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Monetary Policy and Inflation as Reforms of the

Monetary System by National Government

105 6

Monetary Policy and Inflation as Reforms of the


Monetary System by National Government

A Thesis
Submitted to
Department of Business Administration
National Kaohsiung University of Applied Sciences
In Partial Fulfillment of Requirements
For the Degree of Master of Business Administration

June 2016
Kaohsiung, Taiwan, Republic of China

105 6

20089
QE

3040

i
Monetary Policy and Inflation:
as Reforms of the Monetary System by National Government

Student: Sha,Chang-Yen Adviser: Dr. Cheng-Feng Lee

Department of Business Administration


National Kaohsiung University of Applied Sciences

Abstract

A procedure is in September 2008, a wave of financial tsunami invaded all


over the world, and global major economies had commenced bailout actions
for their economics. In addition, the QE policy promulgated by The Board of
Governors of the Federal Reserve System, U.S., opened the outline of the
Quantitative Easing Monetary Policy, as well as the monetary policies
promulgated by those central banks in Europe and Japan. Hot Money swept
across global emerging markets; however, within the QE policy, only slight
asset bubble phenomenon occurred but serious inflation. This study applied
the historic concept of New Institutional Economics as the method, and used
the aspects of governmental organization, economic organization and
ideology to discuss the relationship between the monetary system change and
inflation. Moreover, it was based on the viewpoint of historic events to
investigate the relationship between Nationalist Governments monetary
policy and inflation in 1920s~1940s. Based on the research results, this study
proposed the influence of monetary policy on peoples livelihood and
economy as governments assessment reference to implement the monetary
policy. In addition, the research resulted showed that, firstly, in current
monetary systems, the probability of recurring the boiling inflation is very
low, since the monetary system had learned from the painful lesson in history,
it has been improved and corrected the systems defect. Secondly, if nations
could build a stable and flexible monetary system, an inflation could also
yield active and positive effect, and a moderate inflation might be beneficial
for the economic growth.
Keywords: New institutional economics, monetary policy, inflation
ii

iii

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................................................ 1
.................................. 1
........................................ 4
........................................ 5
............................................ 6
.................. 6
............................... 16
........................................... 24
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......................... 42
......................................... 47
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....................................... 50
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.................................................. 53
.................................................... 57
.................................................... 58

iv

2-1 ........... 12
2-2 ................................... 14
2-3 ....................... 18
2-4 ................................... 22
2-5 ............................. 23
3-1 ................................. 26
4-1 ..................................... 36
4-2 ..................... 44

v

1-1 .................................. 5
2-1 ................................ 7
2-2 ............................. 15
2-3 ................................... 17
2-4 ................................... 22

vi

2008 9
QE

(2014)
1

:

(2010)


(New Classical Economics)(Keynesian
Economics)

(2013)
(1991)

3
17 10.5

(North1995)

20 40

1.
2.

3.

1-1


Menger

(2014)


10

(1979)

6
2-1
:

(Milton Friedman):

7
(Inflation is always and everywhere a monetary
phenomenon)
MV=PT
P
T
PT
M
V

(2008):?
?(M)(P)
(
2014)

(2011)
Phillip Cagan(1956):
50% 50%1

1
(2014)
20
8

157
87 118
2
2011
621

739

(1939)
4

: 6
28%7
1,256,340
8

2

3

4
( 968 ~1022 )( 968 ~1022 )
5

6

7

8

9

(2014)

(2012):

125
200
36


(2013)
( 1042
):

(2011)

( 1260 )

9
(1042 )
10
( 1261 ):

10 11


( 1374 )
1000
( 1393 ) 160 ( 1397
) 71 12( 1436 )

(2002) (2012) (2013)


(2013)(2103)

10

11

12
(2012)P135~137
11

(
)

2-1
:(2002)

12

(2002)


1816
1873

2 3
(
2008)

