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TH TRNG
CHNG
KHON
TS.NGUYN TH BCH LOAN
Kh TC
Khoa TC-NH
NH
NI DUNG MN HC
Chng 1:Th trng ti chnh
Chng 2:Th trng chng khan
Chng 3: Chng khan v giao dch
chng khan
Chng 4:nh gi chng khan
Chng 5:Phn tch chng khan
Chng 6: Qu u t chng khan
1
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2
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3
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4
2/17/2011
TT Vn
ngn hn
TT Hi oi TT Lin NH
Th trng vn
5
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Th trng tin t
Th trng vn
6
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Th trng cng c n
Th trng cng c vn
Th trng cng c phi sinh
Th trng s cp
Th trng th cp
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8
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9
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10
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12
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Nh pht hnh
Nh u
t (c nhn v t chc)
Nh mi gii v kinh doanh chng khon
Cc t chc h tr th trng
13
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M hnh t chc
C cu
t chc
14
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C cu t chc ca SGDCK:
HQT
BG
BP.
BP. BP. BP. Qun l BP. T.chc
T.Chnh
Q. l Qun l T.ton thnh chc nng IT
K ton T.hp
giao dch Nim yt b tr vin khc
Ti mt s quc gia
Ti Vit nam
15
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16
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17
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18
2/17/2011
Ngha v ca c ng ph thng
19
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20
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BKS
HQT
TG
P.TG P.TG
21
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22
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23
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c im ca Chng khon
Tnh gi tr
Tnh sinh li
Tnh thanh khon
Tnh ri ro
24
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3.2.2 C phiu
25
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3.2.2.2 c im ca c phiu
L mt ti sn
Thi hn ca c phiu
gn
lin
vi thi
hn hot ng ca cng ty pht hnh ra
n
C li tc thay i
Th hin quyn s hu i vi cng ty
C th chuyn nhng
26
2/17/2011
C phiu thng
Khi nim: L loi loi chng khon xc nhn
quyn v li ch hp php c ng thng i vi
mt phn vn ca cng ty c phn
phn.
c trng:
C phiu thng l mt ti sn thc s
C mnh gi
L mt loi chng khon v thi hn
C tc nhn c t c phiu thng khng c nh
Gi c phiu thng xuyn bin ng do nhiu nhn t
27
2/17/2011
C phiu u i
Khi nim:
C
phiu
u i l loi c
phiu
m ngi
s hu n c mt s quyn u tin hn
so vi c ng thng nhng li b hn
ch mt s quyn li khc.
28
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Cc loi c phiu u i
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30
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Quyn li ca tri ch
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Khi nim
c im
Cch tnh gi tr quyn mua c phn
33
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Khi nim
c im
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c im ca chng quyn
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3.2.4.3 Hp ng k hn (Forward
contract)
Khi nim: L mt tha thun trong
mt
t ngi
i mua v
mt
t ngi
i b
bn chp
h
thun thc hin mt giao dch hng ha
vi khi lng xc nh, ti mt thi im
xc nh trong tng lai vi mt mc gi
c n nh vo ngy hm nay.
Khc bit vi hp ng giao ngay: Thi
im thc hin giao hng v thanh ton.
Khi nim
Ti khon k qu
36
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Hp ng tng lai l hp ng k hn
c chun
h hha v
lloii ti sn
c s
mua
bn, s lng cc n v ti sn c s
mua bn, th thc thanh ton, v k hn
giao dch. Hp ng k hn khng c
chun ha, cc chi tit l do hai bn m
phn v tho thun c th.
37
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Khi nim
c im
Cc dng H quyn chn
Hp ng quyn chn l mt hp ng
c k kt gia
i mt
t b
bn l ngi
i k
pht v mt bn l ngi mua hp ng,
trong cho php ngi mua hp ng
c quyn mua hoc bn cho ngi k
pht hp ng mt s lng chng khon
nht nh vi mt mc gi c nht nh v
trong mt thi hn quy nh ca tng lai.
