QU M VCBF

Bo co Qu 1 nm 2017

CP NHT TNH HNH

KINH T V M

Tng trng GDP Qu 1 nm Mc d cc s liu hai thng u nm 2017 a ra cc ch bo tng trng

2017 t 5,1% so vi cng k chm hn so vi nm 2016, tc tng trng 5,1% ca GDP trong Qu 1/2017
nm trc vn thp hn so vi d on. Cng ging nh nm 2016, ngnh Khai khong l
nguyn nhn chnh ko gim tc tng trng. Ngnh ny gim 10,0% so
vi cng k nm trc, gim mnh hn so mc gim 1,2% cng k nm 2016.
Mc d gi du th v gi kh t nhin tng 90,6% so vi Qu 1 nm 2016, khai
thc du kh vn cha phc hi. Trong Qu 1/2017, ch s sn xut du th v kh
t nhin gim 13,6% so vi cng k nm trc, so vi mc gim 1,9% trong
Qu 1/2016. Bn cnh , khai thc than cng gim 5,5% trong Qu 1/2017, tri
ngc vi mc tng trng 0,9% trong Qu 1/2016. S st gim ca ngnh Khai
khong, mc d ngnh ny ch chim 6,5% tng GDP, lm gim tng trng
GDP 0,8%.

Tng trng khu vc Cng Trong khi ngnh Khai khong c mc st gim ln nht, tng trng chung ca
nghip thp nht trong vng 5 khu vc Cng nghip v Xy dng cng st gim so vi Qu 1/2016 do cc
nm, ngnh Ch bin, ch to ngnh khc trong khu vc Cng nghip v Xy dng cng tng trng thp. Khu
cng st gim vc ny tng 4,2% so vi cng k nm trc trong Qu 1/2017, thp nht k t
nm 2011. Tng trng ca ngnh Xy dng, chim 5,0% GDP, gim xung cn
6,1% so vi cng k nm trc, t mc 8,6% trong Qu 1/2016. Cc ngnh tin
ch (in v nc), chim 5,2% GDP, tng 9,2%, so vi 12,6% trong Qu 1/2016.

Tng trng ngnh Ch bin, Ngnh Ch bin, ch to chim 18,1% GDP v l ngnh ln nht trong khu vc
ch to c d bo s phc Cng nghip v Xy dng (chim 34,9% GDP ) cng c tng trng so vi cng
hi, ch s PMI ch bo s k nm trc st gim trong Qu 1/2017, xung cn 8,3%, t 8,9% trong Qu
hi phc 1/2016 v 9,7% trong Qu 1/2015. Hu ht cc nhm sn phm trong tng s 18
nhm sn phm trong ngnh Ch bin, ch to ghi nhn cc mc tng trng rt
khc nhau, ng ch l sn xut kim loi tng trng 43,4% so vi cng k nm
trc trong Qu 1/2017. Nhm sn phm gim nhiu nht l ni tht vi mc
gim l 3,6%.

Mc d vy, im ng ch l ch s sn xut in t v quang hc gim 1,0%

so vi cng k nm trc trong Qu 1/2017, trong khi sn xut tivi tng trng
mnh 43,3%. Cc cng ty FDI Hn Quc chim lnh th trng ny, v cng ty
in t Samsung Vit Nam l nh sn xut in thoi di ng ln nht ti Vit
Nam. S c thu hi sn phm in thoi thng minh Samsung Galaxy Note 7
to ra mt t khng hong nh trong Qu 4/2016. Trong Qu 1/2017, sn lng
sn xut in thoi di ng gim 8,2% xung cn 46,9 triu chic, iu ny
c Tng Cc Thng k nhn nhn l do cc nh my ca Sam Sung ang trong
qu trnh chun b cho vic a ra sn phm mi. Samsung thng thng a ra
th trng mt hoc hai sn phm ch lc mi nm. Vic ch s hng tn kho cc
sn phm in t v quang hc tng 79,6% so vi cng k nm trc trong
Qu 1/2017 cho thy sn xut ca ngnh ny c th tng tr li mt khi sn phm
mi c chnh thc ra mt.

Ch s PMI t mc cao nht t thng 5/2015 vi 54,6 im. Tng trng ca cc

Bo co Qu M VCBF Qu 1 nm 2017 1
 n t hng mi v vic lm trong ch s PMI cng ch bo vic st gim trong
ngnh Ch bin, ch to ch l tm thi. Tng trng tn dng tng t 4,0% t
u nm trong Qu 1/2017, mc tng nhanh nht trong vng su nm qua, nh
vy ngun vn tn dng ang c bm nhiu hn vo nn kinh t, do s kch
thch tng trng.

