1395 " $" !

"#

/ 0 "1, 2 "# (SA) ) * +, "-! .

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!"# $ % % & -1
'# !"# '#$ % % & -2

emadbakouchi@yahoo.com

34
,*- 150 ' ( )* 1700 ! "#
.*/ 0 1 2 !)3 4- 56 .*/ 7 8"- 1 .5 : ;< - .= >
Ghodrati et al 2010 0Campbell 1997 <: - = 2 ( SA) @*3 A *B* **( .5 : C kijko (2000) ?
J"- . K " L =/ M*,N . 5 : ; < - 0 : : 7*- 0/6 0/4 7* 7 F = 5/ ? -
.5 : T 50 % 2 %10 : "L A 4 :1 P QC R O # SEISRISK III (1987) .; O

. 9.1# (SA) ( ) * +, -. " / 0 12 3 45 : /$ 7

6 .1

"BW * : X U = * 81 = * =/ C V:
Q :L * ? *( : "L 8 N . =/ M*,N 6 : 5 :*@ "! K "( - *( Q 2:
* QZ Q 86 * # "L B - . =/ N J P 7,Y M*,N .: * ' 6 78
C ? .: * 2 \/ - 5>1 *< 4*"] : C ; 8 . =/ M*,N 6 . < [)/ 0:
B: " L ? (a (=6 ? (A C # ? (_ : " : 4*\ Q * =/
* .- ? .5 * C 8 -5 * =/ C # ?
c ; .: b< * : ; * * : C * 81 "L 5 .*/ : - **( "* \ b<
* : .5 - # * :/ )86 - ; : /d@ QZ * -5 ? *
M\< K "( - "BW (=6 ? . -: /M ,86 : O # : :1 Z 1 M6 <.
8 1 *B* b< * *L J* Z e8 QC ( 0 @ 3 : \ 81Q M\< (;
5*(=6 O:! )( < / :( "BW O X K"L ? . @ U / *
2 =/ . e f / MN J . 2 =/ "- *" =/ M*,N . 5 / 28 N Q _,
K " L 2 ] : 8 (=6 . Q Z Q 0 : - = (=6 2 ] 0: U: ] B . J - =
[1].

8 +9 : 6 ,; < 6 6= "# 2 " - 1-1

h* / 5 ;< 6 *C 8 >C R : : O# , g . h* 0 : -i 2 * N /
@*3 A Z C :N 2K B- Q Z" MZ ; P USGS Q 1997 .: : O # j B > : W ,N
B- Peruzza et al( 1998) :, * B- Dowrick et al (1998) P : .: - T 5/ Z =/ _*3
2( = (1381) ' B/ Q 6C .* Q .5; .* - B- Adams & halchuk(2003) J* C *L
 1395 " $" !"#

0 0 - > 046 0 Q -0Q : *U Q > Q Z" :6 - P :( 2 ( = : O# Q > >

[2]. 5; < 2 [ .... B -

< 6 6= ; -2-1

:: n 2 * N 2( = T : -5 ; <2 [ B: "L ? . =/ M*,N 0 F L

.5 : f]/ = .*/ / * .*/ J* Z . 2 *[ ]/ P (2)
.5 : T = . 0 : ; ( 5* (; M*\ (; M\< *,- 0 M];
MZ 8 N * 5B< ;< 6 M*,N = ,*- 150 ' ( \< .*/ 0O
.5 ; <2 [.= = .*/ C * o" . : 4* "
: 8 N ;( B: "L ? . =/ M*,N A <: - P 0 = < P 1 0O >W
.5 : T . =/ p= : 8 N .= > (SA) @*3 A 4" .- :1 7 Y QC R 5
5 : T *< #* 7 Y - 4 :* UL) M 6 4> R : O# M*,N 1 /C 5"\6 5 >