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c im H quyn chn
39
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Ngi bn call
Ngi mua call option
option
Nhn nh Gi CK s tng Gi CK s gim
Mc tiu Khi g
gi th trng
g >gi
g k kt Kim thm tin bng
g
thc hin quyn c CK ph quyn chn do
bn ra th trng vi gi cao ngi mua tr
hn nhm kim li nhun
Ri ro Mc ri ro gii hn trong Gi th trng tng,
phm vi ph quyn chn nu buc phi c s
gi khng
g g tngg CK k kt thc
hin H
Li nhun Li nhun khng gii hn Gii hn bi ph
quyn chn
Thua l Gii hn bi ph quyn chn Thua l khng gii
hn khi gi CK tng.
40
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Hp ng quyn chn bn
Cho php ngi mua hp ng c quyn bn
mt s lng chng khon nht nh vi gi c
nht nh, trong mt thi hn quy nh ca tng
lai.
Ngi mua hp ng phi tr cho ngi bn hp
ng mt khon ph gi l ph chn bn (Put
premium).
Sau khi thanh ton gi quyn la chn, bt k lc
no trong thi gian hiu lc ca hp ng, ngi
mua quyn chn bn c quyn yu cu ngi
bn quyn phi mua ca mnh mt khi lng
chng khon c quy nh trong hp ng vi
gi tha thun trc, hoc hy b quyn la
chn v chp nhn thit hi khon ph tr.
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42
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45
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Khp lnh nh k
46
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Tng Tng
KL KL
Lnh KL mua Gi KL bn Lnh
mua bn
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Mua Bn
Gi
Lnh KL mua Thi Thi KL bn Lnh
gian gian
001 200 9h05 20
002 500 9h15 20.2
003 400 9h25 20.4 9h45 600 006
20.5 9h01 1000 005
20.6 9h 300 004
48
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49
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Ni dung Lnh
Ni dung Lnh
50
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u tin
ti v gi:
i u tin
ti cho
h l
lnh
h c
gi
i
mua cao v lnh c gi bn thp
u tin v thi gian: cc lnh c cng
mc gi th lnh no a ra trc s
c u tin thc hin trc
u tin v
khi lng: Cc lnh c cng
mc gi v thi gian th lnh no c khi
lng ln hn s c thc hin trc.
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52
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HOSE HNX
53
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n L l: 1 9 C phiu, L l: 1 99 c phiu
v chng ch qu L chn: 100 c phiu.
giao L chn: 10 v bi s ca L ln: khng quy nh
dch 10 Cp, chng ch qu Tri phiu: L chn i vi
L ln: 20.000 c phiu, giao dch khp lnh:100 TP
chng ch qu Kh quy nh
Khng h n v giao
i
Tri phiu: khng quy nh dch i vi giao dch tho
thun tri phiu. Khi lng
giao dch ti thiu:1000 tri
phiu (hay 100 triu ng
tnh theo mnh gi).
Khi - GD kh
khp lnh:
l h t 10 n
Kh quy nh.
Khng h
lng 19.990 CP,CCQ(l chn). Khi lng giao dch ti
giao -GD tha thun: 20.000 thiu i vi giao dch tha
dch cp, CCQ(l ln), khng thun l 5000 c phiu
quy nh i vi tri phiu.