FDI tip tc tng trng v FDI chim khong 50% sn lng cng nghip v trn 70% kim ngch xut khu
cha b nh hng bi chnh ca Vit Nam. Dng vn FDI cha b nh hng bi cc chnh sch thng mi
sch thng mi vi M ca Tng thng M mi. Gn 500 nh u t FDI mi v trn 200 nh u t FDI
hin ti vi cam kt 7,7 t USD vn u t trong Qu 1/2017, cao hn 91,5% so
vi cng k nm 2016, bao gm vic ph duyt b sung 2,5 t USD cho d n
ca Tp on Samsung Bc Ninh. FDI gii ngn t 3,6 t USD trong Qu
1/2017, tng 3,8% so vi cng k nm 2016.

Cn cn thng mi thm ht Thm ht thng mi trong Qu 1/2017 t 1,9 t USD sau khi t thng d 2,5
tr li sau khi t thng d t USD nm 2016 v thm ht 2,7 t USD trong nm 2015. Kim ngch nhp khu
trong sut nm 2016 tng 24,9% so vi cng k nm trc t 46,6 t USD trong Qu 1/2017, trong
khi kim ngch xut khu tng 15,1% t 44,6 t USD. Nh vy, thm ht thng
mi xut hin tr li. Sn phm nhp khu ng th 6 l my mc, thit b v
ph tng trong Qu 1/2017 nhp khu 8,0 t USD, tng 35,9% so vi cng k
nm trc. Cc sn phm nhp khu ch yu khc bao gm my vi tnh, sn phm
in t v linh kin, 7,6 t USD tng 19,6%, vi, nguyn ph liu dt may, da
giy (bao gm c bng v s si), 4,6 t USD, tng 14,5% v sn phm thp v
kim loi, 4,5 t USD, tng 36,0% so vi cng k nm trc.

Kim ngch xut khu t 44,6 t USD trong Qu 1/2017, tng 15,1% so vi cng
k nm trc, tc tng trng nhanh nht k t mc tng 13,6% t c vo
thng 12/2014. ng ch l tc tng trng ny vn t c mc d xut
khu mt hng in thoi v linh kin st gim ti 6,1% so vi cng k nm trc
trong Qu 1/2017, sau khi tng 22,6% trong Qu 4/2016. Vi 7,8 t USD gi tr
xut khu, sn phm in thoi v linh kin l sn phm xut khu ln th hai,
chim 17,5% tng kim ngch xut khu, sau sn phm giy dp v may mc, tng
10,1% t 8,7 t USD. My vi tnh, sn phm in t v linh kin cng ghi nhn
tng trng 47,9% so vi cng k nm trc, t 5,5 t USD. Sn phm thy sn
v nng nghip cng tng trng tt, 16,3%, t 5,0 t USD. Kim ngch xut
khu go st gim 17,3%, ht tiu gim 11,5% c b p bi mc tng
trng mnh m ca xut khu caf (tng 27,5% so vi cng k nm trc), hng
rau qu (tng 29,8%) v cao su (tng 90,7%).

Khu vc Dch v tng trng Khu vc Dch v, vn ng gp ln nht vo GDP, tng 6,5% so vi cng k
tt, cu ni a duy tr mc nm trc trong Qu 1/2017, so vi 6,1% ca Qu 1/2016. Khu vc Dch v s
cao, lm pht gim nh dng 33,9% trong tng s 53,4 triu lao ng, ch thp hn Khu vc nng nghip
(40,6%), v ng gp ti 44,0% GDP. Tt c cc khi ngnh trong Khu vc Dch
v u c tc tng trng cao, ng ch l khi ngnh Bn bun, Bn l
(tng 7,4%) v ngnh Dch v ti chnh (tng 7,8%).

Doanh s bn l tng trng thc 6,2% so vi cng k nm trc trong Qu

1/2017, thp hn 7,5% ca cng k nm 2016, trong khi tng trng danh ngha
tng ng vi cng k nm 2016, t trn 9,0%, mt mc tng trng kh cao.
Lm pht gim t 5,0% so vi cng k nm trc trong thng 2/2017 xung
cn 4,7% trong thng 3/2017, trong khi lm pht Qu 1/2016 gn nh khng ng
k. Tuy nhin, lm pht li (khng bao gm gi thc phm v nng lng)
tng t 1,5% trong thng 2/2017 ln 1,6% trong thng 3/2017. im ng ch

Bo co Qu M VCBF Qu 1 nm 2017 2
 l gi thuc v dch v y t tip tc c iu chnh, tng 7,5% so vi thng trc
trong thng 3/2017 v tng 35,9% so vi cng k nm trc.

Trin vng 2017 Mc d mc tiu tng trng 6,7% ca Chnh ph nm 2017 l kh t c vi

kt qu tng trng ca Qu 1, cc ng lc tng trng ch yu bao gm ngnh
Ch bin, ch to v ngnh Dch v ang pht trin tt v s tip sc cho tng
trng trong cc qu tip theo.