13



1894 28.85 1.00 1917 60.17 0.94 54.81 0.98
1895 28.84 1.00 1918 57.69 0.96 53 0.97
1896 49.59 1.72 1919 56.92 0.99 52.1 0.98
1897 42.58 0.86 1920 75.51 1.33 65.64 1.26
1898 49.38 1.16 1921 81.37 1.08 69.99 1.07
1899 40.95 0.83 1922 95.37 1.17 80.43 1.15
1900 37.36 0.91 1923 99.17 1.04 84.31 1.05
1901 37.17 0.99 1924 89.08 0.90 80.5 0.95
1902 53.45 1.44 1925 96.77 1.09 83.26 1.03
1903 53.93 1.01 1926 123.99 1.28 105.95 1.27
1904 45.77 0.85 1927 123.21 0.99 113.71 1.07
1905 38.51 0.84 1928 96.48 0.78 100.21 0.88
1906 48 1.25 1929 114.16 1.18 109.27 1.09
1907 62.98 1.31 1930 143.1 1.25 136.34 1.25
1908 59.39 0.94 1931 104.76 0.73 105.11 0.77
1909 50.12 0.84 1932 100 0.95 100 0.95
1910 60.82 1.21 56.63 1.00 1933 100 1.00 100 1.00
1911 66.63 1.10 61.82 1.09 1934 96.08 0.96 104.89 1.05
1912 63.56 0.95 58.04 0.94 1935 96.64 1.01 105.9 1.01
1913 62.73 0.99 53.33 0.92 1936 102.59 1.06 106.6 1.01
1914 58.46 0.93 52.92 0.99 1937 113.01 1.10 114.02 1.07
1915 65.84 1.13 56.18 1.06 1938 119.62 1.06 119.48 1.05
1916 64.3 0.98 55.78 0.99 1939 178.5 1.49 168.39 1.41
13
1-2
:(2008)

13

14


200

150

100

50

0
1894
1896
1898
1900
1902
1904
1906
1908
1910
1912
1914
1916
1918
1920
1922
1924
1926
1928
1930
1932
1934
1936
1938
2-2
: 2

(
1999)

15


14

(2014)

14
Lydia 7 546
: 660

16
2-3
:(2014)

Greshams Law

17

4

2-3

15

15
(2014):
18

()

(1983)

16

16

19


(1983)

150 100

(1991)

140

(1991)(2006):

20


(1983)(2006) 1873
17
( 5)

18

:

(
)19

17
1873
18

19
(2006):p.29
21
2-4
:(2008)


80

70 71.3

60
53.28 54.9
50


40 40 38.54
35 30
30

22
20
15 15.31
10

2-4
: 2-4

22

2-5
:(2006)

1937


:
::
:
:
(2010)

23

()


2014
1
2
3
4
5
6
Flick1992


24

1989

(Kendrick
1990)

:
20
:
(Schutt2012)(history event research)
(history process research)
(cross-
sectional comparative research)
(comparative historical
reseach)(

20
(1995): 3
25
2015)

3-1
:(2014)



institution

2001

26

constructivepostmodern2001
:

()()

(
2014)

27

(1)(2)
(3)
(North1994)

(1995)?(1994)
: (comparative
advantage violence)

(contract
theory)

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explotation theory)



(
)

28
()
(North
1994)

()

(North1994)

(Patron-
Client relationship)

29

:
()
North(1990)

1997

2001

(1)
(2)
(3)
(4)

30

31

(1895 )(1911 )

()21

North(1994)

21

367
32




1912


22

23


(1)
(2)

(3)24

22
369
23
227
24

33

93.5374%

(2011)



25

26


27

140

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26
p98
27
p121

34

1933 1935

19141936

28

28
P191
35
()
1850 41,469
1887 37,763.6
1914 45,524.3

1936 50,078.9
1949 54,167
4-1
(2007)

1861 1895
()

36

1930

1924 8

29


(1)
(2)
(3)

(1)
(2)(3)
(4)