54
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55
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Th tt u Gi Thi gian
i Khi Gi Thi gian
i
tin thc lng
hin lnh
56
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57
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58
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59
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3.3.4.2 Mc ch nim yt
Nim yt ln u
Nim yt
b sung
Nim yt li
Thay i nim yt (tch, gp CP)
Hy b nim yt
60
2/17/2011
Tiu chun
nh lng
Qui m vn
Thi gian hot ng
Kh nng sinh li
T l n
C cu c ng
61
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62
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Khi nim
iu
kin ng k hot ng lu k chng
khon
Ni dung ng k CK
Cc loi CK ng k
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iu kin ng k hot ng lu k
chng khon:
i vi NHTM:
C ggiyy php
p p thnh lp
p v hot
ng
g ti
VN
N qu hn khng qu 5% tng d n, c li
trong nm gn nht
C a im, trang thit b phc v hot ng
ng k, lu k, thanh ton cc GD CK
i vi cng ty CK:
C giy php thnh lp v hot ng thc hin
nghip v MG hoc t doanh CK
C a im, trang thit b phc v hot ng
ng k, lu k, thanh ton cc GD Ck
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2/17/2011
Ni dung ng k CK:
ng k CK mi pht hnh
Qun l s ng k ngi s hu CK
Qun l s
ng k CK chuyn nhng,
s ng k Ck chuyn nhng cm c
Lp danh sch ngi s hu CK
chun b HC hng nm
hin
Thc cc cngg vic
lin quan
q n
thanh ton c tc
Thc hin cc nghip v lin quan n
tng vn ca Cty pht hnh
Cc loi CK ng k:
70
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Khi nim lu k
T
chc h thng
lu k
Quy trnh v nguyn tc lu k
71
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T chc h thng lu k:
Trung tm Lu k CK
Thnh vin Lu k
Nh u t
Trung tm Lu k CK:
72
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Thnh vin Lu k:
Thnh vin ca TT Lu k CK l thnh
vin lu k v thnh vin m ti khon
trc tip ti trung tm Lu k CK
Thnh vin lu k gm: Cty CK, NHTM
p ng iu kin do UBCK quy nh
Thnh vin m TK gm: NHNN, Kho bc
NN, T.cty u t v KD vn NN, cc t
chc tn dng, bo him
theo quy nh
ca TT Lu k.
Gm 2 cp:
Khch hng lu k CK ti thnh vin lu
k
Thnh vin lu k ti lu k CK ca khch
hng ti TT lu k.
73
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Thnh vin lu k ti lu k CK ca
khch hng ti TT lu k.
74
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75
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77
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Ch s gi CK l ch bo gi c phiu phn
h xu h
nh hng
pht ht ttrin
i ca
th ttrng
c
phiu, th hin xu hng thay i ca gi
c phiu v tnh hnh giao dch trn th
trng.
Ch s gi chng khon l bnh qun gi
c phiu ti mt ngy nht nh so vi
ngy gc.
78
2/17/2011
Pi
Bnh qun s =
hc
N
Trong :
Pi: th gi ca c phiu i
N: S loi c phiu tham gia tnh ch s
Pi Qi
Bnh qun c = -------------
g s
trng Qi
79
2/17/2011
Pit
It = -------- x Io
Pio
Trong
g : It: Ch s g
gi bnh q
qun g
gin n k t
Io: Ch s gi bnh qun gin n k
gc tnh ch s.
Pio: Gi CK i k gc tnh ch s
Pit: Gi CK i vo k t
80
2/17/2011
Ch s tng hp
Tng gi tr th
ttrng
k hin
hi
hnh
Ch s tng
hp = ------------------------- x 100
Tng gi tr th
trng k c s
Qio x Pit
It = --------------- x Io
Qio x Pio
81
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Qit x Pit
It = --------------- x Io
Qit x Pio
82
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Qit x Pit
It = ---------------- x 100
Qio x Pio
83
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$100 FV ?
FV=?
84
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Nguyn tc
Khi nim
Cng thc tnh gi tr tng lai ca mt s
tin hin ti
Cng thc tnh gi tr tng lai ca mt
chui tin u
Nguyn tc
85
2/17/2011
FV = PV x (1 + r1 )(1 + r2 )....(1 + rn )
Nu li sut khng i qua cc nm:
FV = PV x (1 + r )n
86
2/17/2011
4
FV= 10.000.000 x (1+ 0,12) = 15.735.200
87
2/17/2011
Bi tp:
1- Nu gi 50 triu ng vo NH trong 5
nm,
li sutt 9,5%/nm
9 5%/ th sau 5 nm
s
tin nhn c l bao nhiu?