Cc Ch S Kinh t V M Ch Yu

Q1-2017 Q4-2016 Q3-2016 Q2-2016 Q1-2016 Q4-2015 Q3-2015 Q2-2015 Q1-2015

Tng trng GDP Qu { 7.0% 6.9% 6.5% 6.1%
yoy 5.1% 6.7% 6.4% 5.8% 5.5%
Tng trng GDP- T u nm { yoy n.a. 6.2% 5.9% 5.5% 5.5% 6.7% 6.5% 6.3% 6.0%

Thng 3 Thng 2 Thng 1 Thng 3 Thng 2 Thng 1

2017 2017 2017 2017 2017 2017
mom 0.2% 0.2% 0.5% ytd 8.6% 6.9% 4.9%
CPI { VN Index (HSX) {
yoy 4.7% 5.0% 5.2% yoy 28.7% 27.1% 27.9%
Cung tin (M2) ytd 3.5% 1.9% n.a. ytd 13.4% 8.4% 5.4%
HNX Index {
Tng trng tn dng ytd 4.0% 1.2% 1.0% yoy 14.9% 10.3% 9.8%
Tng trng bn l thc yoy 6.2% 5.6% 6.7% Mua rng ca Nh u t NN ($ m) mth $ 93.5 $ 28.3 $ 32.0
mom 12.5% -2.1% -6.2% FDI ng k mi ($ m) mth $ 4,069.1 $ 1,365.1 $ 1,423.0
Ch s sn xut Cng nghip {
yoy 5.5% 15.2% -7.5% FDI gii ngn ($ m) mth $ 2,070.0 $ 700.0 $ 850.0
mom 10.6% -1.6% -6.8% Xut khu ($ m) mth $16,300.0 $ 13,106.0 $ 14,323.0
Ch s Sn xut {
yoy 8.9% 22.4% -5.4% Nhp khu ($ m) mth $17,400.0 $ 15,150.0 $ 13,082.0
PMI mth 54.6 54.2 51.9 Cn cn thng mi ($ m) ytd $ (1,903.0) $ (803.0) $ 1,241.0
Li sut tin gi bng VND k
hn 12 thng 6.5% 6.5% 6.5% T ra bn ra USD ca ngn hng VND 22,790 22,810 22,630

Ngun: GSO, SBV, VCB, Hi quan, Nikkei + tng hp khc ci thin St gim/khng i

Bo co Qu M VCBF Qu 1 nm 2017 3
TH TRNG C PHIU
VN-Index HN-Index 12 thng kt thc ngy 31/03/2017

Ngun: Bloomberg

Ch s VN-Index tng 8,64% Trong ngy u tin sau Tt Nguyn n, ch s VN-Index ln u tin ng
trong Qu 1/2017, hi phc ca mc 700 k t nm 2008. Mc d Cc D tr Lin bang M tng li
sau giai on st gim Qu sut vo gia thng 3, VN-Index vn tip tc tng, t mc cao nht trong 9
4/2016 v thit lp nh cao nm ti 723,86 im vo ngy 30 thng 3 nm 2017. VN-Index tng 8,64%
nht trong vng 9 nm qua. Qu 1/2017. Tuy nhin, mc tng 1,6% trong thng 3 thp hn mc tng trong
thng 2 (4,9%) v thng 1 (1,9%).

Nhiu cng ty ln c nim Sau quy nh v nim yt v giao dch c phiu bt buc i vi cc cng ty i
yt trn S giao dch Chng chng, trong Qu 1/2017, th trng tip tc chng kin rt nhiu c phiu c
khon H Ch Minh (HSX) vn ha nim yt trn HSX nh Cng ty c phn Tp on u t a c Nova
v UpCom (NVL) v Cng ty c phn Hng khng Vietjet (VJC), v ng k dao dch trn
sn UpCom nh Hng hng khng Quc gia Vit Nam (HVN), Tp on Dt
may Vit Nam (VGT), Cng ty c phn Hng Tiu dng Masan (MCH), Ngn
hng Quc T (VIB) and Cng ty c phn Vin thng FPT (FOX). Gi tr vn
ha th trng ca sn Upcom t mc 19,7 t USD vo cui Qu 1/2017, gp
4,4 ln so vi nm trc. Tng vn ha th trng ca HSX, S Giao dch
Chng khon H Ni (HNX), v sn Upcom t trn 100 t USD vo cui Qu
1/2017. Trong Qu 2, Tp on Xng du Vit Nam (PLX) s nim yt v s tr
thnh mt trong mi c phiu c gi tr vn ha ln nht ca VN-Index.

