You are on page 1of 29

.

: Solargis.info
: International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) 2016 2



( (
) ) () ()

4.3-5 4.3-5 4.0-4.7 3.6-4.2


(/)

* 3.63 5.5 3.9 3.9


(/) +132.9 /kW +132.9 /kW

6.3-8
()
10.8-16.7 9.9-13.1 8.6-9.4

* (Ft) ; // TOU peak


: . 3


1.
2. -
CO2
0.498 kg/kWh
1
CO2 : 0.2 1.1 /*
3.
4.

*: (Social Cost of Carbon) 12-62USD IPCC Fifth Assessment Report 4




1.
2.
3.

:
(fixed cost)
()

5

-
< 1%

()


()
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
2555 2560 2565 2570 2575 2580
: 2558 - 2579 6

Lawrence Berkeley National Lab (
)

10% (Satchwell et al. 2014)

6,000 MW 2.4%
.. 2036 (20 )


10%
4 -5



1.
2.
3.

:
(fixed cost)
()

8
1.




/

1600
1400
(MW)

1200
1000
800
600
400
200
0
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23

(MW)
: 9
1.




Net Demand
Duck Curve 3 .. 2560 ( 12-14%
)

: CAISO 2016 : CAISO 2017 10


2.
Solar PV (intermittent)

20
( 100 )



: Perez et al, 2008

.

11
3.



(Variable cost) (Fixed cost)
/ /


(Capacity cost) , ,
/ ()

12
3.

: (Volumetric charge)


(Fixed cost) (Variable cost) (Capacity cost)



(/)
(/) (/kW
Volumetric
Fixed Charge )
Charge
, ,




13
3.

: (Volumetric charge)


(Fixed cost) (Variable cost) (Capacity cost)



(/)
(/) (/kW
Fixed Charge
Volumetric
)
Charge

, ,



14


1
2
()
3



/

15

DISRUPTIVE
TECHNOLOGY
?

16

1 2 3


(
)

: : :
/

17
1

: (Volumetric charge)


(Fixed cost) (Variable cost) (Capacity cost)



(/)
(/) (/kW
Fixed Charge
Volumetric
)
Charge
, ,



18
1
:

A B C

(Fixed cost) (Variable cost) (Capacity cost)



(/)
(/) (/kW
Fixed Charge
Volumetric
)
Charge



19
1

:
A
(Fixed cost)
:


:

(/)

(Minimum bill)
(Fixed fee)

20
1
OON
:
OF
OFF
:
B
(Variable cost)


/

: , (/ /kW)
(Energy Volumetric Charge
Storage)

21
1
C :

(Capacity cost) :

/
:
,
(/kW
) (Energy Storage)

Demand charge/Backup charge/Standby charge

22
1


(benefits)
.

: (lump-
sum)
:




23
()

:



($/)

/
:
($/)


($/)


($/kW
) (Standby/Demand charge)
: North Carolina Clean Energy Technology Center, The 50 States of Solar: Q1 2017 Quarterly Report, April 2017;
Brattle Group 2016. 24
()
/
1. 47 47

2. 44 23
($/)
3. 11 8
($/kW) ()
4. 51 51
() ()

: North Carolina Clean Energy Technology Center, The 50 States of Solar: Q1 2017 Quarterly Report, April 2017,
EIA Electric power sales, revenue, and energy efficiency data 2015
*: ($/kW)
25





()

(/) (/kW)
()
(/)
: . . 2558






,
, 26
2

:



Smart Grid

:
( )

(ramping period)
behind-the-meter energy storage

27
3


Solar Consultation Service (: (CFE); Georgia Power Program)

(: Tucson Electric Power, AZ)
(Energy Service Utility)
(: Consolidated Edison (NY), Tucson Electric
Power, )

(Grid Integrator)
()
(: National Grid utility
Distributed System Platform (DSP) )

*

28



(4-5 )


smart grid





29

You might also like