2- Nu ti b ton b s tin100.000.000
ng tit kim c mua tri phiu
chnh ph k hn 3 nm, loi li sut gp,
11% nm v gi tri phiu n khi o
hn th ti s nhn c bao nhiu tin?
FVA = C x
(1 + r )n 1
r
88
2/17/2011
4.1.3. Gi tr hin ti
Khi nim
Gi tr hin ti ca mt khon tin trong
tng lai
Gi tr hin ti ca chui tin u
Gi tr hin ti ca
chui
tin
t bt
ng
89
2/17/2011
F
PV =
(1 + r )n
1 (1 + r ) n
PV = C
r
90
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n
Ct
PV =
t =1 (1 + r )t
91
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P: Gi c nh ca tri phiu
n: S k tr li ca tri phiu
Cn : Tin li tri phiu
nhn c trong k th n
r: li sut d tnh ca nh u t
M: mnh gi tri phiu
92
2/17/2011
C1 = C2 = C3 = ..... = Cn
n
C M
P= +
t =1 (1 + r )t (1 + r )n
1 (1 + r ) n
+ M (1 + r )
n
P = C
r
M
P=
(1 + r )n
93
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94
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C
CY =
P
Nu gi tri phiu hin hnh bng mnh gi tri phiu:
li sut hin hnh bng li sut danh ngha
Nu gi tri phiu hin hnh ln hn (hoc nh hn)
mnh gi: li sut hin hnh nh hn(hoc ln hn)
mnh gi
Li sut o hn (YTM)
M P
C+
y = YTM = n
M + 2P
3
95
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Mi quan h Gi Li sut
96
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Gi
Li sut
97
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98
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li (convexity)
li
n
t (t + 1)C n(n + 1)M 1
li = +
t =1 (1 + y )t + 2 (1 + y )n+ 2 P
Thay i gi gn vi li c tnh nh sau:
2
%thay i gi=1/2 li x (thay i li sut)
99
2/17/2011
li
Li sut
4.3 nh gi c phiu
100
2/17/2011
Dt
P0 =
t =1 (1 + r )
t
n
Dt Pn
P0 = +
t =1 (1 + r )n
(1 + r )n
101
2/17/2011
Gi nh c tc tng u mi nm g%
D1
P0 =
(r g )
iu kin: g<r
n
Dt Pn
Po = +
t =1 (1 + r ) (1 + r )
t n
Dn +1
Pn =
(r g )
102
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103
2/17/2011
nh gi theo h s P/E
104
2/17/2011
P P0
G=
n +1
Trong :
G: gi quyn mua c phiu
P: gi th trng ca c phiu
Po: Gi bn u i c phiu mi
n: t l phn phi c phiu mi
105
2/17/2011
0 K Gi th
trng M
-K
0 K Gi th
trng
M
106
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Po: gi CK c s ti thi im k kt
HTL
Fo: gi HTL vo thi im k kt
r: Li sut th trng
d: t l li thu c t vic u t vo
HTL
Pt: gi CK c s vo thi im o hn
HTL
Ft: gi HTL vo thi im t
Gi HTL vo thi im t:
Ft = Pt (1 + r d )
t
107
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K S
0
K+P
-P
108
2/17/2011
P
K+P
S
0 K
St K nu St K
=0 nu St K
i vi quyn chn kiu M:
= max(St K;0)
109
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K-P
K-P
0 K S
-P
P
0 K-P
K S
-K +P
110
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111
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112
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Kinh t v m
trong nc v quc t
Ngnh
DN
Phn tch t di ln
Kinh t v m
trong nc v quc t
Ngnh
DN
113