VNM, ROS v cc m c Bn c phiu ny ng gp hn 50% mc tng ca VN-Index (55,1%). Pht

phiu ngn hng (CTG & biu ca Th tng v k hoch nng t l s hu ca nh u t nc ngoi
BID) y th trng tng to tng trng ca cc m c phiu thuc ngnh ngn hng trong Qu
im trong Qu 1/2017 1/2017. Cng ty TNHH u t v Pht trin FLC Faros tip tc tng 43,1 %
trong Qu 1/2017.

Bo co Qu M VCBF Qu 1 nm 2017 4
 Xt v gc ngnh, Du lch v Gii tr c mc tng trng cao nht t 34,8%,
ch yu nh s tng gi ca Cng ty C phn Hng khng VietJet (VJC), t
mc 51,4% k t khi nim yt. VJC tng trng n tng trong nm 2016 vi
doanh thu tng 38,7% v li nhun tng 95,8%. Tuy nhin cn ch rng li
nhun ca VJC n t vic bn my bay tng t 27,9% tng li nhun trong
nm 2015 ln 38,0% trong nm 2016. Ngnh Xy dng v vt liu xy dng
tng 27,9% nh vo m c phiu ROS. C phiu ngnh Chm sc sc khe ng
v tr th ba vi mc tng 25,5% vi s ng gp ch yu n t Cng ty c
phn Dc phm Hu Giang khi tng 41,2% trong Qu 1 do li nhun Qu 4
tng v k hoch tng t l s hu ca nh u t nc ngoi ln n 60% hoc
100%. Nh s thay i trong danh mc sn phm, li nhun ca DHG trong Qu
4/2016 tng 46,2% so vi cng k nm trc v tng 20,6% trong nm 2016 so
vi nm 2015.

Thanh khon tng ng k Thanh khon tng ng k trong Qu 1/2017: Tng gi tr giao dch trn HSX
trong Qu 1/2017 tng 42,7% so vi Qu 1/2016. Tuy nhin, nu loi tr gi tr giao dch ca m
c phiu ROS, mc tng ch t khong 20%. Khi ngoi mua rng xp x 144
triu USD trn HSX, tuy nhin a s vic mua rng n t giao dch mua
Vinamilk (155 triu USD), ch yu ca F&N Beverage Manufacturing Pte v
F&N Dairy Investments Pte.

Gi tr giao dch trn sn HSX trong 12 thng (Triu USD)

4,500

4,000

3,500

3,000

2,500

2,000

1,500

1,000

500

0
04/16 05/16 06/16 07/16 08/16 09/16 10/16 11/16 12/16 01/17 02/17 03/17

Ngun: hsx.vn, VCBF

Bo co Qu M VCBF Qu 1 nm 2017 5
 Gi tr giao dch rng ca Nh u t nc ngoi trong 12 thng
(Triu USD)
60

40

20

-
04/16 05/16 06/16 07/16 08/16 09/16 10/16 11/16 12/16 01/17 02/17 03/17
(20)

(40)

(60)

(80)

(100)

(120)

(140)

Ngun: hsx.vn, VCBF

TH TRNG TRI
PHIU

K hoch pht hnh 2017 Kho bc Nh nc thng bo k hoch pht hnh tri phiu Chnh ph nm 2017
thp hn d kin vi tng mc pht hnh 183,3 nghn t ng, thp hn kh nhiu so vi d on
trc l khong 250 nghn t ng. Tuy nhin, k hoch pht hnh trong qu
kh c chng minh l kh linh hot v c th c iu chnh li da vo
tng quan cung-cu. Khc vi nm 2016, k hoch cng bao gm vic pht
hnh tri phiu chnh ph mt nm vi 18 nghn t ng.

K hn K hoch pht hnh Gi tr pht hnh

2017 2016
(T VN) (T VN)
1 nm 18.000 -
2-3 nm 10.000 25.142
5 nm 80.300 162.425
7 nm 25.000 25.695
10 nm 5.000 7.978
15 nm 20.000 31.727
20 nm 10.000 3.314
30 nm 15.000 25.469
Tng cng 183.300 281.750

Bo co Qu M VCBF Qu 1 nm 2017 6
Nhu cu tri phiu chnh Trong Qu 1/2017, Kho bc Nh nc pht hnh thnh cng 56,5 nghn t
ph tng tr li mnh m VN, t 86,9% k hoch pht hnh ca qu ny v t 77,9% gi tr gi thu.
trong thng 2 v thng 3 Do tnh hnh thanh khon kh cng thng ca h thng ngn hng, nhu cu Tri
2017 phiu chnh ph khng cao lm trong thng 1, vi gi tr ng k vo khong 2,1
ln gi tr huy ng. Tuy nhin, nhu cu tng cao tr li trong thng 2 vo thng
3, vi gi tr ng k gp 2,5 v 2,6 ln gi tr huy ng.

