them to ask the right
questions and only then to offer a range of technical support
tools. Lessons from recent disasters have shown that a lack of
preparation for rare events leads to serious errors of judgment
and management - errors that that add a feeling of
improvisation and powerlessness to an already difficult
situation.
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