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114
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115
2/17/2011
Phn tch c bn
Phn tch k thut
116
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Bo co ti chnh ca cng ty
Cc ch s
ti chnh
117
2/17/2011
Bo co ti chnh ca cng ty
Bng cn i k ton
Bo co kt
qu hot ng SXKD
Bo co lu chuyn tin t
Cc ch s ti chnh
118
2/17/2011
Ti sn lu ng
T
s ti sn lu ng
g = ---------------------------------
Tng n ngn hn
Ti sn lu ng hng tn kho
Ch s ti sn nhy cm = -----------------------------------------
Tng n ngn hn
T s tin mt:
Tin mt
Ti t + Chng
Ch khon kh kh nhng h
T s tin mt = ------------------------------------------------------
N ngn hn
119
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T s n:
Tng n
T s n = ---------------------
Tng ti sn
Th nhp
Thu h rng (Li (L i nhun
h
sau thu)
T sut li nhun rng = -----------------------------------
Doanh thu thun
120
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121
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Doanh thu
T s vng quay TSC = ---------------------
TSC thun
T s vng quay tng ti sn:
Doanh thu
T s vng quay tng ti sn = ---------------------
Tng ti sn
Li
nhun rng g - C tc u i
EPS = -----------------------------------------------
S c phn thng ang lu hnh
Gi th trng
P/E = ------------------------------------
Thu nhp ca mi c phiu
122
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C tc
D/E = --------------------------
Thu nhp ca mi c phiu
C tc trn th gi ( D/P )
C tc
D/P = ---------------------------
Gi th trng hin thi
T s gi th trng/ gi tr s sch:
Gi tr th trng mi CP
T s gi th trng/Gi tr s sch = ---------------------------------
Gi tr s sch mi CP
123
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124
2/17/2011
Cc gi nh c bn ca PTKT
Cc loi biu
Xu th,
ng xu th,
Knh
Mc hon li, Khung giao dch, H tr v
Khng c
Cc hnh mu k thut (c thm)
125
2/17/2011
Cc loi biu
126
2/17/2011
Gi ng
Gi m
ca
ca
Gi ng
ca Gi m
ca
Gi thp nht
127
2/17/2011
Biu dng ng
Gi m ca
Gi gim
Gi tng
Gi ng ca
128
2/17/2011
Xu th
X th gm
Xu c xu th gi
i t
tng v
xu th
gi gim. Xu th gi tng gm lin tip
nhng nh gi cao dn v y gi cao
dn (nh trc cao hn nh sau v y
trc cao hn y sau)
ng xu th: ng xu th gi tng l
ng ni cc im y cao dn ln v
ng xu th gim l ng ni cc nh
thp dn
dn.
Knh
Knh l khong dao ng ca gi, nu gi
dao ng trong mt di th di gi l
knh. Di dao ng c xc nh bi
hai ng bin l ng xu th v ng
knh (channel line), hai ng ny song
song vi nhau.
129
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130
2/17/2011
H tr v khng c
131
2/17/2011
Mt s nguyn l cn bn ca L thuyt
Dow
Ch s bnh qun th trng phn nh tt c
Ba xu th ca th trng: xu th cp 1, cp 2, xu
th nh
Bull Market & Bear Market
Cc ng ch s bnh qun ca th trng phi
cng xc nhn xu th ca th trng
Khi lng giao dch p dng km vi xu th th
trng.
ng
ng ngang c th thathay th cho cc xu th cp 2
2.
Ch s dng mc gi ng ca nghin cu.