K hoch pht pht hnh

hnh Qu 1/2017 % Hon thnh
K hn
Qu 1/2017 (T VN ) k hoch
(T VN )
3 nm 3.000 - 0,0%
5 nm 30.000 14.956 49,9%
7 nm 10.000 11.185 111,9%
10 nm 3.000 2.236 74,5%
15 nm 8.000 9.853 123,2%
20 nm 5.000 7.150 143,0%
30 nm 6.000 11.117 185,3%
Tng
65.000 56.497 86,9%
cng

Nhu cu ca nh u t chuyn dn t tri phiu ngn hn sang tri phiu di

hn hn. Trong thng 1, gi tr ng k ca Tri phiu k hn 5 nm gp 3 ln
gi tr huy ng, nhng gim xung ch cn 2 ln trong thng 3. Ngc li, gi
tr ng k tri phiu k hn 15 nm v di hn trong thng 3 gp 3,4 ln so vi
gi tr huy ng, cao hn so vi thng 1 khi gi tr ng k ch gp 1,3 ln. Cch
bit ln gia li sut tri phiu k hn di v k hn ngn phn no l gii v sao
nhu cu tri phiu di hn tng cao.

So vi Qu 4/2016, th trng th cp gim mt cch ng k, vi khi lng

giao dch gim khong 30%. Tuy nhin, so vi Qu 1/2016, giao dch gim ti
63%. Tnh trung bnh, khong 4 nghn t VN c giao dch mi phin giao
dch trong Qu 1/2017. Trong thng 3 nm 2017, nh u t nc ngoi tip tc
mua rng vi gi tr mua rng t 7,8 nghn t ng (khong 343,6 triu ).

Bo co Qu M VCBF Qu 1 nm 2017 7
Li sut tri phiu bin ng
Li sut tri phiu Chnh ph k hn 1-15 nm
khc nhau gia cc k hn

Ngun: Bloomberg

Nhn chung Qu 1/2017, li sut cho tri phiu c k hn ngn c xu hng

gim v chm y vo gia thng 3 v hi phc mt cht na sau thng 3 do
nh u t chuyn hng sang u t vo cc tri phiu c k hn di hn. th
trng s cp, tri phiu c k hn 3 nm cha c gi thu trong Qu 1.

Li sut trng thu ca tri phiu chnh ph k hn 5 nm gim t 5,25% vo

u thng 1 xung 5,05% vo gia thng 3 v tng tr li vo khong 5,10% vo
cui thng 3. Tri phiu k hn 15 nm c giao dch trong khong t 7,20%
ti 7,25% trong thng 1, nhng bt u c xu hng gim k t thng 2 v t
6,85% trong thng 3. K hn 20 nm v 30 nm c gi nguyn ln lt mc
7,69% v 7,89% trong sut Qu 1/2017 nhng bt u gim tun cui ca
thng 3 khi m nhu cu chuyn dn sang tri phiu di hn. Kt thc Qu, li
sut trng thu ca k hn 20 nm l 7,45% v k hn 30 nm l 7,9%.

Vic bm tin ca Ngn hng Nh nc thng qua th trng OMO v th

trng tn phiu, lm du li tnh hnh thanh khon ca h thng ngn hng,
v nhu cu ca nh u t nc duy tr mnh m i vi tri phiu chnh ph
trong hu ht Qu 1/2017. V vy, li sut c gi mc thp. Tuy nhin, nhu
cu tng li sut tri phiu tng ln, c chng minh bng t l trng thu
thp hn cc tri phiu k hn ngn hn. Tng trng tn dng cao (4,03%
trong Qu 1/2017 so vi 1,79% trong Qu 1/2016 v M2 tng 3,52% trong Qu
1/2017) v p lc thu ht tin gi trong trung v di hn c th s tip tc lm
tng p lc ln li sut tri phiu chnh ph. Tuy nhin, li sut c kim sot
gt gao bi Kho bc nh nc, do li sut ca tri phiu k hn ngn s c
gi thp nh mc hin ti. V vy, nhu cu s chuyn sang k hn di hn, iu
ny c th s lm li sut ca tri phiu 15 nm v di hn s gim hn na.

