HURRICANE CYCLES Dear “Mr. Dewey; As you nol doubt well know, meteorological cycles are very indefinite. However, evidence exists of hurricane cycles in New England and in Texas. An analysis by the Army Corps of Engineers on the basis of known tropical storms from 1829 to 1955 indicates a cycle of roughly 30 to 40 years in length in Texas. The incidence of Texas hurri- canes has alternated between one every 9 years during a period of minimum occurence and one every 1.4 years during the period of maximur frequency. In New England the cycles are approximately 45 years in length, i.e., from the mid-point of one period of maximum frequency to the next mid-point of maximum frequency, The last period of maximum frequency is believed to have ended at the end of 1955. Projecting back to the first known major hurricane in New England which was in 1635, all major hurricanes in this area have occurred during the cycle of maximum frequency. During recent years it would appear that minimum periods of hurricane incidence in Texas correspond roughly with maximum period of hurricane incidence in New Fng land. Very truly yours, Gordon E. Dunn Meteorologist in Charge United States Department of Commerce Weather Bureau Miami 32, FloridaThe Seasonal Cycles in Hurricanes BY JACK 4. DORLAND onal cycle ia topic humicanes in the Caribbean area could save you — and these close to yau—feom deaes, «4 tall atare- sirakt Peitaps, Bat vend on = then judge for you self, The facts in thin accicle are of particular value to those whe live—or wha vacation — Georgin, Alabama. Mississippi, Texas. of Lose isan. They ace likewise applicable ta thaee who ot vacation in Paerte Rice, Cabs, Jamaics ‘Virgin Islands, Leeward and Tindward [slands, Merice, amd elsewhere is the Caribbe: TROPICAL HURRICANE DEFINED A erapical husrie: rom in circular form, The winds in a tropical hurticane MUSE, by definitian, exceed 75 miles per hoor, are gh as (40 milew per hour, and may reach 250 miles per hour in the most ticlear Stamms, The highest #inds ate those which aus- round the immediate center, or eye, of the stern. ‘The eeater of & Butticane is a calm After che center passes, the winds begin again. suddenly aad with grear visleace, bet free the opposite diteetion. The average diameter af the calm cone abour fifteea miles; the average diameter of the eatite stare may be Bitty miles ot mote, A topical hurricane may peraint for an longas cereral weeks Sueh storms ate astmally accompanied by beary rains, high ware: doften by dangereas tides. Ay beet, all tropical hurricanes a to pewperty —and often ea Life ad Ii At worst, = topical hurricane is the most destrece ive of all storms —a veritable demon of devasta~ ion. Let Ivan Ray Tannekill, aqualle, then to farioos gales, and finally, in the tulip developed hurricane, the winds immediately center blow with indescribable te present us with an adequare Until the peesesr cearary, rhe occurence af 8 full-fledged tropical b t, almont Yeaslul destrection and appalling 1 of life, With the development of the art of modern Kommanication (telegraph, telephone, tadio, aad radar), it becane geogressively possible to alert commuaities to aa imminent hurricase. La Cpelen, Sep tetly. huadteds of thowsands of burn been saved, and untold boman agony asd injary aroided, as a direct result af precastionary meas ares made possible by advance aocice of the like- Ubeed of hurricase attack. THE HURRICANE SEASON husticame season in the Caribbean area extends roughly from the beginning sf Juse to the end of November. However, the quarteryeat con- ing the manths of August, Seprember, and (c+ igheracenunts om the average forneatly forr-filthe Of all hurric Perhaps mare susprising, oae- thied of all hurticases come, oa the avetage, ia ane month —Sepramber, The second most prominent huericane:month is etober; the third, August ‘The monthe of June, July, and November, takes hily under a fifth af all es. Only one per cent oc: car in May; the same for December. Practically Hicanes ever accur during any of the remai months (January, Pebraary, March, and Apeil). NEW LOOK AT MURRICANES eccurred to me that one possibility af fusther ing deaths sad injeriee fron tropical would be to find oat on what particular days of the year they are most likely to occur, A know! edge of such dates would then permit advance ed of otherwise potentially perilous a 8 af near the sea or shore, and ar flimay stroctutes, first step in ap praject was Te ceek the int of days of the year on which were known to have occurred, ‘The most complete and reliable Lint appeased to be that of Ivan Ray Tanachill, mentioned earlier le. La bis Bee ea! The University Press ofthe dates of orcetresce of all ksown Fest Indian hurricanes 44 throw, 1949. One of the earliest eaties ia the list scribed sech = stem expetienced by Colimbes m1dusing one of hia trips af expiocation co the New Porld, [brought Tanaebill's list up to dare with daca secered from she Weather Bazeae of the U.S, Ds partment of Commerce, As an additional © the World Almanac fe: [960 and dar L961 were con~ sulted and usilized Date thon the eadlice centusies of the Tanaehill sting geactally reperted only cae