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Solar Seminar VFF
Solar Seminar VFF
: Solargis.info
: International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) 2016 2
( (
) ) () ()
6.3-8
()
10.8-16.7 9.9-13.1 8.6-9.4
1.
2.
3.
:
(fixed cost)
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5
-
< 1%
()
()
45
40
35
30
25
20
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5
0
2555 2560 2565 2570 2575 2580
: 2558 - 2579 6
Lawrence Berkeley National Lab (
)
10% (Satchwell et al. 2014)
6,000 MW 2.4%
.. 2036 (20 )
10%
4 -5
1.
2.
3.
:
(fixed cost)
()
8
1.
/
1600
1400
(MW)
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
0
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
(MW)
: 9
1.
Net Demand
Duck Curve 3 .. 2560 ( 12-14%
)
20
( 100 )
: Perez et al, 2008
.
11
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(Capacity cost) , ,
/ ()
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(/)
(/) (/kW
Volumetric
Fixed Charge )
Charge
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(Fixed cost) (Variable cost) (Capacity cost)
(/)
(/) (/kW
Fixed Charge
Volumetric
)
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1
2
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/
15
DISRUPTIVE
TECHNOLOGY
?
16
1 2 3
(
)
: : :
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17
1
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Volumetric
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18
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:
A B C
(Fixed cost) (Variable cost) (Capacity cost)
(/)
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Fixed Charge
Volumetric
)
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19
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:
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:
:
(/)
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20
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: , (/ /kW)
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Storage)
21
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C :
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/
:
,
(/kW
) (Energy Storage)
22
1
(benefits)
.
: (lump-
sum)
:
23
()
:
($/)
/
:
($/)
($/)
($/kW
) (Standby/Demand charge)
: North Carolina Clean Energy Technology Center, The 50 States of Solar: Q1 2017 Quarterly Report, April 2017;
Brattle Group 2016. 24
()
/
1. 47 47
2. 44 23
($/)
3. 11 8
($/kW) ()
4. 51 51
() ()
: North Carolina Clean Energy Technology Center, The 50 States of Solar: Q1 2017 Quarterly Report, April 2017,
EIA Electric power sales, revenue, and energy efficiency data 2015
*: ($/kW)
25
()
(/) (/kW)
()
(/)
: . . 2558
,
, 26
2
:
Smart Grid
:
( )
(ramping period)
behind-the-meter energy storage
27
3
Solar Consultation Service (: (CFE); Georgia Power Program)
(: Tucson Electric Power, AZ)
(Energy Service Utility)
(: Consolidated Edison (NY), Tucson Electric
Power, )
(Grid Integrator)
()
(: National Grid utility
Distributed System Platform (DSP) )
*
28
(4-5 )
smart grid
29