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Stock Arbitrage PDF
Stock Arbitrage PDF
Stock Arbitrage:
3 Strategies
Little Rock - Fayetteville
October 22, 2015
2
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Arbitrage
Arbitrage is taking advantage of a price distortion in two
related stocks, ETFs, or futures markets. When you are
both long and short two stocks, its called pairs trading.
You can find candidates by observing the charts, and
knowing that there is a fundamental similarity. It can be
banking stocks, technology, or non-ferrous metals.
It tries to capture profits by entering a trade when prices
have moved apart and exiting when they move back
together.
It is also called stat-arb because it is mathematical
(statistical) arbitrage. It is also Relative Value Arbitrage
because there are no absolute price levels at which we
trade, only relative differences.
Typically, arbitrage doesnt care about the trend of
prices.
3 Variations
Well look at 3 different techniques to profit from
these anomalies in price:
o The standard deviation
o The Stress indicator
o A long-only with an index hedge
This will reduce both risk and returns, but it will reduce risk
more.
Volatility was over 100% in 2001
and 2008, with large differences
Profit/Loss with vol filter (2 Hong Kong banks)
Trading during high risk does not have a good payout.
If you reject high volatility, another pair can produce profits.
Method 2: The Stress Indicator
Calculate the 8-day stochastic of PFE
Calculate the 8-day stochastic of NVS
Let X = PFE stochastic - NVS stochastic
The Stress Indicator is the stochastic of X
If we use the arbitrage signals but only take the long positions
we can increase the per share returns from 3 to 30.
600 200
400 0
200
-200
0
-400
-200
-400 -600
-600 -800
There are very few cases where the stop is hit, and
a 15% loss in a portfolio of 10 pairs is only a 1.5% loss
in the portfolio. Given the infrequent occurrence,
thats a manageable loss for me.
A Word About Creating A Portfolio
perry@perrykaufman.com
perry.kaufman@kaufmananalytics.com