Bo co Qu M VCBF Qu 1 nm 2017 8
THNG TIN QU TI Qu u T Cn Bng Chin Lc VCBF (VCBF -TBF)
NGY 31/03/2017
Chin lc ca Qu
Tng gi tr ti sn rng -
167.649.496.926 VND Qu u t cn bng chin lc VCBF (VCBF-TBF) s u t 50% ti
sn ca Qu vo c phiu v 50% vo chng khon c thu nhp c nh
NAV/n v qu: trong iu kin thng thng.Vic phn b ti sn c th s thay i
16.542,21 VND 25,0% so vi t trng trn ty thuc vo cc c hi u t sn c v nh gi
ca i ng u t v ri ro v li nhun mang li ca cc c hi u t ny
S lng n v qu: i vi cc loi ti sn.
10.134.648,61 Chng khon c thu nhp c nh cht lng cao bao gm, tin gi ngn
hng, tri phiu Chnh ph Vit Nam, tri phiu chnh quyn a phng,
Ngy thnh lp: 24/12/2013 tri phiu c bo lnh ca Chnh ph, tri phiu doanh nghip c nim
yt. Tri phiu doanh nghip c nim yt ch c xem xt u t nu
Ngy giao dch: Th T p ng c yu cu v mc an ton nht nh
hng tun
Qu s ch yu u t vo mt danh mc u t a dng cc c phiu
nim yt c gi tr vn ha th trng ln v c thanh khon tt trn HSX v
Ph mua (Ti a): 2%
HNX.
Qu s s dng phng php tip cn t di ln tc l t phn tch cc ch
Ph Qun l: 1,5%
s c bn ca cng ty la chn c phiu u t v la chn cc cng
ty trong nhiu ngnh khc nhau.
Mc tiu u t ca Qu l mang li li nhun di hn thng qua tng
trng vn gc v thu nhp bng cch u t vo cc c phiu v cc ti
sn c thu nhp c nh c cht lng tn dng tt.

LI NHUN THAM CHIU TNH HNH HOT NG CA QU

Li nhun tham chiu ca Qu
l t sut li nhun c xc
nh bng trung bnh gin n NAV/n v qu
17,000
thay i ca ch s VN-Index VND 15,737.83
v li sut ca tri phiu k 16,000 @31.03.2017
hn 10 nm ca Chnh ph 15,000

14,000
VND 11,906.67 VND 14,092.35
13,000
@31.12.2015 @31.12.2016
12,000

11,000

BAN IU HNH QU 10,000

ng Avinash Satwalekar, CFA 9,000
B Ng Phng Anh, CFA 8/22/2014 4/22/2015 12/22/2015 8/22/2016 03/31/2017
B Nguyn Th Hng Nga,
CFA

Li nhun (khng bao gm ph mua) Qu Li nhun tham chiu

Qu 1 nm 2017 9,7% 5,1%
3 nm (%/nm) 15,9% 7,4%
T khi thnh lp (%/nm) 16,6% 9,6%

Bo co Qu M VCBF Qu 1 nm 2017 9
 PHN B TI SN CA QU

29.4%
C phiu

Ti sn thu
nhp c nh
70.6%

TOP 5 C PHIU NM GI % NAV

Cng ty c phn sa Vit Nam (VNM) 9.5%
Cng ty CP Dt may - u t -Thng mi Thnh Cng (TCM) 5.9%
Ngn hng TMCP Qun i (MBB) 4.5%
Cng ty c phn FPT (FPT) 4.4%
Cng ty c phn Dc Phm Hu Giang (DHG) 3.1%
S liu cp nht ngy 31/03/2017

Li nhun ca Qu VCBF-TBF tng 9,7% trong Qu 1/2017 v cao hn 4,6% so

vi li nhun tham chiu nh vo nhm ngnh Hng ha tiu dng v Y t. Ba
c phiu, Cng ty C phn Dt May - u t - Thng mi Thnh Cng (TCM),
Cng ty C phn Sa Vit Nam (VNM) and Cng ty c phn Dc Hu Giang
(DHG), ng gp 45,1% cho li nhun ca Qu trong Qu. i vi TCM, cng
ty t k hoch li nhun tng 55,5% nm nay nh vic gim l ca nh my
Vnh Long v ng ca mt nh my si hot ng khng hiu qu. Doanh thu
Qu 1/2017 l 750 t ng (tng 1,4% so vi cng k nm trc) v li nhun
rng l 47,7 t ng (tng 115,8% so vi cng k nm trc), nh vo doanh thu
mng may mc trong thng 3/2017 t con s k lc 10 triu USD, cao nht t
trc n nay, gim l ca nh my Vnh Long v c hng li t vic tng

Bo co Qu M VCBF Qu 1 nm 2017 10
 gi ca bng v si trong khi tn kho si gi r. i vi VNM, vic F&N Dairy
Investments tip tc mua c phn ca VNM y gi VNM ln. F&N Dairy
Investments nm gi 227,2 triu c phiu tnh ti thi im ngy 8 thng 4 nm
2017 v tip tc ng k mua thm 14,5 triu c phiu, vi mc tiu nm gi
16,69% sau giao dch. Gi c phiu ca VNM cng c hng li t gi sa
u vo gim (gim 15,9% trong Qu 1/2017). Cng ty t mc tiu tng trng
8,0% doanh thu v 4,0% li nhun trong nm 2017. Tuy nhin li nhun tng
34,0% trong Qu 1 do chi ph bn hng c ct gim. Gi c phiu DHG tng
41,2% trong Qu 1 do li nhun Qu 4 tng 46,2% so vi cng k nm trc v
tng trng 20,6% trong nm 2016 so vi 2015 do t sut li nhun tng nh
thay i danh mc sn phm. i hi ng c ng thng nin DHG cng
ph duyt tng t l nm gi ca nh u t nc ngoi ln trn 49%.