Mt xu th cn c gi nh rng vn ang tip
tc cho n khi c mt du hiu thc s v s o
chiu ca xu th c xc nh
132
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Chng 6: Qu u t
6.1 Khi nim Qu u t
6.2 Phn loi Qu u
t
6.3 Hat ng ca Qu u t
6.4 nh gi hiu qu Qu u t
Khi nim
Li ch
Cc bn tham gia
133
2/17/2011
Khi nim
Qu u t l mt t chc u t chuyn
nghip,
hi tp
t hp
h cc khkhon
u
tt c
nhn
h
thnh khon vn ln u t vo danh
mc u t c xc lp theo chin lc
v chnh sch u t cu qu
Li ch ca vic u t qua qu
i vi nh u t:
a dng ha danh mc u t, gim thiu
ri ro
Qun l u t chuyn nghip
Tit kim chi ph giao dch
134
2/17/2011
Li ch ca vic u t qua qu
Cc bn tham gia Qu u t
Cng ty qun l qu
Ngn hng gim st
Ngi u t
135
2/17/2011
Cng ty qun l qu
Cng ty qun l qu thc hin vic qun l qu
u t CK
Cty qun l qu c thnh lp theo giy php
h t
hot ng ddo UBCKNN cp v
c ti chc
h
di hnh thc cty c phn hoc TNHH vi vn
php nh ti thiu l 25 t ng.
Trong qu trnh hot ng, cty qun l qu c th
thnh lp v qun l ng thi nhiu qu u t.
Cty qun l qu c thc hin cc nghip v
sau:
Qun l qu u t (huy ng, ql vn v
t.sn, q.l DMT)
T vn u t v t vn ti chnh
Cc dch v phn tch h tr u t
136
2/17/2011
Ngi u t
Quyn ca nh u t:
Hng li t hot ng u t ca qu u t CK tng
ng vi t l vn gp
Hng cc li ch v ti sn dc chia hp php t vic
thanh l ti sn qu u t CK
Yu cu cty qun l qu hoc NH gim st mua li chng
ch qu m
Khi kin cty qun l qu, NH gim st hoc t chc lin
quan vi phm quyn v li ch hp php ca mnh
Thc hin quyn ca mnh thng qua i hi nh u t
Chuyn nhng chng ch qu theo quy nh ti iu l
qu u t CK
Cc quyn khc qui nh ti iu l qu u t CK
Ngi u t
Ngha v ca nh u t:
Chp
Ch hhnh
h quyt
t
nh
h ca
ii hi nh
h
u tt
Thanh ton tin mua chng ch qu
cc ngha v khc theo qui nh ti iu l qu
u t
137
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138
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Cn c vo ngun vn huy ng
Qu i chng Qu thnh vin
Huy ng vn
bng
cch Huy ng vn bng
cch
pht hnh rng ri ra cng pht hnh ring l cho
chng mt s nhm nh cc
nh u t
Ngi u t nh, t am Nh u t ln, thng
hiu v TTCK l cc nh ch ti chnh
hoc tp on kinh t
ln
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6.3 Hat ng ca Qu u t
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nh gi pht hnh
Gi tr ti sn rng ca Qu (NAV)
Gi tr chng ch qu
Ph bn chng ch qu
Gi cho bn chng ch qu
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Gi tr ti sn rng ca Qu (NAV)
Gi tr chng ch qu
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Ph bn chng ch qu
POP-NAV
Ph
= x 100%
bn POP
Gi cho bn chng ch qu
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6.3.2 Hot ng u t
Ph v chi ph ca Qu u t
Quy trnh u
t
Ri ro v li nhun c tnh ca danh
mc u t
Ph v chi ph ca Qu u t
Ph m nh u t tr khi bt u tham
gia
i v khi rt
t ti
tin khi qu
Chi ph trc tip ln qu
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Ph m nh u t tr khi bt u tham
gia v khi rt tin khi qu
Ph pht hnh
Ph hon tin
Ph qun l hng nm
Thng khuyn khch
Chi ph ca Ban i din Qu
Ph gim st, lu k
ph dch v cho nh u t
Ph kim ton
Ph nh gi
Ph vay
Ph khc (thnh lp,php l,mi gii.v.v)
Thu
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Quy trnh u t
Xc nh mc tiu, chin lc u t
Xy dng c cu DMT ph hp vi mc
tiu, chin lc
Theo di, nghin cu th trng
iu chnh danh mc u t
146