pacticular day forar moar, ewo of three particalar days) on which # bericane bad occured, Honerer, #4 the daca became mare ceceat, it was net unusual to fiad ‘iny by day records of single husricaaes, extending in some inatamces over weeks. One reason for the skimpiness of the earlier daza om individual storms iw thar che art of communicetions was then =i veloped, When a hurricane atuck a particular place, it was often segarded as an isolated hap- pening. For instance, when « hurricane struc small Caribbean island, ax it aftex did, ‘Thus ae historic Coomastchis wich the present, when barricance ave intentionally searched out by government a planes, The atozme are often spotted wishin a day ot a0 after they forn; they are rarked almoat bout oe aceasion fram thousands af miles oot at sen, In many instances an almost fantastically complete teeatd of a trspical burricane's lite re- sults = from its birth, often ia or aca! the doldeums (ard particulasly in a segioa of che Eastern Atlane tie, south of the Azores) to ite death out over by how Fi HURRICANE OCCURRANCE, 1494-1961 the Nocthers Atlantic, som: oreven three weeks la es as lose ax two. WHAT HURRICANE DATA REVE ED Fat the porposes of his parciculae amidy, 1 plotted the entice mana of data, 1454 through 198), ena single chart, Each day af the year, ftom the = Number 70 60] 50] an] 30) 20| m2 2 30 19 28 Jaly Augastam of the hurricane seases ia June to the rirtas it clearly perumys whew che powerful bericane completion of the season in late November, was epele peaks —and bow the cycle behaves before counted separately. Fer a desmatie pietre of the and after it peaks, Relectiag again to Figere pattem which sexalted, please refer wo Figare 1 you will nate that the cycle faicty steeply enceedingly ateong and e- Brom Wie of the manth, | eyele exists, Ir then drops off slewly until Joly, fallew- ge vhich tt beglas a denmatic and stendy rise The importance of che present study im chet frequency, with scarcely = paume watil it reaches penber of times hurricanes a0 ladies have bees recorded on the vary throughout the hurricane seaman, The ia Seprember 12. Seve ecard, hunicaaea bare been Indies on September 12. 10 Cyelen, 10 40 10 x Sepsembex ‘October September 19624 vetitable climax of activity on ane particular day in mid-Seprember, The day - September 12. The eecords of mankiad from |494 to the present atest thar the chances of» tropical burricane's sccusting oa September 12 in aay year age greater thas on any other day of the yr: During the 468 years covered by the dara, s total of 73 separa ce distinct erepleal heen it piogtens of September 12. Thus, the chamces of a ctopical Autticane's pecorting in the Caribhesn area thie year on Sep tember 12, of meat year on September 12, er any yest on September 12, are greater Gan ox any other day in the pear. This is « daager nene of us shoeld cesainly choose te face needlessly. The subsidence of the fregeeacy carer, from September 12 oa Figure 1, is sot less dramatic than che upsurge was earlier, With scarcely am i mid-October, the curve ugly regelar rare, ber, whee it reverses fot & lastep near the ead a ber, after which it falle to eelative anthing- as the herticane seusoa ends. ‘ODDS ON HURRICANES The simple chart (Figute 1), ia whieh so much ef human misery is condensed, represents abou 4,790 individual days on which hurticanes occurred Suriag che last 468 years, In other wards, there have been aa average of tea burricane-days per year in the Caribbean area, over the laxt fer or e centuri inte their moaths of occurence, we can thes read the relative Likelihood of « hur the prak moath of Sepeen ber, aa against its occurring in any orker santh af the herricane season, Table | gives thene moataly data, and she approximate adds as well, Yow will neve from Table 1 thas, if-we are im the Caribbean urea dering September, che adda Far ate Se 7 thar Il be more Lileely wo be ex= posed to a hrsicane thea, chan daring October, Hf we ate there dusiag Septenber, che odds are 9 te $ that we will be mare Ekely to be expored to a Berricane then, than during Augast. There are six times as many chances of being exposed t0 Ructicace in September, as in November, There fe seven tines us aay chaaces of being expased “September, ther June or July, in either May or December, the chaaces of being his by a urricane in the Cazibbean are practically nil, a3 compared with Seprenber. TABLE ‘ODDS ON OCCURRENCE GF TROPICAL HURRICANES IN SEPTEMBER sus Occurence in Other Meaths of the Husticaae Season) v Based oa daca trom 1404 = 1961 Odds tor Occurrence Number of De in September so waich Hurri- (Wersus Occurveace Mooth canes Qeeerred in ther Month} Mar 10 re Jus Me Teo jul 25 Trot Aug 107s 905 Sep sa - Oct 14 soot Now 290 Grol Dec %0 feet U, despite all of the above, September is your shoice fer a Caribbean vacation = a1 if you aow i the Caribbeas area and doa'r intend te ist becaume Daslamd is srving to scare you try ta remain aware of che much greater rinks vos face from harticanes during Seprember, and thereabouts. And, if you da deel curiously impelled to plan an ocean trip far about that tine, please don’t raably inaiat on Sepeember i