?0 60 @" -3-1

FL L .= Q > 0 B- " 2 "*\ .5 . = Q > .- > .5 Q .- Q >@[ Q > Z .=

C: / . 0 0 6 3 0q- - > Q \ R C: / 0 6 3 0. = > >W 0 . .-
" > *6 51 1 33 05 @ 420239 1390 .= Q > 5*("1 0Q C .- " .:
Q -5 Q .- > 0. = Q > .- . 6r < "* 58\ 6 3 *6 91 1 51
'@ ,*- 3397 Q > 5( . 6Q Y " q- - Q \ - Q >@[ Q - * Q >@[
[1].5 s - :( AC . = .5 1600 .= >

A B B"? .2

v*6 U v* N . < A \N B- (; v3 /Q * Q 1 M\< 1 M* .= =

[1].5 : C :1 QC :( C "1 ,*- 200 ' ( "0 = 2 =/

C, / + 200 = >, ? / @ 3 &: (1);%$<

M\< O _
Q - M\< 1
Q C M\< 2
M\< 3
*; M\< 4
Q * <- w o- M\< 5
; M\< 6
C :"N M\< 7
M\< 8
Q >@[ M\< 9
C > M\< 10
]"6 M\< 11
 1395 " $" !"#

.5 : Cn 3 \< (; M\< / MZ

E ) %$4 ? / @ 3 & -"F#: (1) 3D,

2/ B"? -1-2

150 ' ( : . , - 5\* U : .5 = QC .*/ 5*(F B > b< . o

.5 ; < 6 @ *> * M .= > ,*-

9 2 ?/?B -1-1-2

- : a 05 : * . < . 0 QC 2 @, 7 Q .* QC - 7-h = .
[4]: 5 n QC :(
B 5 /9 <. )* 1755 * -
B 6 /2 <. )* 1778 * -
B 6 /4 <. )* 1844 * -

C+ 2 ?/?B -2-1-2

:( 1964 - *# g C < M )* 1900 :( : * M .

[3].5 : *> . :> . ,," * B y 5 * M - 5\* . 0: <O
 1395 " $" !"#

?/?B 2 D /# -3-1-2
QC \ 5\* Ms ' " : C "1 < . Z M* .5 : @ 28 N Ms N= a <. v* N
[8].5 : @ P :1 U . - M :8 N= a <.
Ms= 1.21mb-1.29 ( 1) =
.5 N= a < . Ms "#L a < . mb = -

Ms,Ml,Mw & 9 -1 : (2) , ;%$<

Ms Mw Ml
3.6 4.5 4.3
4.6 5.2 5.3
5.6 5.8 5.8
6.6 6.6 6.3
7.3 7.3 6.8

/0 = 2/ B"? 2 "+ .3

= : . , - 5\* *> q .: = J .*/ ,[ ] B Mmax 0 .*/

O J"- * o" 2 [ Z # ? :Z * : ) z@L 5>1 q * VbL
.5 : @ [9]V .;

2/ B"? 2 "+ E"# -1-3

@ kijko [10] ? 2 !)3 5*(=6 O:! * o" 2 !)3 4- 56 8"- 1 .*/ C

kijko .; O M[ L R . " U < :1 2 [ _, . <. =/ Q ? .5 :
.5 : T :1 (2000)

D 9H I # J +#: (3) , ;%$<

Results
beta 1.89 +- .01 (b = .82 +- .01)
Lambda .83 +- .21 (for Mmin = 3.00)
Mmax 6.90 +- .58 (for SIG(Xmax) = .30)
 1395 " $" !"#

D K% - ; . $2 $>5 % # : (2) , 3D,

?/?B "0 G = .4

Q C5 : q ? .5 : @ . =/ K " L M*,N ? @*3 A **( ( =

:: 81 8 N 7 <: - = j B * o" n 3 :N "BW Q " : .*/
.4 / (SA) @*3 A :1 > L 3 *

D ! 0# -1-4
\ <: - = A .5 / =/ M*,N R " ! 5*, 6 W 5*" 7 <: - = A
. " 1 ... M\< - 0 { / ' 0 M\< *\< N 0 ,[ ; :N 0 < . :N 0 < . :L ' ,"1 *\ 2 Z
f/ * :[ J 2 @ ' 6 " L _, A *B* * 5 :* Q B - " @*3 A :1
_, :[ 5 * 50 3 %10 %2 ' 6 "L 8 .* C | .: 0j B 5B< J
? - : O # Ghodrati et al 2010 [12] Campbell 1997 [11] <: - P @ ( * X 2 1 00/5 00/3 00/1)
4 02 @ 7 F f ] / * o" <: - = @ M* . 5 : @ 0/6 0/4 7 F = 5/
.5 n 3 :N 2 ] B 1 = -