Bo co Qu M VCBF Qu 1 nm 2017 11
THNG TIN QU TI QU U T C PHIU HNG U VCBF (VCBF BCF)
NGY 31/12/2016
CHIN LC U T CA QU
Tng gi tr ti sn rng:
241.458.829.040 VND Qu u T C Phiu Hng u VCBF (VCBF-BCF) s ch yu u t
vo mt danh mc a dng cc c phiu nim yt c gi tr vn ha th
NAV/n v qu: trng ln v c thanh khon tt trn HSX v HNX. C phiu c xem l
15.737,83 VND c vn ha th trng ln l nhng c phiu c vn ho th trng ln hn
vn ho th trng ca c phiu c vn ha ln th 100 c nim yt trn
S lng n v qu: HSX.
15.342.566,79 Qu s kt hp c chin lc u t tng trng v chin lc u t gi tr.
Trong vic tm kim cc c tnh tng trng bn vng, VCBF nh gi c
Ngy thnh lp: 22/08/2014 hi th trng trong di hn v tnh cnh tranh ca tng ngnh nhm n
cc cng ty u ngnh v cc cng ty c trin vng tr thnh cng ty u
Ngy giao dch: Th T ngnh. Trong vic nh gi gi tr ca cng ty, VCBF s xem xt liu gi
hng tun chng khon phn nh y mi tng quan gia c hi tng trng
bn vng vi ri ro kinh doanh v ri ro ti chnh hay cha.
Ph mua (Ti a): 2% Qu s s dng phng php tip cn t di ln tc l t phn tch cc ch
s c bn ca cng ty la chn c phiu u t v la chn cc cng
Ph Qun l: 1,9% ty trong nhiu ngnh khc nhau. T trng ngnh trong danh mc u t
ca Qu l kt qu ca quy trnh phn tch c bn cng ty v v vy c th
khc vi t trng ngnh trong ch s tham chiu.
LI NHUN THAM CHIU
Li nhun tham chiu ca Qu TNH HNH HOT NG CA QU
l t sut li nhun ca ch s
VN100
NAV/n v qu
17,000
VND 15,737.83
16,000 @31.03.2017

15,000

14,000
VND 11,906.67 VND 14,092.35
13,000
@31.12.2015 @31.12.2016
BAN IU HNH QU 12,000
ng Avinash Satwalekar, CFA
B Ng Phng Anh, CFA 11,000
B Nguyn Th Hng Nga, 10,000
CFA
9,000
8/22/2014 4/22/2015 12/22/2015 8/22/2016 03/31/2017

Li nhun tham
Li nhun (khng bao gm ph mua) Qu chiu
Qu 1 nm 2017 11.7% 11.0%
T khi thnh lp (%/nm) 19.0% 5.9%

Li nhun ca Qu VCBF-BCF t mc 11,7% trong Qu 1/2017 v cao hn li

nhun tham chiu 0,7% nh vo ngnh Hng ha tiu dng v Ti chnh. Ba c
phiu Cng ty c phn Dt may - u t - Thng mi Thnh Cng (TCM),
Cng ty c phn Sa Vit Nam (VNM) and Ngn hng thng mi c phn
Chu (ACB) ng gp 42,9% cho li nhun ca Qu trong Qu. i vi TCM,
cng ty t k hoch li nhun tng 55,5% nm nay nh vic gim l ca nh
my Vnh Long v ng ca mt nh my si hot ng khng hiu qu. Doanh