29
32
2011 10
37

30
32,531,921

31

1933

30
p231
31

38

1933 3 1
32

33

34

1918 2 5
1933

32
: 232 ,1933 3 1 ,:
,,
,,
,
23.493448 33.S99
23.493448/33.599=0.6992305()0.6992305 2
1/4%()0.159327()0.715
,(1933 4 5 ):,,
,,,,.
,,,
,,,,
,,,,
,,,
,,,,
,
33
27 88/6
34

39
128 30
35

1935
36

(Milton Friedman):

37

40%
1930
3 1

38

35
1999 27
36
1934
()
37
132
38

40

39

40

1930 70%
41

39
1935 11 4

()
40
1994
23
41
2007
41

42Douglass North
43

(Milton Friedman)

44
1937

45

19 151.22 1
2000 2 1937 1939

2 8780 1314 4000 1


8000
46

14
1939 22.96

42
Douglass North & Robert Pual Thomas 2016 1
P243
43

44
132
45

46
: 2008
42
1939
47
100.30

1939
48
100.30 1945 36,840,045 367,298

1939

20%
10%

25%
66.6%49

47
2007P15
48
52
49

43
50
4-2

50
1945~1952

2006
44

1948
51
1930 14,140,968
374,762,200

1. 40%

0.22217 20

2. 300 1948
12 20



52
3. 9
30

51
2007/12P15
52
1 200 1 3 2
45
4.

5. 8 19 53


1930 9.26
300
20 6000

1949 7
54

2 ()
53

54
1949 7 3
7 4
1 1
23.493448 9 1
151050100 7 8
()

46

()55
1930

30
North1994

(Keith Jenkins)

55

47

1980

(Douglass North)

(
)


(Milton Friedman)

48


1930

56
1931 1933 1934

56
132
49

2008
QE1
1.75 QE2
6000 QE3
57
400
30%
20%
10%

58

57
QE3 2015 9 13
58
2016/5/16
50

(2015)

1989

(1974)(2006)(2006)

2040

51

20 40

52

1. (2001)
368~70
2. (2002)
273~80
3. (2007):

4. (2008)
35~9
5. (2008)
6. (1997)
36 111~22
7. (2014):
8. (1948)
10193~222
9. (2010)3
19~21
10. (2011)
480~85
11. (1989)
17438
12. (1991)
20183~199
13. (1994)
23167~194
14. (2005)
15. (2011)80~81
16. (2014):

17. (2013)Economic Research13369~400
18. (1995):

53
19. (2008):
3583~88
20. (2014):
21. (2013):
22. (2007)60
11~12
23. (2013)::

24. (2001)11
145~162
25. (2014):
26. (2013)
992
27. ((2012)
28. (1042 )
29. (2008 )
8~14
30. (2014):
31. (2014):
32. (2002) 4 18
40~43
33. ((2013):
34. 2011
41 4670
35. (2013)
22107
36. (2013)15
117~118
37. (2013)

38. (2013)(1934~1936)

39. (2014)

54

40. (2012)P135~137
41. (2010):
42. (2013):

43. (2014)
Copula

44. (2005)1945-1952
:37273~324
45. (2010)
8123~139
46. (2006)
2006125~133
47. (2007)
33157~163
48. (2001)
12157~177
49. (2006):
50. (1999)
51~38
51. (1979):
52. (1997):
53. (2009)2009
91
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in the quantity theory of money. Friedman Milton(ed.)
Chicago,University of Chicago press.
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3. Douglass NorthStructure and change in economic history(1995)
:
4. Douglass North & Robert Paul ThomasThe rise of the western

55
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7. Kendrick, S., Straw, P., McCrone, D. (1990). Introduction. In S.
Kendrick, P. Straw, &D. McCrone (Eds.), Interpreting the past,
understanding the present.London, UK: Palgrave Macmillan,11-12.
8. Keith JenkinsRe-thinking history(2011 ):

56

26 59

59
:
57

1895

60

:
()

60
:
58

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