?/?B H +. "0 G = -2-4

.; O @ * o" Z*- ? :C5 : .*/ @ "BW \: ?
( - 50 :[ 10 2 : "L ; @*3 A * o" \} ; A w- :L [13] seisriskIII
.5 : C5 : .= > [5] 1 Q "/ \> * C [6]2800 *Cv = 2475 475 5B<
.5 : < T 2 1 =/ p= * X 2 10 0/50 0/30 0/1 @*3 A :1

9.1# C, / F1. N2 K% (+ ( ) * +, M $ : (4) , ;%$<

T=0.1 T=0.3 T=0.5 T=1.0 T=2.0
Sa SP1 SP2 SP1 SP2 SP1 SP2 SP1 SP2 SP1 SP2
Change-campbell 0.495 0.879 0.515 0.909 0.265 0.566 0.11 0.28 0.05 0.12
Ghodrati 2010 0.388 0.576 0.432 0.747 0.228 0.413 0.138 0.259 0.044 0.091
Total 0.4308 0.6972 0.4652 0.8118 0.2428 0.4742 0.1268 0.2674 0.0464 0.1026
 1395 " $" !"#

2" D + .5

* X 0/1 @*3 A .; J - 3 0: : B* ' 6 " L %10 %2 * X 0/3 ; @*3 A

/ 4 Q 2800 : A _*3 ' F . 4* * _*3 A # : - J qs 4 * X 0/3
. < : B

JK " .6

0 - :L ) C B : - Q 0. = > Q \Z =/ _*3 *> =/ M*,N ~ "!0 W - .1

1394,0 F *\L h: > "
*8- * ([ B .: - Q . / L 3 _*3 5/ Z =/ _*3 **( .(1383) .O 0 ! :> .2
http:// www.iiees.ac.ir . :> . ,," * B y .3
.13700 Q > <C 2 B 0 \N "1 0Q * ~ 0M , 0.* 8 .4
1385,0 . :> . ,," * B y0 1 > "/ \> M"( .5
.13840 Z\ Q " / 2 * N .- 0(O ) 2800 : : . Q"/ L 3 *TC .6
7. A.Nowroozi, empirical relations between magnitude and fault parameters for earthguakes in
Iran,Bulletin of the seismological society of america, Vol .75,No.5,1327-1338,1985.
8. Relationship between fault length and maximum expected magnitude Iranian Committee of Large
Dams(IRCOLD),Internal Report,1994.
9. J.K Gardaner,L.Knopoff ,Is the sequence of earthquake in southern California,with aftershockes
removed,poissonian,Bulletin of the seismological society of America,Vol.64,No.5,PP.1363-1367,1974.
10. A.kijko,Statical estimation of maximum regional earthquake magnitude Mmax, Workshop of
seismicity Modeling in seismic hazard Mapping,poljce,slovenia,May,22-24,2000.
11. Campbell, K.W. (1997). Empirical near-source attenuation relationships for horizontal and vertical
components of peak ground acceleration, peak ground velocity, and pseudo-absolute acceleration response
spectra. Seismological Research Letters. 68(1). 154179.
12. Ghodrati Amiri, G. Khorasani, M. MirzaHesabi, R. and RazavianAmrei, Sa. (2010), Ground-Motion
Prediction Equations of Spectral Ordinates and Arias Intensity for Iran. Journal of Earthquake Engineering.
Vol.14. Issue 1. pp.1-29.
13. B. Bender,D.M. perkins,SEISRISK-III :computer program for seismic hazard estimation,US
Geological Survey ,bulletin 1772,1987.