Bo co Qu M VCBF Qu 1 nm 2017 12
 thu cho Qu 1/2017 l 750 t ng (tng 1,4% so vi cng k nm trc) v li
nhun rng l 47,7 t ng (tng 115,8% so vi cng k nm trc), nh vo
doanh thu mng may mc trong thng 3/2017 t con s k lc 10 triu USD,
cao nht t trc n nay, gim l ca nh my Vnh Long v c hng li t
vic tng gi ca bng v si trong khi tn kho si gi r. i vi VNM, vic
F&N Dairy Investments tip tc mua c phn ca VNM y gi VNM ln.
F&N Dairy Investments nm gi 227,2 triu c phiu tnh ti thi im ngy 8
thng 4 nm 2017 v tip tc ng k mua thm 14,5 triu c phiu, vi mc tiu
nm gi 16,69% sau giao dch. Gi c phiu ca VNM cng c hng li t
gi sa u vo gim (gim 15,9% trong Qu 1/2017). Cng ty t mc tiu tng
trng 8,0% doanh thu v 4,0% li nhun trong nm 2017. Tuy nhin li nhun
tng 34,0% trong Qu 1 do chi ph bn hng c ct gim. ACB c li
nhun trc thu tng 27,0% trong nm 2016 v t k hoch tng 32,0% trong
nm 2017 nh y mnh tn dng v thu t dch v. 2017 c cho l nm cui
cng ngn hng x l dt im n xu lin quan n ng Nguyn c Kin,
mt thnh vin Hi ng qun tr c ca ngn hng.

PHN B TI SN CA QU

22.1%

C phiu

Tin mt

77.9%

Bo co Qu M VCBF Qu 1 nm 2017 13
 TOP 5 C PHIU ANG NM GI % NAV
Cng ty c phn sa Vit Nam (VNM) 10.1%
Cng ty CP Dt may-u t -Thng mi Thnh Cng (TCM) 6.4%
Ngn hng TMCP Qun i (MBB) 6.3%
Cng ty c phn FPT (FPT) 5.9%
Cng ty c phn Container Vit Nam (VSC) 3.8%
S liu cp nht ngy 31/03/2017

NHN NH CA CNG Mc d GDP Qu 1/2017 khng nh mong i, chng ta cng khng nn bi

TY QUN L QU quan v GDP tng trng thp ch yu do nh hng ca ngnh Khai khong.
Tng trng ca Xy dng gim xung nhng xu hng ny l d hiu khi trong
giai on nm 2015-2016 c mt lot d n mi nn xu hng gim trong
nm 2017 c d on trc. Ngnh ch bin ch to tng trng thp hn
mt phn do sn lng ca in thoi di ng gim 8,2% trong Qu 1/2017, ch
yu l do s kin thu hi dng sn phm Galaxy Note 7. Tuy nhin, vi s liu
lng n t hng trc ca dng sn phm Samsung Galaxy S8 t k lc so
vi cc dng sn phm trc y, chng ta c th k vng sn xut in thoi di
ng s tng trng tr li. Ngoi ra, ch s PMI tng mnh t thng 2 v
thng 3 t mc cao nht k t thng 3 nm 2015 gi mt tn hiu tch cc.
Mc d nh gi th trng c phiu Vit Nam mc kh cao nhng ch yu do
b nh hng bi cc m c phiu c vn ha ln (v d nh ROS c giao
dch ti mc P/E ti 141 ln). PE trung v ca th trng ch l 11 ln v do
vn cn c nhiu c hi u t.

nh gi th trng chng khon Vit Nam so vi mt s th trng mi ni khc

Nc GDP 2017 (*) 12 thng gn nht Qu trc
ROE (%) EV/EBITDA PE PB
Trung Quc 6.5% 10.0 17.1x 18.9x 1.8x
Thi Lan 3.3% 11.9 10.2x 17.0x 1.9x
Malaysia 4.4% 10.5 11.0x 17.1x 1.7x
Indonesia 5.3% 10.6 12.9x 25.1x 2.5x
n 7.0% 14.0 12.6x 22.5x 3.1x
Brazil 0.7% 8.1 8.8x 18.8x 1.6x
Philipin 6.5% 12.3 13.3x 21.1x 2.5x
Vit Nam 6.4% 12.9 12.0x 17.2x 2.2x

(*): Theo tng hp cc d bo t Bloomberg

Ngun: Bloomberg, ti ngy 13/4/2017

Chng ti tip tc tin tng vo trin vng tng trng kinh t ca Vit Nam
trong trung v di hn. Chng ti s tip tc tm kim cc c hi tng t trng
phn b c phiu vo cc cng ty c nh gi s hng li t tng trng kinh
t trong di hn cho c hai Qu, Qu u t cn bng chin lc VCBF v Qu
u t c phiu hng u VCBF.

Bo co Qu M VCBF Qu 1 nm 2017 14
 CNG TY LIN DOANH QUN L QU U T CHNG KHON VIETCOMBANK

Tr s chnh

Tng 15, ta nh Vietcombank, 198 Trn Quang Khi, Hon Kim, H Ni

Tel: 04-39364540, Fax: 04-39364542

Vn phng H Ch Minh

Tng 14, ta nh Centec, 72-74 Nguyn Th Minh Khai, qun 3, H Ch Minh

Tel: 08-38270750, Fax: 08-38270751

www.vcbf.com

Bo co Qu M VCBF Qu 1 nm 2017 15